Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

judeboy101

joe40 wrote: »

Is there a chance we have talked ourselves into a corner with the backstop. I fully appreciate the need to avoid a hard border as much as anyone (i'm a cross border worker).
However if this is the thing which precipitates a no deal brexit we are left with the hardest of all borders. I'm starting to lose my nerve here watching sterling go down. Purely selfish I know.

There will be no border even if a no deal. Brits won't do it, Leo won't. It'll take years before wto drag us to court over it. Eu won't force us, they'll just make cta the border, we will get treated like uk til it get sorted.

Wheres Me Jumper?

Rory28 wrote: »

What are you on about?

apologies Rory, but i really think we are getting ahead of ourselves.
nothing personal.

Headshot

It's great being part a group like the EU that look after their members.

Great to hear our fellow europeans saying they are with our Irish friends.

Mr.Nice Guy

Rory28 wrote: »

While I would love to see a United Ireland is it something we can afford?

David McWilliams has argued in favour of it recently:

The UK’s annual subvention is just over €10bn annually. When seen from the perspective of the North, with its total GDP of under €50bn, it looks like a significant figure — but when seen from the perspective of Dublin, it is not insurmountable. The usual way financial markets assess whether national expenditure and debts are sustainable is the debt/GDP ratio. Northern Ireland would cost less than 4 per cent of the Irish Republic’s GDP annually. Of course, even this manageable figure would end up lower because the combined Irish GDP of the Republic combined with the North would be well over €300 billion, reducing the subvention as a percentage of income yet more. In pure budgetary terms, there is little doubt that the Republic’s economy could absorb the North and this is before the commercial dynamism of unification kicks in.

https://www.ft.com/content/7d5244a0-f22d-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d

dr.fuzzenstein

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

i know this is AH but even by its lowly standards, people here are really in danger of losing the run of themselves.
and people accused Brexiters of fear-mongering!

I think you took a wrong turn somewhere...

Call me Al

joe40 wrote: »

Is there a chance we have talked ourselves into a corner with the backstop. I fully appreciate the need to avoid a hard border as much as anyone (i'm a cross border worker).
However if this is the thing which precipitates a no deal brexit we are left with the hardest of all borders. I'm starting to lose my nerve here watching sterling go down. Purely selfish I know.

There's a hard border either way if they end up leaving in no deal or hard brexit, which is what many over there are clawing for.
The way I see it the Irish govt is as well to hold its nerve as these alternatives are 6 of one and half dozen of the other when it come to the border.
If the UK gov't has this magic technology they keep telling us about then what's the problem with the backstop?!

Strazdas

joe40 wrote: »

Is there a chance we have talked ourselves into a corner with the backstop. I fully appreciate the need to avoid a hard border as much as anyone (i'm a cross border worker).
However if this is the thing which precipitates a no deal brexit we are left with the hardest of all borders. I'm starting to lose my nerve here watching sterling go down. Purely selfish I know.

I was listening to a German commentator on Sky News this evening and he says the backstop probably is needed : he reckons British politics is so unstable and they are so divided that Ireland and the EU have no choice but to insist on the backstop (otherwise the Brexiteers could renege on it five minutes later).

A Dub in Glasgo

Call me Al wrote: »

There's a hard border either way if they end up leaving in no deal or hard brexit, which is what many over there are clawing for.
The way I see it the Irish govt is as well to hold its nerve as these alternatives are 6 of one and half dozen of the other when it come to the border.
If the UK gov't has this magic technology they keep telling us about then what's the problem with the backstop?!

That is correct, the only reason they want the backstop diluted us to ditch it later

Lollipop95

So is the postponed vote that was due to take place today now being shelved for another time? Is there an official date for it to be held again?

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1072553590777090049

Long and frank discussions...

I can see A50 being canceled or something along those lines.

The Rape of Lucretia

Even as a Remainer, and even today, Mays language betrays the inherent disconnect between the UK and the rest of Europe :

"Asked whether she had been told that the 48 letters to trigger a no confidence motion in her as Conservative leader had been received, May said: “No, I have been here in Europe dealing with the issue I have promised parliament I would be dealing with.”"

