Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

An Ciarraioch

brickster69 wrote: »

they will never ever admit they were wrong
First they have to find out if they were wrong before they can admit to it.

If you only follow one Twitter a/c, Peter Ungphakorn of the WTO is a good starting point - even if the UK does achieve the laissez-faire WTO endpoint of the Brexiteers, he has repeatedly highlighted how the non-EU members are seeking significantly advantageous trading terms in the UK market, rather than "grandfathering" their current share under EU agreements. Bryce Baschuk has also written extensively on this.

demfad

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Is that not the single market?
I'm open to correction here but I don't think there is a single commercial provision that can be directly tied to the GFA

Yes it has facilitated cooperation by providing stability, but market integration was achieved without it through common EU membership

Strand two deals with North South cooperation and setting up of North South bodies in many areas. For example the Single Electricity Market was set up this way. Strand two allows for Inter Governmental cooperation far and above what would be possible with SM/CU membership alone.
A way to look at it is that the SM is the legal base on which cooperation is possible to a degree that allows fully functioning Institutions and cross border entities. This allows economies of scale and opportunities for other business, increasing cross border activities and also helping border areas.

Strand 2 also sets out that the North-South Ministerial Council, which promotes all-island cooperation, will “consider the European Union dimension of relevant matters, including the implementation of EU policies and programmes…”and that “arrangements to be made to ensure that the views of the Council are taken into account and represented appropriately at relevant EU meetings.”
Clearly the UK and Ireland's membership of the EU were envisaged when Strand 2 has been drawn up. Strand 2 was a tool to achieve the desired outcomes.
Not alone are these desired outcomes massacred by hard Brexit, all past achievements in cooperation are de facto gone too (eg Single Electricity Market).
These outcomes are disparaged by some Unionist commentators who argue that the text is not breached and it is just nationalist waffle about the "spirit" of the GFA which is intangible and indefinable.
I disagree. The GFA text is a tool to reach the desired outcomes required to move NI forward.
When the lights go out after the first powercut when the SEM goes: it could be a good tangible symptom of the spirit of the GFA being extinguished.



Note: Also at risk the Special EU Programmes Body which was one of the North-South implementation bodies set up under the GFA and delivery agent for the EU Programme for Peace and Reconciliation in the north. No EU, No SEUPB. No money.

An Ciarraioch

British applications for French and German citizenship have risen significantly:

http://www.thejournal.ie/nazi-refugee-survivors-german-passports-brexit-4295271-Oct2018/

20silkcut

brickster69 wrote: »

I don't see how it is "serious knock" to the EU
Of course it is a serious knock to the EU. Not that i personally want to see that happen.
It is a big erosion of the EU's power. It will never again reach what it had with the UK as a member and only erode further as other non contributing members join. You can be pretty sure also that any trade deals struck while the UK was a member will be revisited by all parties concerned.
Of course the UK will be significantly worse off also. Sounds like a lose lose situation for everyone.

Support for remaining in the EU has increased in Ireland since brexit.
Anti EU sentiment has declined in other countries since brexit too.


Remember when grexit was a prospect ?
Hear nothing About that any more.

The agricultural lobby will be a lot stronger in the EU with the UK gone.

It’s only a few short years since Peter mandelson tried to sell EU agriculture down the river. UK was a very anti CAP member. They won’t be missed by EU agri sector. Their money will but their influence and ideology won’t.

bob mcbob

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

There is an element of PR spin in the way the media has framed the Tory party in Scotland as if they were separate party - they are not and the MPs come under the leadership of May and the Tory whip. Davidson has one policy and that is anti-Scottish independence and that is it really

You are absolutely spot on about those MPs though, all 13 of them should be representing their constituents and they do not

Agreed.
To give you an idea about liberal Ruth, when the SNP proposed freezing income tax rates in Scotland to provide extra funding for the NHS, the Scottish Tories voted against it in Holyrood. Two weeks later, Ruth was writing a column in the Telegraph (I think) which said that taxes in the UK should be raised to provide additional funding for the NHS.

Enzokk

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

There is an element of PR spin in the way the media has framed the Tory party in Scotland as if they were separate party - they are not and the MPs come under the leadership of May and the Tory whip. Davidson has one policy and that is anti-Scottish independence and that is it really

You are absolutely spot on about those MPs though, all 13 of them should be representing their constituents and they do not

True about her not really being a leader of the MP's in the House of Commons, I never thought about it like that. That does make it interesting seeing that she runs on the name of the Conservative Party and is their leader in Scotland, but actually doesn't represent Scotland at all. It mirrors the relationship of the SNP with Westminster, the English parties just doesn't care about the people of Scotland. She is standing behind that name which should be unfortunate for her at the next election as you know the SNP will hammer her colleagues on this point.

As for those 13 MPs, I know it is easy to question the votes of the Labour MPs of leave constituencies but at least they are listening to the voters. It is a paradox where it seems that Brexiteers want Labour MPs to vote for Brexit because their voters did so, yet in Scotland there is no talk of those 13 votes even thinking of switching.

