Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Dyr

Peregrinus wrote: »

Can you point to any particular examples?

The last claim by the ERG that there were 48 letters came through her, also claimed that Villiers had submitted a letter and had to correct herself a few minutes later, that smacks of someone who's willing to run with whatever she's told.


Seem to recall similar carry on during the various heaves against Corbyn.

Rjd2

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

i've always found Laura to be very reliable, but we all know what often happens the messenger when the news is not good?

She's an ambulance chaser at times. She is good, but as she is so desperate to break everything she can get misled. She annoyed the Jezza disciples by some poor editing regarding him (hitjob tbh) and I do remember her "breaking" a Guido Fawkes exclusive without any credit a few years ago.

She does come in for a lot of criticism though which is a bit unfair, death threats from the Corbynites which meant she had to hire a bodyguard last year and obviously plenty of abuse online from right wingers who are not the most enlightened.

Capt'n Midnight

robinph wrote: »

Article 50 needs a UK/ Ireland specific clause to say that one can only leave with the other as they are tied together through other history and until they separate themselves from each other fully (NI getting spun off) they will be considered one entity for article 50.

WTF ?

At partition something like 94% of our exports went to the UK ,now it's just 12%. We do import 24% from/via the UK, but we've been looking for alternative suppliers and supply chains since. (They need to export to us more than we need to export to them.)


At present we both have the CTA opt-out of Schengen.

But if the UK leave and want to rejoin the EU we can force Schengen on them by not insisting on our Opt-Out.


If there is a United Ireland we could probably join Schengen the following day.

MrMusician18

Folkstonian wrote: »

Absolutely. I definitely don’t think there is any agenda behind it on the part of the journalists, they just want the big scoop.

But clearly their sources aren’t as reliable as they would like to think, as demonstrated time and time again over the past few months on the no confidence vote.

I wish they would simply stick to reporting news and not just speculation.

In fairness to Laura K (and I wouldn't defend her often) she did stress several times that the 48 letters was an unconfirmed rumour.

That said, the BBCs coverage of Brexit in general has been appalling (See newsnight tonight). But often in crises you have to look to foreign journalists who don't have skin in the game for the real story.

am i bovvered

theguzman wrote: »

I must give credit to Arlene Foster that whilst I am diametrically opposed to her she is the most faithful and loyal politician to her voter base and she is representing what they want.

I don’t understand how anyone can give credit to Arlene Foster ? IMO a terrible politician, and certainly not working for the interests of her support base. I never could understand the support of Brexit as it was certain to undermine the Union.
I believe she succeeded in creating the best chance of a Ireland.
How ironic the she could become a republican hero 😂

Capt'n Midnight

Hurrache wrote: »

I'm sure anyone who has been watching any of the outside broadcasts from the house of commons would have seen that guy holding the anti Brexit placard, he even got a giant pole when TV stations raised their outside studio on platforms.

His name is Steve Bray and today he was removed from College Green by the police and warned about "criminal damage of a live broadcast".

He's been mentioned a lot. David Mitchell commented on him by saying that when the nutters who normally go around with "the end is nigh" placards start saying things like "lets have a mature reconsideration" you know things have gone insane.

Also loved the comment that SKY and BBC spent £15,000 on the elevated stand, and yer man just got a longer stick.


From earlier on
https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/1211/1016477-mr-stop-brexit/


A hero. Not the hero we deserved but the hero we needed. Nothing less than a knight. Shining..

Capt'n Midnight

am i bovvered wrote: »

I don’t understand how anyone can give credit to Arlene Foster ?

The problem is that the Westminster DUP MP's do their own thing. :mad:

Folkstonian

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

WTF ?

At partition something like 94% of our exports went to the UK ,now it's just 12%. We do import 24% from/via the UK, but we've been looking for alternative suppliers and supply chains since. (They need to export to us more than we need to export to them.)


At present we both have the CTA opt-out of Schengen.

But if the UK leave and want to rejoin the EU we can force Schengen on them by not insisting on our Opt-Out.


If there is a United Ireland we could probably join Schengen the following day.

In all seriousness, would you actually want to join the Schengen area?

Britain and Ireland are incredibly fortunate to be outside of it at the moment.

Laois_Man

am i bovvered wrote: »

I don’t understand how anyone can give credit to Arlene Foster ? IMO a terrible politician, and certainly not working for the interests of her support base. I never could understand the support of Brexit as it was certain to undermine the Union.
I believe she succeeded in creating the best chance of a Ireland.
How ironic the she could become a republican hero ��

Teresa may might become the Republican hero

Nothing Arlene Foster has done has mattered a damn!

hill16bhoy

Folkstonian wrote: »

In all seriousness, would you actually want to join the Schengen area?

