Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We all know that they can't do it, we always knew. The EU team were never going to fall for that bluff.

Unfortunately, a lot of people in the UK have fallen for it, and it will be very hard to convince them that it was all nonsense and Project Fear is all true.

They don't even understand the basics. The response to the talk of ships being commandeered and medicines being stockpiled is either "the dastardly French are trying to punish us" or "the EU companies won't stop supplying us, it's all project fear".


They've been fed Google street views of empty border crossings in Switzerland (at non goods entry points obvs.) and talk of magical technological customs clearnce systems, so reject all talk of customs checks.

flatty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Igotadose wrote: »

In other news, the National Audit Office has basically said that the lemmings are over the cliff, that is, it's too late to prepare for a 'hard Brexit' in March 2019

We all know that they can't do it, we always knew. The EU team were never going to fall for that bluff.

Unfortunately, a lot of people in the UK have fallen for it, and it will be very hard to convince them that it was all nonsense and Project Fear is all true.

This is absolutely correct. It needs the bbc to start reporting in a fact based manner, which it shows no sign of. I'm living in the UK with my family, but actually think a flat, hard, no deal brexit would be best for the UK in the medium and long term. The swamp needs to be drained, and this is the only way to do it.

lawred2

flatty wrote: »

This is absolutely correct. It needs the bbc to start reporting in a fact based manner, which it shows no sign of. I'm living in the UK with my family, but actually think a flat, hard, no deal brexit would be best for the UK in the medium and long term. The swamp needs to be drained, and this is the only way to do it.

I'd prefer a way of draining the rule britannia swamp that didn't result in Ireland suffering collateral damage..

prawnsambo

flatty wrote: »

This is absolutely correct. It needs the bbc to start reporting in a fact based manner, which it shows no sign of. I'm living in the UK with my family, but actually think a flat, hard, no deal brexit would be best for the UK in the medium and long term. The swamp needs to be drained, and this is the only way to do it.

It's not going to be drained though. Those who sold the unicorns will continue to prosper because this suits them down to the ground. They have the money and the influence to be able to profit from the chaos. They can burn all those pesky EU regulations and legislation that prevented them from exploiting those less well off and are mobile enough to be able to watch it all in comfort from wherever they want. They spoke the truth when they said "there is no downside, only a considerable upside". They spoke solely for themselves though.

lawred2

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's not going to be drained though. Those who sold the unicorns will continue to prosper because this suits them down to the ground. They have the money and the influence to be able to profit from the chaos. They can burn all those pesky EU regulations and legislation that prevented them from exploiting those less well off and are mobile enough to be able to watch it all in comfort from wherever they want. They spoke the truth when they said "there is no downside, only a considerable upside". They spoke solely for themselves though.

When you think of how many of the poorest regions in Western Europe are in the UK and yet this is with those pesky regulations...

Scorched earth is what comes to mind with the shackles off

Winters

flatty wrote: »

This is absolutely correct. It needs the bbc to start reporting in a fact based manner, which it shows no sign of. I'm living in the UK with my family, but actually think a flat, hard, no deal brexit would be best for the UK in the medium and long term. The swamp needs to be drained, and this is the only way to do it.

I would like to think that a hard no deal Brexit would actually show Britain exactly what the EU does for them. The ability live peacefully, to trade, to trade without tariffs and limits and to trade without friction.

They still dont understand what their "£500,000,000 per week" gives them in return.

Leroy42

Winters wrote: »

I would like to think that a hard no deal Brexit would actually show Britain exactly what the EU does for them. The ability live peacefully, to trade, to trade without tariffs and limits and to trade without friction.

They still dont understand what their £500m per week gives them in return.

Unfortunately, I think a hard Brexit will do the exact opposite.

We can already see that any attempt by the EU to follow the rules (visas, border checks etc) is met with cries of punishment and evil from the Brexiteers.

So it is likely, nay almost guaranteed, that any and all negatives as a result of Brexit will be blamed solely on the unfairness of the EU, the bullying by Ireland, the crassness of the Germans and the attempt by the French to take revenge for Waterloo.

This will, IMO, only lead to a further shift towards nationalism and inflame nationalistic tendencies. So after a few years when things haven't magically got better in the UK, a new target to blame will rise. Possibly NI for being the reason for the No Deal, possibly NI for the continued and probably increase in subvention. Probably the CTA, why are the Irish still allowed to take our jobs!

I think the UK is in for a very rough couple of decades.

RobMc59

Winters wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

This is absolutely correct. It needs the bbc to start reporting in a fact based manner, which it shows no sign of. I'm living in the UK with my family, but actually think a flat, hard, no deal brexit would be best for the UK in the medium and long term. The swamp needs to be drained, and this is the only way to do it.

