Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Wheres Me Jumper?

Rory28 wrote: »

I was watching a few James O'Brien clips on youtube. One of his callers made this point and James had a great answer. Is this what people voted for? Did the people who voted to leave the EU but stay in the single market vote for this? Did the people who voted to become like the Swiss or the Norwegians etc etc.

A second ref is the only decent thing to do to clear this mess up.

i beg to differ.
a 2nd ref will only serve to make a bigger mess out of what is clearly a fiasco.
sometimes when you're in a hole...

Kermit.de.frog

Theresa May is coming to Dublin tomorrow to sort out Leo apparently.

Wheres Me Jumper?

marno21 wrote: »

Is it not perfectly acceptable for there to be a potential shift from one side to the other? After all the original referendum was a 52/48 result, and since then people have actually learned what they were voting for, there was a demographic shift, and it became clear that the binary referendum of 2016 had the remain option, where remainers voted for one common result, the status quo, and leavers voted for a wide spectrum of leave scenarios which they themselves cannot even agree on as seen on the C4 debate the last day (no deal/May deal/renegotiated deal or whether CU/SM memebership is wanted).

If it was a case of we should rerun the referendum then why was the 2016 referendum allowed when it is effectively a rerun of the 1975 referendum? Was the will of the people in 1975 not enough?

but as demonstrated by the myriad of proposals here, the 2nd vote proponents cant even agree amongst themselves what should be on the ballot paper, even how the vote should be formulated.

An Ciarraioch

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

marno21 wrote: »

Is it not perfectly acceptable for there to be a potential shift from one side to the other? After all the original referendum was a 52/48 result, and since then people have actually learned what they were voting for, there was a demographic shift, and it became clear that the binary referendum of 2016 had the remain option, where remainers voted for one common result, the status quo, and leavers voted for a wide spectrum of leave scenarios which they themselves cannot even agree on as seen on the C4 debate the last day (no deal/May deal/renegotiated deal or whether CU/SM memebership is wanted).

If it was a case of we should rerun the referendum then why was the 2016 referendum allowed when it is effectively a rerun of the 1975 referendum? Was the will of the people in 1975 not enough?

but as demonstrated by the myriad of proposals here, the 2nd vote proponents cant even agree amongst themselves what should be on the ballot paper, even how the vote should be formulated.

You put the three options, and the top two go through to a runoff, as happens in France.

Wheres Me Jumper?

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

You put the three options, and the top two go through to a runoff, as happens in France.

thank you. for demonstrating my point.

LeinsterDub

Repeating her calls for a border poll during Leaders’ Questions, McDonald said uniting Ireland would remove the issue of the backstop.

https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-border-poll-4388094-Dec2018/

SF calling a border poll , this seems like very poor timing to me. This just gives the DUP ammo to claim that SF just want to see a hard brexit to bring about a UI

Kermit.de.frog

Newsnight blog...

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1072520557403537408

Ireland is member of EU, that's why it has an abnormal say in this process...

Wheres Me Jumper?

why not have 5 options, with the top 3 going through to a runoff, followed by another runoff of the top 2?

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Newsnight blog...

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1072520557403537408

Ireland is member of EU, that's why it has an abnormal say in this process...

Theres nothing abnormal about it to the rest of the world the english just aren't used to having us at an equal or stronger position at the negotiating table than they are

LeinsterDub

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Newsnight blog...

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1072520557403537408

Ireland is member of EU, that's why it has an abnormal say in this process...

To these peoples minds the EU is either run by the Germans or the Germans and the French and they simply can't grasp why the EU is backing up one of it's own .

First Up

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

why not have 5 options, with the top 3 going through to a runoff, followed by another runoff of the top 2?

I think you just demonstrated a lot of other peoples' point.

robinph

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

You put the three options, and the top two go through to a runoff, as happens in France.

Well one option is remain then with 48% of the vote from the first time round, the leavers now get to pick which option they want and put that up against the remain option.

devnull

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1072520557403537408[/url]

Over the last few months Tory MPs have asked in private how the Irish Republic can believe its relationship with the EU trumps its relationship with the UK.

More British arrogance on display there, talking about how can we think the EU is more important to us than the British are, you'd swear that they were a massive superpower like China or the US the way thy go on.

