Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

pH

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The £500 a week isn't GDP, it's lost tax revenue , so cold hard cash that's gone as UK growth has lagged by 2.5% since the referendum.

BTW the £20Bn promised to the NHS will only pay for debt servicing.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/brexit-uk-economy-one-year-gdp-inflation-investment-growth-a8270861.html

Where are you getting your figures from?

The figures in that Independent article show that nothing has so far been 'lost' from the UK economy, if the LSE analysis is correct, the economy has 'failed to grow' by £20bn (1.4% growth compared to 2.0% projected without brexit) since the vote.

I presumed this was the where the 500m a week figure had come from, which is not a contraction of the economy but a projected lack of growth in GDP, not tax receipts.

Given that 93% of the UK's GDP remains (is consumed) in the UK, none of this is that surprising. Anyway the UK's internal financial well-being is really none of the concern of Irish citizens, they are free to go their own way and be free of the EU if they choose. Ireland will have to forge stronger economic ties with the rest of Europe and be less reliant on the UK market that's all.

What is shocking is that the British government has already stated that in the event of a 'no deal', EU citizens in the UK are welcome to stay, whereas the EU (or indeed Ireland) has made no such commitment yet.

An Claidheamh

pH wrote: »

Anyway the UK's internal financial well-being is really none of the concern of Irish citizens

What is shocking is that the British government has already stated that in the event of a 'no deal', EU citizens in the UK are welcome to stay, whereas the EU (or indeed Ireland) has made no such commitment yet.

Ireland’s membership of the EU is of no concern to British subjects, yet they try telling them that.

Why would the EU give assurances to British subjects?

We don't rely on them like the UK relies on the EU, and the EU didn't ask the UK to leave.

If a shop makes great cakes, and some other shop makes crap cakes,
if the crap shop decides to buy and sell the great cakes.

Does that mean the great cake shop must buy the sell the crap ones?

*cake is a metaphor

jm08

pH wrote: »

What is shocking is that the British government has already stated that in the event of a 'no deal', EU citizens in the UK are welcome to stay, whereas the EU (or indeed Ireland) has made no such commitment yet.

Its up to the UK (as a third country) to negotiate with each individual country what arrangements they make to stay in an EU country in a similar way that the UK has separate agreements with Australians for example that Germany does not have.

As far as I recall, it was agreed that the arrangements that Ireland and the UK have had will not change since they have been there since the foundation of the Irish State.

Capt'n Midnight

pH wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/brexit-uk-economy-one-year-gdp-inflation-investment-growth-a8270861.html

Where are you getting your figures from?

The figures in that Independent article show that nothing has so far been 'lost' from the UK economy, if the LSE analysis is correct, the economy has 'failed to grow' by £20bn (1.4% growth compared to 2.0% projected without brexit) since the vote.

I presumed this was the where the 500m a week figure had come from, which is not a contraction of the economy but a projected lack of growth in GDP, not tax receipts.

It's tax receipts.

The loss is more than NI grant and nett EU contributions combined.

And this isn't a worst case scenario.

This is what has already happened, and is continuing to happen while the UK continues to be a member of the EU and there is still hope of a good deal.

https://www.cer.eu/insights/cost-brexit-june-2018

The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if the UK had voted to remain in the European Union. The latest update of the Centre for European Reform’s calculation of the cost of Brexit in the second quarter of 2018 shows the damage is growing even though the UK has yet to leave the bloc. The knock-on hit to the public finances is now £26 billion per annum – or £500 million a week.

...
One way to sanity-check our estimate is to compare the UK’s growth to that of other comparable countries since the referendum. The UK has grown by 3.1 per cent over that period. Compare that to the average of the 22 most advanced economies: 5.2 per cent – which amounts to a 2.1 per cent gap, not far from our estimate of the cost of Brexit.

Spook_ie

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Ireland’s membership of the EU is of no concern to British subjects, yet they try telling them that.

Why would the EU give assurances to British subjects?

We don't rely on them like the UK relies on the EU, and the EU didn't ask the UK to leave.

If a shop makes great cakes, and some other shop makes crap cakes,
if the crap shop decides to buy and sell the great cakes.

Does that mean the great cake shop must buy the sell the crap ones?

*cake is a metaphor

Wasn't it part of the proceedings that the EU were concerned about EU citizens rights as part of the divorce settlement? If so you'd think a little reciprocation would help oil the wheels

Peregrinus

pH wrote: »

What is shocking is that the British government has already stated that in the event of a 'no deal', EU citizens in the UK are welcome to stay, whereas the EU (or indeed Ireland) has made no such commitment yet.

The EU has offered such a commitment - indeed, a more generous commitment - but the UK seems reluctant to accept it. Possibly because they are willing to make only a more limited commitment themselves.

Calina

pH wrote: »

What is shocking is that the British government has already stated that in the event of a 'no deal', EU citizens in the UK are welcome to stay, whereas the EU (or indeed Ireland) has made no such commitment yet.