I would like to think that a hard no deal Brexit would actually show Britain exactly what the EU does for them. The ability live peacefully, to trade, to trade without tariffs and limits and to trade without friction.

They still dont understand what their "£500,000,000 per week" gives them in return.

I don't agree with brexit but because Britain has voted to leave shouldn't mean it needs to be taught a lesson-also the UK is a big contributor-as we have seen Germany are probably going to have to up their contribution by a considerable amount .

seamus

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't agree with brexit but because Britain has voted to leave shouldn't mean it needs to be taught a lesson-also the UK is a big contributor-as we have seen Germany are probably going to have to up their contribution by a considerable amount .

Learning a lesson doesn't necessarily mean that someone else is teaching it. If you jump off a bridge you will learn a valuable lesson. It's not the county council's fault that they didn't remove the rocks before you hit the ground.

The EU doesn't need to punish the UK, but it also is under no obligation to soften the blow for them either.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't agree with brexit but because Britain has voted to leave shouldn't mean it needs to be taught a lesson-also the UK is a big contributor-as we have seen Germany are probably going to have to up their contribution by a considerable amount .

I don't think that anyone is genuinely looking for actual suffering.

The fact is that the UK benefited hugely from being in the EU, perhaps disproportionately so. They've decided to leave which means losing these benefits. There is no reason that they should be allowed to keep them as that would be unfair on the remaining EU members unless they accept compromises which are unfortunately anathema to the Paleosceptics who keep banging on and on about English exceptionalism safe in the knowledge that they won't be affected themselves.

Leroy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't agree with brexit but because Britain has voted to leave shouldn't mean it needs to be taught a lesson-also the UK is a big contributor-as we have seen Germany are probably going to have to up their contribution by a considerable amount .

Think of it the other way.

Should it be you, or someone in the UK, that suffers from any negative consequences of Brexit?

Because for the UK to avoid consequences, the EU need to give in on something, which will cost someone (you) something.

Do you think it is fair that you will pay the price?

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

Think of it the other way.

Should it be you, or someone in the UK, that suffers from any negative consequences of Brexit?

Because for the UK to avoid consequences, the EU need to give in on something, which will cost someone (you) something.

Do you think it is fair that you will pay the price?

People in Ireland will pay a price either way

swampgas

Leroy42 wrote: »

Unfortunately, I think a hard Brexit will do the exact opposite.

We can already see that any attempt by the EU to follow the rules (visas, border checks etc) is met with cries of punishment and evil from the Brexiteers.

So it is likely, nay almost guaranteed, that any and all negatives as a result of Brexit will be blamed solely on the unfairness of the EU, the bullying by Ireland, the crassness of the Germans and the attempt by the French to take revenge for Waterloo.

This will, IMO, only lead to a further shift towards nationalism and inflame nationalistic tendencies. So after a few years when things haven't magically got better in the UK, a new target to blame will rise. Possibly NI for being the reason for the No Deal, possibly NI for the continued and probably increase in subvention. Probably the CTA, why are the Irish still allowed to take our jobs!

I think the UK is in for a very rough couple of decades.

On the flip side - the referendum was a close run thing, and there are plenty of remainers who marched in London in huge numbers recently. Whether the remainers have the power to challenge the very entrenched and influential Brexiteers in British society is another question. Right now, I'd say no, but perhaps in a year or two the media and political parties will have a greater interest in chasing the pro-EU demographic.

Zubeneschamali

lawred2 wrote: »

People in Ireland will pay a price either way

And the British public will not learn any lessons either way.

There is a story floating around on Twitter that the French have threatened to close Calais if the UK do no pay their divorce bill. I have no idea if it is based on any facts, and for my purposes it doesn't matter if it is true or not, just consider the story itself.

After brexit, the French are (per the story) taking control of their border with the UK in their own national interest - precisely what Brexiteers say they want to do themselves. So this is cool, right?

No! It is bullying, interference in UK domestic politics, an attempt by the EU elite to keep the UK in the EU against their will etc. etc.

No matter what happens after Brexit, it will be the fault of foreigners, the EU, immigrants, Remoaners, Corbyn and Tory traitors. Never, ever caused by Brexit, and never a reason to consider that maybe brexit was a bad idea.

The people who voted leave will double down and destroy the UK before they will admit to themselves that they made a colossal error.

