Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

judeboy101

Rhineshark wrote: »

It is entirely possible that, having grown up with it, its more just a normal vagary of being a British citizen rather than a personal religious statement of hating Catholics.

Ignorance is no excuse when you are casting a ballot. It has led to the rise of many unsavory leaders.

A Dub in Glasgo

Off topic for sure but as an Irish Catholic living in Scotland, I have voted and will vote again for Scottish Independence. It has nothing to do with perferring the monarchy, personally I prefer a Republic but will take independence with a monarchy ahead of the status quo tyvm

Rhineshark

judeboy101 wrote: »

Ignorance is no excuse when you are casting a ballot. It has led to the rise of many unsavory leaders.

So their alternative is to....not vote?

bob mcbob

judeboy101 wrote: »

The scots accept overwhelming the presence of an anti catholic head of state and endorse via the ballot box a system of government that prevents a catholic from ever being PM. I see no difference between this and the Turkish situation and the SNP have categorically stated that they will retain the saxa-coburg gotha cadet branch as the source of all their future heads of state post indo, along with the inbuilt sectarian that comes with it.

The only positions specifically barred to Catholics are marriage to the sovereign or heir to the throne, or becoming sovereign themselves, a legacy of the Act of Settlement that followed the Glorious Revolution of 1688 and the deposition of the last Catholic monarch, James II.

So according to you logic, Australia, New Zealand, Malta, etc, etc, etc are sectarian and anti Catholic.

Why are you just singling out Scotland?

judeboy101

bob mcbob wrote: »

The only positions specifically barred to Catholics are marriage to the sovereign or heir to the throne, or becoming sovereign themselves, a legacy of the Act of Settlement that followed the Glorious Revolution of 1688 and the deposition of the last Catholic monarch, James II.

So according to you logic, Australia, New Zealand, Malta, etc, etc, etc are sectarian and anti Catholic.

Why are you just singling out Scotland?

Actually a catholic or jew cannot be pm. Blair had to wait til he quit to convert to RC and d'israeli , Jewish born , had to convert to CoE. Pm is responsible for coe bishops, and cannot abdicate that responsibility nor can the monarch do it.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Let's get back on topic please.

Enzokk

So with the Autumn budget on Monday, do we expect movement from May after this budget? I can understand the thinking behind this, get the DUP to not cause more chaos by voting down the budget and then you can talk about an all UK customs union and possibly some parts of NI within the single market due to the GFA.

But what about the ERG and the DUP after that? Will she be able to get this through with Labour votes? What about her red lines and her insistence that the ECJ will not have any say in the UK when this will be impossible if she wants to get a deal?

I still have trouble seeing her getting anything through parliament other than, well actually even a hard Brexit will not get through. The only deal I see getting through is a hard Brexit with a no-confidence vote attached to it. This would force the Tory rebels to decide on country over party and some have been on record as saying they would probably not force a general election.

Or is a no-deal the most likely but NI being kept in the customs union and single market to preserve the GFA? This would actually suit everybody other than the Remainers in the short term. I doubt May survives so there will be a general election soon surely. The ERG gets their wish as does the DUP. Labour will see the government pulling the trigger of the gun aimed at its foot. The EU has to face the consequences but at least the GFA is preserved and this would be short term most likely.

Then again there is the risk of that going belly up and their being a no-deal without a NI deal. That way everyone loses but the ERG and DUP, if only in the short term. So in fact after more than 2 years after the referendum we are at the same point as when the results were known. Seems a little pointless having posted this in all honesty.

Leroy42

I think the last few days have shown, most notably the recent 1922 meeting, that in the end the ERG will go along with whatever TM comes back with.

There will be a few dissenting voices, plenty of talk about the will of the people, but then a resignation that this is the best way forward but the fight continues.

The DUP will see that the only way they have any hope of staying relevant is to stay within the government will probably abstain or vote against if they are certain that enough others will vote for to carry the day.

Imreoir2

Infini wrote: »

Wouldn't be suprised if they set up an amazon.ie after brexit if there's no deal. That address atm auto redirects to the UK site but they'd probably set up one for ireland over a no deal.

