Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

munsterlegend

DOCARCH wrote: »

I think TM has every chance of winning the confidence vote as realists will see the writing on the wall for Brexit! A leadership election typically takes around 6 weeks!

The EU will not extend A50, for re-negotiation, just because there is new PM.

She will win I would think so the question then is by how much she wins by. What would be an acceptable winning margin is debatable. If she wins comfortably it could strengthen her. It’s been hanging over her head for months now so just as well to get it out of the way and remove one threat for a year.

Nody

The only way I can read the leadership challenge now is that they are afraid Brexit will be cancelled (as May threatened) and this is why they are making the move right now rather than waiting until April to install a PM to slash and burn legislation for them.

Hurrache

Peregrinus wrote: »

May's supporters are already saying that, if May loses and the party has to choose a new leader, it will be necessary to seek an Article 50 extension from the EU.

There is of course no guarantee that the EU would agree. But the point is to spook people into thinking that dumping May will proloing the agony, not necessarily to Brexiters' advantage.

They'd have to, but like you say, the EU have previously said the only way they'd agree to an extension is if there was progress on the current agreement, i.e. it would get through the UK parliament.

Hurrache

Pragmatically we're all team May for today, but it's incredible entertainment all the same as to what may happen.

Spook_ie

Hurrache wrote: »

They'd have to, but like you say, the EU have previously said the only way they'd agree to an extension is if there was progress on the current agreement, i.e. it would get through the UK parliament.

The UK could in theory have an automatic 2 year extension just by revoking A.50 and then resubmitting it immediately afterwards, they wouldn't be very popular afterwards but it is an option, they could then spend the 2 years gearing up for a hard brexit.

ArmaniJeanss

In any leadership election you need the support of 106 of the 316 MPs to get onto the final 2 ballot. Its far more attainable than people might think really.
A few votes less would probably be enough unless two other candidates split votes perfectly. ERG base of ~50 would give Boris a good head start.
Once he gets on the members ballot he likely wins.

Probably moot as I don't think she'll lose the vote of confidence tonight.

Professor Moriarty

Spook_ie wrote: »

The UK could in theory have an automatic 2 year extension just by revoking A.50 and then resubmitting it immediately afterwards, they wouldn't be very popular afterwards but it is an option, they could then spend the 2 years gearing up for a hard brexit.

That option is based on "good faith". I imagine the EU would retaliate severely in that scenario.

Hurrache

Spook_ie wrote: »

The UK could in theory have an automatic 2 year extension just by revoking A.50 and then resubmitting it immediately afterwards, they wouldn't be very popular afterwards but it is an option, they could then spend the 2 years gearing up for a hard brexit.

Such a situation has been mentioned as a reason a country can't revoke it.

In answer to the question from the Scottish court, the Advocate General proposes that the Court of Justice should, in its future judgment, declare that Article 50 TEU allows the unilateral revocation of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the EU, until such time as the Withdrawal Agreement is formally concluded, provided that the revocation has been decided upon in accordance with the member state's constitutional requirements, is formally notified to the European Council and does not involve an abusive practice."

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

Pragmatically we're all team May for today, but it's incredible entertainment all the same as to what may happen.

Better than GOT.

cml387

Those of a certain age will remember the heave against Margaret Thatcher.

When the result of the first ballot was announced, MT was in Paris at a Eurofight.

John Sargeant (then BBC pol corr) was doing a piece live to the Nine News outside the British Embassy, explaining that it was unlikely the PM would make an announcement on her intentions that evening.
What he couldn't see, but we could, was Maggie emerging from the building and striding purposefully towards the camera.

Collectively the nation was shouting out "She's behind you!".

Inquitus

Hurrache wrote: »

Pragmatically we're all team May for today, but it's incredible entertainment all the same as to what may happen.