Leroy42

lawred2 wrote: »

People in Ireland will pay a price either way

This is true, so surely we need to do everything we can to minimize this price? The poster, and many Brexiteers, take the view that for some reason the EU should be actively working to limit the damage to the UK even if that means increasing the damage to ourselves

swampgas wrote: »

On the flip side - the referendum was a close run thing, and there are plenty of remainers who marched in London in huge numbers recently. Whether the remainers have the power to challenge the very entrenched and influential Brexiteers in British society is another question. Right now, I'd say no, but perhaps in a year or two the media and political parties will have a greater interest in chasing the pro-EU demographic.

There is always the possibility. However, where is the political lead going to come from? Did Labour even comment on the march? Corbyn seemed more interested in Chile at the weekend. In effect, Remain is a fringe political movement.

And I have yet to see any vehicle which voters can use to show their desire at the ballot box. Neither Tory or Labour, not anyone else, give any voice to the Remain side and as such even a GE will be used, as it is now, to say that 85% of voters voted for Pro Brexit parties.

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't agree with brexit but because Britain has voted to leave shouldn't mean it needs to be taught a lesson-also the UK is a big contributor-as we have seen Germany are probably going to have to up their contribution by a considerable amount .

The actual net contribution that Britain makes is £9 billion a year. I know this won't be divided equally, but if it were, it would amount to roughly £300 million for each of the remaining 27. That wouldn't be insignificant to the likes of Cyprus or even Ireland, but it's not a massive financial blow either. And Britain won't be stopping their contributions until the end of the transition period, so everyone has time to prepare for it.

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is true, so surely we need to do everything we can to minimize this price? The poster, and many Brexiteers, take the view that for some reason the EU should be actively working to limit the damage to the UK even if that means increasing the damage to ourselves

Does maximum damage for the UK not ultimately mean maximum damage for ourselves?

Mc Love

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1055036145501913088?s=20

Nigel Farage just an hour ago called them all stark raving mad :eek:

lawred2

Mc Love wrote: »

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1055036145501913088?s=20

Nigel Farage just an hour ago called them all stark raving mad :eek:

that entire thread is simply depressing

Leroy42

lawred2 wrote: »

Does maximum damage for the UK not ultimately mean maximum damage for ourselves?

In the short term, yes it certainly appears so.

However, the alternative would appear, to me at least, to be worse. Appeasing the UK would invariably damage the EU itself, quite possibly fatally.

Without the EU we are left adrift and at the mercy of the likes of the US and the UK. I fail to see how that is better.

I really dislike all of this, and truly wish Brexit had never happened. But it is the reality that we face and how we deal with it will have serious and long term consequences.

I, like the vast majority in Ireland, believe that the EU has been and continues to be beneficial to Ireland. As such, I fail to see any advantage in putting that hard won system in jeopardy. Which is exactly what Brexit is attempting to do.

We are left with a no win situation. A choice that we never asked for means that we, as a country, need to choose a way, but whichever way we choose it is going to hurt.

Do we therefore go with a way that has proven itself to be beneficial to us in the past and offers us opportunities in the future, or to go back to a closer relationship with the UK which left us in the state that we were back before we joined the EU.

kuro68k

There is a long standing myth in the UK that the EU really really needs them. First it was German car manufacturers who needed the UK market, then it was the fact that by volume the EU exports more to the UK than the UK exports to the EU.

Now it's down to "well if we destroy ourselves at least we can take the EU with us!"

In reality it will be the UK that suffers by far the most, and the EU will help Ireland, and the UK will eventually come crawling back.

EdgeCase

lawred2 wrote: »

that entire thread is simply depressing

Unless something very radical happens politically in the UK, you're really looking at a constant circular argument and then some kind of meltdown in March.

I don't really see any other possible outcomes as they are just incapable of resolving this.

ancapailldorcha

Mc Love wrote: »

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1055036145501913088?s=20

Nigel Farage just an hour ago called them all stark raving mad :eek:

It gets worse for UKIP:

https://twitter.com/juliegirling/status/1054769926106501121

Shame they weren't so enthusiastic about doing their actual jobs.

flatty

lawred2 wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

This is absolutely correct. It needs the bbc to start reporting in a fact based manner, which it shows no sign of. I'm living in the UK with my family, but actually think a flat, hard, no deal brexit would be best for the UK in the medium and long term. The swamp needs to be drained, and this is the only way to do it.

I'd prefer a way of draining the rule britannia swamp that didn't result in Ireland suffering collateral damage..

