Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm struggling to understand how that's somehow a bad thing for us? This was always on offer and would be very good for us. Would keep the landbridge open for a start.

The UK signed up to TIR back in 1949 convention so it's been landbridge without customs inspections for through traffic since ages.

Mc Love

Anyone else watching Channel 4? There's a special on Brexit at the moment

RobertKK

The UK has the problem it once had an empire, it no longer does, it still has people with enough influence who think they do or can have again.

The only show in Europe is the EU, it is where the power is in Europe. The EU knows what it wants, the UK near 2 and half years later has not come to an agreed position, and it looks like remaining that way.

Channel 4 is really good right now.

charlie14

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

No deal looking ever more likely

If there is nothing more to this story than this UK plus NI CU suggestion then bar a complete capitulation on the backstop by the UK (and even if May did so, I cannot see her getting it passed by the HoC`s) then It is looking inevitable.

Enzokk

brickster69 wrote: »

Probably the UK ( forget Raab ) are concerned that if nothing happens with trade talks then the UK could be tied into the CU without the ability to leave full stop. This will not happen legally, so the EU has to ( shall ) negotiate and conclude the withdrawal agreement. They cannot abandon it , they are bound by it's own rules.

A lot of people has responded to this before but you keep posting about it. You can only negotiate with a willing partner. If the UK is not a willing partner then the EU is under no obligation to conclude a deal that is not in their interests if the other party is not willing to negotiate in good faith. Brexit is complicated because of the GFA which makes it almost impossible to deliver on Brexit. This should have been known beforehand. It is not Ireland or the EU's fault that they cannot deliver on Brexit due to their international commitments.

So in short, the EU is negotiating, it is the UK that is not coming up with suitable solutions to their own mess.

Leroy42 wrote: »

How is that even possible at this stage? How can the UK be so completely clueless that they don't even seem to understand the ramifications of their own proposals?

They just seem to be trying to make up new ways to say stuff.

Brexit in a nutshell, isn't it. They are in no way prepared or know of the consequences of what they have agreed or are promising the voters. A shambles is a polite way to describe it.

charlie14 wrote: »

It would if NI remains in the SM.
This new suggestion seems to only be the UK, NI included, staying in the CU only.

No, it is that the UK will join NI in the CU because the DUP doesn't want their to be a difference between NI and the UK. The backstop will still be there as confirmed by Varadkar and Coveney today. Nothing has changed in that regard from our side, the all UK CU is new but it doesn't remove the need for the backstop which means a NI specific solution to keep the border open.

prawnsambo

charlie14 wrote: »

I`m not that sure it would be as simple as that, or that the EU would even agree to a partial SM for NI.

The SM rules guarantee the free movement of goods, services, capital and people. It also requires annual payment towards the EU budget as well as accepting the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

A lot of sticky points there for both the EU and the UK now and very possibly in the future for the EU to grant a partial SM to NI without some border controls.

Most trade agreements with the EU involve a certain amount od SM rules. That's how goods transit the EU freely after import. It's not that difficult. NI in the SM, UK just have to align on goods travelling to NI.

Rhineshark

Spook_ie wrote: »

Now think UK, why would they put themselves in the same position of trusting the EU?

Oh, the UK wont trust the EU because they expect us to act like the UK would. But they have no actual reason for their level of mistrust, all the bad dealing has been by the UK so far.

prawnsambo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The UK signed up to TIR back in 1949 convention so it's been landbridge without customs inspections for through traffic since ages.

Yes. But not if the UK is outside the CU. Then you have delays. In theory you can have TIR lanes, but the infrastructure is pretty basic at Dover and Calais right now. Hence the re-alignment of the North Sea Med corridor.

charlie14

RobertKK wrote: »

The UK has the problem it once had an empire, it no longer does, it still has people with enough influence who think they do or can have again.

