Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

blackcard

Laois_Man wrote: »

David Cameron did not do the cowardly thing - He did the respectable thing! It might not be saying much, but he was a more honorable PM than May is

There are 315 Conservative MP's so 158 is the number that May needs to survive. She doesn't seem like the resigning type but hard to see her struggling on unless she gets 200 or more votes

briany

El Weirdo wrote: »

137 Tory MPs have publicly declared their support for TM. Whether they're telling the truth or not is another matter.

How many votes does she need to defeat the motion of no confidence? 150+?

The irony if she wins by a close vote and all the Brexiteer MPs are still complaining about her.

hill16bhoy

Oh, it's a long, long while from May to December
But the days grow short 'til Britain's no longer a member
When the autumn weather turns Brexit to flames
One hasn't got time for the waiting game

Oh, the days dwindle down to a precious few
September, November
And these few precious days I'll spend with EU
These precious days I'll spend with EU

intellectual dosser

I still wonder if Theresa May is a Remain Wolf in Brexit clothing.

She'll get a mandate from her party later today to pursue her WA (putting ERG in their box). Parliament will still not support her deal. Without a mandate to sign the deal with the EU she'll be 'forced' to go back to the people or to a GE, in which not a single seat in HoC is safe.

She talks about leaving the EU to respect the referendum, but rarely talks about the benefits of leaving. She is painting Labour into being the party of hot air. She hasnt bent over to the DUP...etc. I need to finish the thought process!

Laois_Man

Tell me how wrote: »

Can't agree with that view.

She has done many things wrong but not sure how her honour can be questioned when she picked up a stick dynamite masquerading as a baton.

What do you think she should have done which you would consider as respectful.

Seriously?

NOBODY trusts her. Including the Irish government which is why we're insisting on the backstop - and rightly so.

She never had ANY intention of going ahead with the vote that was supposed to happen yesterday - it was all a time delaying act. She has no problem throwing DUP under the bus and dishonoring their agreement. The Government she leads has been found in contempt - the first time in history it has ever occurred. Any viewing of any HoC exchanges over the last 3 days will see how utterly disingenuous her responses have been time and again. She even lied thru her teeth to get the PM job in the first place. She played both sides of the debate in the referendum campaign itself - hedging her bets. Need I keep going - because I could. I can't believe it's a serious question!

Podge_irl

McGiver wrote: »

How is it staggering?

rUK - £11.3
RoI - £3.9
rEU - £2.0
World - £4.3

RoI exports are "only" 33% of that to the rUK. EU27 exports are still only 50% of that to the rUK. Long way to go to shift the focus from the rUK to the EU and elsewhere.

What would be a more revealing statistic is how much of the rUK trade goes through Dublin. A statistic that doesn't matter a jot right now but will matter a whole deal in 4 months time potentially.

Tell me how

Laois_Man wrote: »

Seriously?

NOBODY trusts her. Including the Irish government which is why we're insisting on the backstop - and rightly so.

She never had ANY intention of going ahead with the vote that was supposed to happen yesterday - it was all a time delaying act. She has no problem throwing DUP under the bus and dishonoring their agreement. The Government she leads has been found in contempt - the first time in history it has ever occurred. Any viewing of any HoC exchanges over the last 3 days will see how utterly disingenuous her responses have been time and again. She even lied thru her teeth to get the PM job in the first place. She played both sides of the debate in the referendum campaign itself - hedging her bets. Need I keep going - because I could. I can't believe it's a serious question!

I think you have no idea of just what manoeuvring in politics means.

I clarify again that she has lots done wrong but the suggestion that she is less honourable than Cameron (or the idiots who decided not to go for the Tory leadership because of the mess that had to be dealt with) is fiction.

bob mcbob

Douglas Thoughtless Headache wrote: »

If they ship up 4yrs worth of the glorious buckfast brew for free, before topping up the wall, peace shall forever prevail.

Geordonia has a ring to it also, perhaps the most isolated urban area of 2.6m they have. While Newcastle voted to remain, the surrounds did not.

4 years of buckfast and Trident nuclear missiles - sounds like a hell of a party to me

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1072839747431792641

Excellent thread on way no matter what way they turn the backstop or a CU is the only outcome.

LuckyLloyd

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I still wonder if Theresa May is a Remain Wolf in Brexit clothing.

She'll get a mandate from her party later today to pursue her WA (putting ERG in their box). Parliament will still not support her deal. Without a mandate to sign the deal with the EU she'll be 'forced' to go back to the people or to a GE, in which not a single seat in HoC is safe.

