Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Scoondal

HugoRune wrote: »

UK could leave the EU and stay in the single market. i.e. honour the referendum result and minimise the damage.

That option disappeared sometime around August 2016. UK government rejected it.
But you are correct. You can leave EU but be an EEA member. That as you say honours the vote of UK citizens.
Unfortunately, UK logic has nothing to offer normal intelligent people.

Water John

TM and her advisors prioritised outflanking the Brexiteers in her Party. Thus her 3 red lines. It is these 3 red lines that are the difficulty. They were superimposed retrospectively on the Brexit vote.

Geuze

Scoondal wrote: »

The UK electorate did not vote for the type of Brexit (soft = EEA, hard = WTO but with EU agreements , or no deal = WTO trade rules, thousands of new agreements).
.

I would define EEA membership as a soft Brexit, staying in the single market, like Norway.

I define leaving the SM and CU as a hard Brexit? Is that correct?

Even with a withdrawal agreement, and a future FTA, leaving the SM+CU is a hard Brexit?

Capt'n Midnight

kuro68k wrote: »

The UK should just go for the Norway option.

Solves the Irish border. Remainers like it, Nigel Farage and Tory Brexiteers like it, the EU likes it...

Norway won't solve the border,
- unless you stick it in the Irish sea
- and / or customs union + Backstop

Norway is in the EEA and party to the Four Freedoms.
There is no guarantee the UK will stay in the EEA or adhere to all the Freedoms.

Norway benefits because they are a nett exporter of primary sector stuff like food , energy and raw materials and an importer of secondary sector stuff like manufactured goods. The UK is opposite.

Also the UK is heavily reliant on the tertiary sector AKA service sector and Norway Plus doesn't help much there.



There are only ten crossing points on the Norway border, over a thousand miles long. Not all are open 24/7. NI has 275 crossings.

https://www.newsinenglish.no/2013/02/08/customs-seeks-more-border-control/

Aftenposten reported this week that alarms flash if certain license plates are found to be suspicious for various reasons, either because of unpaid vehicle registration, for example, or ties to earlier smuggling cases.

The vehicle in question can then be waved aside and subjected to thorough searches on the spot.

The UK has already ruled out any extra cameras.



https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44054594

And the average time from when a lorry arrives to when it leaves the border? About 20 minutes. That includes roughly 10 minutes waiting time, three to six minutes of handling time, and the time spent coming off the road to complete the customs process.

LeinsterDub

First Up wrote: »

And where do you go from there?

It seems to be only a matter of time given a hard Brexit and demographics. But of course this is just pure speculation.

Anthracite

ambro25 wrote: »

By any measure of objectivity you care to consider, so far the EU has done exactly that.

Exactly: as per the Barnier slide, here are the options - pick one.

First Up

LeinsterDub wrote:

It seems to be only a matter of time given a hard Brexit and demographics. But of course this is just pure speculation.

Have you speculated what a route from ROI to the rest of the EU via Scotland might look like, and how it might be better than the routes currently available?

Anthracite

Folkstonian wrote: »

Certainly an attitude among some of my friends at home. Resigned to the fact that we are going down, but we will go down fighting and take as many as we can with us. And a few of these friends would not be the sort of people you’d maybe expect to hold that combative outlook.

However this episode in European history turns out, Britain and Europe are now certainly going to be weaker, more divided, and less influential. And the wounds will take decades to heal.

C’est la guerre, I suppose.

You could argue that Britain and its people need the cold shower that a hard Brexit will provide them with. The delusions of grandeur are nuts at this stage - sure they dwarf the island next door with ten times the population, and they expect us to bow and scrape to them, but it seems to have escaped their notice that China and India alone have over 40 times their population. On the global stage now, and even more so going forward, the UK is a nuclear-armed blip in the ocean, of no real consequence.

We are keenly aware of our own irrelevance on the world stage, and I think we have a pretty realistic attitude about it: f*ck it, who cares. I think the crowd next door need to learn this lesson quickly, and until they do, they will never really see the point of a voluntary politcal, economic and social alliance of liberal democracies spanning a continent.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Your point is very valid except that Scotland wouldn't be re-applying. They would be a brand new member of the EU. Of course, many of the existing EU rules and regulations are in place but much work would need to be done to integrate this brand new sovereign country at a political level.

I don't think Scotland not being able to join the EU straight away is a big problem as a Norway deal would be good enough during any transition period.

Scotland's economy is more like Norway than London.

They'd still be in the CTA too.

An Claidheamh

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

How did Harry Cole become a political correspondent?

http://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1055502615813992448

What a bunch of thin skinned babies the British media are.

They were never forced to enter the real world.

I still detect a hesitancy in the INM controlled/establishment media in Ireland for calling them out them and their politicians bizarre behaviour.

The ignorance levels among the British population and establishment make it very easy for any decently organised group - economic, corporate, paramilitary, Customs Union, Trade Organisation - to run rings around them before they even know what's happening.