The only show in Europe is the EU, it is where the power is in Europe. The EU knows what it wants, the UK near 2 and half years later has not come to an agreed position, and it looks like remaining that way.

Channel 4 is really good right now.

Agree, but for the EU, and us especially, to get what we want, then I`m very much afraid those in the UK with that influence will put the kybosh on that.


Channel 4 as I`ve said here before is the only UK TV news coverage I pass any remarks to anymore. They get to the nub of the problem and attempt to give unbiased coverage imho.

Rhineshark

For written press, I would still mostly trust the z
Guardian. Sure, you know their position on the whole thing but they do stick to facts, bar in clearly labelled opinion pieces.

I've had a couple of moments of "hm, not sure that is correct", but no "that is a bloody lie".

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

Most trade agreements with the EU involve a certain amount od SM rules. That's how goods transit the EU freely after import. It's not that difficult. NI in the SM, UK just have to align on goods travelling to NI.

Goods entering a SM area from another, even one in the CU would still require customs checks. Same with NI in the SM and the rest of the UK being in the CU.
You still have the four pillars of the SM, annual payments towards the EU budget plus the jurisdiction of the ECJ.

I cannot see the EU agreeing to leave all those in some sort of limbo with a partial SM for NI.

Frank Bullitt

Watching Aaron Banks on the defensive...oh my.

Enjoy.

RobertKK

Men over 75 the C4 poll found most likely to vote for Brexit. The empire mentality generation.

charlie14

Rhineshark wrote: »

For written press, I would still mostly trust the z
Guardian. Sure, you know their position on the whole thing but they do stick to facts, bar in clearly labelled opinion pieces.

I've had a couple of moments of "hm, not sure that is correct", but no "that is a bloody lie".

I would agree on the Guardian, and even if I have often felt the same on opinion pieces I would not knock them on that. Our own press in that regard is often no better.

RobertKK

I feel sorry for the ordinary who know it is going to be bad for them and you can see the worry they have.
The UK really needs another vote to undo this disaster, for themselves and everyone else, it would be the mature thing to do.

charlie14

RobertKK wrote: »

Men over 75 the C4 poll found most likely to vote for Brexit. The empire mentality generation.

There was a well defined pattern to their referendum vote where older voters favoured leave as opposed to younger voters favouring remain.
A second referendum tomorrow and I would not see any change of any significance.

Rhineshark

charlie14 wrote: »

I would agree on the Guardian, and even if I have often felt the same on opinion pieces I would not knock them on that. Our own press in that regard is often no better.

I honestly have no issue with opinion pieces as long as they are marked as such. I'd still object to outright lying in them ofc but as long as it's not an opinion passing itself off as news, that's fine.

RobMc59

Rhineshark wrote: »

Spook_ie wrote: »

Now think UK, why would they put themselves in the same position of trusting the EU?

Oh, the UK wont trust the EU because they expect us to act like the UK would. But they have no actual reason for their level of mistrust, all the bad dealing has been by the UK so far.

charlie14 wrote: »

RobertKK wrote: »

The UK has the problem it once had an empire, it no longer does, it still has people with enough influence who think they do or can have again.

The only show in Europe is the EU, it is where the power is in Europe. The EU knows what it wants, the UK near 2 and half years later has not come to an agreed position, and it looks like remaining that way.

Channel 4 is really good right now.

Agree, but for the EU, and us especially, to get what we want, then I`m very much afraid those in the UK with that influence will put the kybosh on that.


Channel 4 as I`ve said here before is the only UK TV news coverage I pass any remarks to anymore. They get to the nub of the problem and attempt to give unbiased coverage imho.

The latest channel 4 poll suggests a majority of UK people want a 2nd referendum and want to stay in the EU,so that`s good-right?

Mc Love

Over 50% think there'll be no change to their household budget which is crazy

prawnsambo

charlie14 wrote: »

Goods entering a SM area from another, even one in the CU would still require customs checks. Same with NI in the SM and the rest of the UK being in the CU.
You still have the four pillars of the SM, annual payments towards the EU budget plus the jurisdiction of the ECJ.

