Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Podge_irl

EKRIUQ wrote: »

BBC are now saying that May will win comfortable tonight unless the private ballots change everything.

But she easily has the numbers at the moment.

Considering how laboured and arduous it appeared to be to get the 48 letters required in the first place I would be surprised if she faces substantially more than that number of votes of no confidence.

VinLieger

Shelga wrote: »

The people who want a second referendum should drive home the point that if the UK crashes out and looks to rejoin within 5-10 years, they will have to give up sterling and join the eurozone.

Why would this happen? If anything its just playing into the hands of the brexiteers by confirming all the fears and lies they've been telling people about the EU.

Punishing them if they want to return achieves absolutely nothing.

10000maniacs

I think May will win the no confidence vote but will lose any "meaningful" votes. The EU won't budge on anything so a hard Brexit lurks in 100 days time.

seamus

Tell me how wrote: »

From the Donald Trump school of negotiating.

Europe wants the UK within the EU. They want them to feel welcome and not to feel like they have been taken advantage of (see Germany after treaty of Versailles for how that worked out) as that will only allow resentment to fester which cannot end well.

If the UK reapplies for membership, they won't have any special exemptions from the core requirements of membership.

The EU has already proven that it's not willing to compromise internal stability for the sake of an obstreperous nation that can't see past its own rose-tinted history.

Special status for the UK to rejoin would be the end of the EU.

But they certainly shouldn't be playing the, "It'll be harder to get back in later" card. As others say, this will only come across as punishment.

Leroy42

Tell me how wrote: »

From the Donald Trump school of negotiating.

Europe wants the UK within the EU. They want them to feel welcome and not to feel like they have been taken advantage of (see Germany after treaty of Versailles for how that worked out) as that will only allow resentment to fester which cannot end well.

Good point, but the EU will also want assurances that the UK have now bought into the EU project and not just going back in cause they couldn't find anything better but will be off as soon as they do.

More integration would help cement that. Joining the Euro would be a massive signal. If the UK are so against that then do they really want to rejoin is the question they need to ask.

Because of the big selling points of Brexit was not the EU of today, so much as the dislike for the EU of tomorrow. Cancelling A50 or rejoining doesn't change the fact that the UK does not like the way the EU is evolving.

alchemist33

devnull wrote: »

Mogg is clearly worried she will win tonight

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1072784374163218432

A reply to that, similar to what a poster said earlier...

"You had a vote two years ago. She won. You can't just ask for another one because you don't like the result. May means May"

Podge_irl

VinLieger wrote: »

Why would this happen? If anything its just playing into the hands of the brexiteers by confirming all the fears and lies they've been telling people about the EU.

Punishing them if they want to return achieves absolutely nothing.

Any new country joining the EU has to commit to the Euro and Schengen in principle.

It is not punishment, it is simply enforcing the rules in a rule-based organisation. A concept that many in the UK are still struggling to get their heads around.

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

Good point, but the EU will also want assurances that the UK have now bought into the EU project and not just going back in cause they couldn't find anything better but will be off as soon as they do.

More integration would help cement that. Joining the Euro would be a massive signal. If the UK are so against that then do they really want to rejoin is the question they need to ask.

Because of the big selling points of Brexit was not the EU of today, so much as the dislike for the EU of tomorrow. Cancelling A50 or rejoining doesn't change the fact that the UK does not like the way the EU is evolving.

Yes more integration would help the EU project. But, it would be outweighed by an injured UK media (who will lose their sh*t if the EU make them join the Euro as some form of penalty). I think that the EU would trust that if they were back in, the memory of this experience would keep them in for at least a generation.

Other countries may look for the UK to pay for their petulance but while there might be some token to indicate commitment, it most definitely will not be sacrificing the pound.

Professor Moriarty

If May wins decisively, it will be a serious punch in the mouth for the ERG and Jacob in particular. Metaphorically speaking, sadly.

VinLieger

Podge_irl wrote: »

Any new country joining the EU has to commit to the Euro and Schengen in principle.

It is not punishment, it is simply enforcing the rules in a rule-based organisation. A concept that many in the UK are still struggling to get their heads around.

