Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

ancapailldorcha

As an aside, is there anyone here planning on attending the march in London on Saturday?

Bob24

flutered wrote: »

on other fourms the thinking is, the uk owns it, therefore they put up the hard border, wto says so

On Brexit day the EC would be on the phone with the Irish government requesting border checks at the edge of the single market. As far as I understand no one would be asking the UK to do anything however. Someone could raise a complaint with the WTO saying their products are discriminated against comparatively to Irish one’s, but the outcome would be uncertain and it would take years before any actual practical impact hits the UK.

Calina

Bob it is called the EU, not the EC. EC was superceded a few years back.

Ireland is the EU. Border controls will be necessary in the absence of other arrangements because it will be in Ireland's interest to apply them if for example, the UK cannot be trusted on regulation or rules of origin.

Border goes up because of Brexit. Underlying cause are UK actions, not Irish or EU actions

An Claidheamh

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I don't prticulrly like FG because of their right wing economic policies, but the idea that they are a "West Brit" party has always been essentially baseless.

In the early years, they forced Irish people to swear allegiance to the British crown, a pretty descipable act.

They collaborated with the Brits in the North, more due to cowardice.

Admittedly in the last few decades, their individuals but not all, have been apologists for loyalists and British policy in the North.

Last year, you had FG politicians wearing poppies, telling us we should be subjects of the Queen of England and demanding people take off Easter Lillies in the Dáil.

The newer fgers are less likely to engage in that nonsense - generally. (though they occasionally embrace it)

The Irish Times dropped snobbish hypocritical unionism and replaced it with snobbish hypocritical pretend liberalism - when it suited them.

Leroy42

Bob24, I don't quite understand what point you are trying to make.

Yes, if the UK crash out then a hard border will be required. If, as the UK insist, the UK refuse to do that on their side, and tbh even if they do, Ireland have no choice but to comply with the rules and regulations of the CU and SM and maintain a border.

The only decision open to Ireland is whether or not to stay in the EU. By a massive majority, people in Ireland want to stay in the EU.

You seem to be suggesting that it will be our decision, and that Ireland will be held responsible for that decision. But in reality we have no decision to make, only to carry out the rules based on the decision that the UK have made. It is entirely down to the decision that the UK have, and continue, to make that a border will be raised.

Of course you will have certain Brexiteet supporters and possibly the DUP that blame the Irish, but anyone with any appreciation of the actual events, and history, will consider this to be entirely at the fault of the UK.

Hurrache

An Claidheamh wrote: »

In the early years, they forced Irish people to swear allegiance to the British crown, a pretty descipable act.

They collaborated with the Brits in the North, more due to cowardice.

Admittedly in the last few decades, their individuals but not all, have been apologists for loyalists and British policy in the North.

Last year, you had FG politicians wearing poppies, telling us we should be subjects of the Queen of England and demanding people take off Easter Lillies in the Dáil.

The newer fgers are less likely to engage in that nonsense - generally. (though they occasionally embrace it)

The Irish Times dropped snobbish hypocritical unionism and replaced it with snobbish hypocritical pretend liberalism - when it suited them.

I must have Rip Van Winkled.

Imreoir2

An Claidheamh wrote: »

In the early years, they forced Irish people to swear allegiance to the British crown, a pretty descipable act.

They collaborated with the Brits in the North, more due to cowardice.

Admittedly in the last few decades, their individuals but not all, have been apologists for loyalists and British policy in the North.

Last year, you had FG politicians wearing poppies, telling us we should be subjects of the Queen of England and demanding people take off Easter Lillies in the Dáil.

The newer fgers are less likely to engage in that nonsense - generally. (though they occasionally embrace it)

The Irish Times dropped snobbish hypocritical unionism and replaced it with snobbish hypocritical pretend liberalism - when it suited them.

They also had a forighn policy that led Ireland to be seen as "the restless dominion" which seriously disrupted the declining British empire, declared a Republic and brought Ireland out of the Commonwealth.

Junkyard Tom

Nody wrote: »

Think of a truck you've seen in the last week; can you tell if that got goods coming from NI or UK?

Well there would have to be checks on commercial vehicles to rigorously enforce a pre-clearance and trusted trader system for legitimate cross-border activity.