I think we have to be with team May, the list of favourites to be next Tory leader is quite frightening:

BoJo 4/1
Raab 5/1
Javid 6/1*
Gove 7/1
Hunt 8/1^
Davis 10/1
Rudd 14/1"
Mogg 14/1
Mordaunt 25/1
Leadsom 25/1

*Remainer but half hearted at best
^Remainer who is now more leaver due to EU arrogance
"Actual Remainer
All the rest are the Brexit or bust crew

Spook_ie

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That option is based on "good faith". I imagine the EU would retaliate severely in that scenario.

Wouldn't matter if whoever got in as pm wanted a hard brexit, 2 years ( or until they decide to pull the actual exit trigger ) to reorganise their borders, WTA status etc.

Enzokk

Deleted User wrote: »

Is there a difference between a vote of no confidence triggered like this, compared to what many wanted Corbyn to do yesterday? Does a win in this mean he can't do that in January?

I think this has been answered before but I believe that there can be many votes of confidence on her leadership as PM in the House of Commons. Is he wins tonight she will be safe from her own party for one year, not the rest of parliament.

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Boris was boasting about Losing some weight and getting a new haircut yesterday, in anticipation of the leadership vote.

That sums him up. All about the shallow surface image. What a clown that man is. And the UK will be in even bigger trouble if he gets into Downing st.

I don't know why, his plan has no majority so he will also get nothing done. There will be at least 10 Tories who would vote against no-deal and he will lose the vote so the only way to sort out the numbers in parliament is for a general election and the Conservatives will be wiped out in that case. Not because of Brexit but because people are suffering and having to use food banks in the 5/6th largest economy in the world.

Hurrache wrote: »

Pragmatically we're all team May for today, but it's incredible entertainment all the same as to what may happen.

It doesn't matter, either way she wins and we careen to no-deal because she doesn't have the votes. Or she loses and her successor careens towards no-deal because they don't have the votes for their plan. If she leaves then it increases the possibility of a new general election or a unity government made up of moderate Conservatives and Labour MPs. Then you would have a soft Brexit in any case.

Either way the situation is still FUBAR in the UK.

LeinsterDub

DOCARCH wrote: »

A lot of cabinet members....likes of Gove and Fox....coming out saying the will support TM in vote of confidence.

Unsurprising as anyone who disagrees with her has long since been fired or quit.

Professor Moriarty

Spook_ie wrote: »

Wouldn't matter if whoever got in as pm wanted a hard brexit, 2 years ( or until they decide to pull the actual exit trigger ) to reorganise their borders, WTA status etc.

That would be a treacherous move by Britain. I can't imagine the EU not reacting. You can't stab your biggest customer in the back and expect business as usual.

VinLieger

DOCARCH wrote: »

A lot of cabinet members....likes of Gove and Fox....coming out saying the will support TM in vote of confidence.

Because nobody wants the job right now.



Come March 29th at 11:01 am people will be clawing each others eyes out for it so they can be the ones to "rescue" the country but nobody wants to be in charge between now and then

Muscles Schultz

VinLieger wrote: »

Because nobody wants the job right now.



Come March 29th at 11:01 am people will be clawing each others eyes out for it so they can be the ones to "rescue" the country but nobody wants to be in charge between now and then

If May wins she’s there for a year as leader. No way she will leave voluntarily

blanch152

If May wins convincingly, apart from the likes of Boris and Rees-Mogg, surely the rest of them have to rally behind her plan or risk splitting the Conservative party?

Leroy42

So I assume that in the round of interviews the likes of JRM, Johnson etc will be asked why it is reasonable for the Tory party to have another vote on the leader that they choose only 2 years ago yet it completely undemocratic to ask the people about Brexit again?

It completely blows their argument against a 2nd vote out of the water.

farmchoice

blanch152 wrote: »

If May wins convincingly, apart from the likes of Boris and Rees-Mogg, surely the rest of them have to rally behind her plan or risk splitting the Conservative party?

you would imagine so but even if every single Tory MP Rees-Mogg included voted for her deal she will still lose because she doesn't have a majority and the DUP are not know for folding under pressure.

