Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

J Mysterio

blanch152 wrote: »

That is only true if you ignore the terms of the GFA, something they regularly accuse the UK of.

The truth is that Sinn Fein plays as hard and fast with the terms of the GFA as much as the British do. Here is the text of the provision:

"Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

So, firstly, neither Sinn Fein nor the Irish government have any role in deciding whether a border poll should take place - it is a matter solely for the Secretary of State. Secondly, it has to appear likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish for a united Ireland. "Likely" isn't a simple condition. It would require certainty over what type of united Ireland is likely to be on the table, it would require cross-community buy-in. The idea that nationalists outbreed unionists to 50% plus 1 and then sign up to a united Ireland under existing laws of the Republic would be abhorrent to the principles of the GFA where existing traditions are respected and integrated.

Yes... And a crashout Brexit makes a United Ireland likely.

Wheres Me Jumper?

road_high wrote: »

On Mary Lou SF looking to call a border poll, this is completely destabilizing fantasy- it’s not the right time, polls I’ve seen are rarely above 30% support and adding in the chaos of brexit I fail to see how voters in the North would want at this time a double whammy of shocks. Reunification is a long game, adding it into the mix right now is like pouring petrol on the flames.

did you really expect SF to sooth the Tories Brexit woes?

VinLieger

road_high wrote: »

On Mary Lou SF looking to call a border poll, this is completely destabilizing fantasy- it’s not the right time, polls I’ve seen are rarely above 30% support and adding in the chaos of brexit I fail to see how voters in the North would want at this time a double whammy of shocks. Reunification is a long game, adding it into the mix right now is like pouring petrol on the flames.

Agree its not the right time but polling today showed 60% in favour if theres no deal

FrancieBrady

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-border-poll-4388094-Dec2018/

SF calling a border poll , this seems like very poor timing to me. This just gives the DUP ammo to claim that SF just want to see a hard brexit to bring about a UI

So what?
The DUP are to be protected from the mention of a UI?

I think we are past the 'please be sensitive to Unionists' phase. FG have finally seen the light there - that there is no point being 'nice'. Speak your mind honestly.

MrMusician18

briany wrote: »

Either this source is saying what they're saying out of ignorance or a desire to stoke up divisions with Ireland and make it seem more like it's ireland that is being wilfully intractable out of spite. Either way, the person's words should not be risen to. Does no-one any good.

While remarks like that further poison the well, they are for Tory grassroots consumption. Without attribution, the strategic value of such a statement is limited, though I'm sure the word is out privately regarding who said that.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Newsnight blog...

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1072520557403537408

Ireland is member of EU, that's why it has an abnormal say in this process...

Sir John Major is the real voice of the UK. The place has been hijacked by a bunch of right wing lunatics aided by the press, but I'd say their days are already numbered.

road_high

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

did you really expect SF to sooth the Tories Brexit woes?

It’s not about soothing their woes but a border poll is just a stupid idea right now.

lawred2

road_high wrote: »

On Mary Lou SF looking to call a border poll, this is completely destabilizing fantasy- it’s not the right time, polls I’ve seen are rarely above 30% support and adding in the chaos of brexit I fail to see how voters in the North would want at this time a double whammy of shocks. Reunification is a long game, adding it into the mix right now is like pouring petrol on the flames.

The Tory Brexit is the destabilizer. SF have had no hand act nor part in this entirely UK owned fiasco.

It's entirely valid to state that a no deal crash out will without doubt result in the North of Ireland being worse off and push a bother poll up the agenda.

But SF have zilch to do with destabilizing anything.

Wheres Me Jumper?

J Mysterio wrote: »

Yes... And a crashout Brexit makes a United Ireland likely.

possibility of a UI and the self-destruction of the Tories.
every Shinners wet dream i would have thought.

Wheres Me Jumper?

road_high wrote: »

It’s not about soothing their woes but a border poll is just a stupid idea right now.

not representing your electorate in parliament is a stupid idea.

