Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

judeboy101

Rhineshark wrote: »

Because the EU is about strength in unity, not seeking to better ourselves specifically at the expense of our neighbours.

But if it *has* to be "what can Scotland do for us", it would be handy to have that land bridge to the continent.

My geography isn't what it used to be but most of Scotland is surely further away from Europe than Ireland? What land bridge?

judeboy101

swampgas wrote: »

I'd prefer to cooperate with our neighbours. Do you even understand why the EU was created in the first place?

Ah yes that's why a pre erdogan secular turkey was welcomed with open arms into the club. Don't be silly, current members have a well established history of blocking membership of newbies.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

What's weird is the Brexiter notion that holding a referendum on something somehow puts it beyond further democratic review for an unspecified but lengthy period.

Of course this is only true because they won. Farage is on record saying that if they lost, the fight would go on.

murphaph

judeboy101 wrote: »

Ah yes that's why a pre erdogan secular turkey was welcomed with open arms into the club. Don't be silly, current members have a well established history of blocking membership of newbies.

Comparing 5 million strong Scotland, a country with no serious human rights issues and which has been part of the EU already for four and a half decades to Turkey is not serious debating.

Scotland would be welcomed back with open arms and the hope would be that a chastened England would then see sense and also ask to rejoin as an equal member. The EU is a long term project.

McGiver

Zubeneschamali wrote:

They have also not given up on the idea that these countries might one day change their minds and join more fully. It will be the same with Brexit, or with Scotland if they jump ship from the UK - the EU will look very favourably at these former members re-applying, but they may not want to get into the same special terms deals next time.

The funny thing is that the Scots (SNP) have been probably more exceptionalist than the English when they were thinking about independence and the EU. A lot of wishful thinking of the "EU will surely" and "EU will have to" type. But of course it's up to the negotiating team to agree on the conditions, but I wouldn't hold my head breath for Scotland given its size, diplomatic, political and negotiation power.

judeboy101

murphaph wrote: »

Comparing 5 million strong Scotland, a country with no serious human rights issues and which has been part of the EU already for four and a half decades to Turkey is not serious debating.

Scotland would be welcomed back with open arms and the hope would be that a chastened England would then see sense and also ask to rejoin as an equal member. The EU is a long term project.

Why accept a country that would insist on keeping sterling (snp stated that post indo they would keep it). Why accept a country that would have nuclear weapons (snp said they would allow brits use north sea bases for missile subs). Why accept another country that has a built in sectarian anti catholic political system?

lawred2

judeboy101 wrote: »

Why accept a country that would insist on keeping sterling (snp stated that post indo they would keep it). Why accept a country that would have nuclear weapons (snp said they would allow brits use north sea bases for missile subs). Why accept another country that has a lot built in sectarian anti catholic political system?

I think it's fair to presume that the promises of pre IndyRef expired on referendum day and will further expire on Brexit day.

The Earth has shifted significantly since that referendum. If there is an IndyRef 2 it will be in a completely different context to now.

Peregrinus

Every accession application is unique. Turkey ran into problems because it had significant long-standing disputes with Greece and Cyprus, two existing members states; Scotland won't face that problem. Plus, if Scotland leaves the UK in part as a response to Brexit, and because of a desire to retain or recover EU membership, that's something the EU will definitely wish to respond to positively and warmly, and I think would help to create a fair following wind. And of course Scotland will already be very well-placed to meet convergence criteria.

Obviously there will be some problematic issues - e.g. if Scotland wants to retain sterling (quite likely) or not join Schengen (very likely). But taking the wide view, there are far more factors favouring Scottish accession than there are impeding it, and I'd say the prospects of a compariatively fast accession are pretty good.

judeboy101

lawred2 wrote: »

I think it's fair to presume that the promises of pre IndyRef expired on referendum day and will further expire on Brexit day.

The Earth has shifted significantly since that referendum. If there is an IndyRef 2 it will be in a completely different context to now.

If you seriously think they will give up their head of state, that the brits will give up strategic north sea bases or that the scots economy can survive while not tethered to the boE, then that is true unicorn cakeism

Peregrinus

judeboy101 wrote: »

Why accept a country that would insist on keeping sterling (snp stated that post indo they would keep it).

That would have to be negotiated. But what the Scots wanted in 2014 may not be the same as what they might want post-Brexit, and a link with sterling woudl defintely be something off which a bit of shine would have gone.

judeboy101 wrote: »

Why accept a country that would have nuclear weapons (snp said they would allow brits use north sea bases for missile subs).

Because France. And (currently) UK. And because Belgium, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands all already host a non-member's nuclear missiles.

Seriously, this has never been a barrier to accession.

judeboy101 wrote: »

Why accept another country that has a built in sectarian anti catholic political system?

If it wasn't an obstacle to UK accession, it's not likely to be an obstacle to Scottish accession, esp. as independent Scotland will have dispensed with much of the sectarian and anti-Catholic trappings of the UK constitution.

