Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

opinionated3

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

I believe that the views this poster expresses are not genuine and he may post certain things purely to elicit a response from other posters. In another thread he's a pure bred, good ole' American boy.
I think there's a term for it, can't quite remember it, tip of my tongue, so it is, I think it rhymes with roll...

???. I was merely trying to state the obvious i.e the jobs that would be lost, that could never be replaced etc. We are far better off being in the EU than out of it. No trolling whatsoever on my part. And I'm 100% Irish btw

Is there a difference between a vote of no confidence triggered like this, compared to what many wanted Corbyn to do yesterday? Does a win in this mean he can't do that in January?

Peregrinus

opinionated3 wrote: »

???. I was merely trying to state the obvious i.e the jobs that would be lost, that could never be replaced etc. We are far better off being in the EU than out of it. No trolling whatsoever on my part. And I'm 100% Irish btw

I think Dr Fuzzenstein was referring not to you, but to the poster to whom you were replying.

Podge_irl

Deleted User wrote: »

Is there a difference between a vote of no confidence triggered like this, compared to what many wanted Corbyn to do yesterday? Does a win in this mean he can't do that in January?

This is just amongst the Conservative party to vote on their confidence in her as leader. It is unconnected to a vote of no confidence in parliament which can essentially be called whenever they want.

opinionated3

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think Dr Fuzzenstein was referring not to you, but to the poster to whom you were replying.

No bother. Thanks.

Peregrinus

cml387 wrote: »

Would of a majority of 1 be enough?
Hard to see if she only won by a smallish margin that she could carry on.
MT didn't, and she seemed to be in a stronger position.

LeinsterDub wrote: »

There is a stage 1B potentially. She wins but wins by such a fine margin she feels she has to quit.

You're both correct; my bad. If she wins, but by an unconvincing margin, she may decide she has to go, or the men in grey suits may visit her and explain to her that she has made that decision.

cml387 wrote: »

And also 1C she wins by a fine margin doesn't quit but labour play the how are we except to have confidence in this government card.

Yup.

cml387 wrote: »

And a highly unlikely but possible I believe 2A she looses and pulls a Jeremy and just ignores it

Now that would be a movie worth seeing.

When the Portuguese dictator Salazar had a stroke in the early 1970s he was not expected to recover, so the President removed him as Prime Minister and appointed a replacement. However, he did recover, at least to an extent, and everybody was afraid to tell him he was no longer Prime Minister. He spent the last two years of his life believing that he was Prime Minister of Portugal, living in the Prime Minister's official residence, reading cabinet papers and issuing orders and directives, and eventually died in the belief that he was still Prime Minister of Portugal.

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

Is there a difference between a vote of no confidence triggered like this, compared to what many wanted Corbyn to do yesterday? Does a win in this mean he can't do that in January?

Yes, there's a difference. This evening's vote is a vote by Tory MPs as to whether they have confidence in her as leader of the Tory Party. Corbyn was looking at a vote as to whether Parliament has confidence in her as Prime Minister.

If she loses this evening's vote (or wins, but by too small a margin) then she ceases to be leader of the Tory party. Unless there are further developments she stays on as PM while the Tory party chooses a new leader, who then become PM in her place.

But if she lost a vote of confidence in Parliament the almost certain outcome would be an early general election.

cml387

The danger of a leadership contest (if TM loses this evening) is that it opens the contest to the constituency associations, most of whose members make the ERG look like persons of sweet reasonableness.

robinph

This is surely just an exercise in making sure nothing gets resolved anytime soon so that the Brexit mob get to push the UK off the cliff.

DOCARCH

cml387 wrote: »

The danger of a leadership contest (if TM loses this evening) is that it opens the contest to the constituency associations, most of whose members make the ERG look like persons of sweet reasonableness.

It's the MPs who eventually, after whittling down, put forward 2 candidates for election (by MPs and all members of the party).

DOCARCH

robinph wrote: »

This is surely just an exercise in making sure nothing gets resolved anytime soon so that the Brexit mob get to push the UK off the cliff.

Pretty much! Exercise in self interest!

Russman

You'd have to wonder about the point of this move.
If she wins, nothing much has changed, those that vote against her tonight will still vote down the "deal" in the HoC. If she loses tonight, and some other head banger is in charge, the EU isn't going to suddenly say "ahh ok, you can have whatever you want just because its you....", the EU will tell him/her that the deal still is what it is, which is what it was last week.

DOCARCH

A lot of cabinet members....likes of Gove and Fox....coming out saying the will support TM in vote of confidence.

Peregrinus

robinph wrote: »

This is surely just an exercise in making sure nothing gets resolved anytime soon so that the Brexit mob get to push the UK off the cliff.

May's supporters are already saying that, if May loses and the party has to choose a new leader, it will be necessary to seek an Article 50 extension from the EU.

There is of course no guarantee that the EU would agree. But the point is to spook people into thinking that dumping May will proloing the agony, not necessarily to Brexiters' advantage.

Peregrinus

DOCARCH wrote: »

A lot of cabinet members....likes of Gove and Fox....coming out saying the will support TM in vote of confidence.

