Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

charlie14

RobertKK wrote: »

England would go remain too.

There is always a margin of at least 3% + or - error with these polls including a lumping in of the "don`t knows".

But either way we are not going to know either way if a 2nd referendum would make a difference. Not only is there no political will for another, there isn`t time for one before the 29th March.

RobMc59

charlie14 wrote: »

Mc Love wrote: »

Big poll now on channel, should the UK remain in our leave the EU.

Remain 54
Leave 46

Massive amount in Wales changed to remain

Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain so I would not see Wales making any difference unless large swathes of England swing remain.
Problem again is that in that poll again only 48% of young voters would actually vote.

This is very confusing!-Earlier Channel 4 was the shining light of truth in  brexit ,with their honest,unbiased reporting -now their information is  being doubted -it`s not just the UK who need to make their minds up!

Enzokk

charlie14 wrote: »

There is always a margin of at least 3% + or - error with these polls including a lumping in of the "don`t knows".

But either way we are not going to know either way if a 2nd referendum would make a difference. Not only is there no political will for another, there isn`t time for one before the 29th March.

You seem to be trying very hard to convince us that this wouldn't happen. First it was that the result wouldn't change, then when polls were shown to you that in fact it seems that people are changing their minds now it is about the time. We know it is unlikely, but that is not to say that it shouldn't be fought for because it would be the most sensible course of action. The UK will benefit, we will benefit and the EU will benefit. The political will changes direction according to the polls and it is moving in the right direction if you are looking for the sensible solution.

Shelga

I think Brexit is a monumentally stupid decision, but a second referendum, where remaining in the EU is an option, is not going to be decisive enough in any case to settle this for a generation. Brexit is a symptom, not the disease. I think they have to go through with it and feel the pain, as others have said. My worry is that they will still be blaming the EU for all of their woes, even after they’ve left.

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

You're not understanding what I've said. They couldn't even enter the EU if they don't comply with EU standards. That's part of what the SM is about. So once they've entered the EU, they can transit anywhere within the EU. Freely. I'm not talking about customs or tariffs.



NI is in the SM. UK is compliant for all goods that go to NI. UK is also in the CU. So no difference and just spot checks as normal.

So who is going to determine that all goods that go to NI from the UK are compliant without custom checks ?
Being in the CU union would not negate the need for checks, i.e a border in some form for goods entering a SM area from a CU area.

It still does not sort the issue of the four pillars of the SM where NI is concerned or the jurisdiction of the ECJ covering a whole array of goods, services, workers rights etc.

LuckyLloyd

Gintonious wrote: »

Watching Aaron Banks on the defensive...oh my.

Enjoy.

I wouldn't be the biggest fan of Andrew Marr but he refused to let go there.

Tell me how

Shelga wrote:

I think Brexit is a monumentally stupid decision, but a second referendum, where remaining in the EU is an option, is not going to be decisive enough in any case to settle this for a generation. Brexit is a symptom, not the disease. I think they have to go through with it and feel the pain, as others have said. My worry is that they will still be blaming the EU for all of their woes, even after they’ve left.

Exactly.

Democracy nearly needs it to happen and then overcome or else it's just constant posturing.

And I say that as someone who thinks Brexit itself is a bad decision for everyone involved.

But it is a bed that was made so to speak. They need to lie in it.

charlie14

RobMc59 wrote: »

This is very confusing!-Earlier Channel 4 was the shining light of truth in brexit ,with their honest,unbiased reporting -now their information is being doubted -it`s not just the UK who need to make their minds up!

I`m not doubting Channel 4`s honesty. Just pointing out that like ever poll there are margins of errors which should be taken into account.


On those figures even ignoring that, can you honestly see any political capital being spent on looking for another referendum by Labour ?
Especially when you consider they couldn`t even make their minds up as a party on the first one.

Shelga

Tell me how wrote: »

Exactly.

Democracy nearly needs it to happen and then overcome or else it's just constant posturing.

And I say that as someone who thinks Brexit itself is a bad decision for everyone involved.

But it is a bed that was made so to speak. They need to lie in it.

I agree. Even if they had a second referendum and it was now 52% for Remain, how could anyone celebrate that as a true victory and consider the issue truly settled. Brexiters would be (rightly?) furious. I don’t think they like being told that it’s simply not possible to have the type of dream exit that they want, where they get all of the good and none of the bad.

charlie14

Enzokk wrote: »

You seem to be trying very hard to convince us that this wouldn't happen. First it was that the result wouldn't change, then when polls were shown to you that in fact it seems that people are changing their minds now it is about the time. We know it is unlikely, but that is not to say that it shouldn't be fought for because it would be the most sensible course of action. The UK will benefit, we will benefit and the EU will benefit. The political will changes direction according to the polls and it is moving in the right direction if you are looking for the sensible solution.