People from no other European country would use the term 'Europe' in that sense of it being a place, that is abroad.

bob mcbob

Interesting article in guardian. They separated the opinions into 4 different groups

- Diehards (enthusiastic Brexiteers)
- Cautious optimists (both leave and remainers)
- Accepting pragmatists (remainers who believe ref should be honoured)
- Devastated Pessimists (no benefit to be gained from leaving EU)

They are tracking views among these groups.

Last weekend the Diehards fell from a third to a quarter.
Devastated Pessimists increased by 5% and are now the largest group.

The only thing they agreed on was Mays deal was bad.

Full article here

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/11/brexit-study-finds-significant-decrease-in-diehard-leave-backers

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Newsnight blog...

It's somewhat comforting that the vast majority of replies are of the sensible "that sums up the problem with members of the Tory Party/what did the British think the Irish were going to do" type.

demfad

megatron989 wrote: »

I'd be worried that a second vote, one which offered an out, which would likely win depending on what media or poll you believe, would kick off some serious backlash.

The remain side have been unhappy thus far but they don't riot or kick off about it. If remain got a second shot and won out, even by a clear majority unlike the first vote, I'd think the Brexit supporting side would loose it's collective mind and throw an absolute wobbler. Something to make the french stop and look even.

They could only get 3k for their big leave means leave march this week.
Vast majority of UK population are easy going. If they were violent after defeat they would extinguish themselves.

Another referendum of revocation is the right thing to do.

Wheres Me Jumper?

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

John Major telling it like it is in a speech last night:

“...a hard border, now or at the end of a long transition period or at any time would be disastrous. Peace isn’t secure, it never is and any new border would be a focus for the wild men on the fringes to reactivate old disputes and hatreds that should be laid to rest forever.”

while Major was a decent bloke, he is yesterday's man.
i dont think the majority of young people in the Uk even know who he is, and nobody really cares what he thinks tbh.

tuxy

Lollipop95 wrote: »

So is the postponed vote that was due to take place today now being shelved for another time? Is there an official date for it to be held again?

Can be delayed until the 28 of March if she wants, if she is still in power.

MrMusician18

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Any prospective united Ireland would really require the following if violence was to be avoided;

i) a new national flag
ii) a new national anthem
iii) federal status for the six counties, ie. Stormont would be retained, but the six counties would also have Dail representation
iv) Some say for Britain in the affairs of the North, ie. a role reversal for Ireland and Britain as regards the current status
v) The six counties would retain Commonwealth membership and British passport eligibility
vi) You'd probably have to throw in a couple of other sweeteners - ie. Ulster Scots would be recognised under a language act (even if it's a joke of a "language"), the Northern Ireland football team would still exist.

Then there's the fate of the NHS there etc., which very few would want to give up.

A number of those changes would require constitutional amendments. They would never pass unless they were a requirement to win unification. The thing is, unification already has broad support in the present day republic without these sops to what would be less than a 10% minority in a unified island.

Unification will be on a Hong Kong/present day NI hybrid model.

Wheres Me Jumper?

tuxy wrote: »

Can be delayed until the 28 of March if she wants, if she is still in power.

do you really think she is "in power"
she may be PM, but she is effectively as much in power as Neil Kinnock was after he went frolicking on that beach in Brighton.
only difference is Kinnock didn't look as silly.

Dyr

blanch152 wrote: »

It is not about the DUP, you need to get that fixation out of your mind.

It is about the provisions of the GFA. They are nowhere near being fulfilled, which means talk of a border poll is only provocative and aimed at hardening minds rather than reaching out.

It was a very poor judgment call by Mary Lou, but I suspect her heart wasn't in it and she was acting under orders from the boys in Belfast.

