Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

AM I going mad or is there no negotiation going on at the moment ? We are currently still in no-deal land.

Apparently UK cabinet divisions called a halt to the talks (this was reported by different sources during the week). There is nothing to be discussed with the EU, not while the cabinet are arguing among themselves and can't agree on anything.

Water John

I presume TM has Hammond insert the £1bn for NI into the Budget and put that vote last.. The DUP can then decide.

Capt'n Midnight

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I was thinking on the subject, so many here think NI will want to be reunited with Republic due to bad brexit negatively impacting NI economy.

But we do not have the NHS here, this point alone will be a blocker for many if there is a referendum, maybe our government politically needs to get its hands dirty and rebrand HSE and private insurance systems as NHS.ie, it will take years, but if start now it would be in place for a unification referendum.

tl:dr: Brexit is going to be quite a stick, but we need to get the carrots lined up, if unification is the aim (not sure myself if i want it yet, i can see arguments on both sides).

Our health care is slowly getting better while the NHS is being starved of funds. Up North there are more freebies but the dole is higher down here. Of course there is always the possibility of a backstop, like the triple lock on UK pensions* , so that no one there looses out.


Theresa May has refused to rule out giving US companies access to NHS contracts as part of a future trade deal with Donald Trump’s White House.


*I blame this in part for Brexit, the "generation that never had it so good" are isolated from the effects unless the economy completely collapses.

Imreoir2

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I was thinking on the subject, so many here think NI will want to be reunited with Republic due to bad brexit negatively impacting NI economy.

But we do not have the NHS here, this point alone will be a blocker for many if there is a referendum, maybe our government politically needs to get its hands dirty and rebrand HSE and private insurance systems as NHS.ie, it will take years, but if start now it would be in place for a unification referendum.

tl:dr: Brexit is going to be quite a stick, but we need to get the carrots lined up, if unification is the aim (not sure myself if i want it yet, i can see arguments on both sides).

I'm not sure that there is too much substance to the health care arguement. People in every country like to think that their health service is the worst in the world and has problems that would never be tolorated in another country. The reality is that it is the nature of the sector that failings become scandels because of the human consequences that result and if you want to paint the HSE, or any health service in any country, as being a horrendus problem then you will find plenty of evidence to make a compelling arguement. If you actually look at the stats on healthcare outcomes in Ireland compared to the UK or elsewhere in Europe, I don't think you will find a compelling case that the good people of NI have much to lose.

lawred2

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I'm not sure that there is too much substance to the health care arguement. People in every country like to think that their health service is the worst in the world and has problems that would never be tolorated in another country. The reality is that it is the nature of the sector that failings become scandels because of the human consequences that result and if you want to paint the HSE, or any health service in any country, as being a horrendus problem then you will find plenty of evidence to make a compelling arguement. If you actually look at the stats on healthcare outcomes in Ireland compared to the UK or elsewhere in Europe, I don't think you will find a compelling case that the good people of NI have much to lose.

Ultimately it's prescription costs, GP costs and cost at point of entry in to the hospital system in Ireland that people would focus on.

And then you have the need for PHI.

These direct costs are all on top of the indirect taxation costs to an organisation that spends more per head of capita than most other Europe Health systems for what would hardly be described as a top class system.

Highlighting the outcomes is all well and good but the fact is we pay significantly more than most for the same level of outcome as most Europeans are accustomed to.

Kermit.de.frog

I think there is a better than 50\50 chance the DUP may be cast aside after the budget for a deal.

She was never going to make a move before the budget.

Sam Russell

On health care, there is a move to universal health care, free at the point of use. Already, those under 6 and over 70 have Doctor visit cards. Medical cards are available following a means test. Drug costs are a problem, but there is a cap on that through the Drugs Repayment Scheme. So we are getting there.

If there was to be a reunification referendum, then all aspects would be laid out beforehand, and a likely transition period would be involved.

Should Stormont become part of a regional or local government structure? Would guaranties be given to parties in the north? Lots to think about and work out.

This can all be worked out in time, if ,and only if, there is likely to be a positive outcome to such a referendum. At the current time, that is unlikely.

Thargor

I never heard of this before:

www.channel4.com/news/nigel-farage-ukip-letter-school-concerns-racism-fascism

Anyone else that would be brought up every time his name is mentioned, right-wingers seem to get such a free pass from the media these days...

Rhineshark

https://twitter.com/RCorbettMEP/status/1056647059300929537?s=19

Interesting notes on this. The poll itself was behind a paywall and the Times has been fairly pro-Brexit. So an intriguing result there with 70% pro a second vote.

Not really sure how to make it appear as an image.

Edit: Poll was a mix of Times (pro-Brexit) and Sunday Times (anti-Brexit) readers.

Water John

Would Greening have traction if it was between her and a Brexiteer?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/29/justine-greening-hints-at-conservative-leadership-bid-theresa-may

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1056831744937213953


Checks calendar. Nope it's not April 1st.


I honestly thought this was a joke when I initially seen it.

Enzokk

LeinsterDub wrote: »

[url]

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1056831744937213953

[/url]


Checks calendar. Nope it's not April 1st.


I honestly thought this was a joke when I initially seen it.

Tweet seems to have been deleted, what was it about?