Lads/Lassies will ye have a bit of sense.
Where can you see the push coming from for a 2nd referendum at this stage based on those figures?
Labour ?

Those figures are good in that it may soften the cough of May`s government when it comes to a hard or soft Brexit, but a second referendum is wishful thinking this late in the game imo.

RobMc59

Enzokk wrote: »

charlie14 wrote: »

There is always a margin of at least 3% + or - error with these polls including a lumping in of the "don`t knows".

But either way we are not going to know either way if a 2nd referendum would make a difference. Not only is there no political will for another, there isn`t time for one before the 29th March.

You seem to be trying very hard to convince us that this wouldn't happen. First it was that the result wouldn't change, then when polls were shown to you that in fact it seems that people are changing their minds now it is about the time. We know it is unlikely, but that is not to say that it shouldn't be fought for because it would be the most sensible course of action. The UK will benefit, we will benefit and the EU will benefit. The political will changes direction according to the polls and it is moving in the right direction if you are looking for the sensible solution.

You are correct-i thought I was imaging it but there seems to be an undercurrent of opinion that wants the UK out of the EU regardless-a 2nd vote would the last thing they want.

Thargor

Gintonious wrote: »

Watching Aaron Banks on the defensive...oh my.

Enjoy.

He's such a greaseball its unbelievable, doubt theres any serious punishment in his future though.

charlie14

RobMc59 wrote: »

You are correct-i thought I was imaging it but there seems to be an undercurrent of opinion that wants the UK out of the EU regardless-a 2nd vote would the last thing they want.

You may not realise it but I have pointed out that I am from a RoI county bordering NI and that I favour a 32 county Ireland so I am the last person in the world that wants to see the UK out of the the EU due to the knock on effect it will cause, not just for this country, but for my own county.


That doesn`t mean that when people talk about a 2nd referendum as the salvation I do not look on it as just wishful thinking for many reasons. Not just based on the results of that poll.

prawnsambo

charlie14 wrote: »

You may not realise it but I have pointed out that I am from a RoI county bordering NI and that I favour a 32 county Ireland so I am the last person in the world that wants to see the UK out of the the EU due to the knock on effect it will cause, not just for this country, but for my own county.

That doesn`t mean that when people talk about a 2nd referendum as the salvation I do not look on it as just wishful thinking for many reasons. Not just based on the results of that poll.

I doubt very much if there will be a 2nd referendum. It would be far too messy and time consuming. Much more likely (in the case of them wanting to back out) that the PM withdraws A50. Any PM.

RobMc59

charlie14 wrote: »

RobMc59 wrote: »

You are correct-i thought I was imaging it but there seems to be an undercurrent of opinion that wants the UK out of the EU regardless-a 2nd vote would the last thing they want.

You may not realise it but I have pointed out that I am from a RoI county bordering NI and that I favour a 32 county Ireland so I am the last person in the world that wants to see the UK out of the the EU due to the knock on effect it will cause, not just for this country, but for my own county.


That doesn`t mean that when people talk about a 2nd referendum as the salvation I do not look on it as just wishful thinking for many reasons. Not just based on the results of that poll.

I respect and agree with your wish for a UI but it's more likely to happen if the UK remains in the EU imo.
I voted to remain and am truly gutted about brexit-I'm British,of Irish descent with an Irish wife from co.louth so know the uncertainty brexit is causing in Ireland.

zapitastas

charlie14 wrote: »

You may not realise it but I have pointed out that I am from a RoI county bordering NI and that I favour a 32 county Ireland so I am the last person in the world that wants to see the UK out of the the EU due to the knock on effect it will cause, not just for this country, but for my own county.


That doesn`t mean that when people talk about a 2nd referendum as the salvation I do not look on it as just wishful thinking for many reasons. Not just based on the results of that poll.

The quickest route to a UI would probably be a messy and rough brexit that hammers the economy of the North and sees large EU intervention to offset some of the damage to the rest of the island. That would surely see a movement of those holding the middle ground towards the possibility of a UI

Tell me how

zapitastas wrote:

The quickest route to a UI would probably be a messy and rough brexit that hammers the economy of the North and sees large EU intervention to offset some of the damage to the rest of the island. That would surely see a movement of those holding the middle ground towards the possibility of a UI

We're a bit away yet from a UI I think.
It needs to show a capacity to function without massive government subsidy funding.