There's a colossal lack of self awareness required for you to accuse someone of being fixated on a political party

Also, were you not the poster who started a thread about the GFA wherein you kept claiming there the brits could walk away from it whenever they felt like it.

fash

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Even as a Remainer, and even today, Mays language betrays the inherent disconnect between the UK and the rest of Europe :

"Asked whether she had been told that the 48 letters to trigger a no confidence motion in her as Conservative leader had been received, May said: “No, I have been here in Europe dealing with the issue I have promised parliament I would be dealing with.”"

People from no other European country would use the term 'Europe' in that sense of it being a place, that is abroad.

Not sure anyone could think she is a remainer - she is at best agnostic and mostly just does what wins votes.

As regards her very British understanding of "the foreign Europeans", there was also this example:

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/921314300723154945

May: I'll take a question from some of our European colleagues?

British voice. "We're all European"

Laughter

Hurrache

This is real The Thick of it stuff, is her being unable to get out of her car a metaphor for everything happening now
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1072558481243365377?s=09

And Femi for the last hour or so has been laying it thick as to how nobody should be surprised, or annoyed, with how Ireland has dealt with the backdrop giving our history with Britain. It may open a few eyes.
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1072553312061403137?s=19
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1052269710216179717?s=19

Dyr

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

People from no other European country would use the term 'Europe' in that sense of it being a place, that is abroad.

No other people, except us of course

We're both island nations, the reality of geography tends to manifest itself in our psyche and language.

Mr.Nice Guy

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Even as a Remainer, and even today, Mays language betrays the inherent disconnect between the UK and the rest of Europe :

"Asked whether she had been told that the 48 letters to trigger a no confidence motion in her as Conservative leader had been received, May said: “No, I have been here in Europe dealing with the issue I have promised parliament I would be dealing with.”"

People from no other European country would use the term 'Europe' in that sense of it being a place, that is abroad.

Reminds me of the comment that the journalist Peter Foster has pinned on his Twitter page:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/921314300723154945

devnull

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

do you really think she is "in power"
she may be PM, but she is effectively as much in power as Neil Kinnock was after he went frolicking on that beach in Brighton.
only difference is Kinnock didn't look as silly.

The big difference you seem to ignore is that Kinnock was never Prime Minister.

Hurrache

Remember the time Andrew Maxwell appeared on the BBC as the token funny man on an otherwise serious panel to discuss Brexit, and some said it would have been much better had it been Dara O'Briain? Well look which 2 people just got invited onto Newsnight together for a cosy chat with Pritil Patel. I doubt it will ever happen though.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1072556174778744836?s=19
https://twitter.com/daraobriain/status/1072540565479272450?s=19

Tell me how

Hurrache wrote: »

Remember the time Andrew Maxwell appeared on the BBC as the token funny man on an otherwise serious panel to discuss Brexit, and some said it would have been much better had it been Daire O'Briain? Well look which 2 people just got invited onto Newsnight together for a cosy chat with Pritil Patel. I doubt it will ever happen though.

One of the responses to that tweet.

https://twitter.com/DanielSneeUK/status/1072558825536925702

No matter what the next few days/weeks/month bring, this is a long long way from being over.
There are many who will in future blame things as basic as the milk going sour or having a flat tyre on Brexit happening/not happening.

devnull

All the Brexiteers that I know are saying the same thing, saying that nobody is going to build the hard border so why is it such a big issue and if the EU need one due to market rules, then it's not their problem and that's for the EU to deal with and pay for as it's an EU border and not a UK border.

That's what you're dealing with.

Inquitus

devnull wrote: »

That's what you're dealing with.

Rabidly partisan idiots, nothing you or I can say or do will ever change their mind. When the UK crashes and burns they'll be telling everyone the whole failed Brexit project just needs more time.

devnull

Inquitus wrote: »

Rabidly partisan idiots, nothing you or I can say or do will ever change their mind. When the UK crashes and burns they'll be telling everyone the whole failed Brexit project just needs more time.

They'll confuse what the consequences of leaving are and call them punishment no doubt.

christy c

Genuine question, what would the logistics of erecting a border be if the need arose?