That is why I am baffled the Conservatives are still a major party as they have shown consistently that their MPs will favour party over country, yet they still get the votes. A two party system really is the weakness of democracy and is actually totally against what is should be when people just vote for a party because, and not for what they stand.

First Up

brickster69 wrote:

Of course it is a serious knock to the EU. Not that i personally want to see that happen. It is a big erosion of the EU's power. It will never again reach what it had with the UK as a member and only erode further as other non contributing members join. You can be pretty sure also that any trade deals struck while the UK was a member will be revisited by all parties concerned. Of course the UK will be significantly worse off also. Sounds like a lose lose situation for everyone.

Both the EU and UK will be worse off. The difference is that the EU is fully aware of the downside, whereas much of the UK is still in dreamland.

UK industry is giving it to May & Co with both barrels but its hard to get through to people with their hands over their ears.

The EU also knows that whatever the cost of Brexit, it will be less than the cost of damaging the Single Market. No compromise on that.

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, how snubbing Moldova last year could cost the UK dearly with the WTO:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/how-tiny-moldova-s-brexit-grudge-could-cost-u-k-1-7-trillion?fbclid=IwAR1NZyh704tvOuLCeI8znY53woSY-n_V7FZicQIJ2vY6RCFUFWtdX3DV2_Y

An Ciarraioch

And some TV stations may well move here to retain the right to broadcast to the EU:

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/oct/18/sky-warns-disney-and-discovery-of-no-deal-brexit-blackout?fbclid=IwAR0Zk0GFkDyQ4kaFsSf5FwBC-YeWf8Ilc6fXwy_oGnyXEG1opquMTdEeKYE

BonnieSituation

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, how snubbing Moldova last year could cost the UK dearly with the WTO:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/how-tiny-moldova-s-brexit-grudge-could-cost-u-k-1-7-trillion?fbclid=IwAR1NZyh704tvOuLCeI8znY53woSY-n_V7FZicQIJ2vY6RCFUFWtdX3DV2_Y

That warms the cockles

megatron989

The UK contributes a large wedge their can be no doubt. But where does that money come from? How is it generated? Industry and services? Car makers and banks? How many of these will stay in the UK after a no deal? How much of that generating potential will decide to up sticks and move back into the union? I may be phrasing that badly but you get my train of taught?
The UK economy, if it shrinks, the generating potential doesn't dissappear, Toyota for example won't go out of business. It moves.

Spook_ie

Is it possible where WTO rules say that UK must treat other countries in the same way, could that be that no tariffs on goods arriving via a land border but tariffs on anything arriving by air/sea, that leaves the EU and Ireland to check what's coming in to the EU to ensure its being re exported to the UK.

brickster69

The difference is that the EU is fully aware of the downside, whereas much of the UK is still in dreamland.
The EU understand fine well the downside i agree. But they cannot do a thing about it. Once the ECB turn off the printing presses you will see what happens within a year or two.
Italy is the Euro zones  biggest problem.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4114594-ray-dalios-shorting-entire-eu

First Up

brickster69 wrote:

The difference is that the EU is fully aware of the downside, whereas much of the UK is still in dreamland. The EU understand fine well the downside i agree. But they cannot do a thing about it. Once the ECB turn off the printing presses you will see what happens within a year or two. Italy is the Euro zones biggest problem.

Can't do a thing about what?

brickster69

First Up wrote: »

brickster69 wrote:

The difference is that the EU is fully aware of the downside, whereas much of the UK is still in dreamland. The EU understand fine well the downside i agree. But they cannot do a thing about it. Once the ECB turn off the printing presses you will see what happens within a year or two. Italy is the Euro zones biggest problem.

Can't do a thing about what?

The downside

First Up

brickster69 wrote:

The downside

Depends on which aspect of the downside you are talking about.

Kermit.de.frog

BREAKING

UK concedes on open ended backstop, UK would remain in CU, NI to remain in elements of SM with new checks in Irish sea!

As said no time limit.

This according to Bloomberg

Sterling has risen sharply on the news.

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

BREAKING

UK concedes on open ended backstop, UK would remain in CU, NI to remain in elements of SM with new checks in Irish sea!

As said no time limit.

This according to Bloomberg

Sterling has risen sharply on the news.

Great news for us all if true

But the Tories at home can still bury this

Rhineshark

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

BREAKING

UK concedes on open ended backstop, UK would remain in CU, NI to remain in elements of SM with new checks in Irish sea!

As said no time limit.

This according to Bloomberg

Sterling has risen sharply on the news.

Sources so far? Good news if it gets anywhere though! Er, has anyone told the DUP yet?

And now Scotland..

Scoondal

To be more positive ... the upside.
We finally get UK out of Ireland's society and economy.
I am looking forward to 29 March 2019. The start of Ireland's new future.
Let's just get on with it.

trellheim

only bloomberg so far the usual sources are not showing anything but it is friday night ...

link here https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-19/u-k-is-said-to-drop-brexit-demand-on-irish-border-to-ease-deal?srnd=premium-europe

this imight be a misreading of this con call though see Faisal's tweet
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1053346691515146240

PS Tony Connelly on Marr on Sunday morning and I'd say it'll be a doozy this week

Rhineshark

'Ang on.