DOCARCH

blanch152 wrote: »

....surely the rest of them have to rally behind her plan....

Doubt it, but certainly I think they would have to shut up (for a bit).

Podge_irl

Spook_ie wrote: »

Wouldn't matter if whoever got in as pm wanted a hard brexit, 2 years ( or until they decide to pull the actual exit trigger ) to reorganise their borders, WTA status etc.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That would be a treacherous move by Britain. I can't imagine the EU not reacting. You can't stab your biggest customer in the back and expect business as usual.

They don't need to retaliate surely. They just say that the revocation was not in good faith and therefore not valid. The UK is out immediately.

Blowfish

The UK could in theory have an automatic 2 year extension just by revoking A.50 and then resubmitting it immediately afterwards, they wouldn't be very popular afterwards but it is an option, they could then spend the 2 years gearing up for a hard brexit.

Actually, right now they legally can't, not due to the Article 50 text, but due to their own Withdrawal Bill text which states the EU treaties will no longer be in effect from 'Exit day'. It then defines exit day to be 29th March 2019. They'd have to go through the absolute political shitstorm of revoking the withdrawal bill before they can cancel Article 50.

Inquitus

The Bookies odds on the no confidence vote are closer than I expected.

Best Price on May wins is 4/9
Best Price on May loses is 21/10

seamus

ancapailldorcha made a comment a couple of days ago about how the Brexiters in parliament were already leveraged in favour of Brexit. They've placed their bets, moved around their money, and their financial future now rides on ensuring that Brexit happens, ideally as hard as possible.

Realistically this is the only thing that now makes any sense. Barring an outcome where May receives 60% of the votes and thus can claim a "decisive" victory, all other outcomes lead to further uncertainty, further chaos in the Tories, general elections, and ultimately delays and stalling, preventing anything except a crash-out Brexit from happening.

The only way the actions of the ERG make any sense is if they are actively fighting for a crash-out Brexit and thus are willing to throw anything and everything at it, no matter how ill-planned or uncertain. They have no interest in any deal, their only interest is making sure there is no deal.

Professor Moriarty

Podge_irl wrote: »

They don't need to retaliate surely. They just say that the revocation was not in good faith and therefore not valid. The UK is out immediately.

Exactly.

DOCARCH

seamus wrote: »

The only way the actions of the ERG make any sense is if they are actively fighting for a crash-out Brexit and thus are willing to throw anything and everything at it, no matter how ill-planned or uncertain. They have no interest in any deal, their only interest is making sure there is no deal.

Certainly seems that way! The old mantra 'no deal is better than a bad deal'.

I think any deal between the UK and EU would be considered a bad deal by some.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1072788183144955906


This was one of the options I outlined earlier. Also it's a private votes so don't put too much stock in minsters saying they support her . They may just be attempting to ride two horses.

LuckyLloyd

seamus wrote: »

ancapailldorcha made a comment a couple of days ago about how the Brexiters in parliament were already leveraged in favour of Brexit. They've placed their bets, moved around their money, and their financial future now rides on ensuring that Brexit happens, ideally as hard as possible.

Realistically this is the only thing that now makes any sense. Barring an outcome where May receives 60% of the votes and thus can claim a "decisive" victory, all other outcomes lead to further uncertainty, further chaos in the Tories, general elections, and ultimately delays and stalling, preventing anything except a crash-out Brexit from happening.

The only way the actions of the ERG make any sense is if they are actively fighting for a crash-out Brexit and thus are willing to throw anything and everything at it, no matter how ill-planned or uncertain. They have no interest in any deal, their only interest is making sure there is no deal.

Good analysis. The stakes / potential rewards are high enough for them to risk a Corbyn premiership.

joe40

It beggars belief that the vast majority of the British Parliament do not want a no deal brexit, but they are heading that direction.

Surely they must realise at this stage that it is the WA or no deal. Nothing else is on the table. I don't see how a tory government will give another referendum, it would be a humiliating u turn after all their rhetoric over the past 2 years.