Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

demfad

cml387 wrote: »

The deal if it as Tony Connolly spells out does seem to be a good basis for proceeding.
It's interesting to see how the EU have actually compromised, in that earlier in the year they were ruling out the "UK-wide backstop".

It's not a UK wide backstop though. The backstop is for NI only. The UK wide customs Union is just to allow the backstop to be not used.

Hurrache

cml387 wrote: »

The deal if it as Tony Connolly spells out does seem to be a good basis for proceeding.
It's interesting to see how the EU have actually compromised, in that earlier in the year they were ruling out the "UK-wide backstop".

The thing is though it's not a backstop, it's a future customs arrangement, which will in theory prevent the need of a backstop ever being implemented.

The problem will be getting it past the UK parliament, where the mantra is out means out.

An Ciarraioch

Hurrache wrote: »

cml387 wrote: »

The deal if it as Tony Connolly spells out does seem to be a good basis for proceeding.
It's interesting to see how the EU have actually compromised, in that earlier in the year they were ruling out the "UK-wide backstop".

The thing is though it's not a backstop, it's a future customs arrangement, which will in theory prevent the need of a backstop ever being implemented.

The problem will be getting it past the UK parliament, where the mantra is out means out.

And of course, it doesn't cover the Single Market, as the NI backstop will.

Mc Love

They still stay in the CU but only after the withdrawal agreement is agreed, and there will be a backstop in place in the meantime, seems fair.

Call me Al

Mc Love wrote: »

They still stay in the CU but only after the withdrawal agreement is agreed, and there will be a backstop in place in the meantime, seems fair.

But they won't be able to sign trade deals with other 3rd parties.
So it's a red line.

Zubeneschamali

Call me Al wrote: »

But they won't be able to sign trade deals with other 3rd parties.
So it's a red line.

But it's temporary, so no big deal.

Hurrache

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But it's temporary, so no big deal.

I don't think it is, it's a future customs agreement between the EU and the UK, hence no backstop being ever invoked?

ancapailldorcha

Don't dump pics here please.

badtoro

Is staying in CU just a tactic to get rid of the backstop agreement? Will the UK then be able to use the CU temporarily and ditch it when it suits them in the future, where would the border sutuation be left then?

Call me Al

badtoro wrote: »

Is staying in CU just a tactic to get rid of the backstop agreement? Will the UK then be able to use the CU temporarily and ditch it when it suits them in the future, where would the border sutuation be left then?

Well I think that's why the EU are saying (a) WA with backstop now, and (b) this UK wide agreement afterwards.
The UK haven't exactly covered themselves and their approach to negotiations in honourable glory to date.

Hurrache

badtoro wrote: »

Is staying in CU just a tactic to get rid of the backstop agreement? Will the UK then be able to use the CU temporarily and ditch it when it suits them in the future, where would the border sutuation be left then?

Probably back to where we are now. If they do go for it there'll probably be some fall back written into the agreement. And that in itself could even be a hurdle in coming to a customs agreement.

Zubeneschamali

badtoro wrote: »

Is staying in CU just a tactic to get rid of the backstop agreement? Will the UK then be able to use the CU temporarily and ditch it when it suits them in the future, where would the border sutuation be left then?

No - the idea is that the WA will have a real backstop to guarantee no border, and a statement that the whole UK can negotiate to stay in a CU to avoid the real backstop ever being needed.

The UK will say that future CU will only be needed until their tech. based unicorn regime replaces it while also avoiding the NI backstop. This will never happen in reality, and if they ever negotiate a trade agreement outside the EU, they will have to bite the bullet and shaft Northern Ireland with an Irish Sea border, but that will be donkey's years from now and no-one in Westminster today cares (except the DUP).

swampgas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No - the idea is that the WA will have a real backstop to guarantee no border, and a statement that the whole UK can negotiate to stay in a CU to avoid the real backstop ever being needed.