Nody

Bob24 wrote: »

On Brexit day the EC would be on the phone with the Irish government requesting border checks at the edge of the single market. As far as I understand no one would be asking the UK to do anything however. Someone could raise a complaint with the WTO saying their products are discriminated against comparatively to Irish one’s, but the outcome would be uncertain and it would take years before any actual practical impact hits the UK.

The VAT fraud however will hit them on day 1; want to make an easy million+? Buy a truck full of booze & cigarettes in Ireland, get the duties back due to export and drive it over the border UK don't want to control and "forget" to declare your load. And that's one of the easiest once without going into chemicals etc.

Bob24

Leroy42 wrote: »

Bob24, I don't quite understand what point you are trying to make.

Yes, if the UK crash out then a hard border will be required. If, as the UK insist, the UK refuse to do that on their side, and tbh even if they do, Ireland have no choice but to comply with the rules and regulations of the CU and SM and maintain a border.

The only decision open to Ireland is whether or not to stay in the EU. By a massive majority, people in Ireland want to stay in the EU.

You seem to be suggesting that it will be our decision, and that Ireland will be held responsible for that decision. But in reality we have no decision to make, only to carry out the rules based on the decision that the UK have made. It is entirely down to the decision that the UK have, and continue, to make that a border will be raised.

Of course you will have certain Brexiteet supporters and possibly the DUP that blame the Irish, but anyone with any appreciation of the actual events, and history, will consider this to be entirely at the fault of the UK.

The point I am making is that it isn’t no less legitimate for the UK to want to maintain the integrity of their territory after Brexit than it is for the EU to want to maintain the integrity of the single market.

We, the Republic will be stuck between our to contradictory wishes to be part of the single market and have no border checks with the UK.

And we, will have to pick our poison and give up one of those. There is no more reson for the UK to compromise its territorial integrity than there is for the EU to compromise the single market in order for us to get what we want (free access to both). So it would absolutely be our decision to favour the single market and reinstate the border.

And what I’ve been asking is will any Irish politician want to go take the responsibility of ordering that change and going down in history as the man who reintroduced border checks on this island?

Anthracite

Imreoir2 wrote: »

They also had a forighn policy that led Ireland to be seen as "the restless dominion" which seriously disrupted the declining British empire, declared a Republic and brought Ireland out of the Commonwealth.

Mere factual details when confronted with Claidheamh's stream of strong feelings.

brickster69

You seem to be suggesting that it will be our decision, and that Ireland will be held responsible for that decision. But in reality we have no decision to make, only to carry out the rules based on the decision that the UK have made.

Correct Ireland has no say at all what happens to it's border. It is not in Ireland's control in reality.

charlie14

Bob24 wrote: »

We want two international agreements: one with the EU to be a member state and one with the UK to not have a formal border. If being part of one agreement means breaching the other deal, that is a choice we have to make. So choosing to remain in the EU single market would also be choosing to reintroduce a border on the island. And choosing to keep a borderless ireland would be choosing to leave the single market.

We already have an agreement with the EU on being a member state. We also have an agreement with the UK, also co-signed by the EU, not to have a formal border on the island. The Good Friday Agreement.



If the UK through choosing a hard exit and thus breaking their commitment I cannot see where because of that we should be expected to break our commitments as a member state because the UK makes a decision it no longer wants to be a member and ignore an international agreement it signed up to.

Bob24

brickster69 wrote: »

You seem to be suggesting that it will be our decision, and that Ireland will be held responsible for that decision. But in reality we have no decision to make, only to carry out the rules based on the decision that the UK have made.

Correct Ireland has no say at all what happens to it's border. It is not in Ireland's control in reality.

Of course it would be our decision. Another decision would be to leave the EU and remain in a border free agreement with the UK, so we absolutely would have a choice.

It happens that until now we were lucky that 2 border free areas we wanted to be part of were overlapping. If it stops being the case it is our decision to decide which one we want to remain in.

And again I think while of course public support would at least fro now clearly be in favour of choosing the EU, the responsibility establishing border posts would be a very hard one to take for any Irish politicians ... so I think this think is not clear yet and there could still be surprises.