Peregrinus

judeboy101 wrote: »

If you seriously think they will give up their head of state, that the brits will give up strategic north sea bases or that the scots economy can survive while not tethered to the boE, then that is true unicorn cakeism

We managed all this. Why should the Scots not?

LeinsterDub

Spook_ie wrote: »

You quoting Twitter that they are jumping through hoops, its just a list of documents that will/won't be accepted as proof you were there for the qualifying period.

Kind of like documents for SUSI and the likes.

They were originally told it would be a very simple process. Now several common types of proof are being rejected such as mobile bills, residential bills only provide residency for a month, p60 for a year. I don't about you but I don't have 5 years worth of these documents. I'm aware other evidence is acceptable but if you don't have that evidence you could be in major trouble

Based on recent events such as Windrush I can only assume this will get worse. If you don't want to call it jumping through hoops fair enough but it's not fake news (what a reductionist term) and I certainly can't see it getting any easier.

kuro68k

The Scots could do quite well out of leasing docks and nuclear weapon storage facilities back to the rUK.

lawred2

judeboy101 wrote: »

If you seriously think they will give up their head of state, that the brits will give up strategic north sea bases or that the scots economy can survive while not tethered to the boE, then that is true unicorn cakeism

Well whatever you think I posted I didn't post any of that...

Either way; those are issues for Scots to decide amongst themselves after they have been taken out of the EU and when/if the time comes for a second referendum their government at that time will have to put a plan in front of their voters.

A plan that is unlikely to look much like the plan or vision that preceded the first referendum. Simply because that plan has no relevance now that they would no longer be a member of the EU.

I'm not sure what your argument is or who it's with!

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

Well whatever you think I posted I didn't post any of that...

Either way; those are issues for Scots to decide amongst themselves after they have been taken out of the EU and when/if the time comes for a second referendum their government at that time will have to put a plan in front of their voters.

A plan that is unlikely to look much like the plan or vision that preceded the first referendum. Simply because that plan has no relevance now that they would no longer be a member of the EU.

I'm not sure what your argument is or who it's with!

The argument isn't whether Scotland would survive as an independent country if it left the UK, but about the cost of it staying in the UK after Brexit. Scotland benefits hugely from FDI, especially from the US. This would dry up and almost certainly reverse were Scotland to leave the EU along with the rest of the UK.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

the cost of it staying in the UK after Brexit.

Sterling will not look so stable and attractive if there is a no-deal brexit.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Sterling will not look so stable and attractive if there is a no-deal brexit.

But wouldn't the expectation be that Sterling will drop in a no deal scenario (it his weak at the moment against the historic norms)?

So in the short term that will lead to an influx of money to buy assets, people will buy goods from the UK as it will be cheaper etc. This wil be sold as the proof that Brexit is working perfectly fine and it was all just project fear.

There was an interesting tweet thread (can't find it now) that went through the DoF's forecasts for Brexit and in many of them they are very close to being right. For example, people like JRM point out that they said it would be a recession, but what they actually said was that growth would drop 3%. It appears that growth has indeed dropped by 2.5%. There were a number of other items like inflation etc that they were pretty close on.

The point being that Brexiteers have got across the narrative that all forecasts are inherently wrong (at least the ones that are negative to Brexit) when in reality in the main they are already starting to look pretty close to what is happening, and of course the actuals are based on the presumption of a deal.

seamus

Scotland does have a fast-track available to it back into the EU, in reality. While on paper they have to reapply like Turkey or any other non-member, realistically all they have to do is grandfather in pre-Brexit UK legislation, officially adopt the euro as their currency, and they instantly meet 2 out of the 3 core criteria for membership.

After that they simply have to prove their economy is functional (which is largely a derivative of the legislation above anyway), and they're on track.

That's not to say they can walk back in, in a month, 6 months or a year. But certainly when compared with the likes of Turkey, Scotland will have all of the documentation ready, they just have to go through the process. As a "new" sovereign state, they'd be in a rather unique scenario of not having any specific industries or trade deals that need protecting, so they could quickly negotiate some bridging trade deals or even EEA membership, in advance of full EU membership.

Leroy42 wrote: »

So in the short term that will lead to an influx of money to buy assets, people will buy goods from the UK as it will be cheaper etc. This wil be sold as the proof that Brexit is working perfectly fine and it was all just project fear.

While I have no doubt that a sudden boom in certain sectors would be sold as "proof that Brexit is working", a no-deal scenario results in a problem of how goods move in and out of the UK. Sterling will be cheap, but if Amazon have no idea how to ship goods from the UK to the EU on 1st April, then people can't capitalise on it. If the UK wasn't an island (say it was Germany) you could see a lot of border-hopping to avail of cheap goods to sell into the EU. But even that wouldn't be a possibility. Any company for whom exporting is a large component of their business could see that activity completely frozen.

I think there's the very real prospect of two weeks of absolute chaos unless something is worked out. Even a simple "no-deal deal" between the UK and EU that places an amnesty on border controls for a few weeks might be needed.

