Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Zubeneschamali

EKRIUQ wrote: »

People presume the government are going to get the best deal and are just carrying on with things and I think the polls reflect this.

It is important to note from various boardsies personal contributions here over the last couple of years that this does not just apply to Joe Soap in the street in Leeds.

Bankers, traders, business owners are all jogging merrily along believing that it won't be so bad, the Government will obviously sort it out, the noise from Westminster is just the usual party politics.

This means sterling and the stock market have not really priced in any possible Brexit, because they have been accepting government happy talk about frictionless trade. If there is a deal, reality will dawn slowly during the transition period, and sterling slide slowly towards parity with the Euro.

If no deal looks like a real thing (maybe in February) and these people finally accept that it is a real risk, Sterling will drop like a lead balloon.

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

Yeah their heads are firmly buried in the sand. They can't be engaged with reality because to be so would force them to face up to the consequences of their vote.

i.e. "Brexit means Brexit" and "get on with it"

It's moved on to "hard brexit is what we voted for". That's the inevitable endpoint of finding out that there's no form of brexit that doesn't require some form of compromise and that doesn't sit easily with "taking back control". So the only possible 'victory' in this warped view is to crash out completely and show the EU what's what.

And that also deals with all the stuff they don't like, such as having to do something about the border and paying the divorce settlement with the EU. They have been persuaded and have persuaded themselves that that's what they voted for, despite the fact that not one of the proponents of brexit tabled this as an option during the referendum.

An Ciarraioch

Barclays moving €250 billion worth of financial services from London to Dublin:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/barclays-seeking-to-move-250bn-business-to-republic-ahead-of-brexit-1.3680943

prawnsambo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Barclays moving €250 billion worth of financial services from London to Dublin:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/barclays-seeking-to-move-250bn-business-to-republic-ahead-of-brexit-1.3680943

Yeah. That's been mooted since July. They're just now getting High Court approval to move clients to another jurisdiction and under a different set of laws.

Professor Moriarty

Tell me how wrote: »

My brother lives long term in England. He is home at the moment.

I asked him what is the vibe on the street amongst people he meets (he's a vet) and he said none really because most people don't understand what is going on and just think they should get on with it.

He thinks that if there was another vote tomorrow it would likely still pass because most don't think beyond "Brexit means Brexit".

He thinks its very easy for the Brexiteers to appeal to these people and blame the EU for everything.

I'm beginning to think like a Brexiteer at this stage. Brexit means Brexit, now, FFS, just get on with it.

Mezcita

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm beginning to think like a Brexiteer at this stage. Brexit means Brexit, now, FFS, just get on with it.

100%. I unwisely listened to this last night. The Spectator live panel podcast on what happens if there is a no deal:

https://audioboom.com/posts/7066142-spectator-live-brexit-deal-or-no-deal

Basically Ken Clarke versus a bunch of Brexit fans including David Davis.
Highlights included Davis saying that the EU will break at the last minute to give the UK what they want (1.00). How the EU is out to punish the UK by leaving (1.08). Finally, how Varadkar should be blamed for escalating the problem about the border as he is nowhere near as accommodating as Enda was (can't find that bit).

They genuinely haven't learnt a thing in the last two years. The only way they will learn is once all hell breaks loose as a result of no deal.

Time to let them roll the dice.

prawnsambo

I'm starting to think that when they say "hard brexit", they're thinking 'hard' like a Newcastle supporter with no top on at St. James's Park in the dead of winter, rather than 'hard' like a pavement after a fall from a tenth floor window.

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote:

I'm beginning to think like a Brexiteer at this stage. Brexit means Brexit, now, FFS, just get on with it.

By "get on with it" I presume you mean a no deal Brexit?

Professor Moriarty

Tell me how wrote: »

By "get on with it" I presume you mean a no deal Brexit?

I'm rapidly reaching the point of indifference. Either come up with a credible plan that is deliverable or just leave.

Leroy42

My view is that any deal is pointless at this stage. At the very most, a deal is simply a postponement of a crash out and will lead to any and all problems that come after it being blamed on the deal itself (and obviously the EU).

I simply cannot see a way that the itch will be satisfied by anything other than a crash out with no deal.

People need to see what the actual effects will be to remove this easy answer of "Project Fear". Thus I think that Barnier etc have all been wasting their time. A deal might be done, TM might even get it through HoC, but the likes of Johnson, JRM etc have their soapbox now and there are plenty of people that will see any deal as simply a staging post.

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm rapidly reaching the point of indifference. Either come up with a credible plan that is deliverable or just leave.

It's really in the hands of the Tory government. They've been faffing about trying to persuade themselves that they're engaged in some kind of post-brexit negotiations with the EU when they're actually just supposed to be doing the housekeeping prior to heading off. It's slowly dawning on them that there is actually a big bad world out there and that they have to deal with it from a position of weakness. The more unprepared they perceive they are, the more likely that they will collapse completely and call the whole thing off. It is a cse of who blinks first, but the EU really hold all the cards and have no reason to.