I understand that but theres no point in throwing it in their faces right now as it simply plays into the brexiteers hands by confirming what theyve said about the EU

VinLieger

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If May wins decisively, it will be a serious punch in the mouth for the ERG and Jacob in particular. Metaphorically speaking, sadly.

Ahh but we all know even if she does win decisively he will ignore it and keep yammering on as if nothing happened

Tell me how

VinLieger wrote: »

Ahh but we all know even if she does win decisively he will ignore it and keep yammering on as if nothing happened

Speaker on Pat Kenny this morning suggested that if she wins today, that Labour could use this to trigger a no confidence vote in the government and that it could be that which finally brings her down.

This whole experience from Cameron announcing the referendum to now is literally the M. Night Shyamalan version of a political event.

Podge_irl

VinLieger wrote: »

I understand that but theres no point in throwing it in their faces right now as it simply plays into the brexiteers hands by confirming what theyve said about the EU

I think any talk of rejoining in general will be scoffed at by Brexiteers.

The point still stands that if they want to rejoin they will, in all liklihood, have to sign up to the Euro and Schengen though. Statements of facts remain statements of fact, even if they annoy some people. It also doesn't confirm what they are saying about the EU to be honest, but they want to think that and little will stop them.

Leroy42

Tell me how wrote: »

Yes more integration would help the EU project. But, it would be outweighed by an injured UK media (who will lose their sh*t if the EU make them join the Euro as some form of penalty). I think that the EU would trust that if they were back in, the memory of this experience would keep them in for at least a generation.

Other countries may look for the UK to pay for their petulance but while there might be some token to indicate commitment, it most definitely will not be sacrificing the pound.

At this point do you think that anything will be sufficient to help the injured UK media.

It is about making a decision. Even now, TM is not being honest. Had she explained the trade off's during the process (either fully out and all that entails or NI remains etc) they wouldn't be in the mess they are now.

They thought about leaving but maybe will think better of it in the future. But simply coming back solves nothing, except for them. It still leaves the "in the EU, but not really" problem and thus the UK needs to decide where they want to be, where they see the future.

snailsong

Tell me how wrote: »

VinLieger wrote: »

Ahh but we all know even if she does win decisively he will ignore it and keep yammering on as if nothing happened

Speaker on Pat Kenny this morning suggested that if she wins today, that Labour could use this to trigger a no confidence vote in the government and that it could be that which finally brings her down.

This whole experience from Cameron announcing the referendum to now is literally the M. Night Shyamalan version of a political event.

If May wins today, and it seems she will, then she can't be ousted as Tory leader for a year. Thus, if Labour could precipitate a GE May will lead the Tories if she so wishes. What will be the campaign policy? The WA that she has demonstrated she can't get through parliament? Crash out? New WA which is clearly unavailable? No Brexit.

Laois_Man

Tell me how wrote: »

Speaker on Pat Kenny this morning suggested that if she wins today, that Labour could use this to trigger a no confidence vote in the government and that it could be that which finally brings her down.

Labour don't actually want to bring her down!

listermint

Shelga wrote: »

Any chance of a reduction in property prices??- so some of us may have some hope of buying somewhere before we’re 40?

No? Carry on.

Reduction in property prices means a reduction in economic activity i.e the banks won't lend . So you wouldn't be getting it either way

Tell me how

snailsong wrote: »

If May wins today, and it seems she will, then she can't be ousted as Tory leader for a year. Thus, if Labour could precipitate a GE May will lead the Tories if she so wishes. What will be the campaign policy? The WA that she has demonstrated she can't get through parliament? Crash out? New WA which is clearly unavailable? No Brexit.

If May wins today and Labour do engineer a GE she will resign. I would be 100% sure of that. She would gain nothing being leader of the Tories as they are decimated just so she could sit on the opposition bench.

Tell me how

Laois_Man wrote: »

Labour don't actually want to bring her down!

Yes, I've felt that previously and said it here that they want to remain on the outside at the moment. I'm just repeating what the commentator on PK was saying.