Britain and Ireland are incredibly fortunate to be outside of it at the moment.

I'd like to see us join Schengen and still be part of the Common Travel Area.

And if that appears to make no sense at all given that Britain is not part of Schengen and would object, well, it makes at least as much sense as Britain's plans to avoid a hard border in Ireland.

Why can't Ireland have its cake and eat it too?

20silkcut

Laois_Man wrote: »

Teresa may might become the Republican hero

Nothing Arlene Foster has done has mattered a damn!

Leo Varadkar and Fine Gael the party of John “unionist” Bruton are nearly worthy of a mural on the falls road at this stage.
Such is the madness of Brexit.

fash

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

i think you misread their intentions.
if they are given a choice between sundering the Union with GB and a Hard border with us, you know that's not even a question as far as the DUP is concerned.

for them there will only ever be 1 winner.
why are people acting so surprised?

If that were the case, they would have been encouraging Theresa May to go with a softer brexit- where none of these issues arise. They have repeatedly not done so- and always ruled out a soft brexit - despite not really caring about brexit and prior to brexit emphasising the importance of the EU.

opinionated3

theguzman wrote: »

I have supported Brexit from the very outset long before the Referendum and I support a Hard Brexit today. A hard Brexit and a hard Border are in my best interests as a Nationalist because I want a United Ireland, and quiet frankly it is time to move on from the Good Friday Agreement and that was a great instrument to end years of conflict but from a Nationalist viewpoint it has done nothing over the last twenty years other than stall the national question and lets Unionist rule in the six counties continue.

A referendum is needed and simple Demographic change will deliver a United Ireland eventually. I am also anti-Eu so was delighted to see the UK leave so as to inflict a defeat on the entire European project. I must give credit to Arlene Foster that whilst I am diametrically opposed to her she is the most faithful and loyal politician to her voter base and she is representing what they want.

Theresa May is not honouring the Brexit which the democratic majority of UK voters wanted to leave the EU, our leader was not democratically elected, he does not have the majority of Fine Gael party members backing him, and got elected as leader and thus Taoiseach because the FG party values the vote of their party TD's and County Councillors ahead of the ordinary FG members, the vast majority of whom backed Simon Coveney for leader.

Ireland following the Brits example of leaving the EU would be utterly catastrophic for us as a nation..... You do know that don't you?

fash

opinionated3 wrote: »

Ireland following the Brits example of leaving the EU would be utterly catastrophic for us as a nation..... You do know that don't you?

Not for those who want a United Ireland- just so we can go back under UK control again...

Peregrinus

fash wrote: »

Not for those who want a United Ireland- just so we can go back under UK control again...

I think the class of people who want a united Ireland so that we can go back under UK control again is a small one.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

the risk being Ireland might be leaned by other EU countries.

That is not the risk. The risk is that the Brits crash out by accident.

Peregrinus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That is not the risk. The risk is that the Brits crash out by accident.

Less of a risk, now that it has been established that the UK can call off Brexit at any time before it happens, without needing any agreement from the EU. If they do crash out without a deal it won't be "by accident"; it will be because they have chosen to do that rather than to call the whole thing off.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

Less of a risk, now that it has been established that the UK can call off Brexit at any time before it happens, without needing any agreement from the EU. If they do crash out without a deal it won't be "by accident"; it will be because they have chosen to do that rather than to call the whole thing off.

Agreed, but I can't see May calling it off. She has, if you'll pardon the expression, been very clear. If it comes to the deadline, I can see her going no-deal if the only alternative is no Brexit.


The accidental element would be that there is no majority for a no-deal crashout in Parliament, but Westminster procedures may not allow MPs to stop it.

dr.fuzzenstein

opinionated3 wrote: »

Ireland following the Brits example of leaving the EU would be utterly catastrophic for us as a nation..... You do know that don't you?

I believe that the views this poster expresses are not genuine and he may post certain things purely to elicit a response from other posters. In another thread he's a pure bred, good ole' American boy.
I think there's a term for it, can't quite remember it, tip of my tongue, so it is, I think it rhymes with roll...

Peregrinus

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

I believe that the views this poster expresses are not genuine and he may post certain things purely to elicit a response from other posters. In another thread he's a pure bred, good ole' American boy.
I think there's a term for it, can't quite remember it, tip of my tongue, so it is, I think it rhymes with roll...

Rhymes with "doll", surely?

devnull

Sky now reporting threshold for a no confidence vote in Theresa May has been reached.

Seems there's been an influx overnight to push them over the line and the ERG egging on tactics I described earlier were successful.

Enzokk

Vote tonight on her leadership.

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1072757148235558912

Vote between 6-8pm and she needs 158 votes to win.

devnull

Full statement from Sir Graham Brady

The chairman of the backbench 1922 committee of Conservative MPs said: "The threshold of 15% of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party has been exceeded.

