Will Micheál Martin ever be Taoiseach?

shenanagans

Itssoeasy wrote: »

No I don't think so. And he'd be the first FF leader to not be Taoiseach which will probably hurt a bit. I'm sure when he joined FF it was a case of whoever was leader was more or less guaranteed to be Taoiseach at some point. As others have said he is associated with the Bertie Ahern/ Brian Cowan era and mess that created.

I honestly don't follow the inner workings of FF enough to say who would be the runners and riders in a leadership contest but it would have to be a younger TD who doesn't have the baggage of Michael Martin's era.

I also don't see FF and SF going into coalition as Sinn Fein have said they want to go into government as the major party which is unlikely in the short to medium term, as even though neither FG or FF will get an overall majority next time out(I think those days are gone honestly) they won't fall low enough to be behind SF.

He will be the first FF leader not to be Taoiseach. He should step aside before the next GE. whoever is deputy leader must be the front runner... Is that Dara Calleary?

They should switch roles or better still Mm should let two young people take over as leader and deputy.

MikeyTaylor

shenanagans wrote: »

He will be the first FF leader not to be Taoiseach. He should step aside before the next GE. whoever is deputy leader must be the front runner... Is that Dara Calleary?

They should switch roles or better still Mm should let two young people take over as leader and deputy.

Correct.

blanch152

Itssoeasy wrote: »

No I don't think so. And he'd be the first FF leader to not be Taoiseach which will probably hurt a bit. I'm sure when he joined FF it was a case of whoever was leader was more or less guaranteed to be Taoiseach at some point. As others have said he is associated with the Bertie Ahern/ Brian Cowan era and mess that created.

I honestly don't follow the inner workings of FF enough to say who would be the runners and riders in a leadership contest but it would have to be a younger TD who doesn't have the baggage of Michael Martin's era.

I also don't see FF and SF going into coalition as Sinn Fein have said they want to go into government as the major party which is unlikely in the short to medium term, as even though neither FG or FF will get an overall majority next time out(I think those days are gone honestly) they won't fall low enough to be behind SF.

I think SF dropped the bigger party issue at their last Ard Fheis.

Maybe someone else with better knowledge could confirm that.

shenanagans

blanch152 wrote: »

I think SF dropped the bigger party issue at their last Ard Fheis.

Maybe someone else with better knowledge could confirm that.

There may be a day when FF or FG go into govt with SF but I'd say it's a good ten years down the road. No one wants to partner with them!!

MM has several times stated that FF won't partner with SF. Several times.... and that's recently.

Fann Linn

shenanagans wrote: »

There may be a day when FF or FG go into govt with SF but I'd say it's a good ten years down the road. No one wants to partner with them!!

MM has several times stated that FF won't partner with SF. Several times.... and that's recently.

Many others in FF would go into govt with the Shinners.

shenanagans

Really. Haven't heard any FF's say they'd go in with SF.

SF's policies just don't match up with either FF or FG. It would be totally unstable govt. Can't see it.

blanch152

shenanagans wrote: »

Really. Haven't heard any FF's say they'd go in with SF.

SF's policies just don't match up with either FF or FG. It would be totally unstable govt. Can't see it.

Quite a few of them have spoken on it.


https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/sinn-f%C3%A9in-faces-up-to-political-reality-1.2952521

"Some Fianna Fáil TDs, most notably the former deputy leader Eamon Ó Cuív, favour a coalition with Sinn Féin. If the Dáil arithmetic delivered a majority for the two parties after the next election, the pressure on Mr Martin for a change of direction might grow."

https://ansionnachfionn.com/2012/04/30/eamon-o-cuiv-republican-dissident/

"Éamon Ó Cuív has called for Fianna Fáil to consider coalition with Sinn Féin in a move that would reunite the parties split by his grandfather, Éamon de Valera"


https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/backbench-td-contradicts-micheal-martin-on-sinn-fein-coalition-460652.html

"Backbench Fianna Fáil TD John McGuinness has contradicted his party leader, Micheál Martin, by insisting Fianna Fáil cannot definitively rule out a coalition with Sinn Féin."

shenanagans

Interesting. But still can't see FF/SF govt after next election.

Honestly think anything other than a FF or FG vote is a waste..because we'll end up with the same result. One party needs a majority or close enough to rely on Indep Alliance or Greens (if they get a few seat). No point having a election to see FG being propped up by FF again....and no changes or big decisions being brought in as a result.

Vote for SF or other small parties a waste IMO.

FrancieBrady

We don't really have a Taoiseach at the moment because of this dance FF and FG insist on doing. Would we even notice if they swapped places?

Danzy

[/quote] Fianna Fáil TD John McGuinness has contradicted his party leader, Micheál Martin, by insisting Fianna Fáil cannot definitively rule out a coalition with Sinn Féin."[/quote]

He is leader because others want things to settle down, his own TDs don't respect him.

The is often ignored and can say nothing about it.

shenanagans

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We don't really have a Taoiseach at the moment because of this dance FF and FG insist on doing. Would we even notice if they swapped places?

No we wouldn't notice if one is propping up the other still but if one got a majority or could go in with a few independents then at least more changes could be made.