A UI referendum night not be viewed too positively in Ireland if health/housing/economy status are an issue.

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

I doubt very much if there will be a 2nd referendum. It would be far too messy and time consuming. Much more likely (in the case of them wanting to back out) that the PM withdraws A50. Any PM.

Hopefully they will withdraw A50.
If they did it would be sweet irony that with all the time wasting they have caused with not being able to win an argument with themselves, that we would be the member convincing the other 25 to take them back as the others must be thoroughly sick and tired off them at this stage

Imreoir2

Shelga wrote: »

I think Brexit is a monumentally stupid decision, but a second referendum, where remaining in the EU is an option, is not going to be decisive enough in any case to settle this for a generation. Brexit is a symptom, not the disease. I think they have to go through with it and feel the pain, as others have said. My worry is that they will still be blaming the EU for all of their woes, even after they’ve left.

Of course they will blame everything on the EU after they leave. Just look at Trump blaiming all of Americas economic ills on NAFTA, nothing would be easier than to blame the EU regardless of the deal eventually reached. They are not going to change the habit of a half centuary.

blackcard

Am I right in saying that 70% of Labour supporters in the C4 poll were in favour of remaining? Surely Corbyn should be taking a lead from them.

blackcard

Am I right in saying that 70% of Labour supporters in the C4 poll were in favour of remaining? Surely Corbyn should be taking a lead from them.

charlie14

RobMc59 wrote: »

I respect and agree with your wish for a UI but it's more likely to happen if the UK remains in the EU imo.
I voted to remain and am truly gutted about brexit-I'm British,of Irish descent with an Irish wife from co.louth so know the uncertainty brexit is causing in Ireland.

There are a number of ways it could see it happening. UK remaining within the CU and SM then a future possibility under the GFA. Ni remaining with the CU and SM equally so.
The UK crashing out with no deal then the whole GFA and a border poll would be out the window so the worst possible scenario.

charlie14

zapitastas wrote: »

The quickest route to a UI would probably be a messy and rough brexit that hammers the economy of the North and sees large EU intervention to offset some of the damage to the rest of the island. That would surely see a movement of those holding the middle ground towards the possibility of a UI

Not being rude here, but I would be with Tell me how`s post on this.

Tell me how

Watching BBC News.

1st 8 topics

Knife crime in London
American sanctions on Iran
Government funding for public services in Langley
Man jailed for murder
Michelin factory closing in Dundee
American mid terms
Grenfell effigy burnt by gurriers
Other main stories...

Brexit? What's that?

WomanSkirtFan8

Tell me how wrote: »

We're a bit away yet from a UI I think.
It needs to show a capacity to function without massive government subsidy funding.

A UI referendum night not be viewed too positively in Ireland if health/housing/economy status are an issue.

If an UI were to happen, it would have to be done extremely carefully so as not to alienate the loyalist/unionist community or anyone else for that matter. We've already seen where alienation, particularly in the case of NI, were that can lead to historically so let's be extremely careful here.

I would also agree that housing (Especially) and health are far more important issues at the present time.:cool:

charlie14

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

If an UI were to happen, it would have to be done extremely carefully so as not to alienate the loyalist/unionist community or anyone else for that matter. We've already seen where alienation, particularly in the case of NI, were that can lead to historically so let's be extremely careful here.

I would also agree that housing (Especially) and health are far more important issues at the present time.:cool:

I would hope there is nobody, in at least ireland, that does not recognise that as regards NI.
That more or less was the basis of the GFA, but if there was a hard Brexit then for all intents and purposes the GFA would be dead. Not only would it be just simply dead, but being so could be the catalyst for serious trouble in that the nationalist would (and imo rightly) viewing the DUP as using Brexit to kill it.

J Mysterio

Ian Dunt on Sky Press Preview

Tell me how

J Mysterio wrote:

Ian Dunt on Sky Press Preview

The lady guest just called Leo the Irish President........

Tell me how

Tell me how wrote:

The lady guest just called Leo the Irish President........

And now that EU operates by using fudging language.

charlie14

Tell me how wrote: »

The lady guest just called Leo the Irish President........

Not an easy thing to do when you consider the two of them, with no disrespect intended to either gentleman.