Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

First Up

pH wrote:

Of course I do. A trade deal will need to be done between the UK and the EU to decide what tariffs apply to which goods and what standards apply to them. If this is very close to 'free trade' then whatever slight anomalies there are can be handled away from border posts themselves. If both side take a protectionist position and all sorts of tariffs and trade restrictions are imposed then a border checks will be required on both sides.

There is no "deal" to be done about standards. Either UK goods (or goods imported into the UK from elsewhere) comply with EU standards or they don't. If they don't, they don't get in.

Tariffs are negotiable. Standards are not

pH

Strazdas wrote: »

Are you aware that 60% of NI's exports to GB go through the Republic's ports?

And how much of our exports are land-bridged to Europe via the UK? There is definitely a huge opportunity for a bonded warehouse type exporting to allow goods not destined for a local market to move freely though (obviously at a price!)

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/irish-shipping-firms-plan-to-bypass-british-ports-with-direct-routes-to-europe-36782777.html

Irish haulage firms are looking for (and finding) ways to avoid the UK, I'm sure NI firms will figure out something similar. Remember if the withdrawal agreement isn't agreed they have £38bn they they had earmarked for the EU to spend on such things, perhaps NI should petition for some of it to be invested in port infrastructure instead?

Blowfish

mickoneill31 wrote: »

So the UK won't be able to store any EU personal information? That's another disaster for them if that was true. I thought they were going to comply with gdpr after Brexit.

There are a couple of different methods that allow transfer of personal data to non EEA countries, one of the primary ones being that the country is judged to have adequate safeguards under law. It's up to the EU Commission to make the adequacy decision and while it's unlikely the UK won't receive one, the process hasn't even started yet so it's seriously debatable whether there'd be enough time to complete it by 29th March in a no deal scenario.

I can tell you from personal experience in my own job that this has been taken into account for a fair while now when it comes to making vendor/supplier decisions and some UK companies have already lost out on business as we found that they just haven't planned at all for the no deal scenario.

Leroy42

pH wrote: »

Of course I do. A trade deal will need to be done between the UK and the EU to decide what tariffs apply to which goods and what standards apply to them. If this is very close to 'free trade' then whatever slight anomalies there are can be handled away from border posts themselves. If both side take a protectionist position and all sorts of tariffs and trade restrictions are imposed then a border checks will be required on both sides.

I can see no chance that NI remains in the customs union and single market after Brexit. It would be financial suicide for them to have a hard border between themselves and the rest of the UK, which as I pointed out is a much more important trading partner than RoI and the EU. I have no idea how legislation to do this could be passed who would enforce such a border, who they would report to, what legal powers they would have etc.

There is still a small chance that all of the UK will remain in something like the customs union and single market, I think that is more likely than a NI only solution, but at present it's not something that I think is likely.

Anyway as I said before this is all a moot point, Ireland believes it already has a guarantee to an open border in the GFA so there's nothing really to worry about here is there, from a border perspective?

But without a border in NI how can the UK impose any tariffs, or even threaten to? they will have nothing to negotiate in terms of a trade deal.

And is it because of that that the insistence from the Brexiteers that the UK will not man a border in NI is totally nonsensical.

Spook_ie

Strazdas wrote: »

Are you aware that 60% of NI's exports to GB go through the Republic's ports?

That only makes them a Southern Irish export by a technicality.

PeadarCo

pH wrote:

Of course I do. A trade deal will need to be done between the UK and the EU to decide what tariffs apply to which goods and what standards apply to them. If this is very close to 'free trade' then whatever slight anomalies there are can be handled away from border posts themselves. If both side take a protectionist position and all sorts of tariffs and trade restrictions are imposed then a border checks will be required on both sides.

Then why mention German car manufacturers? The people who are most interested in a soft border are those that live near it. There have been signs calling for a soft border up beside border roads for at least the last year.

There is also the security issue something which the PSNI foresees as a security issue. Putting up border posts in nationalist areas alot of which happen to be beside the border is effectively putting up adverts for dissident republicans.

pH

Leroy42 wrote: »

But without a border in NI how can the UK impose any tariffs, or even threaten to? they will have nothing to negotiate in terms of a trade deal.

And is it because of that that the insistence from the Brexiteers that the UK will not man a border in NI is totally nonsensical.

I don't understand the question. Let's say there's a 20% import tariff into the UK on EU milk (agreed in a trade deal, the EU is taxing UK Cheddar at 20% too!) You don't have to stand at the border checking milk lorries, the tax can be added when the milk arrives at a food processing plant etc. People trying to avoid the tax would need to be discovered and prosecuted. Yes it's not as efficient a means of enforcing the tax as border checks and queues of lorries, but it is possible to do away from the border, especially assuming that both the UK and EU were going to stay pretty aligned and have something close to a free-trade deal, so the amount of checking needed was at a minimum.

