Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Mr.Nice Guy · 05-11-2018 3:12am

To paraphrase Edward Carson, we do not want sentence of death with a stay of execution for three months.

I suspect Raab is plotting his own exit strategy. Like his predecessor David Davis he is a true believer Brexiteer with lofty ambitions and he can't preside over a deal that will be roundly slated by his friends and supporters.

I suspect he knows his 3 month backstop can't be carried and he's using it as a pretext to resign. He's following the path of Johnson and Davis and wants his part in the betrayal myth fiction that is about to be unleashed upon the UK.

Tell me how · 05-11-2018 3:20am

Strazdas wrote:

Problem here is what "London" wants may not be what the hard Brexiteers want.

It definitely isn't. Expect the ERG and 1920 group to kick up.
May might rely on (and get) Labour support to get it over the line.

You'd have to say fair play to her if she did that.

Does this mean she's discounting one of her red lines?

Enzokk · 05-11-2018 3:56am

Tell me how wrote: »

It definitely isn't. Expect the ERG and 1920 group to kick up.
May might rely on (and get) Labour support to get it over the line.

You'd have to say fair play to her if she did that.

Does this mean she's discounting one of her red lines?

But if she needs Labour help to get this through they are themselves preparing to fire the gun aimed at their own foot. If she gets this through she is in charge until the next scheduled election in 2022 and Labour will have to sit and wait until then. By that time Brexit may not be that bad as they will not really be leaving and the economic impact will not be that severe and the press can focus once again on how weird Jeremy Corbyn as PM will be instead of how useless May is.

Labour has a chance, but they will be gambling with no-deal and we could be severely hurt as well.

RobMc59 · 05-11-2018 8:52am

All these theories will be academic if the rising tide of influential voices for a 2nd vote in the UK are listened to.And people like Davis,Johnson and Farage should be brought to justice.

Tell me how · 05-11-2018 8:57am

Enzokk wrote:

But if she needs Labour help to get this through they are themselves preparing to fire the gun aimed at their own foot. If she gets this through she is in charge until the next scheduled election in 2022 and Labour will have to sit and wait until then. By that time Brexit may not be that bad as they will not really be leaving and the economic impact will not be that severe and the press can focus once again on how weird Jeremy Corbyn as PM will be instead of how useless May is.

There are those in Labour who either want Brexit themselves, or are afraid of facing their constituents if they don't support the democratic vote to leave (leaving Aaron Banks and such aside).

There are certainly as many pro-Brexit labour MP's as there are DUP MP's. Question is, are there enough to counter Tory rebels.

(I'm convinced Corbyn is like a back up quarter back on the sidelines of an NFL game. He's wearing the kit, he has the shoe polish under his eyes. He says he's ready to go, but every time the starter goes down injured, he's the one praying hardest that he gets up.)

Capt'n Midnight · 05-11-2018 9:13am

Rhineshark wrote: »

Channel 4 taking over from BBC as reliable news source is a strange sign of the times. Banks' behaviour towards the reporter was just bratty. Same sort of sleazy insoucience that made Martin Skhreli so dislikeable and made his downfall so totally unmourned.

No it's not. Channel 4 News has always been ITN's "news for grown ups" compared to how dumbed down the rest of their news has been, it's like BBC and Newsnight.

Sky overtaking the BBC , now that's strange.

Peregrinus · 05-11-2018 9:40am

Tell me how wrote: »

There are those in Labour who either want Brexit themselves, or are afraid of facing their constituents if they don't support the democratic vote to leave (leaving Aaron Banks and such aside).

Less and less. Latest studies suggest that every single Labour MP sits for a constituency where a majority backs a second referendum.

Tell me how wrote: »

There are certainly as many pro-Brexit labour MP's as there are DUP MP's. Question is, are there enough to counter Tory rebels.

The issue is not how may pro-Brexit Labour MPs there are; it's how many Labour MPs would vote for May's Brexit.

This is quite a different question. Extreme pro-Brexit Labour MPs - e.g. Kate Hoey - might vote against May's Brexit because they don't think it's brexity enough. Conversely, anti-Brexit Labour MPs might vote for May's Brexit if they were persuaded that the likely alternative was a no-deal Brexit.

The key question here is whether Labour will whip its members to vote against May's brexit. You'd expect so, given that May's brexit will not meet Labour's six tests. (No Brexit will.) But is it possible that Labour leadership will not want to risk (a) being blamed for no-deal Brexit and/or (b) triggering chaos which may lead to no Brexit at all, and will seek to avoid this by allowing members a free vote?