Ireland will suffer slowly either way. In truth, I think the main damage for Ireland is the loss of a powerful ally in the EU. I say ally as our needs often coincided with theirs. I expect corpo tax wheezes to come under increasing pressure, and we may see whether the multinationals are indeed here for the workforce, or whether it is for tax reasons. It'll take a generation to play out though, may make no difference, and the increasing westernisation of the poorer eu states will also make them more attractive.
As regards short term collateral damage, a hard brexit is far more likely to result in a change of attitude in the UK (combined with the inexorable attrition of the bulk of the brexit generation), and a stable, cooperation going forward. Death by a thousand contracts will merely draw out the pain for everyone.

flatty

Winters wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

This is absolutely correct. It needs the bbc to start reporting in a fact based manner, which it shows no sign of. I'm living in the UK with my family, but actually think a flat, hard, no deal brexit would be best for the UK in the medium and long term. The swamp needs to be drained, and this is the only way to do it.

I would like to think that a hard no deal Brexit would actually show Britain exactly what the EU does for them. The ability live peacefully, to trade, to trade without tariffs and limits and to trade without friction.

They still dont understand what their "£500,000,000 per week" gives them in return.

My point exactly. Its the only thing that will.

Hurrache

Bleak discussions on the agriculture and food sector going on in the UK at the moment on Connelly's thread
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1055045525005889537

And a Brexiter has Godwin'd the negotiations with the EU. Not content with Soviet Russia comparisons, they've moved onto Nazis

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1055021953533272065

https://twitter.com/AlynSmith/status/1055008327531462657

lawred2

A Brexiteer invoking Godwin's law was inevitable at some point

Is anyone remotely surprised?

Folkstonian

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

lawred2 wrote: »

People in Ireland will pay a price either way

And the British public will not learn any lessons either way.

There is a story floating around on Twitter that the French have threatened to close Calais if the UK do no pay their divorce bill. I have no idea if it is based on any facts, and for my purposes it doesn't matter if it is true or not, just consider the story itself.

After brexit, the French are (per the story) taking control of their border with the UK in their own national interest - precisely what Brexiteers say they want to do themselves. So this is cool, right?

No! It is bullying, interference in UK domestic politics, an attempt by the EU elite to keep the UK in the EU against their will etc. etc.

No matter what happens after Brexit, it will be the fault of foreigners, the EU, immigrants, Remoaners, Corbyn and Tory traitors. Never, ever caused by Brexit, and never a reason to consider that maybe brexit was a bad idea.

The people who voted leave will double down and destroy the UK before they will admit to themselves that they made a colossal error.

When people voted to take back control of borders I don’t think they meant to pull the drawbridge up and cut themselves off completely.

I’m sure you probably knew that though. The French have always had a unique way of doing diplomacy amongst their European neighbours anyway. Let’s not forget that there are many more French citizens than Irish citizens living in London nowadays, so cutting Britain adrift would cause hardship hundreds of thousands of their own citizens in England. It’s just silliness and won’t happen

Folkstonian

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

lawred2 wrote: »

People in Ireland will pay a price either way

And the British public will not learn any lessons either way.

There is a story floating around on Twitter that the French have threatened to close Calais if the UK do no pay their divorce bill. I have no idea if it is based on any facts, and for my purposes it doesn't matter if it is true or not, just consider the story itself.

After brexit, the French are (per the story) taking control of their border with the UK in their own national interest - precisely what Brexiteers say they want to do themselves. So this is cool, right?

No! It is bullying, interference in UK domestic politics, an attempt by the EU elite to keep the UK in the EU against their will etc. etc.

No matter what happens after Brexit, it will be the fault of foreigners, the EU, immigrants, Remoaners, Corbyn and Tory traitors. Never, ever caused by Brexit, and never a reason to consider that maybe brexit was a bad idea.

The people who voted leave will double down and destroy the UK before they will admit to themselves that they made a colossal error.

When people voted to take back control of borders I don’t think they meant to pull the drawbridge up and cut themselves off completely.

I’m sure you probably knew that though. The French have always had a unique way of doing diplomacy amongst their European neighbours anyway. Let’s not forget that there are many more French citizens than Irish citizens living in London nowadays, so cutting Britain adrift would cause hardship hundreds of thousands of their own citizens in England. It’s just silliness and won’t happen

ancapailldorcha

Folkstonian wrote: »

When people voted to take back control of borders I don’t think they meant to pull the drawbridge up and cut themselves off completely.

I’m sure you probably knew that though. The French have always had a unique way of doing diplomacy amongst their European neighbours anyway. Let’s not forget that there are many more French citizens than Irish citizens living in London nowadays, so cutting Britain adrift would cause hardship hundreds of thousands of their own citizens in England. It’s just silliness and won’t happen

French citizens living in London will be protected by the EU unless the British wish to welcome back their elderly expats from Spain. The Calais agreement is a UK-French accord which falls outside the EU's remit.