This would be great, though an amazon.eu would be good too.

brickster69

RobMc59 wrote: »

Macron has replied to raabs remarks that the UK may have to use different ports instead of calais due to disruption-saying France wouldn't want to commit economic suicide and will ensure a fluid,trouble free trade route-rather flys in the face of the fear mongers theories ...

Sounds a bit more realistic. Just hope they sort out this Italy mess out, that's the biggest concern for everyone.

Junkyard Tom

It's a damn shame the key Brexit heads don't have the balls to admit to the public that they completely misjudged Britain's relative strength and underestimated the complexity of leaving the EU and the damage it will cause.

Capt'n Midnight

judeboy101 wrote: »

If you seriously think they will give up their head of state, that the brits will give up strategic north sea bases or that the scots economy can survive while not tethered to the boE, then that is true unicorn cakeism

Who is the Head of State of Canada, or New Zealand or Oz or loads of other countries ??

There were Treaty Ports here until 1938, and the UK still has many overseas bases. Consider too that the US has a base in Cuba.

The Scottish economy might run a little better if the oil revenues weren't siphoned off south, or indeed kept the tax rates up instead of giving the oil producers rebates.

Even if Scotland couldn't use sterling they could still peg to it, like we did for half century. And it's not like everywhere in England accepts Scottish or NI currency today. And then there is the fun and games over the amount of English money the Scottish banks have to keep.

10000maniacs

Scoondal wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Why not? There have been multiple marches in London recently, the latest involving 700,000 people marching for a referendum on the final deal. It's true that the UK voted to leave the EU on the 23rd June 2016. It's far from objective that people still want to leave. If it were, the Brexiteers would have no problem with a referendum on the final deal. But such a referendum is a means to hold them to account and given the farcical performance on their part over the last few years, it's one they know they'd lose.



How do you know that it isn't?

It was impressive to see so many demonstate on a final deal vote. 48% of the voters voted to remain.
But opinion polls show very little shift of opinion.
EU totally accept that UK will leave EU. The Irish government accept the democratic vote. The details have to be worked out but UK are definitely leaving EU.
The only big question now is ... Will it be a hard Brexit (good) or a No deal Brexit (bad).

I sincerely doubt the referendum will go the same way if run again.
2 million Brits have died since the poll. And 1.7 million more people are eligible to vote that were too young in June 2016.
That statistic swings it by at least 3% on it's own. Also will British voters swallow the Farage, Johnson and Mogg drivel next time? If they do then I take my hat off to them, well done brexiteers.

Capt'n Midnight

Forget about Northern Ireland there's stuff the British public care about at risk.

Brexit won't ruin Strictly Come Dancing - No 10

BBC may be misreporting that as what was actually said was just an opinion.
But a Downing Street spokesperson said: "I think Strictly will be fine."

Strazdas

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

It's a damn shame the key Brexit heads don't have the balls to admit to the public that they completely misjudged Britain's relative strength and underestimated the complexity of leaving the EU and the damage it will cause.

It may come to that. The narrative simply has to move on at some point. If things get really bad, people won't be able to hide behind the lies any longer.

They've been able to maintain the pretence that all is well and good with Brexit because it hasn't come crashing down yet.

Capt'n Midnight

Same old same old, companies reducing investments

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/10/26/biz_including_bmw_airbus_and_siemens_to_slash_uk_tech_spending_as_firms_losing_patience_with_brexit/

Some 34 per cent of 600 companies Forrester spoke to said they are planning to reduce spending due to Brexit, with 13 per cent talking of relocating “all of their capacities outside of the UK”.

Leroy42

MP's and commentators in the UK continue to trot out lines like the one below,which is being said in relation to the fact that the UK will loose access to the EHIC due to Brexit.

And Guto Bebb, a Conservative MP who backs the People’s Vote campaign, said: “People did not vote for Brexit in order to make their lives more costly or complicated, but that’s the reality we’re heading towards.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-health-medical-treatment-ehic-theresa-may-best-for-britain-a8603286.html

Why do they keep saying this type of nonsense. Particularly in this case, yes, yes that is exactly what they voted for. They voted to leave, which meant leaving schemes such as this.