She talks about leaving the EU to respect the referendum, but rarely talks about the benefits of leaving. She is painting Labour into being the party of hot air. She hasnt bent over to the DUP...etc. I need to finish the thought process!

What benefits?

cml387

Well worth reading. And from a Daily Telegraph journalist no less.

Dyr

I've been away for a few hours, what further ridiculous calamities worthy of an Eastenders cliffhanger have befallen us in the interim?

Army Coup? Corbyn riding unicorn into the house of commons?

PropJoe10

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I still wonder if Theresa May is a Remain Wolf in Brexit clothing.

She'll get a mandate from her party later today to pursue her WA (putting ERG in their box). Parliament will still not support her deal. Without a mandate to sign the deal with the EU she'll be 'forced' to go back to the people or to a GE, in which not a single seat in HoC is safe.

She talks about leaving the EU to respect the referendum, but rarely talks about the benefits of leaving. She is painting Labour into being the party of hot air. She hasnt bent over to the DUP...etc. I need to finish the thought process!

She voted to Remain in the EU herself. I would say she probably still holds the view that the UK is better off in the EU than outside it, but she's trying to follow through on the result of the referendum as that's her job as PM.


Anyway, there's very few if any benefits for the UK if they leave the EU. Not much to say on that at all.

intellectual dosser

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

What benefits?

The ones ERG drone on about...

Take back our borders!
Take back our money!
Take back our laws!

Cleverly did lean on these in the C4 debate but I hear TM predominantly reference respecting the referendum.

Kermit.de.frog

She'll win this comfortably and gain a free pass for a year.

Biggest losers ERG and DUP.

Tell me how

Bambi wrote: »

I've been away for a few hours, what further ridiculous calamities worthy of an Eastenders cliffhanger have befallen us in the interim?

Army Coup? Corbyn riding unicorn into the house of commons?

Michael Gove was literally accosted by Santa Claus.

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1072852657528815619

Thatnastyboy

intellectual dosser wrote: »

The ones ERG drone on about...

Take back our borders!
Take back our money!
Take back our laws!

Cleverly did lean on these in the C4 debate but I hear TM predominantly reference respecting the referendum.

Are there any genuine tangible benefits to them leaving? Surely when you look from an objective viewpoint there HAS to be something?? other than soundbytes obviously

The whole exercise is baffling, I have read every post in this (and many other) thread, I have tried to get as deep an understanding of the whole scenario & process and no matter what I do, I just cannot grasp what the British are trying to achieve.

intellectual dosser

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

She'll win this comfortably and gain a free pass for a year.

Biggest losers ERG and DUP.

ERG for sure, but not so much the DUP.

If May wins, they'll need to decide if they will continue supporting the government, and their rhetoric in the last few days suggest they wont.

Then again the DUP may suffer under the GE they'd trigger, so they may not follow through on their words.

Kermit.de.frog

intellectual dosser wrote: »

ERG for sure, but not so much the DUP.

If May wins, they'll need to decide if they will continue supporting the government, and their rhetoric in the last few days suggest they wont.

Then again the DUP may suffer under the GE they'd trigger, so they may not follow through on their words.

Backstop will be rock solid concrete if she wins. DUP don't have the balls to bring down the govt.

Arguably after threatening her they are the biggest loser if she wins.

Nody

Thatnastyboy wrote: »

Are there any genuine tangible benefits to them leaving? Surely when you look from an objective viewpoint there HAS to be something?? other than soundbytes obviously

There are tangible benefits for a very limited number of people who will benefit from the crash (be it pound, businesses or property) in a disaster economy style. Others want to turn UK into little USA in terms of regulation for similar reasons (though I'd not be surprised if there is one or two idealists in there from rich families who'll not be impacted anyway).

Folkstonian

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Backstop will be rock solid concrete if she wins. DUP don't have the balls to bring down the govt.

Arguably after threatening her they are the biggest loser if she wins.

A win doesn’t give her a free pass to do anything.

But more pertinently, with no credible alternative on the table, people were predicting she would get her withdrawal agreement through parliament comfortably enough.

She pulled the vote because even she realised she faced a humiliating rout.

I definitely wouldn’t be counting chickens before the result of tonight’s vote is officially released.

fash

cml387 wrote: »

Well worth reading. And from a Daily Telegraph journalist no less.

Peter Foster is a really good journalist on brexit, well worth keeping up with.

swampgas

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1072839747431792641

Excellent thread on way no matter what way they turn the backstop or a CU is the only outcome.