The UK will say that future CU will only be needed until their tech. based unicorn regime replaces it while also avoiding the NI backstop. This will never happen in reality, and if they ever negotiate a trade agreement outside the EU, they will have to bite the bullet and shaft Northern Ireland with an Irish Sea border, but that will be donkey's years from now and no-one in Westminster today cares (except the DUP).

Agreed - which is why I think there are elements of the DUP who are trying to provoke a no deal Brexit, hoping the GFA will be destroyed in the process.

Sam Russell

My brother was just back from a visit to Norway where they are having a huge national debate.

Their health system is creaking from not enough funding, staff, that kind of thing. There is a Gov proposal the increase the spending of the National Sovereign Fund (their snowy day fund) from 2% to 6%. The fund owns Stat oil and other major investments around Europe and the World. It is huge. The cry from the naysayers is 'What about our grandchildren and great-grandchildren?'

Last year, the Sovereign fund grew by fourteen percent.

First world problem

seamus

Shelga wrote: »

I used to work for Dyson, I’m pretty sure part of it is also that James Dyson does not give a **** about his workers’ rights and would like to be free of EU obligations in that regard.

This is exactly what I was going to say.

Whenever a company complains about being strangled by EU regulations, they ALWAYS mean that they can't treat their employees as badly as they would like and the anti-corruption requirements for their top-level management are too much paperwork.

kuro68k

Dyson have announced that their new cars will be built in Singapore. Brexit bonus?

Leroy42

seamus wrote: »

This is exactly what I was going to say.

Whenever a company complains about being strangled by EU regulations, they ALWAYS mean that they can't treat their employees as badly as they would like and the anti-corruption requirements for their top-level management are too much paperwork.

This is relevant I think

https://twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/1054678905230147584

jm08

Sam Russell wrote: »

My brother was just back from a visit to Norway where they are having a huge national debate.

Their health system is creaking from not enough funding, staff, that kind of thing. There is a Gov proposal the increase the spending of the National Sovereign Fund (their snowy day fund) from 2% to 6%. The fund owns Stat oil and other major investments around Europe and the World. It is huge. The cry from the naysayers is 'What about our grandchildren and great-grandchildren?'

Last year, the Sovereign fund grew by fourteen percent.

First world problem

Oil is going to run out though. There is already a huge conflict with sesmic off shore oil exploration frightening the fish away which the fishermen and environmentalists are none too pleased about.

Sam Russell

jm08 wrote: »

Oil is going to run out though. There is already a huge conflict with sesmic off shore oil exploration frightening the fish away which the fishermen are none too pleased about.

Not all investments of the Norway Sovereign Fund are oil based, and the fund is well diversified.

It is growing faster than they are spending it. We owe €40,000 per man woman and child.

lawred2

Sam Russell wrote: »

My brother was just back from a visit to Norway where they are having a huge national debate.

Their health system is creaking from not enough funding, staff, that kind of thing. There is a Gov proposal the increase the spending of the National Sovereign Fund (their snowy day fund) from 2% to 6%. The fund owns Stat oil and other major investments around Europe and the World. It is huge. The cry from the naysayers is 'What about our grandchildren and great-grandchildren?'

Last year, the Sovereign fund grew by fourteen percent.

First world problem

Just imagine living in a country with the sense and vision to manage their resources like Norway did.

We'd have had some shyster from Mayo, Donegal or the midlands hand rights over to corporations hand over fist for a few jobs/votes.

BonnieSituation

lawred2 wrote: »

Just imagine living in a country with the sense and vision to manage their resources like Norway did.

We'd have had some shyster from Mayo, Donegal or the midlands hand rights over to corporations hand over fist for a few jobs/votes.

It helps that the Nordics aren't a pile of begrudging nimbys.

megatron989

lawred2 wrote: »

Just imagine living in a country with the sense and vision to manage their resources like Norway did.

We'd have had some shyster from Mayo, Donegal or the midlands hand rights over to corporations hand over fist for a few jobs/votes.

Couldn't be more bang on. Time and time again these boys get in who sell us out for the first bag of coins they see. Something we have in common with the UK at the moment.

oscarBravo

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It helps that the Nordics aren't a pile of begrudging nimbys.