The MP's need to start being honest with the people. It is this type of nonsense talk, where they seem to suggest that it is purely down to bad government rather than BRexit itself, that created the Brexit vote in the 1st place. Many voters were made feel that anything they lost would simply be made up for. It was a win-win situation.

kuro68k

Leroy42 wrote: »

Why do they keep saying this type of nonsense. Particularly in this case, yes, yes that is exactly what they voted for. They voted to leave, which meant leaving schemes such as this.

That's the reality of what they voted for, but back in 2016 it's not what they were sold. Remember that they were told we would remain in the single market and customs union, that everything would be milk and honey.

Yes they were unbelievably stupid and gullible, but that doesn't change the fact that they were deliberately mislead.

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

That's the reality of what they voted for, but back in 2016 it's not what they were sold. Remember that they were told we would remain in the single market and customs union, that everything would be milk and honey.

Yes they were unbelievably stupid and gullible, but that doesn't change the fact that they were deliberately mislead.

Very few people thought the gov would be crazy enough to do what they ultimately did.

That was the real betrayal of democracy in terms if using a referendum. Here, we know what the consequences will be before we vote. No government would get away with - say, the abortion ref - making abortion freely available for the full nine months. It wasn't what was offered. In the UK they took the result and did a decathlon with it before jumping into a mud pit.

Mind you, there was a bit of shnakiness over the "woman's place in the home".

Capt'n Midnight

Probably a coincidence but a reminder of what might happen if there was a hard border.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46001524

Two men have been arrested on suspicion of arson after a former customs building was extensively damaged by fire in Newry, County Down.

J Mysterio

These young schoolchildren seem to have a pretty good grasp of the backstop. A bit more advanced then some...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/i-sleep-in-northern-ireland-but-my-living-room-is-in-the-republic-1.3677234?mode=amp

trellheim

AM I going mad or is there no negotiation going on at the moment ? We are currently still in no-deal land.

Enzokk

trellheim wrote: »

AM I going mad or is there no negotiation going on at the moment ? We are currently still in no-deal land.

Many commentators predicted that we would sleepwalk into a no deal, even when both parties want a deal. Because both have set out their stalls and will not move from it. Unfortunately the EU cannot move from its position, but Theresa May has set out her red lines as well so sleepwalk to B-Day it is.

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

AM I going mad or is there no negotiation going on at the moment ? We are currently still in no-deal land.

Budget next week, so when that is through, the DUP can be thrown under the bus and will either walk out of Gov or just threaten to, and the Gov can decide whether to try and get the deal through the HOC or just call a GE. The deal is agreed at negotiators level, and EU level, but awaits UK political agreement.

cml387

I think it's all gone quiet because the deal is done, along the lines of Olly Robbins and Barnier's agreement a few weeks ago (the one that had Rabb flying to Brussels).

Get the budget out of the way and then come back to the commons, persuade Labour that it's the best deal on offer and hope for the best.

Rhineshark

Unfortunately, UK political agreement was always going to be the difficult bit.

A Dub in Glasgo

trellheim wrote: »

AM I going mad or is there no negotiation going on at the moment ? We are currently still in no-deal land.

This analysis from Tony Connelly today is excellent at explaining where we are

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/1027/1006996-brexit-negotiation-teams/

Imreoir2

J Mysterio wrote: »

These young schoolchildren seem to have a pretty good grasp of the backstop. A bit more advanced then some...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/i-sleep-in-northern-ireland-but-my-living-room-is-in-the-republic-1.3677234?mode=amp

"Lots of people have died in the past, and I don't want to die now"

Bit of a punch to the gut right there.

trellheim

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

This analysis from Tony Connelly today is excellent at explaining where we are

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/1027/1006996-brexit-negotiation-teams/

Yes thanks for that - I knew most of it but not what is keeping things on the move. Laura Kuenssberg had been tweeting about three-line whips next week for the budget so you may be right - it may just be politics to get the budget over the line and then they can whip the covers off the deal

Rhineshark

trellheim wrote: »

Yes thanks for that - I knew most of it but not what is keeping things on the move. Laura Kuenssberg had been tweeting about three-line whips next week for the budget so you may be right - it may just be politics to get the budget over the line and then they can whip the covers off the deal

Does put the DUP in a bit of a bind. If everyone else is speculating this is the plan then I have no doubt they're considering that too.

Mind you, even with the budget safely out of the way, do we have any actual indications how the ERG wing are going to behave?