Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Hurrache

Water John wrote: »

incl a former whip telling them that MPs are great liars.

Often qualified today as being especially applicable to the Torys.

devnull

MP has now spoke to Sky News confirming that he believes that his fellow MPs are liars and actually not supporting TM despite saying so publicly.

https://twitter.com/MelHand_Teacher/status/1072935610241949698

(saw it myself but showing a tweet from public to add credibility)

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

She'll win comfortably in my opinion.

There is no other credible way forward, no credible potential leadership options.

When push comes to shove pragmatism wins out...

I'll guess 2:1 (214-104)

Captain Obvious

Is it not a public vote? Is it being broadcast?

Itssoeasy

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Is it not a public vote? Is it being broadcast?

Nope it's a private vote within the Conservative party. What others are saying is that just because many Conservative MPs said on twitter or otherwise doesn't bind them when they are voting privately.

bilston

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I'll guess 2:1 (214-104)

Yeah let's all play that game...although I think it's 317 not 318 Tory MPs.

242-75 to May

devnull

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Is it not a public vote? Is it being broadcast?

Secret Ballot - so you can see why people will say publicly they are backing TM but vote against her.

There was a leadership election with Thatcher and also Ian Duncan-Smith in the past where it looked like both would easily win but they didn't, because ultimately many of the MPs said they would vote one way and voted another.

Personally anyone who has said one thing publicly and do another thing privately shouldn't be involved in politics - it's one thing for people to change their mind, but openly lying to score points is the kind of politician that are not needed in politics.

4068ac1elhodqr

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I'll guess 2:1 (214-104)

The markets suggest there will only be between 99-109 agaisnt her, so yes 104.5 is about the average. After all who would actually want the job.

bilston

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Is it not a public vote? Is it being broadcast?

Secret ballot

Water John

I think a camera will be allowed in once the ballot closes.

hill16bhoy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I'll guess 2:1 (214-104)

I'll go with 184-134.

Water John

Anything near that 130 against prediction would be very bad for her, totally lame duck. Sky confirm a camera in the room.

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

Often qualified today as being especially applicable to the Torys.

Ian Dunt doesn't seem to value her word as being of much value,

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1072942567862517761

devnull

Water John wrote: »

Anything near that 130 against prediction would be very bad for her, totally lame duck.

Would be a bigger mandate than they is for Brexit.

Watch the ERG say she has no mandate if she only gets 60-40 in her favour, being the same people who claim 52-48 is a clear mandate.

hill16bhoy

If it's only 86 that's more than sufficient for May to be secure in her job.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1072942071554686977

briany

devnull wrote: »

Would be a bigger mandate than they is for Brexit.

Watch the ERG say she has no mandate if she only gets 60-40 in her favour, being the same people who claim 52-48 is a clear mandate.

What slippery language would Mogg employ in that case in order to dodge accusations of hypocrisy I wonder?

Water John

I'd be surprised if anyone really knows. Former 1922 chair says they should be counted in 10 mins.

briany

A win here would be another middle finger to those who said she wouldn't last six months in the job. Might have to start calling her 'The Barnacle'.

Water John

Mrs. Mediocre would be nearer the mark.

syngindub

Wonder if she will still go to Brussels tomorrow if she doesnt get the vote

devnull

syngindub wrote: »

Wonder if she will still go to Brussels tomorrow if she doesnt get the vote

She would as she'd no longer be leader of the Tory party but she'd still be Prime Minister until a new leader is chosen.

blackcard

How will the result be announced? By who? In camera?

Water John

Don't know, but hints being given to journalists about what margin is needed for it to be comfortable. Some of those being low eg margin of 50, others saying 200 for her needed.

branie2

I wouldn't be surprised if the vote is no confidence.

Itssoeasy

blackcard wrote: »

How will the result be announced ? By who? In camera?

On camera and by sir graham brady the chairman of the 1922 committee sometime around 9pm, although a former chairman said on sky that's its 316 votes with three people counting so it should be far quicker than an hour.

Enzokk

Itssoeasy wrote: »

On camera and by sir graham brady the chairman of the 1922 committee sometime around 9pm, although a former chairman said on sky that's its 316 votes with three people counting so it should be far quicker than an hour.

According to this tweet the results will be delivered and broadcast at 9pm.

https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1072946022723321857

bilston

Enzokk wrote: »

According to this tweet the results will be delivered and broadcast at 9pm.

https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1072946022723321857

Aye...I'd say there is a reason the BBC aren't starting their news special until 8.30 on BBC1

Itssoeasy

Enzokk wrote: »

According to this tweet the results will be delivered and broadcast at 9pm.

https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1072946022723321857

Right, so even if the result is known before 9pm it won't be known until then. Runs the risk of it leaking out before hand though doesn't it ?

4068ac1elhodqr

Would like to see one of her trademark boogie woogies robo-dances up to the press for her victory speech.
Just to lighten up the mood, if nothing else.

Capt'n Midnight

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Hearrrrrrrrrr hearrrrrrrrrr

I know pmqs is mostly theatre, but this is pure pantomime.

Oh no it isn't


If May looses the Brexiteers could put lots of names forward just to drag out the process to get a default leave.