Good line from that thread:

Ultimately the backstop crystallizes those choices the UK does not want to make.

It is the prism where ideology collides unhappily with reality.

Hard choices need to be made by the UK. They need to decide which humiliating climb-down to make:

• Reverse Brexit, admit they really do need the EU much more than it needs them, and that actually the EU is *ahem* quite a good thing
• Take May's deal, and admit that they are now much worse off than they were before, except with control over FOM that they will probably never use
• Crash out, break the GFA, and beg for mercy from the EU and the WTO as their country goes into meltdown.

There are no good options, just bad, really bad and catastrophic ones.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

She'll win this comfortably and gain a free pass for a year.

Biggest losers ERG and DUP.

I agree on the ERG, this seems like the final throw of the dice for them in terms of TM.

But not sure how the DUP lose out. They won't lose any seats in any GE and they havn't really got anything from TM in terms of Brexit.

Thatnastyboy

Nody wrote: »

There are tangible benefits for a very limited number of people who will benefit from the crash (be it pound, businesses or property) in a disaster economy style. Others want to turn UK into little USA in terms of regulation for similar reasons (though I'd not be surprised if there is one or two idealists in there from rich families who'll not be impacted anyway).

I see, but for the country or the "people" - There are little to no benefits?

I am well aware of the drawbacks, I just find it hard to believe that the good people of the UK are just allowing this ****show to continue.

It really does seem there are now 2 options on the table - no deal, or cancel the lot.

A no deal brexit will be an unmitigated disaster, cancelling brexit will cause serious unease - that won't go away. I doubt it could reach civil war levels but there would be a perpetual resounding "this wouldn't have happened if we'd left the EU" every time something less than perfect happens...


And it pretty much all stems from the signwriting on the side of a bus

I think I might put some money on no Brexit. I don't know the odds but it's the only thing I see happening.

intellectual dosser

intellectual dosser wrote: »

She needs 158

Latest count is 174 publicly supporting her

For the record this is now apparently 159 because an Andrew Griffiths has had the party whip restored (maybe he can no longer vote??)

Sam Russell

Thatnastyboy wrote: »

I see, but for the country or the "people" - There are little to no benefits?

I am well aware of the drawbacks, I just find it hard to believe that the good people of the UK are just allowing this ****show to continue.

It really does seem there are now 2 options on the table - no deal, or cancel the lot.

A no deal brexit will be an unmitigated disaster, cancelling brexit will cause serious unease - that won't go away. I doubt it could reach civil war levels but there would be a perpetual resounding "this wouldn't have happened if we'd left the EU" every time something less than perfect happens...


And it pretty much all stems from the signwriting on the side of a bus

It was not sign writing, it was stick on plastic - they had to reuse the bus for the election that lost them their majority.

They need a GE - just to clear this nonsense from the politcal sphere - but they have no leadership anywhere in the HOC. Tories have TM - who lies more than tells the truth. Labour have Jezza who is a Brexiteer but leads a party most of whom are remainers. LibDems have a leader I cannot remember his name but who missed a vital vote on Brexit.

It needs a national government to reverse this pantomime. TM standing at the dispatch box calling for unity - with Labour MPs shouting 'They're behind you!' and Tory MPs shouting 'No we're not - we want her gone!'

It has gone beyond farce. If only Spitting Image was still in business.

Laois_Man

Tell me how wrote: »

I think you have no idea of just what manoeuvring in politics means.

I clarify again that she has lots done wrong but the suggestion that she is less honourable than Cameron (or the idiots who decided not to go for the Tory leadership because of the mess that had to be dealt with) is fiction.

I have just described her maneuvering in politics

You're seriously trying to pass off contempt of Parliament as honorable political maneuvering??

5 People attempted to win the Tory leadership (Leadsom, Gove, Fox, Crabb and Boris) - did you expect everyone in the party to go for it

As others have said many times on this thread, May will have to be dragged out of #10 kicking and screaming. Her management of the entire Brexit process has been a shambles as her 2017 General Election campaign and result also were. Cameron went freely and quickly and of his own volition which was the honorable thing to do for the good of his country and his party. May doesn't give a shiit about the good of either - it's all about her. The British feel humiliated at the way she has handled this, not just lately, it's been building up for 2 and a half years. And that doesn't even include matters separate to Brexit such as Windbrush

robinph

An MP who was suspended from the party due to sexting has just been let back in so now May needs 159 votes rather than the 158 she needed this morning. The guy just let back in has said he'll vote for her though, so not really much difference.