EU citizens are already having issues with getting indefinite leave to remain in the UK because of the UK's decision to handle health insurance requirements in a way which makes it difficult for UK based EU citizens to obtain permanenr leave to remain, and the UK's treatment of the Windrush generation whom they had deemed to be citizens has been less than stellar. Plus, we are having serious issues getting an agreement precisely because the UK cannot be trusted on their word right now. If I were an EU citizen in the UK I doubt I would take any comfort.

Immigration and tourist visa requirements are a national competency with respect to third countries. This means as things stand, the EU is limited in terms of the universal statements it can make unless the UK is signing up to freedom of movement as part of the single movement. The individual countries have been facilitating citizenship applications and permanent residency applications from locally settled Britons hand over fist.

I am not sure if it is still the case but representative orgs for British people living elsewhere in Europe have found it almost impossible to get meetings with the Brexit minister but Michel Barnier has sat down with them and I believe Guy Verhofstadt also. By contrast, thd UK who was supposed to be advocating for them elected initially to use EU migrants as a bargaining chip and now will be forcing EU citizens through a process which has already deemed itself to be difficult and inadequately supported.

20silkcut

Friend of mine imports parts to make his product from the UK.
He got a reduction in price from his UK suppliers because of brexit. Sent them an email a few weeks ago saying he was going to source parts from EU based suppliers going forward. They cut the price straight away. He is a very small company.
How many times is that replicated??

How unquantifiable a cost to is that to the British economy??
Anyone importing from UK suppliers has them over a barrel at the moment.

Beechwoodspark

Matthew Parris was on P Kenny show just now.

Says there’s a 30-40 percent chance May could be ousted this week

Leroy42

How could they possibly replace her? The people voted in a GE with TM as the leader of the Tories. Surely installing anybody else would be akin to installing a leader undemocratically and they would have to have another GE?

Or is democracy only a thing when it is something you want? The people voted and the people must be listened to. TM was elected by both the members of her party and the members of the public, to replace her would go against the will of the people!

Also, surely any move against TM would signal the end of any chance of a deal and trigger no deal reaction.

Do the Tories not see that this continual infighting is actually weakening TM negotiation position. WHy would the EU be inclined to make any deal with TM when it is clear than even her own party have no confidence in her and don't back what she is doing?

ambro25

20silkcut wrote: »

(...)
How unquantifiable a cost to is that to the British economy??

I think that anecdotal instance with your friend, and all the others not talked about, amount to the UK’s missing 2.5% GDP growth (£500m per week) estimated by the Centre for European Reform in a recent study.

Water John

Unless they have managed a clear path to Davis as an interrim PM with no challenger, the ERG will huff and puff but not trigger the 48. A few put in their letters and others take theirs out ATM. If they fail in their bid, she cannot be challenged for 12 months. But then chaos may suit the ERG, and weakening her might be enough for them.

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

How could they possibly replace her? The people voted in a GE with TM as the leader of the Tories. Surely installing anybody else would be akin to installing a leader undemocratically and they would have to have another GE?

You don't vote for the PM though, that's up to the party. Same as here in Ireland, we don't have a general election when the Taoiseach changes during a government term.


Edit; Ahhhh, I see what you did there

Zubeneschamali

Water John wrote: »

But then chaos may suit the ERG, and weakening her might be enough for them.

If they try a heave and fail, they are the ones who are weakened - no more heaves until after brexit day, when it will be too late.

seamus

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Matthew Parris was on P Kenny show just now.

Says there’s a 30-40 percent chance May could be ousted this week

Been that way every week since the general election IMO.

If that shambles didn't cause May to lose the armband, nothing will. Nobody wants the role, so they're not pushing for it. But the potential successors are ensuring TM is well and truly destroyed by the time she steps down.

Enzokk

Jacob Rees Mogg has had his say and naturally they will be better off after Brexit. Unfortunately for the masses I think "they" is not referring to them.

Treasury so keen on wailing-it's missed TRUE excitement of Brexit, says JACOB REES-MOGG


It seems all so reasonable really, the way he writes it. I also couldn't stop reading it in his voice which was very distracting in my own head.

The other headline that caught my attention was this from the Express:

Brexit SHOCK: Merkel and Macron CAVE IN and demand EU make CONCESSIONS to Britain

I do like the headline. It made me sit up and want to see what concessions apparently has been made, until you read the story.

EU diplomats have revealed Paris has shifted its position on Brexit and now wants to push through a deal as soon as possible.

Mr Macron’s government will call on the EU to resume negotiations immediately in order to reduce the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

Mrs Merkel reinforced the need for a new effort and “flexibility” in order to strike a deal during the meeting private meeting.

So there we have it, we will be sold up the river to have a deal done for Germany and France. Until you read the next few paragraphs that is,

Despite the private approach, Mr Macron doubled down on warnings to Mrs May that it is her role to break the impasse and not the EU.

He told reporters in Brussels the Prime Minister must deliver a “political compromise” as the EU has offered as much it can in negotiations.

“It’s no longer a technical issue, it’s for the political ability of the UK to reach an agreement that can be presented to us,” the French President said.