LeinsterDub

First Up wrote: »

Have you speculated what a route from ROI to the rest of the EU via Scotland might look like, and how it might be better than the routes currently available?

I think you might be reading a little too much in to a glib comment

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/The3Million/status/1054442103667916800

Remember when EU citizens would barely have to fill out a form to get UK residency. Well it looks like the hoop jumping has begun. I'd not like to speculate were this will end.

Nody

Scoondal wrote: »

EU should facilitate this exit as easily as possible.

And all May had to do was write one single letter and they are leaving; how can it possible be any easier? Now the problem is of course May wants to leave while keeping a long laundry list of benefits from the membership in EU; that's a whole different can of worms there but leaving is as easy as it can get short of allowing e-mails.

Scoondal

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/The3Million/status/1054442103667916800

Remember when EU citizens would barely have to fill out a form to get UK residency. Well it looks like the hoop jumping has begun. I'd not like to speculate were this will end.

It appears that UK believe that they are Utopia. Briilliant, entertaining, can't wait for the next cringe moment.

I have one ... my wife was required to get a visa to go from Terminal 3 in Heathrow to Terminal 1 in Heathrow to connect to a flight. And this was eight years ago. Even the unwashed can't simply transfer via London Heathrow.

Enzokk

brickster69 wrote: »

I'm not sure of the exact text people are claiming commits the UK to an open (trade) border, but I would be grateful if someone would link me the text.

Here you go 
http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/today/good_friday/full_text.html

Also interested to see where having border controls for goods breaks this agreement. Because it is not there !

I am not sure if you have seen this piece by Tony Connelly and it has a few paragraphs on the GFA and Brexit and the border.

Brexit: A brief history of the backstop

Back in July, at Dublin’s bidding, the Barnier Task Force had asked London to explore all areas of north-south cooperation, the so-called mapping exercise, so London could spell out what it meant by protecting such cooperation.

By September, London had identified 142 areas of across-the-board cooperation that flowed from the Good Friday Agreement.

British and Irish officials travelled to Brussels to sift through all 142 areas to see where they relied upon, or were facilitated by, mutual EU membership.

The more they looked, the more it became clear – at least to the Task Force – that Brexit either explicitly or implicitly disrupted cross-border cooperation.

The cross-border health care that had flourished with the peace process, for example, was facilitated by the fact that ambulance regulations, medical devices, professional qualifications were all harmonised on both sides of the border because of EU rules.

Now according to this piece there are areas where Brexit disrupts cross-border cooperation. Is there any pieces that actually refutes this point where Brexit will not affect the Good Friday Agreement if they want to put up a border?

J Mysterio

Tommy Robinson invited to address US Congress members in Washington by Republican supporters

... What? How?... and why?

Spook_ie

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/The3Million/status/1054442103667916800

Remember when EU citizens would barely have to fill out a form to get UK residency. Well it looks like the hoop jumping has begun. I'd not like to speculate were this will end.

Well reading the list of documents they won't allow, would seem to be fake news

Documents you cannot use as evidence
photos and videos
letters or references from family and friends
greeting cards, for example birthday cards
postcards sent or received
personal scrapbooks
Published 22 October 2018

J Mysterio

Fair play to Alan Sugar for calling out these weasels. I mean, its well known that Johnson had two articles prepared for the Telegraph (remain/ leave) and chose leave last minute. Pure self interested career politician. Gove would stab anyone in the back to get ahead, as he already did do to Johnson.

Alan Sugar says Boris Johnson and Michael Gove should be imprisoned over Brexit 'lies'

The Apprentice host suggests 2016 referendum result should be declared 'void'

Meanwhile, an Oxford Economist accuses May of deliberately misquoting him (lying) for political benefit.

Oxford economist accuses Theresa May of 'lying' when she quoted him during PMQs

Academic suggests prime minister deliberately misquoted him in order to 'gain political effect' in attack on Labour

Lies, lies and damn lies.

LeinsterDub

Spook_ie wrote: »

Well reading the list of documents they won't allow, would seem to be fake news

Documents you cannot use as evidence
photos and videos
letters or references from family and friends
greeting cards, for example birthday cards
postcards sent or received
personal scrapbooks
Published 22 October 2018

I'm not sure what you're calling fake news?

10000maniacs

Scoondal wrote: »

But you cannot deny the will of UK citizens to ask to voluntarily leave EU.
EU is not a dictatorship or an invading country. All EU member countries may leave EU if they wish.
This is not what British colonies were allowed.
We, EU, give UK rights that they never gave to their colonies. We, EU, are the more progressive union of countries, regions and cultures that give mutual benefits.
If UK wants out, then they should be out.
We can criticise UK politics or deluded UK citizens or populist culture, etc. ... the fact is UK citizens voted to leave EU.
EU should facilitate this exit as easily as possible.