Par for the course. There is no advantage to publicly knifing May at this point, and it works against you if you hope to succeed her. All those who are eyeing her apartment in No. 10 will publicly profess their undying loyalty today.

ancapailldorcha

The BBC has produced a helpful image on how a new Prime Minister would be chosen:



I'm surprised that they've actually done this. Who on earth do they think will actually replace her? Rees-Mogg and Johnson are glorified protesters. I'm praying that this isn't some sort of ruse to push through a hard Brexit though someone like Rees-Mogg would easily be able to patch things up with the DUP. I can't see the whole of the government allowing a hard Brexit either.

DOCARCH

Russman wrote: »

If she loses tonight, and some other head banger is in charge, the EU isn't going to suddenly say "ahh ok, you can have whatever you want just because its you...."

I think TM has every chance of winning the confidence vote as realists will see the writing on the wall for Brexit! A leadership election typically takes around 6 weeks!

The EU will not extend A50, for re-negotiation, just because there is new PM.

robinph

DOCARCH wrote: »

A lot of cabinet members....likes of Gove and Fox....coming out saying the will support TM in vote of confidence.

Because they don't want to be the PM during the deal making part of the process, they want to come in after and claim to be the one who can fix it. Daft for anyone to put themselves forward for the job.

She may be a rubbish PM, but at least she hasn't done the sensible thing and run away from it.

Christy42

Pretty much. If May was the wrong person to hold the negotiations then this should have been done months ago. To say the least.

This is time wasting. Wonder if they think if they send someone new to Brussels then the EU would be willing to go again (and delay the upcoming crash out).

VinLieger

Realistically is there anyone with enough popular support to win a leadership election?

cml387

DOCARCH wrote: »

A lot of cabinet members....likes of Gove and Fox....coming out saying the will support TM in vote of confidence.

They really have no choice. They're so deep in now that all sides would treat them with contempt if they bailed now.

Russman

DOCARCH wrote: »

I think TM has every chance of winning the confidence vote as realists will see the writing on the wall for Brexit! A leadership election typically takes around 6 weeks!

The EU will not extend A50, for re-negotiation, just because there is new PM.

Absolutely.
I think she'll probably win pretty convincingly tonight and maybe silence JRM and BJ for a while.
A new leader would be stuck with the exact same situation as we have today which wouldn't even be of their own making (sort of !).

That said, I have just listened to one MP on the radio (didn't catch his name) talking about there being 4 people he believed would "be able to negotiate with Europe and get the Brexit we want" - the level of delusion is mind boggling at this stage and the problem is that positions are getting more and more entrenched.

DOCARCH

VinLieger wrote: »

Realistically is there anyone with enough popular support to win a leadership election?

Boris!

He is disliked by many/most (Tory) MPs but a lot of the party members love him!

If he managed to somehow get on the ballot for a leadership election, he would have every chance of winning!

We may turn off the lights at that point!!!

Russman

Christy42 wrote: »

Wonder if they think if they send someone new to Brussels then the EU would be willing to go again (and delay the upcoming crash out).

I think that has to be the rationale, however misguided it may be.

UK: "new leader, new deal please"
EU: "same country, same deal"

Shelga

Can’t believe they’ve actually done this, with 107 days until they crash out of the EU with no deal.

The Tories are a disgrace, an absolute disgrace.

DOCARCH

cml387 wrote: »

They really have no choice. They're so deep in now that all sides would treat them with contempt if they bailed now.

I think it's more that they are realists! They are Brexiteers, but have come to the conclusion that the reality is the TM deal is the only deal that will deliver Brexit (and avoid the crash out Brexit).

The longer the chaos goes on, the greater the risk Brexit will not happen!

Beechwoodspark

Boris was boasting about Losing some weight and getting a new haircut yesterday, in anticipation of the leadership vote.

That sums him up. All about the shallow surface image. What a clown that man is. And the UK will be in even bigger trouble if he gets into Downing st.

fash

robinph wrote: »

Because they don't want to be the PM during the deal making part of the process, they want to come in after and claim to be the one who can fix it. Daft for anyone to put themselves forward for the job.

That assumes that the person replacing her /people seeking to replace her want/s a deal.

If they do not, they can go to Europe with outrageous demands, get rebuffed then blame the EU and May saying if they had been there since the start etc. Then dismantle the UK.

First Up

Shelga wrote: »

Can’t believe they’ve actually done this, with 107 days until they crash out of the EU with no deal.

The Tories are a disgrace, an absolute disgrace.

The posters here who have been chortling at the impotence of Remain advocates must be greatly re-assured these days.

Russman

DOCARCH wrote: »

I think it's more that they are realists! They are Brexiteers, but have come to the conclusion that the reality is the TM deal is the only deal that will deliver Brexit (and avoid the crash out Brexit).

The longer the chaos goes on, the greater the risk Brexit will not happen!

You could be spot on with that, although I'm not convinced that a longer delay reduces the chances of Brexit, surely come 29th March, that's it unless an extension is granted ? I can't see the EU giving an extension for any reason other than a new referendum.