Rory28

While I would love to see a United Ireland is it something we can afford?

keane2097

Christ Almighty, a senior Tory literally comes out with 'the Irish should know their place' and we still have meek Paddies who don't want to mention the prospect of a border poll in case we upset them!?

He's right about some of us knowing our place when it comes to self-flagellation anyway.

tuxy

Rory28 wrote: »

While I would love to see a United Ireland is it something we can afford?

Conflicting reports on this. The land border makes it cheaper to support all the problems NI has when compared to what the UK have to payout. But the cost is still unknown. I think it would be very costly at first but that should ease over time.
The most important thing to avoid is the reemergence of violence. I like the idea of a united Ireland but not at the expense of violence even on a smaller scale to the troubles.

Wheres Me Jumper?

keane2097 wrote: »

Christ Almighty, a senior Tory literally comes out with 'the Irish should know their place' and we still have meek Paddies who don't want to mention the prospect of a border poll in case we upset them!?

He's right about some of us knowing our place when it comes to self-flagellation anyway.

i wouldn't be knowing about that type of thing Sur.

Dyr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So what?
The DUP are to be protected from the mention of a UI?

I think we are past the 'please be sensitive to Unionists' phase. FG have finally seen the light there - that there is no point being 'nice'. Speak your mind honestly.

It depends on the audience, you give the DUP short shrift because its all the understand but you also speak past the politicians directly to their voters many of whom do actually have a ounce of cop on.

If there is a Brexit, we need to make partition go away fairly lively and everything from some sort of fudge to keep things as they are up to a United Ireland will be an option.

Wheres Me Jumper?

Rory28 wrote: »

While I would love to see a United Ireland is it something we can afford?

i think you need to get a grip Rory.
darkened room and a nice cuppa of herbal tea. Eh?

Rory28

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

i think you need to get a grip Rory.
darkened room and a nice cuppa of herbal tea. Eh?

What are you on about?

Dyr

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

possibility of a UI and the self-destruction of the Tories.
every Shinners wet dream i would have thought.

Break up of the United Kingdom too, for good measure.

Won't be much of a victory if the Loyalists wind up going boogaloo to any sustained degree

briany

Rory28 wrote: »

While I would love to see a United Ireland is it something we can afford?

There would be some outstanding questions about a UI. There's the financial aspect, and also the socio-political aspect. The new state would be taking on close to a million people who identify as British, and a good chunk of whom would have voted in the negative in the border poll. Their views and concerns would have to be accommodated. To not do this would make a mockery of the ideals that the flag of Ireland represented before it was co-opted in the North by those of a Republican bent. Those ideals being about peace between the two traditions.

It might be a bit of a hard pill to swallow for some Irish people, but we would at least have to extend the hand of compromise (whether it's slapped away is a different matter). Otherwise, a UI might not be that great of an idea, from a sociological standpoint at least.

prawnsambo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

While remarks like that further poison the well, they are for Tory grassroots consumption. Without attribution, the strategic value of such a statement is limited, though I'm sure the word is out privately regarding who said that.

Well whoever it was intended for, it's reached the people concerned. And like all comments about other nations and EU leaders that have also been broadcast, it will do the British government no good. It's just another in a long line of diplomatic faux pas that British politicians and newspapers have been guilty of for decades. People are tired of this crap.

mkdon

tuxy wrote: »

Conflicting reports on this. The land border makes it cheaper to support all the problems NI has when compared to what the UK have to payout. But the cost is still unknown. I think it would be very costly at first but that should ease over time.
The most important thing to avoid is the reemergence of violence. I like the idea of a united Ireland but not at the expense of violence even on a smaller scale to the troubles.

would reopen a can of worms and the troubles

LeinsterDub

Enzokk wrote: »

But SF is not involved in any stage of negotiations nor are in power in any government to influence anything so they cannot influence what Brexit is achieved so I fail to see how the DUP could claim what Brexit they want.

It's the North and Brexit , a little thing like facts aren't important

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So what?
The DUP are to be protected from the mention of a UI?

I think we are past the 'please be sensitive to Unionists' phase. FG have finally seen the light there - that there is no point being 'nice'. Speak your mind honestly.