This agreement is the UK staying in the CU potentially open-ended. However they still demand no NI backstop.

What would happen here is that they gradually unwind from the EU, safely behind their UK-wide backstop and then shimmy off whenever they liked and RoI and NI could go hang by my reading of the Bloomberg article.

She's slithering but nothing's nailed down acceptably yet. That offer won't be acceptable.

Scoondal

Rhineshark wrote: »

'Ang on.

This agreement is the UK staying in the CU potentially open-ended. However they still demand no NI backstop.

What would happen here is that they gradually unwind from the EU, safely behind their UK-wide backstop and then shimmy off whenever they liked and RoI and NI could go hang by my reading of the Bloomberg article.

She's slithering but nothing's nailed down acceptably yet. That offer won't be acceptable.

UK PM has no chance of this being voted through. The UK people and MPs want UK out by 29 March.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

BREAKING

UK concedes on open ended backstop, UK would remain in CU, NI to remain in elements of SM with new checks in Irish sea!

As said no time limit.

This according to Bloomberg

Sterling has risen sharply on the news.

Not entirely surprising but you have to wonder if she thinks she has enough votes from Labour to have this pass.

A few problems still persists, this doesn't allow the UK to have its own trade deals as they are in the customs union for at least another 10 years while the trade deal with the EU is being negotiated. This will set off the ERG so that is 40 or so votes she will lose.

Then you have the regulatory alignment being different between NI and the rest of the UK, so that is possibly 10 and if they abstain 5 votes from the DUP that she will need to find. So that makes around 45 Labour votes she will need to find.

Seeing that this agreement does not meet the six tests of Labour you can expect Corbyn to whip his MPs to vote against the deal. It will be interesting to see how this goes from here, either she passes it with Labour help and Corbyn loses his party as this would be another vote that could bring about a general election, or we have another leader. Seeing that the talk has been of David Davis being touted to take over, well it should be an interesting few weeks and months ahead.

RobMc59

A lot of voters in the UK feel they were lied to in the referendum and the call to have another vote is gaining popularity-personally,I think strength is in unity(remaining in the EU),the days of the UK as a major world player have long gone and it should embrace the EU-it`s better for everyone in the long run.

Scoondal

Why would UK MPs take any account of the UK border in Ireland. If May thinks she can get an agreement to a transition phase, her own MPs will vote against her and it will not happen. They want out of EU on 29 March. It seems everything is agreed except the border.
I see a no deal Brexit. And I think that is the best thing for Ireland. We need to learn that we can survive without UK. It will be tough, but we need to accept this. Let's move forward in Ireland without this reliance on UK. We are a good country of hard working people. We can survive and do well with less UK influence over our trade, culture and society.
I hope there is no deal.

Indestructable

If May comes out with this plan before the budget the DUP will likely bring down the government by voting against said budget.

Enzokk

Scoondal wrote: »

Why would UK MPs take any account of the UK border in Ireland. If May thinks she can get an agreement to a transition phase, her own MPs will vote against her and it will not happen. They want out of EU on 29 March. It seems everything is agreed except the border.
I see a no deal Brexit. And I think that is the best thing for Ireland. We need to learn that we can survive without UK. It will be tough, but we need to accept this. Let's move forward in Ireland without this reliance on UK. We are a good country of hard working people. We can survive and do well with less UK influence over our trade, culture and society.
I hope there is no deal.

Unfortunately we aren't only talking about how this would effect us economically. You have the past history on the island that needs to be considered. Now you may not see an immediate return to the height of the troubles if there is no deal and a border, but you can be sure there will be a rise in tensions that will make a return to violence more possible. To allow that to happen is not acceptable from the two countries that have signed the treaty. It is up to the UK to realize this and if they want to leave they are going to have to jettison NI by having different regulations and tariffs or they will need to stay in the EU. David Cameron should have known this and probably did but he gambled with other people's lives.

As for other news, we have this statement from Toyota. More project fear from those experts people are tired of hearing from.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1053242539468296192

Rhineshark

Scoondal wrote: »

Why would UK MPs take any account of the UK border in Ireland. If May thinks she can get an agreement to a transition phase, her own MPs will vote against her and it will not happen. They want out of EU on 29 March. It seems everything is agreed except the border.
I see a no deal Brexit. And I think that is the best thing for Ireland. We need to learn that we can survive without UK. It will be tough, but we need to accept this. Let's move forward in Ireland without this reliance on UK. We are a good country of hard working people. We can survive and do well with less UK influence over our trade, culture and society.
I hope there is no deal.

And to hell with the border counties? If it's a hard border, those counties will suffer, much like they did before the GFA.

We don't need to rely on the UK. But given our geographic proximity, we could do with co-operation.

Leroy42

This is just another TM promise to whomever she happens to be speaking to at the time. She has so many condradictory positions I doubt even she knows what she is supposed to be saying.


My read from that is TM trying to buy a bit of time from the business community. Thats it.

It literally means nothing.