Seth Brundle

Enzokk wrote: »

Tweet seems to have been deleted, what was it about?

Dodgy link above. It should be...
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1056831744937213953

lawred2

Commerative coins are quite possibly the dullest things ever..

This gesture can be added to all the other meaningless jingoistic nonsense suggested by the Tories... Along with Union day etc

Bread and circuses

Rhineshark

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Dodgy link above. It should be...
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1056831744937213953

Oh the coin!

Yeah, right up there with blue passports and the Brexit street party in terms of silly fripperies to distract from all the really serious issues that need sorting.

So I assume there'll be a Brexit postage stamp next.

Strazdas

Rhineshark wrote: »

Oh the coin!

Yeah, right up there with blue passports and the Brexit street party in terms of silly fripperies to distract from all the really serious issues that need sorting.

So I assume there'll be a Brexit postage stamp next.

It's the type of political stunt you'd expect an authoritarian regime to pull.

Interesting to see the reaction on Twitter though. I'd say 95% of the tweets are utter scorn and derision.

judeboy101

So will Hammond put away a warchest or will the NHS get £354 million extra a day?

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkels-farewell-leaves-germany-at-crossroads/a-46077243

This is now officially German Chancellor Angela Merkel's last term in office. The dominant figure in German and European politics for more than a decade announced Monday she will step down as party leader of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in December and not seek re-election as chancellor in 2021.

This is not good news for the UK.

If a new party leader forces an election then this could be very bad for the UK.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkels-farewell-leaves-germany-at-crossroads/a-46077243

This is not good news for the UK.

If a new party leader forces an election then this could be very bad for the UK.

In terms of Germany ratifying any deal, or because Merkel would be one of the kinder EU politicians? Genuine question.

cml387

I imagine the British press would be hoping for Leo Varadkar to go as well, because a Fianna Fail leader would be much more accommodating.

Pause for small giggle.

micosoft

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/offbeat/britain-set-to-unveil-new-50p-coin-to-commemorate-brexit-1.3679518

New Hard Brexit fifty pence coin announced. Worth 40 cent for pre-order.

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

In terms of Germany ratifying any deal, or because Merkel would be one of the kinder EU politicians? Genuine question.

If the UK do a deal before the deadline they should be OK because the EU have delegated negotiations to a competent and professional team.

But it's likely they won't so they'll be looking for an extension.
Or having a divisive referendum on the deal and then asking for an extension or tweaking the deal.



It could go a few ways.

A Merkel ally gets in , things continue as they are in Germany but without the same influence with the rest of the EU.

On the other hand if the new party leader wants to change things especially in light of recent elections with the Greens and AFD taking votes the UK could become an acceptable target.

If an election is triggered and someone makes a deal with the AFD ...

McGiver

Sam Russell wrote:

If there was to be a reunification referendum, then all aspects would be laid out beforehand, and a likely transition period would be involved.

Your could also argue that if UI poll was on the table, the RoI government could make a further move towards universal health care in order to support a higher likelihood of a successful uo poll.

Hurrache

We don't have the money for neither universal healthcare, nor a united Ireland, we'd really struggle to do both.

J Mysterio

Seems many will be forced to live in Brexit Britain - No escape!

Number of refused British applications for Irish passports rises dramatically

Over 15,000 applications were turned down last year, up from just one refusal in 2016

Sam Russell

Hurrache wrote: »

We don't have the money for neither universal healthcare, nor a united Ireland, we'd really struggle to do both.

Depends on the settlement terms.

!. UK could agree to continue subvention for, say, ten years.

2. EU could agree to give significant regional funds and investment funds.

3. EU could allow Ireland to go outside existing borrowing limits.

I would think NI would come with zero share of the UK national debt, contributing to item 3 above.

Then again, the UK could be desperate to get rid of NI and its ongoing costs, and could be super-generous.

All depends.

Thargor

J Mysterio wrote: »

Seems many will be forced to live in Brexit Britain - No escape!

Number of refused British applications for Irish passports rises dramatically

Over 15,000 applications were turned down last year, up from just one refusal in 2016

Where do we even get the staff for 15000 refusals up fom 1? Is that automated?

Sam Russell

Thargor wrote: »

Where do we even get the staff for 15000 refusals up fom 1? Is that automated?

Refusals can be very quick - no Irish parents or grandparents - improper paperwork - incomplete paperwork, missing birth certs and marriage certs - no fee. Easy.

McGiver

Hurrache wrote:

We don't have the money for neither universal healthcare, nor a united Ireland, we'd really struggle to do both.

Sure, and that's why you spend the second highest money per capita on healthcare in OECD (after the US)? Because there is no money...

The money is there but it's mismanaged, wasted and stolen. HSE is clearly the most inefficient healthcare system in Europe when it comes to bang for the buck.

Charles Babbage

Hurrache wrote: »

We don't have the money for neither universal healthcare, nor a united Ireland, we'd really struggle to do both.

The NI model could be afforded rightly, as per capita spending is less than in the 26 counties.

All you need is an efficient system.



As stated by others, the affordibility of a United Ireland depends on the deal. It is very much in Britain's interest to do a good deal, just as a company might be glad of a lose making subsidiary, but I would be concerned that they might have an eye on Scotland and act the maggot.