I cannot see the EU agreeing to leave all those in some sort of limbo with a partial SM for NI.

You're not understanding what I've said. They couldn't even enter the EU if they don't comply with EU standards. That's part of what the SM is about. So once they've entered the EU, they can transit anywhere within the EU. Freely. I'm not talking about customs or tariffs.



NI is in the SM. UK is compliant for all goods that go to NI. UK is also in the CU. So no difference and just spot checks as normal.

Enzokk

charlie14 wrote: »

There was a well defined pattern to their referendum vote where older voters favoured leave as opposed to younger voters favouring remain.
A second referendum tomorrow and I would not see any change of any significance.

I don't know, I am sure you would see a definite movement to get younger people out to vote which will make a difference. Then you see polls like this and surely the evidence points to a Remain victory if we have a new referendum.

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1059538383771451394

charlie14

Mc Love wrote: »

Over 50% think there'll be no change to their household budget which is crazy

Even crazier is that 42% of the UK now believe that emigration has been good for the UK compared to only 25% 5 years ago.
An issue that was one of the main planks of the leave campaign.

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

Both Yvette Cooper yesterday and Dominic Grieve today saying they won't support a bad deal over a no deal. TM whistling in the wind.

Channel 4 Poll shows 43 to 37% in favour of a 2nd Ref on the negotiated Deal v Staying in the EU.

Accepting the deal or Re-opening the negotiations with a view to getting a better deal 39%

Re-opening ?

Doesn't anyone over there understand that if there isn't a deal before the deadline then they are out.

Then they'll have to begin new negotiations as a third country.

Mc Love

Big poll now on channel, should the UK remain in our leave the EU.

Remain 54
Leave 46

Massive amount in Wales changed to remain

charlie14

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't know, I am sure you would see a definite movement to get younger people out to vote which will make a difference. Then you see polls like this and surely the evidence points to a Remain victory if we have a new referendum.

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1059538383771451394

You quite possibly would but not only is there apparently no political stomach for it but the margin would most likely have to be so conclusive that it would not result in serious public disturbance at this stage.
Best I can see is a few years down the road with a hard Brexit there would be a major sea change in attitude with them wanting to rejoin.
No comfort in that for us in the short term but right now it`s the best we can hope for I`m very much afraid

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yes. But not if the UK is outside the CU. Then you have delays. In theory you can have TIR lanes, but the infrastructure is pretty basic at Dover and Calais right now. Hence the re-alignment of the North Sea Med corridor.

It's been pointed out before, TIR traffic could be waved through to reduce queues as could empty trucks heading from UK to EU.

Unaccompanied trailers cut down on driver checks too.


Irish drivers can go anywhere.

It's still unclear what the position will be for UK drivers and EU drivers on the the other side of the channel. How many EU drivers have UK right to remain ?

I've also posted about supermarkets reckoning there might not be space on aircraft so it could get very interesting.

charlie14

Mc Love wrote: »

Big poll now on channel, should the UK remain in our leave the EU.

Remain 54
Leave 46

Massive amount in Wales changed to remain

Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain so I would not see Wales making any difference unless large swathes of England swing remain.
Problem again is that in that poll again only 48% of young voters would actually vote.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1059548720352710656

Only a 2% increase in the remain vote in NI is a surprise.

RobertKK

charlie14 wrote: »

Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain so I would not see Wales making any difference unless large swathes of England swing remain.
Problem again is that in that poll again only 48% of young voters would actually vote.

England would go remain too.

charlie14

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1059548720352710656

Only a 2% increase in the remain vote in NI is a surprise.

Not to me. The 2% I would put down to the + or - margin of error.
Same vote to leave for the same reason.

Unionists one and only concern even if the house was burning down around them is their blessed union.