Tell me how

prawnsambo wrote:

It's really in the hands of the Tory government. They've been faffing about trying to persuade themselves that they're engaged in some kind of post-brexit negotiations with the EU when they're actually just supposed to be doing the housekeeping prior to heading off. It's slowly dawning on them that there is actually a big bad world out there and that they have to deal with it from a position of weakness. The more unprepared they perceive they are, the more likely that they will collapse completely and call the whole thing off. It is a cse of who blinks first, but the EU really hold all the cards and have no reason to.

Not just the Tories.
Labours (largely) sitting on the fence and making bland statements should be shocking to the UK electorate.

They are stunningly pathetic in opposition throughout all this.

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote:

I'm rapidly reaching the point of indifference. Either come up with a credible plan that is deliverable or just leave.

I think that's the point. They know a credible deliverable plan is proving impossible to identify.
I don't believe planes will fall out of the sky if there is no deal but the fact that it seems nothing is going to be on the table (apart from can kicking) is completely the fault of the UK.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

My view is that any deal is pointless at this stage. At the very most, a deal is simply a postponement of a crash out and will lead to any and all problems that come after it being blamed on the deal itself (and obviously the EU).

I don't understand the rush - A50 started a 2 year process, and the 2 years are not up yet. There is still time to land a deal.

There is huge, huge money for both sides in a deal. Crash-out is simple vandalism, destruction for no benefit whatsoever for anyone.

Of course dysfunction at Westminster might mean we end up with no deal, but the EU side can and will remain open until the crash actually happens, and ready to assist after it.

And again - nobody on the EU side of the table has to care who the UK public blame for any of this anymore. That is the UK governments problem now.

J Mysterio

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Is this a surprise though? We now have a modern Western government introducing a shiny new coin to distract the population from the fact that it might have to hire boats to ensure an adequate food supply. And this is the sixth (recently overtaken by California) wealthiest economy in the world.

I'm not sure California counts. It's not a republic yet :pac: Is US not also in the list?

prawnsambo

Tell me how wrote: »

Not just the Tories.
Labours (largely) sitting on the fence and making bland statements should be shocking to the UK electorate.

They are stunningly pathetic in opposition throughout all this.

Yeah, Labour have been as schizophrenic on this as the Tories. That the two main political parties have been internally divided on this since before the referendum is probably the most perfect, perfect storm that the UK could ever have gone through. No leadership anywhere to be found.

ancapailldorcha

J Mysterio wrote: »

I'm not sure California counts. It's not a republic yet :pac: Is US not also in the list?

It was something random I learned a few days ago. Alone, it is wealthier than the UK.

EKRIUQ

Leroy42 wrote: »

People need to see what the actual effects will be to remove this easy answer of "Project Fear". Thus I think that Barnier etc have all been wasting their time. A deal might be done, TM might even get it through HoC, but the likes of Johnson, JRM etc have their soapbox now and there are plenty of people that will see any deal as simply a staging post.

I was at the protest march in London 2 weeks ago not by planning but by circumstances and got talking to a lot of people who were pro EU but their mindset was we'll see what the deal is and then we should vote (Peoples Vote). No deal should be passed unless people get an opportunity to vote on it not a vote to stay in the EU.

If they do get a second referendum and this time is to stay in EU and is passed it would have been an utter waste of the EU's time for the last 2 years, which it will be heading to a no deal scenario.

I've seen enough political debates on the BBC, ITV and channel 4 to be sure that the political mindset is not going to change so for me Brexit means Brexit.

Zubeneschamali

EKRIUQ wrote: »

If they do get a second referendum and this time is to stay in EU and is passed it would have been an utter waste of the EU's time for the last 2 years, which it will be heading to a no deal scenario.

The money involved in a remain vs. FTA vs. no deal is gigantic, hundreds of billions, and well worth the EU burning some hours even if any sort of deal is a long shot.

Sam Russell

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The money involved in a remain vs. FTA vs. no deal is gigantic, hundreds of billions, and well worth the EU burning some hours even if any sort of deal is a long shot.

Questioning the money wasted on the negotiations is like questioning the cost of a trial. Justice takes time and money.

lawred2

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The money involved in a remain vs. FTA vs. no deal is gigantic, hundreds of billions, and well worth the EU burning some hours even if any sort of deal is a long shot.

This applies moreso to the UK. It's their neck on the chopping block. Sure the EU don't want to get blood on their shoes when the axe falls but the primary issue is for the UK!

Frank Bullitt

Mezcita wrote: »

100%. I unwisely listened to this last night. The Spectator live panel podcast on what happens if there is a no deal:

https://audioboom.com/posts/7066142-spectator-live-brexit-deal-or-no-deal

Basically Ken Claire versus a bunch of Brexit fans including David Davis.
Highlights included Davis saying that the EU will break at the last minute to give the UK what they want (1.00). How the EU is out to punish the UK by leaving (1.08). Finally, how Varadkar should be blamed for escalating the problem about the border as he is nowhere near as accommodating as Enda was (can't find that bit).