Yup. Compare Apple's success in Viborg to the embarrassing clusterfudge that was Athenry. Best little country to do business in...?

Sam Russell

megatron989 wrote: »

Couldn't be more bang on. Time and time again these boys get in who sell us out for the first bag of coins they see. Something we have in common with the UK at the moment.

Not even a bag of coins, but a bag of magic beans. What did we get for the Corrib gas field?

flatty

Hurrache wrote: »

cml387 wrote: »

The deal if it as Tony Connolly spells out does seem to be a good basis for proceeding.
It's interesting to see how the EU have actually compromised, in that earlier in the year they were ruling out the "UK-wide backstop".

The thing is though it's not a backstop, it's a future customs arrangement, which will in theory prevent the need of a backstop ever being implemented.

The problem will be getting it past the UK parliament, where the mantra is out means out.

Actually, in Parliament, it isnt. The majority of mps are remain or at worst soft brexiteers. The vicious use of the whip by may et al combined with cowardice and party loyalty has just about held her in number ten in a clear demonstration of a la carte democracy.
The ball may be in labour's court now. Problem for corbyn as I see it, is that his chancellor is too left wing for "a nation of shopkeepers." People are worried about the momentum mob, and the unhealthy power they seem to wield within the Labour movement, and the means and methods by which they wield it. If brexit is soft enough that people shrug and get on with only slightly worse lives, I can't see corbyn getting into number ten. His best chance of that remains a hard brexit. He may be slowly being squeezed into a position whereby he may actually be burdened with some of the blame for such an event should Labour not back a softish deal. It'll be interesting to see how he reacts. The erg may look to overthrow may, but without a credible replacement, I can't see that they have the numbers. It's hard to know where this will go.

Enzokk

Call me Al wrote: »

But they won't be able to sign trade deals with other 3rd parties.
So it's a red line.

Well, you can be in a customs union and make your own trade deals, but the extent of what you can offer in trade deal will depend on the customs union you have with the EU.

Basically it seems to me that the EU will, if they need to, fudge the living daylights out of an agreement if that is what is needed. Legally they will try to ensure that the UK cannot lower their standards and have open borders with the EU but they would somehow have the UK "sign" trade agreements with other countries. This would actually just be the same terms as the EU agreements but the UK politicians and "negotiators" in that case will get a tap on the head for doing a good job and getting the UK a trade deal.

You know because trade deal take a long time to negotiate and if the EU is in their first with their people it will "delay" the UK only talks. Once the EU talks have concluded magically the UK swoops in and gets their trade deal with the same nation/trading block. The UK wins because they have won back the ability to make their own trade deals (nudge, nudge), and the EU wins because a trade deal with 28 nations has more negotiating leverage than 27. Winner Winner Chicken Dinner.:rolleyes::cool:

lawred2

Sam Russell wrote: »

Not even a bag of coins, but a bag of magic beans. What did we get for the Corrib gas field?

Police bills

Kermit.de.frog

Varadkar taking a lot of flack for his ill-advised tweet which hinted Ireland might have to "help" the UK soon.


He needs to stay away from that nonsense of responding to trolls - especially Brexiters.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1035274/Brexit-news-Leo-Varadkar-twitter-ireland-uk-border-latest

flutered

kuro68k wrote: »

Dyson have announced that their new cars will be built in Singapore. Brexit bonus?

especially as the eu and singapore have singed an agreement yesterday to begin talks on a trade deal

flutered

kuro68k wrote: »

Dyson have announced that their new cars will be built in Singapore. Brexit bonus?

especially as the eu and singapore have singed an agreement yesterday to begin talks on a trade deal

Sam Russell wrote: »

megatron989 wrote: »

Couldn't be more bang on. Time and time again these boys get in who sell us out for the first bag of coins they see. Something we have in common with the UK at the moment.

Not even a bag of coins, but a bag of magic beans.  What did we get for the Corrib gas field?

look at all the whiskey that was imported from ni