We're not leaving the EU.

Imreoir2

brickster69 wrote: »

Correct Ireland has no say at all what happens to it's border. It is not in Ireland's control in reality.

Of course we have a choice. We can choose to leave the EU Customs Union and Single Market, or we can choose to stay and abide be the rules of the customs union and single market.

Obviously we won't be leaving the EU, so having made our choice, we must implement it.

Bob24

charlie14 wrote: »

If the UK through choosing a hard exit and thus breaking their commitment

With a hard Brexit which commitment towards us would the UK be breaking? They never said they want to reintroduce a border in Ireland, they said they want to leave the EU.

charlie14 wrote: »

I cannot see where because of that we should be expected to break our commitments as a member state because the UK makes a decision it no longer wants to be a member

The is correct, it is our choice and we are not expected to be forced to do or not do anything. But similarly if the UK wants to leave the EU I cannot see why they should be expected to no do it because we want to be part of both borderless areas.

I am trying to see both sides of the story here. The consequence of what you are saying is that in your opinion the Good Friday agreement committed the UK to never leaving the common market. I don't think it is a reasonable inference to make.

Call me Al

Bob24 wrote: »

Of course it would be our decision. Another decision would be to leave the EU and remain in a border free agreement with the UK, so we absolutely would have a choice.

It happens that until now we were lucky that 2 border free areas we wanted to be part of were overlapping. If it stops being the case it is our decision to decide which one we want to remain in.

And again I think while of course public support would at least fro now clearly be in favour of choosing the EU, the responsibility establishing border posts would be a very hard one to take for any Irish politicians ... so I think this think is not clear yet and there could still be surprises.

It really isn't a choice. It would be economic suicide to allow ourselves to once again hitch out caravan up to the careering British bulldog who thinks it's about to forge a new future for ITSELF.

If it has to be done it will be done, but the catastrophe that will unfold in GB will have the Uk govt (whoever that may be) back at the table to resolve the matter quickly.

The UK can indeed leave the EU without leaving the EEA AND Custom's Union, which would mean that a hard border could be avoided on this island. It could even leave the Custom's Union and remain within the EEA and have a Norway/Sweden style soft border on this island.

If however the UK chooses the path that in leaving the EU it is leaving all 3 of; the EU, the Custom's Union AND the EEA (Single Market) then they have dictated the terms that they are leaving on, and those terms involve the creation of a hard border.

That is their choice. Their government's interpretation of the referendum. Their government's almost totally unilateral decision making process.

Any pretence that not arriving at a solution in that scenario has anything to do with us is just that, pretence.

prawnsambo

Bob24 wrote: »

With a hard Brexit which commitment towards us would the UK be breaking? They never said they want to reintroduce a border.

The is correct, it is our choice and we are not expected to do anything. But similarly if the UK wants to leave the EU I cannot see why they should be expected to no do it because we want to be part of both borderless areas.

I am trying to see both sides of the story here. The consequence of what you are saying is that in your opinion the Good Friday agreement committed the UK to never leaving the common market. I don't think it is a reasonable inference to make.

No. The British Government have committed to not changing the border. They committed to this in the GFA and also in the EU Withdrawal Act. So they can leave the EU, but they must do so in a way that protects the commitments they have made. Options have been given to them. It's up to them to choose one and implement it.

The irony here is that as one of the two government signatories to the GFA who required the EU to guarantee that it would do nothing to change the nature of the border, it is now in the position of doing exactly that.

Bob24

Deleted User wrote: »

If however the UK chooses the path that in leaving the EU it is leaving all 3 of; the EU, the Custom's Union AND the EEA (Single Market) then they have dictated the terms that they are leaving on, and those terms involve the creation of a hard border.

I'm sorry but that is incorrect or at least incomplete.

The fact that they want to leave AND the fact that Ireland wants to remain in the EU AND the fact that the EU expects Ireland to implement border checks at the edge of the common market is what involves the creation of a hard border.

The deadlock is that we want to be part of 2 borderless areas and those areas pose conflicting requirements for us.