LeinsterDub

pH wrote: »

I don't understand the question. Let's say there's a 20% import tariff into the UK on EU milk (agreed in a trade deal, the EU is taxing UK Cheddar at 20% too!) You don't have to stand at the border checking milk lorries, the tax can be added when the milk arrives at a food processing plant etc. People trying to avoid the tax would need to be discovered and prosecuted. Yes it's not as efficient a means of enforcing the tax as border checks and queues of lorries, but it is possible to do away from the border, especially assuming that both the UK and EU were going to stay pretty aligned and have something close to a free-trade deal, so the amount of checking needed was at a minimum.

Sounds like a smugglers paradise

20silkcut

pH wrote: »

Of course I do. A trade deal will need to be done between the UK and the EU to decide what tariffs apply to which goods and what standards apply to them. If this is very close to 'free trade' then whatever slight anomalies there are can be handled away from border posts themselves. If both side take a protectionist position and all sorts of tariffs and trade restrictions are imposed then a border checks will be required on both sides.

I can see no chance that NI remains in the customs union and single market after Brexit. It would be financial suicide for them to have a hard border between themselves and the rest of the UK, which as I pointed out is a much more important trading partner than RoI and the EU. I have no idea how legislation to do this could be passed who would enforce such a border, who they would report to, what legal powers they would have etc.

There is still a small chance that all of the UK will remain in something like the customs union and single market, I think that is more likely than a NI only solution, but at present it's not something that I think is likely.

Anyway as I said before this is all a moot point, Ireland believes it already has a guarantee to an open border in the GFA so there's nothing really to worry about here is there, from a border perspective?

Are you proposing a border away from the current border ?

A hard border around Antrim,Down North Armagh perhaps??

murphaph

pH wrote: »

And how much of our exports are land-bridged to Europe via the UK? There is definitely a huge opportunity for a bonded warehouse type exporting to allow goods not destined for a local market to move freely though (obviously at a price!)

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/irish-shipping-firms-plan-to-bypass-british-ports-with-direct-routes-to-europe-36782777.html

Irish haulage firms are looking for (and finding) ways to avoid the UK, I'm sure NI firms will figure out something similar. Remember if the withdrawal agreement isn't agreed they have £38bn they they had earmarked for the EU to spend on such things, perhaps NI should petition for some of it to be invested in port infrastructure instead?

They do in their eye have £38bn extra. Brexit is already costing them half a billion a week in lost business and it hasn't even happened.

zapitastas

PeadarCo wrote: »

Then why mention German car manufacturers? The people who are most interested in a soft border are those that live near it. There have been signs calling for a soft border up beside border roads for at least the last year.

There is also the security issue something which the PSNI foresees as a security issue. Putting up border posts in nationalist areas alot of which happen to be beside the border is effectively putting up adverts for dissident republicans.

Not even dissidents. You could see a lot of civil disobedience depending on the type of infrastructure. An incident happens during protests and we could see a slip back to hostilities

trellheim

Lets look at Presidencies

1 Council of the European Union - Elected ? No - not a person but a country. Its a rotating job every 6 months among countries. Currently Austria , then Romania and Finland. We are next up in 2026

2. European Council. Currently Donald Tusk ( from Poland) Elected - Yes, by the EU28 Heads of Govt.

3. European Commission - Jean-Claude Juncker (from Luxembourg ) in the job . Is it Elected - Yes. Nominations from the European Council and Elected by the European Parliament

4. European Parliament - Antonio Tajani ( from Italy) in the hotseat there. Is it elected ? Yes, by the European Parliament .


Speaking as the man on the 46a I can't vote for any of those directly but given Ireland's size I like our man having a 1/28th say in (2) and the same stake in being able to nominate for (3)
You'd need a change to Lisbon Treaty to get popular franchise for any of those jobs but as someone rightly said upthread you can't vote for Taoiseach directly either.

murphaph

The matter NIs balance of payments is secondary. They do "export" twice as much to GB than the EU but the Irish government is not insisting on an invisible border to protect NI business. The GFA takes precedence here. The UK signed it with us in good faith and they don't get to walk away from it.

A hard border might be better for NI economically (not at all certain IMO but whatever) but it certainly wouldn't do anything but damage border counties in the republic and our government has a right to insist on the terms and spirit of the GFA being adhered to.

Brexit damages NI economically no matter which option. It's not our job to minimise that damage. Our job is to minimise the damage to the republic first and foremost.

pH

murphaph wrote: »

They do in their eye have £38bn extra. Brexit is already costing them half a billion a week in lost business and it hasn't even happened.