It is true we cannot deny the will of UK citizens to ask to voluntarily leave EU.
But giving the UK a deal that is more advantageous to them than if they were full members just to facilitate that their exit be as painless as possible is a non flier.
At least I hope its a non flier anyway for the sake of the wider EU.
I was watching BBC2's Politics Live today and there was another deluded Tory flogging yet another crazy brainwave. His idea was for the UK to remain a part of the EEA for a temporary period while May's EU deal is finalized.
Not a single mention of the Irish border in his proposal. It's as if the border issue is not on Tories radars at all. And it took a Labour MP to point it out to him.
Absolutely clueless.

Charles Babbage

10000maniacs wrote: »

At least I hope its a non flier anyway for the sake of the wider EU.
I was watching BBC2's Politics Live today and there was another deluded Tory flogging yet another crazy brainwave. His idea was for the UK to remain a part of the EEA for a temporary period while May's EU deal is finalized.
Not a single mention of the Irish border in his proposal. It's as if the border issue is not on Tories radars at all. And it took a Labour MP to point it out to him.
Absolutely clueless.

Clueless is althogether too kind a description. A lot of these people have Oxbridge degrees, they ge the Financial Times. They are choosing to present information in a particular way as they thunk they will benefit from it and are callous about the consequences.

breatheme

Enzokk wrote: »

I am not sure if you have seen this piece by Tony Connelly and it has a few paragraphs on the GFA and Brexit and the border.

Brexit: A brief history of the backstop



Now according to this piece there are areas where Brexit disrupts cross-border cooperation. Is there any pieces that actually refutes this point where Brexit will not affect the Good Friday Agreement if they want to put up a border?

The sad thing is, this is all done for NI, I believe wholeheartedly it is in NI's best interest to keep the all-island cooperation intact. Yet it is a party from NI disrupting this.

I feel, had that infamous election last year not taken place, this would've already been sorted. NI would have remained in the SM+CU.

If there is a border, it will be the DUP's fault. And NI will suffer.

Shelga

Watching Andrea Jenkyns on Question Time makes me feel truly sorry for the people of the UK and the utter mess they are running headfirst into.

Anthracite

J Mysterio wrote: »

Tommy Robinson invited to address US Congress members in Washington by Republican supporters

... What? How?... and why?

Well the why is easy - they want him to tell them the stuff that Fox News wants to report as fact about Muslims in Britain.

BonnieSituation

Shelga wrote: »

Watching Andrea Jenkyns on Question Time makes me feel truly sorry for the people of the UK and the utter mess they are running headfirst into.

They could always vote for other parties.

I'm tired of caring at this stage. March 29 won't come quick enough.

Spook_ie

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I'm not sure what you're calling fake news?

You quoting Twitter that they are jumping through hoops, its just a list of documents that will/won't be accepted as proof you were there for the qualifying period.

Kind of like documents for SUSI and the likes.

Capt'n Midnight

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Remember when EU citizens would barely have to fill out a form to get UK residency. Well it looks like the hoop jumping has begun. I'd not like to speculate were this will end.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45979359

Home Secretary Sajid Javid has apologised to people who were wrongly forced to take DNA tests to prove they were entitled to settle in the UK.

The rules are easy to understand There are 40,000 documents in seven IT systems

Unless there is a deal , and possibly even if there is one, EU citizens won't get preferential treatment.

Given Sajid Javid has only been in post since April, it raises questions for Amber Rudd, who resigned over misleading MPs over illegal immigrant targets, and her predecessor, the prime minister.

Theresa May presided over the Home Office for six years and back in 2012 said she wanted to create a "hostile environment" for illegal immigration.

I'm still saying that May has a bee in her bonnet over the European courts so a no deal would have that silver lining for her.

Capt'n Midnight

BBC Clickbait headline 'Prepare for new referendum' Barnier told

He was told that by the Lib Dems ... so meh.


But the SNP and Plaid are on board too
Sir Vince, the SNP's Ian Blackford, Plaid Cymru's Liz Saville Roberts and Green MEP Molly Scott Cato met Michel Barnier in Brussels.

If the EU didn't intervene in the internal matter of Catalonia there's not much hope here as long as May and the DUP hold a majority.

Scoondal

The Brits voted out of EU. None of their colonies had a democratic vote. So out is OUT of EU.
Does anyone have a problem with the fact " UK citizens voted to leave EU". Fact.
UK has never been positive towards Ireland.

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

Which begs the question-if the conditions you voted on have changed or you were misled,is`nt it reasonable to  think a second vote whether Scotland(remain in the UK) or Britain(remain in the EU) is a sensible option?

Yes. Mature democracies frequently have second votes when either conditions or opinions may have changed. There's nothing unusual about this.

What's weird is the Brexiter notion that holding a referendum on something somehow puts it beyond further democratic review for an unspecified but lengthy period. In this view a referendum is a device for setting a limit to democracy; for suspending normal democratic processes and rights. There is absolutely no reason why a referendum should have this effect, or why anyone would imagine that it did. And, if it did have this effect, no democrat would ever want a question to be submitted to referendum.