Water John · 05-11-2018 9:42am

Raab floats the 3 month idea to Coveney. Coveney then gets on the phone to his old acquaintance, from NI days, Brokenshire and says in a polite manner, WTF is Raab on about?

Raab playing a silly card that nobody will buy.

Kermit.de.frog · 05-11-2018 9:42am

So the Cove has tweeted

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1059349074183372800

Water John · 05-11-2018 9:45am

So Raab is going into a Cabinet meeting with a proposal that everybody knows is a dead duck.

prawnsambo · 05-11-2018 9:49am

Water John wrote: »

So Raab is going into a Cabinet meeting with a proposal that everybody knows is a dead duck.

If you were of a cynical bent, you'd wonder if all this is designed to stymie agreement and run down the clock so that a hard brexit is inevitable. There always seems to be a handy spanner (pun intended) lying around to be thrown into the works.

Tell me how · 05-11-2018 9:50am

Peregrinus wrote:

This is quite a different question. Extreme pro-Brexit Labour MPs - e.g. Kate Hoey - might vote against May's Brexit because they don't think it's brexity enough. Conversely, anti-Brexit Labour MPs might vote for May's Brexit if they were persuaded that the likely alternative was a no-deal Brexit.

Given the timeframe with respect to 29th March, I'd think they'd be more likely to vote for it than to try to have a GE and negotiate a Jeremy Brexit.

(Those that are that way inclined of course as per previous post).

Water John · 05-11-2018 9:53am

At this point I don't see TM pulling LB votes to get it through the HoC. There not going to buy into bad deal or no deal.

Hurrache · 05-11-2018 9:57am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Sky overtaking the BBC , now that's strange.

Yeah, I never thought I'd see the day I'd watch Sky News for analysis and reporting over BBC. Like you said thought, I've always had regard for Channel 4 News.

Tell me how · 05-11-2018 10:36am

Hurrache wrote: »

Yeah, I never thought I'd see the day I'd watch Sky News for analysis and reporting over BBC. Like you said thought, I've always had regard for Channel 4 News.

I'm still sceptical of Sky. They had Kate Andrews on their newspaper review soon after Brexit withdrawal date was announced. She was saying that the border could be sorted with no trouble and little technology. Many have said that but she in particular sounded like she had no clue what she was talking about.

The presenter took her words as fact.

Kermit.de.frog · 05-11-2018 10:36am

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1059372609152970752

Deputy negotiator retweeted Coveney.

trellheim · 05-11-2018 10:39am

Sabine is probably the scariest one there. She does not often tweet but when she does !

OK so some of this is for public consumption and 'rabble-rabble'. Tomorrow's cabinet and wednesday's PMQs will tell a lot

BTW I cannot see a deal that will fly in parliament yet unless its backs-to-wall gun at head

A Dub in Glasgo · 05-11-2018 10:41am

For those interested in the Banks story, there has been a lot of work done by Irish journalist living in Scotland Peter Geoghegan as part of Open Democracy

https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1059107239565426688

https://twitter.com/PeterKGeoghegan/status/1059363583736401920

Zubeneschamali · 05-11-2018 10:44am

prawnsambo wrote: »

If you were of a cynical bent, you'd wonder if all this is designed to stymie agreement and run down the clock so that a hard brexit is inevitable.

No. Running the clock down will not get the ERG a hard Brexit, it will get them a no-deal crashout Brexit. While some of them have made some very unconvincing noises to the effect that they are OK with that, they really aren't.

So running down the clock simply makes whatever deal May presents more attractive.

It is possible that Raab is taking this opportunity to resign over his silly 3-month backstop idea, so that he can join Johnson, Gove, Davis & co. on the backbenches complaining about May's deal. Hurling from the ditch is more the ERG's style than leading from the front.

Zubeneschamali · 05-11-2018 10:49am

trellheim wrote: »

BTW I cannot see a deal that will fly in parliament yet unless its backs-to-wall gun at head

If May can't present a deal this week after talking to the cabinet, expect the EU to talk tough and say no to the November summit. Then we'll have another month af phoney negotiations, and the UK will cave in time for an emergency pre-Christmas summit when it'll be Deal or Mad Max.