There's a big difference between a net GDP figure and money received in taxes, the UK take about 34% of GDP in taxes, so if they lose £0.5bn per week that's a loss of GDP of £25bn, which is a loss to the exchequer of £8bn. You've got to remember that £38bn is actual cold hard cash, which represents the taxes in the UK on GDP of £140bn (ish)

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

Lets look at Presidencies

1 Council of the European Union - Elected ? No - not a person but a country. Its a rotating job every 6 months among countries. Currently Austria , then Romania and Finland. We are next up in 2026

2. European Council. Currently Donald Tusk ( from Poland) Elected - Yes, by the EU28 Heads of Govt.

3. European Commission - Jean-Claude Juncker (from Luxembourg ) in the job . Is it Elected - Yes. Nominations from the European Council and Elected by the European Parliament

4. European Parliament - Antonio Tajani ( from Italy) in the hotseat there. Is it elected ? Yes, by the European Parliament .


Speaking as the man on the 46a I can't vote for any of those directly but given Ireland's size I like our man having a 1/28th say in (2) and the same stake in being able to nominate for (3)
You'd need a change to Lisbon Treaty to get popular franchise for any of those jobs but as someone rightly said upthread you can't vote for Taoiseach directly either.

There is nothing to stop any country from electing their EU Commissioner in anyway the like. They all choose to appoint their Commissioner - usually a politician but not always. The new Commission must be approved by the EU Parliament. So more democratic oversight.

Rhineshark

murphaph wrote: »

The matter NIs balance of payments is secondary. They do "export" twice as much to GB than the EU but the Irish government is not insisting on an invisible border to protect NI business. The GFA takes precedence here. The UK signed it with us in good faith and they don't get to walk away from it.

A hard border might be better for NI economically (not at all certain IMO but whatever) but it certainly wouldn't do anything but damage border counties in the republic and our government has a right to insist on the terms and spirit of the GFA being adhered to.

Brexit damages NI economically no matter which option. It's not our job to minimise that damage. Our job is to minimise the damage to the republic first and foremost.

Tbh, a hard border is terrible for NI anyway. Britain could make far easier allowances for imports from NI than it can with third country, the all-island markets will be destroyed. It will cause a lot of issues with healthcare too. And not sure where it leaves their electricity supply.

However, I do get the sneaking impression that that matters less when people think only nationalist communities are impacted. Which has been coming across as more of a feature than a bug.

An Claidheamh

prinzeugen wrote: »

I am from the UK (Scotland) but in Dublin not that its any of your business.

Take your head out your arse and look at the EU. Its a huge mess.

For those of you wondering about the level of education our British friend has.

Here's a post from the British war poppy forum, where he or she actually brags about the bloody British empire (while simultaneously giving out about the EU here - couldn't make it up)


"As did the French when they were not surrendering to someone. If fact the French were and still are more imperialistic than Britain.

And the French were more barbaric than Britain ever was. France was still importing slaves into the Americas long after every other country had stopped the slave trade.

Ex British colonies are mainly civilised and developed or developing.

Ex French colonies are usually the most undeveloped and are riddled with poverty, civil wars etc.

But hey, don't let history get in the way of an anti-British rant!"



His other posts were something about Ireland not being Protestant after the British were forced out and other daily mail nonsense.

An Claidheamh

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

This post really captures some of the childish motivations that underpin Brexit for a portion of its supporters. It’s about ‘sticking it’ to the established order of things. Of course it’s a terribly hypocritical mindset: England should be able to tell the EU to ‘do one’ but heaven forbid the EU defend its position. The politics of juvenile anger.

Britain is like a drunk at a pub picking fights, then complaining when someone stands up to them.

Hearing Brits moan about Ireland "not being run by the Irish government" - is simply a symptom of their loss in the W of I.

They can't accept they don't own roi, now they can't accept they don't own ni.

pH

murphaph wrote: »

The matter NIs balance of payments is secondary. They do "export" twice as much to GB than the EU but the Irish government is not insisting on an invisible border to protect NI business. The GFA takes precedence here. The UK signed it with us in good faith and they don't get to walk away from it.

I'm by no means an expert on the GFA, I remember the referendums, that the NI assembly was created, some cross-border bodies like Waterways Ireland, a promise of a democratic referendum for NI to leave the UK and become part of the republic and a commitment from the UK to 'normalise' the security situation (which involved withdrawing the British army, restructuring the RUC etc). I'm not sure of the exact text people are claiming commits the UK to an open (trade) border, but I would be grateful if someone would link me the text.

If such a clause exists then the why is one needed in the withdrawal treaty? if such a clause doesn't really exist then on what basis is the GFA being invoked here?

A hard border might be better for NI economically (not at all certain IMO but whatever) but it certainly wouldn't do anything but damage border counties in the republic and our government has a right to insist on the terms and spirit of the GFA being adhered to.