They genuinely haven't learnt a thing in the last two years. The only way they will learn is once all hell breaks loose as a result of no deal.

Time to let them roll the dice.

I am 3 minutes in and I can't grasp how stupid of David Davis is. Why would both sides be equally afraid of a no-deal? The EU will still have their trade agreements in place and the cogs will still turn, granted not as smooth, but the UKs will turn to dust.

Zubeneschamali

Gintonious wrote: »

IThe EU will still have their trade agreements in place

Trade deals between foreigners and other foreigners can scarcely be very important, what?

It's trade between foreign parts and the UK which matter.

Strazdas

Mezcita wrote: »

100%. I unwisely listened to this last night. The Spectator live panel podcast on what happens if there is a no deal:

https://audioboom.com/posts/7066142-spectator-live-brexit-deal-or-no-deal

Basically Ken Claire versus a bunch of Brexit fans including David Davis.
Highlights included Davis saying that the EU will break at the last minute to give the UK what they want (1.00). How the EU is out to punish the UK by leaving (1.08). Finally, how Varadkar should be blamed for escalating the problem about the border as he is nowhere near as accommodating as Enda was (can't find that bit).

They genuinely haven't learnt a thing in the last two years. The only way they will learn is once all hell breaks loose as a result of no deal.

Time to let them roll the dice.

Yes, they are not pragmatists.....more like fantasists living out an ideology. It's a mixture of ignorance and delusion and them listening to each other only for the last two and a half years. They don't know what the EU is or how it works and know very little about international trade.

Anyone who gets in the way of the ideology (Barnier, Varadkar, Macron etc) is an enemy.

Tell me how

Gintonious wrote: »

I am 3 minutes in and I can't grasp how stupid of David Davis is. Why would both sides be equally afraid of a no-deal? The EU will still have their trade agreements in place and the cogs will still turn, granted not as smooth, but the UKs will turn to dust.

Because if things proceed without difficulty, it undermines the validity of all trade negotiations, bilateral agreements and rules.

It would make it impossible to charge and prosecute anyone who may do something which ultimately puts people in danger because both jurisdictions did not have an agreed set of rules as to how they would interact.

It will make it harder to enforce rules and agreements on errant members if the EU engage easily with the UK without anything in place.

The EU very much want there to be a deal in place.

Frank Bullitt

Tell me how wrote: »

Because if things proceed without difficulty, it undermines the validity of all trade negotiations, bilateral agreements and rules.

It would make it impossible to charge and prosecute anyone who may do something which ultimately puts people in danger because both jurisdictions did not have an agreed set of rules as to how they would interact.

It will make it harder to enforce rules and agreements on errant members if the EU engage easily with the UK without anything in place.

The EU very much want there to be a deal in place.

Fully agree, surely at this stage though the biggest issue and hold up is NI, and what will happen to the GFA. Which seems to be just offloaded to the EU from the UK in how to solve it.

As a novice on all of this, I struggle to keep up with what the hell is going on (I am not alone I am sure), I find this thread super helpful with that though. Keep up the good work lads and ladies.

Tell me how

Gintonious wrote: »

Fully agree, surely at this stage though the biggest issue and hold up is NI, and what will happen to the GFA. Which seems to be just offloaded to the EU from the UK in how to solve it.

That's because it is so complex and why May calling for an election which ended up with the DUP holding the ability to bring down the government was like the script from a movie where something would happen 20 minutes in and be central to the very end until the sh*t hits the fan.

The UK want to get to a stage where there is no backstop in place and after that, any need for regulation will be driven by the EU and the UK will tell them that they can set it up and pay for it and any violence or difficulties after that will be the EU's problem to fix.

The major Brexiteers now just want the 29th of March to happen. After that, they're out and any problems will be down to those in government who should have negotiated better or implemented it better going forward.

They expect to live out the end of their life in a sovereign state where they can bask in the adulation of having cut the chains that the EU had around them while they themselves are sufficiently protected so that any hardship will not affect them significantly.

Igotadose

I do like how Gisela Stewart is saying, (paraphrasing) "If we make a dog's breakfast of this, all we politicians will look terrible and get kicked from government, which is bad for democracy."

Uh, no. It's actually really good for democracy. If you suck as someone paid to represent us and we vote you out, well, good. It's because you suck.

Haven't gotten far into this audiocast, maybe 11 minutes. Going to do something useful instead, the panelists are all clueless and tone deaf. If there were a malfeasance charge for complete ineptness as a cabinet officer. David Davis should be so charged. A *cabinet officer* in charge of Brexit making such a shambles of it.

trellheim

Dont mistake David Davis for a fool, he negotiated Maastricht for Major

Angry bird

The EU is punishing us line will be trotted out ad nauseum. Should joe bloggs realise that this is a lie, and there's no guarantee that this will happen, then there'll be hell to pay. I don't foresee Brexit as being this big shock, rather over time things disimprove as costs increase and standards decrease.