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

So in the short term that will lead to an influx of money to buy assets, people will buy goods from the UK as it will be cheaper etc. This wil be sold as the proof that Brexit is working perfectly fine and it was all just project fear.

But this is where the balance of trade comes in. As imports get more expensive, the costs of production and retail sales rise and that has a knock on effect on the price of exports.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

As imports get more expensive, the costs of production and retail sales rise and that has a knock on effect on the price of exports.

Don't forget that the UK exports mostly financial services, and imports food, medicine and fuel.

Imported goods getting more expensive for ordinary people because of devaluation is a real and immediate problem.

Hurrache

One thing I haven't seen is how online selling into Ireland would be affected, if at all, in the event of a no deal or extended transition period? Will customs be applied in a similar fashion to when you buy from say China etc?

Psychoss

Hurrache wrote: »

One thing I haven't seen is how online selling into Ireland would be affected, if at all, in the event of a no deal or extended transition period? Will customs be applied in a similar fashion to when you buy from say China etc?

Time to set up an amazon.ie indeed... they already have an operational presence anyway

Dont be at yourself

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Buying from amazon.co.uk will be the same as buying from amazon.com, expect to pay a chunk in tax in order to get your parcel released

Amazon.fr it is, so!

Psychoss

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Buying from amazon.co.uk will be the same as buying from amazon.com, expect to pay a chunk in tax in order to get your parcel released

Amazon.fr it is, so!

Or Amazon.de

Great choice, and ends up shipping from France or Luxembourg anyway (cameras and other hi-tech equipment)

seamus

prawnsambo wrote: »

But this is where the balance of trade comes in. As imports get more expensive, the costs of production and retail sales rise and that has a knock on effect on the price of exports.

Leroy's point though - which I agree with - is that in the short-term (I mean weeks), companies aren't going to front-load their future production costs into their current stock.
Whatever they have in stock will be sold/depleted, and it's only then that the impact of higher import costs will be properly felt.

For a short period, exporters may see a windfall/boom from foreign sales exploiting the weak pound. It's during this period that the Brexiteers can cheer on the success of Brexit.

When inflation rises sharply and exports collapse, they can then pin the blame on incompetent governance and hostile trading partners.

Hurrache

Like Psychoss mentions, using Amazon as an example they've already got a large presence here in terms of data centres and operational management. People have said before they have a fulfilment centre in Ireland but I've never found evidence of that. I don't know how much sense financially it would make for them to open a fulfilment centre in Ireland though, they may redirect that business via their centres in Spain or France.

But there's a lot of smaller companies who are set up to operate and sell throughout Europe who may take a bit of a hit in comparison to the likes of Amazon. Might be a boon for Irish businesses, or the consumers may just take a hit in the pocket.

RobMc59

Scoondal wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/The3Million/status/1054442103667916800

Remember when EU citizens would barely have to fill out a form to get UK residency. Well it looks like the hoop jumping has begun. I'd not like to speculate were this will end.

It appears that UK believe that they are Utopia. Briilliant, entertaining, can't wait for the next cringe moment.

I have one ... my wife was required to get a visa to go from Terminal 3 in Heathrow to Terminal 1 in Heathrow to connect to a flight. And this was eight years ago. Even the unwashed can't simply transfer via London Heathrow.

We can all tell tales of being wronged but surely that doesn't mean a whole nation are bad-surely?

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

We can all tell tales of being wronged but surely that doesn't mean a whole nation are bad-surely?

I would heartily reject any idea that the UK, the British or even Leave voters are somehow bad.

What you have to remember is that the sort of individual who posts in a tightly moderated Politics forum is sadly a rarity. They are unusually interested in Politics and are much more politically engaged as a result. This is sadly untrue of the population as a whole and this is true for most countries save for those with small populations and high levels of strife.

Then you have to remember that much of the UK is in economic decline, real or perceived. I think it's much more pronounced than in countries like Ireland as there is a rich, prosperous past to harken back to whereas Irish people emigrated en masse to seek work. Then a lot of jobs either moved abroad or were taken by machines and, thanks to a neoliberal attitude of the three main parties, no state investment or assistance was forthcoming with the result being that much of the UK was simply allowed to rot. The country became widely unequal as a result:



There are of course European examples of state investment like Germany but these were ignored for a much more laissz-faire flavour of capitalism.

Then came Brexit. Popular politicians like Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage came along and promised a land of milk and honey once the EU-imposed fetters were cut. People who don't read a lot about Politics reasonably thought that their elected officials wouldn't lie so brazenly about something this important and believed it with the result being that the party that sowed the seeds of Brexit reaped it as a result with the rest of us simply being along for the ride.

Could someone fill me in on the latest happenings? Just briefly. I've been busy and haven't had a chance to keep up. Thanks.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

Could someone fill me in on the latest happenings? Just briefly. I've been busy and haven't had a chance to keep up. Thanks.

UK are still arguing with itself.

EU waits patiently for the UK to decide what it actually wants.