“It’s not for the EU to make concessions to deal with UK political issues. I can not be more clear on this."

Seems to me that there is some liberties being taken, again, with what people are saying. In stating that they want a deal and are looking for compromises doesn't mean that the UK is winning and will get what they want, it means the EU will not give up on a deal as that is the worst outcome. They are still trying to find a way to get a deal but it really isn't up to the EU right now, it is up to what May can pass in her own government.

But that is my reading of it, I am sure other views are available.

trellheim

Loiseau was clear enough on Marr yesterday - UK needs to sort itself out.

lawred2

trellheim wrote: »

Loiseau was clear enough on Marr yesterday - UK needs to sort itself out.

How did Tony Connelly fare? I couldn't watch as I was taking the young lad out to rugby.

Zubeneschamali

Coveney reported in the IT: “There will be no withdrawal agreement without the backstop, end of story”

BonnieSituation

lawred2 wrote: »

How did Tony Connelly fare? I couldn't watch as I was taking the young lad out to rugby.

He was his usual factual and to the point self.

When you saw what Marr was like with Starmer and Raab afterwards it just shows his calibre really.

Shame he didn't have anyone of real substance in the couch with him tbh. That would have been enjoyable.

Lemming

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Britain's media are the most xenophobic and nationalist in the world

Still on page 83, just going to respond to this now. In fairness, as much as I have pilloried the state of the British media in past iterations of this thread, it's not quite as bad as Russian state media, and perhaps on occasion, certain US & Australian media outlets. Certainly the worst in western Europe though. By a country mile.

Hurrache

I had a laugh at this, a burn by Varadkar by someone replying to his tweet. Although why he bothered I don't know.
https://twitter.com/campaignforleo/status/1053239918296752128
https://twitter.com/campaignforleo/status/1053685436458115073

Cato the Elder

Hurrache wrote: »

I had a laugh at this, a burn by Varadkar by someone replying to his tweet. Although why he bothered I don't know.
https://twitter.com/campaignforleo/status/1053239918296752128
https://twitter.com/campaignforleo/status/1053685436458115073

Of course people try to equate that with the vitriol coming out of the UK since 2016. Clowns the lot of them and any Brit who takes offense has a shattered national ego.


Furthermore, I consider that Carthage must be destroyed.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

I had a laugh at this, a burn by Varadkar by someone replying to his tweet. Although why he bothered I don't know.
https://twitter.com/campaignforleo/status/1053239918296752128
https://twitter.com/campaignforleo/status/1053685436458115073

Harry Charlton sounds like a smart guy... typical know nothing buffoon.

More evidence that these social platforms giving everyone a voice is not always (ever) a good thing

ancapailldorcha

Less of the name calling please.

Hurrache

lawred2 wrote: »

Harry Charlton sounds like a smart guy... typical know nothing buffoon.

More evidence that these social platforms giving everyone a voice is not always (ever) a good thing

I actually had someone, not long after the bail out, come up to me at a bar in the UK and ask me was I enjoying spending his money. I politely replied, Yes, thank you very much. He didn't have much to say after that.

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

Still on page 83, just going to respond to this now. In fairness, as much as I have pilloried the state of the British media in past iterations of this thread, it's not quite as bad as Russian state media, and perhaps on occasion, certain US & Australian media outlets. Certainly the worst in western Europe though. By a country mile.

When the best thing you can say about the national media of a Western country is that it's still not as bad as the state media of Russia, that's quite telling.

seamus

Enzokk wrote: »

I am sure other views are available.

Not in the express, there aren't.

The purpose of this misdirection is to maintain the anti-EU narrative. "The EU is on the back foot, Brexit is winning!". And when the UK comes out with a bad deal or no deal, the British conservative media can claim it was because the EU deceived the UK.

The British have always regarded the EU as a vehicle being driven entirely by the German and French elite, entirely for their benefit and no-one else's. While it has become very apparent to the rest of the EU how far this is from the reality, anti-German and anti-French sentiment has been a constant and useful propaganda tool for generations of British governments, so it's not something that's going to unravel over the course of a Brexit.

While the British and French have been at eachother like cats and dogs for centuries, the German relationship is a more interesting one. Germany (or at least large parts of it) and the UK would probably have ended up forming a union of sorts, had the Kaiser not decided to take Germany on a world conquest attempt. After that, the British propaganda machine ensured that everyone would know Germans were evil geniuses and not to be trusted.

VinLieger

seamus wrote: »

After that, the British propaganda machine ensured that everyone would know Germans were evil geniuses and not to be trusted.

Yeah their "too efficient", bloody gerry and his damn work ethic

Peregrinus

seamus wrote: »

Not in the express, there aren't.

The purpose of this misdirection is to maintain the anti-EU narrative. "The EU is on the back foot, Brexit is winning!". . . .

Or alternatively the purpose of this narrative is to smooth the way for HMG to shift their position to the extent needed to secure a Withdrawal Agreement, and to spin that shift as a UK victory.

Which, you know, I can live with. They can have the spin if we get the substance.