Water John · 05-11-2018 10:52am

A summit is due in Dec anyway, TMK. That will be showdown time if it isn't resolved before that.

ArmaniJeanss · 05-11-2018 10:53am

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It is possible that Raab is taking this opportunity to resign over his silly 3-month backstop idea, so that he can join Johnson, Gove, Davis & co. on the backbenches complaining about May's deal. Hurling from the ditch is more the ERG's style than leading from the front.

Michael Gove is not a backbencher, he's actually still in the Cabinet believe it or not.
Though he's become the quiet one who says nothing and hides behind the big boys in photographs.

Zubeneschamali · 05-11-2018 11:01am

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Michael Gove is not a backbencher, he's actually still in the Cabinet believe it or not.

Wow! Per wikipedia: He became Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in the cabinet reshuffle on 11 June 2017.

So he'll be in charge of ensuring "adequate" food supplies after brexit?

Enzokk · 05-11-2018 11:54am

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Wow! Per wikipedia: He became Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in the cabinet reshuffle on 11 June 2017.

So he'll be in charge of ensuring "adequate" food supplies after brexit?

He has actually said all the right things as SoS where he has pledged to protect food standards and help farmers, yet he was front and center during the Brexit campaign so I feel that he is playing a game right now. I cannot see such a prominent Brexiteer not doing everything when it is needed to ensure a successful Brexit and the test is still to come.

Let's not forget that Theresa May seemed very reasonable in her first speech as PM about how she will be for the many and not the few, yet everything since then has been just about the opposite of that. Gove may just be the Baelish of the current government waiting for chaos to reign to climb the ladder.

charlie14 · 05-11-2018 12:05pm

I really do not see how this speculation of a customs union covering the UK and NI would somehow solve the problem unless there is some movement by either the EU or the UK on the backstop.
I cannot see May getting any deal through the HoC that does not specify a time limit on leaving the CU and what the position of NI would be if or when that time came.
Rabb`s three month`s statement, while being off the wall, may simply be a shot across the bows to highlight that.

Water John · 05-11-2018 12:06pm

Both Yvette Cooper yesterday and Dominic Grieve today saying they won't support a bad deal over a no deal. TM whistling in the wind.

Channel 4 Poll shows 43 to 37% in favour of a 2nd Ref on the negotiated Deal v Staying in the EU.

EKRIUQ · 05-11-2018 12:45pm

Water John wrote: »

Both Yvette Cooper yesterday and Dominic Grieve today saying they won't support a bad deal over a no deal. TM whistling in the wind.

Channel 4 Poll shows 43 to 37% in favour of a 2nd Ref on the negotiated Deal v Staying in the EU.

Yvette cooper is a Labour MP who chairs the home affairs committee, I'm sure Teresa isn't too worried about her opinion and anytime I've seen her speak she has being tearing apart the current position of the government.

Leroy42 · 05-11-2018 12:46pm

charlie14 wrote: »

I really do not see how this speculation of a customs union covering the UK and NI would somehow solve the problem unless there is some movement by either the EU or the UK on the backstop.
I cannot see May getting any deal through the HoC that does not specify a time limit on leaving the CU and what the position of NI would be if or when that time came.
Rabb`s three month`s statement, while being off the wall, may simply be a shot across the bows to highlight that.

So is the supposed deal that the UK would stay in the CU for a period of time to be decided by themselves and that NI would also stay in the CU on the same basis except that should the UK decided to leave the CU then NI would, under the backstop, have to remain within the CU?

So the UK would immediately (29th March) leave the SM, but for whatever time period NI remain within the SM. Doesn't that require customs checks in the Irish Sea?

Tell me how · 05-11-2018 12:51pm

Water John wrote: »

Channel 4 Poll shows 43 to 37% in favour of a 2nd Ref on the negotiated Deal v Staying in the EU.

I think Brexit is ridiculous, ill contrived and motivated by selfishness, but, if it comes about to a referendum on a negotiated deal versus staying in the EU then I think that is not overly a positive thing either.
Like it or not, it will be used by leavers to say that democracy was railroaded and also that this is not the best deal which could have been negotiated. They will claim that all suggestions of negative impact were just scaremongering. This would be fuel to eurosceptics rhetoric against the union.

Better to leave and then have a referendum to rejoin ASAP in my view. Even though that too will look ridiculous and the impact on Ireland will still be significant as well.

Enzokk · 05-11-2018 12:51pm

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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