"In accordance with the rules, a ballot will be held between 1800 and 2000 on Wednesday 12th December in committee room 14 of the House of Commons.

"The votes will be counted immediately afterwards and an announcement will be made as soon as possible in the evening.

"Arrangements for the announcement will be released later today.

"I will be available to answer questions about this process on Abingdon Green from 0800 hrs."

It's happening tonight. Moving relatively quickly. More chaos and distraction lies
Ahead

lawred2

What good is that going to serve really?

Not like there's an obvious candidate waiting in the wings

cml387

devnull wrote: »

Sky now reporting threshold for a no confidence vote in Theresa May has been reached.

Seems there's been an influx overnight to push them over the line and the ERG egging on tactics I described earlier were successful.

I heard Owen Patterson on Today just now. He practically accused TM of lying to him over the backstop.

Just interesting to re-iterate the problem the ERG have with the backstop:it's an evil plan by the EU to trap Britain in a customs union.So although the question wasn't put, the answer to the question "If you are so sure your technological solution would work, the backstop won't be needed" would be that "The EU will just refuse to accept it".

DOCARCH

devnull wrote: »

....ERG egging on tactics....

I actually hope TM wins the confidence vote and ERG crawl back under the stones they belong (dragging the DUP with them)!

If she does not win, and there is a leadership contest, there will be weeks of pie in the sky bulls**t talk of re-negotiating Brexit.

Not going to happen!

murphaph

Folkstonian wrote: »

In all seriousness, would you actually want to join the Schengen area?

Absolutely, as long as the UK or at least NI also joined. I personally rarely cross the land border but fly between Dublin and Berlin often and the waiting times, especially on the Schengen side can be a real pain with kids in tow. I would however not wish for Schengen unless NI was also in it as I am against border controls on the island of Ireland.

Folkstonian wrote: »

Britain and Ireland are incredibly fortunate to be outside of it at the moment.

Sweden is in it and guess what, we were checked by Swedish police as we crossed over into Sweden from Denmark this summer. Every vehicle was stopped and checked. We had to present our passports. Schengen allows for such controls during times of threat. The UK and Ireland could easily impose them if need be.

As AKK said during her CDU leadership acceptance speech, we want a strong Schengen on the outside with no or few restrictions on the inside. That remains the goal for me.

Peregrinus

lawred2 wrote: »

What good is that going to serve really?

Not like there's an obvious candidate waiting in the wings

There doesn't need to be an obvious candidate at this stage in the process.

This is a two-stage process. In stage 1, tonight, the question is simply "shall Teresa May continue as party leader?". If the answer by a simple majority is "yes", the process is over. If the answer by a simple majoirty is "no" we move on to stage 2, which is a leadership contest. Teresa May is barred from standing in that contest, but any other member of the parliamentary party can throw his or her hat into the ring.

Of course, it's much easier to vote "no" in stage 1 if you have a clear idea as to who you will vote for in stage 2, but it's not necessary that a majority of members should have the same clear idea about that.

cml387

Peregrinus wrote: »

There doesn't need to be an obvious candidate at this stage in the process.

This is a two-stage process. In stage 1, tonight, the question is simply "shall Teresa May continue as party leader?". If the answer by a simple majority is "yes", the process is over. If the answer by a simple majoirty is "no" we move on to stage 2, which is a leadership contest. Teresa May is barred from standing in that contest, but any other member of the parliamentary party can throw his or her hat into the ring.

Of course, it's much easier to vote "no" in stage 1 if you have a clear idea as to who you will vote for in stage 2, but it's not necessary that a majority of members should have the same clear idea about that.

Would of a majority of 1 be enough?
Hard to see if she only won by a smallish margin that she could carry on.
MT didn't, and she seemed to be in a stronger position.

LeinsterDub

Peregrinus wrote: »

There doesn't need to be an obvious candidate at this stage in the process.

This is a two-stage process. In stage 1, tonight, the question is simply "shall Teresa May continue as party leader?". If the answer by a simple majority is "yes", the process is over. If the answer by a simple majoirty is "no" we move on to stage 2, which is a leadership contest. Teresa May is barred from standing in that contest, but any other member of the parliamentary party can throw his or her hat into the ring.

Of course, it's much easier to vote "no" in stage 1 if you have a clear idea as to who you will vote for in stage 2, but it's not necessary that a majority of members should have the same clear idea about that.

There is a stage 1B potentially. She wins but wins by such a fine margin she feels she has to quit.

And also 1C she wins by a fine margin doesn't quit but labour play the how are we except to have confidence in this government card.

And a highly unlikely but possible I believe 2A she looses and pulls a Jeremy and just ignores it