Reality check is badly needed.

ancapailldorcha

One-liner deleted.

lawred2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-border-poll-4388094-Dec2018/

SF calling a border poll , this seems like very poor timing to me. This just gives the DUP ammo to claim that SF just want to see a hard brexit to bring about a UI

didn't really call for a border poll did they?

they said a no deal crash out situation pushes a border poll forward..

hard to argue surely

Wheres Me Jumper?

robinph wrote: »

Well one option is remain then with 48% of the vote from the first time round, the leavers now get to pick which option they want and put that up against the remain option.

i'm losing count of these options now.
and i thought we were here to simplify matters:rolleyes:

LeinsterDub

lawred2 wrote: »

didn't really call for a border poll did they?

they said a no deal crash out situation pushes a border poll forward..

hard to argue surely

She told reporters this morning that in the case of crash-out deal, a border poll should be called

But I hear what you're saying she didn't out and out say lets have a vote now.

tuxy

"This simply cannot stand," the one-time moderniser told me. "The Irish really should know their place."

The problem for people like this is that Ireland does know it's place in the EU something the UK government always had trouble with.

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Newsnight blog...

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1072520557403537408

Ireland is member of EU, that's why it has an abnormal say in this process...

I'm curious to know what they think our place is (apart from being part of the team of 27).

Rory28

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I'm curious to know what they think our place is (apart from being part of the team of 27).

Under their thumb I would expect. It is especially outrageous considering one of their numbers threatened us with a blockade just last week. Priti silly all things considered.

briany

tuxy wrote: »

The problem for people like this is that Ireland does know it's place in the EU something the UK government always had trouble with.

Either this source is saying what they're saying out of ignorance or a desire to stoke up divisions with Ireland and make it seem more like it's ireland that is being wilfully intractable out of spite. Either way, the person's words should not be risen to. Does no-one any good.

Wheres Me Jumper?

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I'm curious to know what they think our place is (apart from being part of the team of 27).

we're not allowed to post vids here, but i'm sure you've seen the Fast Show characters Ralph the English country squire and the Irish groundsman Ted.

blanch152

lawred2 wrote: »

didn't really call for a border poll did they?

they said a no deal crash out situation pushes a border poll forward..

hard to argue surely

That is only true if you ignore the terms of the GFA, something they regularly accuse the UK of.

The truth is that Sinn Fein plays as hard and fast with the terms of the GFA as much as the British do. Here is the text of the provision:

"Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

So, firstly, neither Sinn Fein nor the Irish government have any role in deciding whether a border poll should take place - it is a matter solely for the Secretary of State. Secondly, it has to appear likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish for a united Ireland. "Likely" isn't a simple condition. It would require certainty over what type of united Ireland is likely to be on the table, it would require cross-community buy-in. The idea that nationalists outbreed unionists to 50% plus 1 and then sign up to a united Ireland under existing laws of the Republic would be abhorrent to the principles of the GFA where existing traditions are respected and integrated.

road_high

Well if they’re going to have a second referendum wouldn't they want to be getting on with it very promptly? 29th March is coming around very fast (not to repeat the obvious here).

ancapailldorcha

road_high wrote: »

Well if they’re going to have a second referendum wouldn't they want to be getting on with it very promptly? 29th March is coming around very fast (not to repeat the obvious here).

The EU has said that it would be willing to extend the A50 deadline for this. It's possible that any of the EU27 could throw a spanner in the works but that seems extremely unlikely.

Nody

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ireland is member of EU, that's why it has an abnormal say in this process...

Oh but the article is even more fun...

Over the last few months Tory MPs have asked in private how the Irish Republic can believe its relationship with the EU trumps its relationship with the UK.

They cite economic reasons (the Irish Republic's strong trading links with the UK) and the historical relationship.

The MPs do of course acknowledge that left a troubled legacy.

Yea; rose tinted glasses must have been selling good these last two years I guess. Then again that sounds very much like the "I'm not a racist because I got a black friend" kind of line as well.

Enzokk

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-border-poll-4388094-Dec2018/

SF calling a border poll , this seems like very poor timing to me. This just gives the DUP ammo to claim that SF just want to see a hard brexit to bring about a UI

But SF is not involved in any stage of negotiations nor are in power in any government to influence anything so they cannot influence what Brexit is achieved so I fail to see how the DUP could claim what Brexit they want.

Wheres Me Jumper?

road_high wrote: »

Well if they’re going to have a second referendum wouldn't they want to be getting on with it very promptly? 29th March is coming around very fast (not to repeat the obvious here).

well we need to discuss the various options first. if the contributors here are any indication it will probably require at least at least a few weeks Parliamentary debate i should think

An Ciarraioch

Rumours that 48 Tory letters either have been submitted, or are near the target.

road_high

On Mary Lou SF looking to call a border poll, this is completely destabilizing fantasy- it’s not the right time, polls I’ve seen are rarely above 30% support and adding in the chaos of brexit I fail to see how voters in the North would want at this time a double whammy of shocks. Reunification is a long game, adding it into the mix right now is like pouring petrol on the flames.