I was more thinking don't interrupt when your enemy is making a mistake

hill16bhoy

briany wrote: »

There would be some outstanding questions about a UI. There's the financial aspect, and also the socio-political aspect. The new state would be taking on close to a million people who identify as British, and a good chunk of whom would have voted in the negative in the border poll. Their views and concerns would have to be accommodated. To not do this would make a mockery of the ideals that the flag of Ireland represented before it was co-opted in the North by those of a Republican bent. Those ideals being about peace between the two traditions.

It might be a bit of a hard pill to swallow for some Irish people, but we would at least have to extend the hand of compromise (whether it's slapped away is a different matter). Otherwise, a UI might not be that great of an idea, from a sociological standpoint at least.

Any prospective united Ireland would really require the following if violence was to be avoided;

i) a new national flag
ii) a new national anthem
iii) federal status for the six counties, ie. Stormont would be retained, but the six counties would also have Dail representation
iv) Some say for Britain in the affairs of the North, ie. a role reversal for Ireland and Britain as regards the current status
v) The six counties would retain Commonwealth membership and British passport eligibility
vi) You'd probably have to throw in a couple of other sweeteners - ie. Ulster Scots would be recognised under a language act (even if it's a joke of a "language"), the Northern Ireland football team would still exist.

Then there's the fate of the NHS there etc., which very few would want to give up.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

it would require cross-community buy-in.

No it wouldn't. 21st Century one-person-one-vote applies, there is no unionist veto. You know all this though and have been told it numerous times before and yet you persist. Why?

The idea that nationalists outbreed unionists to 50% plus 1 and then sign up to a united Ireland under existing laws of the Republic would be abhorrent to the principles of the GFA where existing traditions are respected and integrated.

Non sequitur. You know it's funny to read people getting their knickers in a twist over the idea that a sectarian statelet created to maintain a Protestant/Unionist majority gets dismantled by its demise.

You're literally hankering for the sectarian/political privileges that Protestants/Unionists no longer hold and never will again.

joe40

Is there a chance we have talked ourselves into a corner with the backstop. I fully appreciate the need to avoid a hard border as much as anyone (i'm a cross border worker).
However if this is the thing which precipitates a no deal brexit we are left with the hardest of all borders. I'm starting to lose my nerve here watching sterling go down. Purely selfish I know.

Wheres Me Jumper?

Bambi wrote: »

Break up of the United Kingdom too, for good measure.

Won't be much of a victory if the Loyalists wind up going boogaloo to any sustained degree

i know this is AH but even by its lowly standards, people here are really in danger of losing the run of themselves.
and people accused Brexiters of fear-mongering!

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So what?
The DUP are to be protected from the mention of a UI?

I think we are past the 'please be sensitive to Unionists' phase. FG have finally seen the light there - that there is no point being 'nice'. Speak your mind honestly.

It is not about the DUP, you need to get that fixation out of your mind.

It is about the provisions of the GFA. They are nowhere near being fulfilled, which means talk of a border poll is only provocative and aimed at hardening minds rather than reaching out.

It was a very poor judgment call by Mary Lou, but I suspect her heart wasn't in it and she was acting under orders from the boys in Belfast.

joe40

In terms of a united ireland I think it is entirely possible in the medium term but I think the best way would be a long planned and gradual transition. Maybe even a 10 or 20 year handover time. Similar to Hong kong going to chinese rule

Infini

LeinsterDub wrote: »

To these peoples minds the EU is either run by the Germans or the Germans and the French and they simply can't grasp why the EU is backing up one of it's own .

The irony is those shytetalkers think they're able to throw Ireland under the bus to suit their interest not realising that were actually driving the EU freight train and theyre the ones about to throw themselves under it for being thick idiots and not accepting reality.

FrancieBrady

LeinsterDub wrote: »

It's the North and Brexit , a little thing like facts aren't important



I was more thinking don't interrupt when your enemy is making a mistake

Brexit - When Ireland's political parties finally stopped being embarrassed to mention the desire to see this island united. Huge progress.