VinLieger

Tell me how wrote: »

If May wins today and Labour do engineer a GE she will resign. I would be 100% sure of that. She would gain nothing being leader of the Tories as they are decimated just so she could sit on the opposition bench.

But would they be decimated? I could see them indeed losing but getting decimated is a reach considering how poor labour have consistently been polling under corbyns leadership.

robinph

snailsong wrote: »

If May wins today, and it seems she will, then she can't be ousted as Tory leader for a year. Thus, if Labour could precipitate a GE May will lead the Tories if she so wishes. What will be the campaign policy? The WA that she has demonstrated she can't get through parliament? Crash out? New WA which is clearly unavailable? No Brexit.

A general election can't happen before the deadline date as they are out of time. Triggering the leadup to an election though wouldn't be enough for the EU to grant an extension to A50 until it is over, unless Corbyn's position was stated as being No Brexit. If Labour is still in the wanting a Brexit but not May's version camp then the EU will just stick with things as they are and wait for crash out during the election campaign.

Corbyn probably then wins by default, but it's too late to do anything about it by then.

Inquitus

2nd Referendum is nearly into evens now best priced at 11/10

Tell me how

VinLieger wrote: »

But would they be decimated? I could see them indeed losing but getting decimated is a reach considering how poor labour have consistently been polling under corbyns leadership.

If they went in to a GE with May leading then I think decimation would be a distinct possibility. All opponents would point to this fiasco and suggesting the Tories think it was fine to continue that way.

Without her as leader, I wouldn't be surprised if a coalition is needed after such (not yet announced) election. Labour's (continued) suggestions that there is time for a GE and a renegotiation and acceptance in the HoC before the 29th of March is laughably amateurish.

VinLieger

robinph wrote: »

A general election can't happen before the deadline date as they are out of time. Triggering the leadup to an election though wouldn't be enough for the EU to grant an extension to A50 until it is over, unless Corbyn's position was stated as being No Brexit. If Labour is still in the wanting a Brexit but not May's version camp then the EU will just stick with things as they are and wait for crash out during the election campaign.

Corbyn probably then wins by default, but it's too late to do anything about it by then.

The idea of them crashing out due to and during an election seems absolutely insane and ridiculous which means its probably one of the more likely scenarios at this stage.

Shelga

Can’t Labour oust Corbyn and install someone like Chuka Ummuna as leader. God, the whole thing is such a mess of epic proportions.

Leroy42

Shelga wrote: »

Can’t Labour oust Corbyn and install someone like Chuka Ummuna as leader. God, the whole thing is such a mess of epic proportions.

No, because weirdly the members seem to love Corbyn even though he is completely useless at the job, seems to be against everything they want and appears not to care what the rest of the party wants.

In such a crisis, any opposition party should be streets ahead (20+ points). People said that FG couldn't lose the GE after 2008, but Corbyn will show them that nothing is a given.

seamus

Shelga wrote: »

Can’t Labour oust Corbyn and install someone like Chuka Ummuna as leader. God, the whole thing is such a mess of epic proportions.

They could, but they don't want to.

Corbyn won two leadership contests in 2015 & 2016, and had a massive election success in 2017, despite being pretty clearly anti-EU.

Labour doesn't know what it wants. The membership backed Remain, but overwhelmingly want a euroskeptic leader.

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

No, because weirdly the members seem to love Corbyn even though he is completely useless at the job, seems to be against everything they want and appears not to care what the rest of the party wants.

Isn't it the case that the grass roots support him because at that level beliefs are largely idealistic and so his socialist claims are not examined too closely. But, within the parliamentary party, where the aim has to be seizing power and enacting policies which are feasible, there is not much love for him.

robinph

At least the Tory process for picking a leader makes sense, in that the leader of their MP's is decided on based on who the MP's pick that they are prepared to follow.

The Labour system being to ask the general public, or anyone that paid their £20 membership fee, what they think. Then regardless of what the rest of the MP's that they will be leading think that is who they MP's have to follow.

dr.fuzzenstein

opinionated3 wrote: »

No bother. Thanks.

Can confirm, wasn't talking about you.