Brexit damages NI economically no matter which option. It's not our job to minimise that damage. Our job is to minimise the damage to the republic first and foremost.

I agree, Ireland has to act in its best interests, but I'm not sure that pretty much ensuring that the UK crashes out in 5 months time really is in this country's best interests. But it will be interesting for sure!

Zubeneschamali

pH wrote: »

Irish haulage firms are looking for (and finding) ways to avoid the UK, I'm sure NI firms will figure out something similar.

Yes, and this all adds to the cost of trade, and therefore drives down growth.


If only we could all be in some sort of, I dunno, Single Market.

RobMc59

It's difficult having a discussion with people who won't admit it but obviously have intense dislike of Britain,brexit will hurt Britain and Ireland-both will get over it with Ireland getting closer to the EU and Britain going it alone but which is the best path is anyone's guess-I do think though that the countries being held up as examples of deals the UK could have (Canada,Norway etc)don't seem any better than what's available already.

Leroy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

It's difficult having a discussion with people who won't admit it but obviously have intense dislike of Britain,brexit will hurt Britain and Ireland-both will get over it with Ireland getting closer to the EU and Britain going it alone but which is the best path is anyone's guess-I do think though that the countries being held up as examples of deals the UK could have (Canada,Norway etc)don't seem any better than what's available already.

Who has an intense dislike of Britain?

There didn't seem to be much of it evident prior to Brexit, so wouldn't it be safe to assume that rather than some deep conspiracy people are simply annoyed at the path the UK are going, the way they are going about things, and the total disregard they have for the peace and prosperity of millions of others.

A recent survey found that 80% of Tory members would choose Brexit over peace in NI. Why shouldn't people be unhappy people with such a disregard for others as that?

But again, this narrative that people hate the British or the EU is trying to punish them is simply another example of the UK feeling that everything is about them and somehow they are the center of everything. Both the EU and Ireland are simply looking to make the best of a bad situation.

An Claidheamh

RobMc59 wrote: »

It's difficult having a discussion with people who won't admit it but obviously have intense dislike of Britain,brexit will hurt Britain and Ireland-both will get over it with Ireland getting closer to the EU and Britain going it alone but which is the best path is anyone's guess-I do think though that the countries being held up as examples of deals the UK could have (Canada,Norway etc)don't seem any better than what's available already.

Give me a break.

Britain's media are the most xenophobic and nationalist in the world - in fact I think we're entering poppy fascism season soon - a week does not go by where one of their outlets does not have a bizarre anti-Irish rant.

Yet when we calmly display some facts to them - things they should really already know - they play victim.

It's rather pathetic.

As I said before, decades of unchecked nonsense in the British media is dissolving their international reputation.

An Claidheamh

Leroy42 wrote: »

UK feeling that everything is about them and somehow they are the center of everything.

Nail. Head.

LeinsterDub

pH wrote: »

If such a clause exists then the why is one needed in the withdrawal treaty? if such a clause doesn't really exist then on what basis is the GFA being invoked here?

I can only assume you know the answer to this hence why you keep raising it. It was implied in the GFA but not explicitly stated. Which is why we such a clause now because a hard border fundamentally changes the situation

brickster69

I'm not sure of the exact text people are claiming commits the UK to an open (trade) border, but I would be grateful if someone would link me the text.

Here you go 
http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/today/good_friday/full_text.html

Also interested to see where having border controls for goods breaks this agreement. Because it is not there !

First Up

RobMc59 wrote:

It's difficult having a discussion with people who won't admit it but obviously have intense dislike of Britain,brexit will hurt Britain and Ireland-both will get over it with Ireland getting closer to the EU and Britain going it alone but which is the best path is anyone's guess-I do think though that the countries being held up as examples of deals the UK could have (Canada,Norway etc)don't seem any better than what's available already.

An intense dislike of the idiocy of Brexit does not translate into a dislike of the country or its people.

I do however admit to exasperation and frustration at the mis-information, lack of understanding and xenophobia that permeates the Brexit attitude and argument.

An Ciarraioch

Report today in the Sunday Independent highlighting how exporters are responding to Brexit - 57% of firms have taken action to reduce their exposure to the UK, 66% are exporting to the Eurozone, but 84% are retaining business in the UK, so a good mix of markets:

https://www.enterprise-ireland.com/en/Publications/Reports-Published-Strategies/Export-Market-Watch/

Anthracite

A Brexiteer speaks his mind:

https://mobile.twitter.com/skynews/status/1053662098574716929

Kermit.de.frog

I agree that what we are really dealing with here is 40 years of the worst right wing tabloid culture in the world particularly in England.


This has shaped people's mindset naturally. It's been relentless.