Bob24

prawnsambo wrote: »

No. The British Government have committed to not changing the border. They committed to this in the GFA and also in the EU Withdrawal Act. So they can leave the EU, but they must do so in a way that protects the commitments they have made. Options have been given to them. It's up to them to choose one and implement it.

I could rephrased the exact same thing from the British point of view:

The EU have committed to not changing the border. So they can negotiate Brexit, but they must do so in a way that protects the commitments they have made. Options have been given to them (the Chequers plan). It's up to them to implement it.

While some Brits might see it that way, my statement above is plain ridiculous of course as because a proposal was made by the UK doesn't mean the EU should automatically accept it. And the reverse statement is no more valid.

bilston

So just the 18 point gap between those who would vote Remain and those who would vote for Brexit in a second referendum in the UK according to the latest Eurobarometer opinion poll

Remain 53%
Leave 35%
Undecided 12%

When will the British government wake up and realise they are putting everyone through a lot of pain for something that the majority of people in the UK don't even want?

Bob24

Bob24 wrote: »

I'm sorry but that is incorrect or at least incomplete.

The fact that they want to leave AND the fact that Ireland wants to remain in the EU AND the fact that the EU expects Ireland to implement border checks at the edge of the common market is what involves the creation of a hard border.

The deadlock is that we want to be part of 2 borderless areas and those areas pose conflicting requirements for us.

A bizarre effort at attempting to 'shift the blame' - consider who and who alone is making a change to the status quo.

Ireland have not changed their position about their relationship with the UK. It is the UK who have unilaterally revoked their membership of the EU, to the detriment of their relationship with Ireland. I can't recall Ireland making any effort whatsoever to upset the careful balance that we have had at the border since 1999 (though in reality 1992 with Single Market creation)?

charlie14

Bob24 wrote: »

With a hard Brexit which commitment towards us would the UK be breaking? They never said they want to reintroduce a border.



The is correct, it is our choice. But on the other end if the UK wants to leave the EU I cannot see why they should be banned from doing so because we want to be part of both borderless areas.

I am trying to see both sides of the story here. The consequence of what you are saying is that in your opinion the Good Friday agreement committed the UK to never leaving the common market. I don't think it is a reasonable inference to make.

If you are serious about seeing it from both sides, here`s one for you.


If it was the RoI leaving the EU rather than the UK with a GFA that all three of us had singed, do you think they would be happy with no border where we could flood their market with any EU unregulated goods we wished ?

sink

Bob24 wrote: »

I'm sorry but that is incorrect or at least incomplete.

The fact that they want to leave AND the fact that Ireland wants to remain in the EU AND the fact that the EU expects Ireland to implement border checks at the edge of the common market is what involves the creation of a hard border.

The deadlock is that we want to be part of 2 borderless areas and those areas pose conflicting requirements for us.

You seem to be framing the issue incorrectly for some reason. Ireland does not want to be part of 2 borderless areas, it only wants to be part of one borderless area, the EU. What Ireland wants from the UK is at the very least for NI to be part of the same borderless area with the rest of the island. The UK wants to withdraw NI from the borderless area that encompasses the rest of the island.

Bob24

charlie14 wrote: »

If you are serious see it from both sides here`s one for you.


If it was the RoI leaving the EU rather than the UK with a GFA that all three of us had singed, do you think they would be happy with no border where we could flood their market with any EU unregulated goods we wished ?

Of course they wouldn't. And they would have to choose between leaving the EU and remaining in a borderless agreement with us. The difference being that of course the UK would have more ways to pressure us that we have to pressure them, but that is just realpolitiks and the respective size of our countries.

kingbhome

If theres a hard border, if one is from the but has been living in the south for a decade will they be able to cross the border back and forth. What will happen if they had children n teh south, will they be able to cross the border with them.

Bob24

sink wrote: »

What Ireland wants from the UK is at the very least for NI to be part of the same borderless area with the rest of the island.

So on top of the EU we want to be in a borderless area with part of the UK. As I said part of 2 borderless areas at the same time.

Junkyard Tom

kingbhome wrote: »

If theres a hard border, if one is from the but has been living in the south for a decade will they be able to cross the border back and forth. What will happen if they had children n teh south, will they be able to cross the border with them.

The movement of people should not be affected.