FrancieBrady

shenanagans wrote: »

No we wouldn't notice if one is propping up the other still but if one got a majority or could go in with a few independents then at least more changes could be made.

The only change will be SF outstripping FF and forcing them closer to FG by the looks of this. Martin has brought them to within one point of SF, he will be under fierce internal pressure.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-poll-44-in-favour-of-general-election-1.3664554?fbclid=IwAR0t3QoS2rvHYvJG2If9RF2Vmmdhsirg5XPDpaeCg0wrdIUrdQdVLJWaWlk

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The only change will be SF outstripping FF and forcing them closer to FG by the looks of this. Martin has brought them to within one point of SF, he will be under fierce internal pressure.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-poll-44-in-favour-of-general-election-1.3664554?fbclid=IwAR0t3QoS2rvHYvJG2If9RF2Vmmdhsirg5XPDpaeCg0wrdIUrdQdVLJWaWlk

That poll supports the idea of a FF/SF coalition.

Edit: 21% undecided, FF still weak in Dublin, SF only on 19% when you include undecided, I think their failure to convert undecided is behind their higher ratings in polls than in elections, but this poll still points to FF/SF, with possibly a rotating Taoiseach

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

That poll supports the idea of a FF/SF coalition.

That or FG FF forming an even unhealthier cocoon around power.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That or FG FF forming an even unhealthier cocoon around power.

Don't think so. Martin wouldn't survive that result, and he is the main block on a SF/FF coalition. Also given the two parties would be roughly equal in size, the risk of being gobbled up would be less.

It would be interesting to see which 7 Departments SF would get.

FF would have to keep Taoiseach first, Finance, Foreign Affairs and Justice and Defence.

You would likely see SF in Education, Social Welfare, Children, Agriculture, Housing, Rural Development etc. They can have high profile fights for money with FF in Finance, and claim what goes wrong isn't their fault.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Don't think so. Martin wouldn't survive that result, and he is the main block on a SF/FF coalition. Also given the two parties would be roughly equal in size, the risk of being gobbled up would be less.

It would be interesting to see which 7 Departments SF would get.

FF would have to keep Taoiseach first, Finance, Foreign Affairs and Justice and Defence.

You would likely see SF in Education, Social Welfare, Children, Agriculture, Housing, Rural Development etc. They can have high profile fights for money with FF in Finance, and claim what goes wrong isn't their fault.

There are as likely to go into power with FG if they decide to go into coalition. Plenty in FG are comfy with their feet under the table now and Leo won't want to be the FG leader to relinquish power at his first election.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There are as likely to go into power with FG if they decide to go into coalition. Plenty in FG are comfy with their feet under the table now and Leo won't want to be the FG leader to relinquish power at his first election.

If Leo is smart, he knows that 2 years of FF/SF would open the way for a big increase in FG support.

shenanagans

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There are as likely to go into power with FG if they decide to go into coalition. Plenty in FG are comfy with their feet under the table now and Leo won't want to be the FG leader to relinquish power at his first election.

Agree. FF won't go in with SF. They'll plummet in the polls.

FrancieBrady

I think FG have hit peak support at this stage tbh.

shenanagans

blanch152 wrote: »

If Leo is smart, he knows that 2 years of FF/SF would open the way for a big increase in FG support.

Leo has always stated he wants out of politics young. I'd say if he loses power he'll leave politics.

I could be remembering wrong...but do I recall him mentioning 40?? He's what 38 now...If he loses at the next election he'll pull out possibly?? Unless he's had a change of heart.

Itssoeasy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think FG have hit peak support at this stage tbh.

Based on what ?

shenanagans

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think FG have hit peak support at this stage tbh.

Agree. Winter ahead....hospital crisis...housing/homeless issues...Brexit...it's all bad news. And there's no quick answers. It's all downhill from here.

FrancieBrady

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Based on what ?

Based on the last number of years.

Itssoeasy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Based on what ?

Based on the last number of years.

Well they aren't going down in opinion polls Francie so unless you know of a drop in the next poll and a decline in support then that doesn't seem to be true.

FrancieBrady

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well they aren't going down in opinion polls Francie so unless you know of a drop in the next poll and a decline in support then that doesn't seem to be true.

I said I 'think they have reached peak support'.

We would require a crystal ball to verify that. It is an opinion, nothing more, but based on their inability to get past these numbers when you would have expected a bounce.

shenanagans

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well they aren't going down in opinion polls Francie so unless you know of a drop in the next poll and a decline in support then that doesn't seem to be true.

Interesting. Listening to the Late Debate on radio at the moment. The general consensus is that FG have peaked. With winter and brexit ahead...the politicians on are fairly in agreement on FG's popularity.

Plus they say 50% of FF supporters (poll results) what MM to pull the plug on the current arrangement.

Tell me how

Itssoeasy wrote:

Based on what ?

The wheel is always turning.
Remember where FG were after GE in 2002. There was serious talk at the time that they might be wiped out.

FF have kept their nose clean over last few years and could well reap the traditional swing that opposition seem to have at election.

Question is, who will they partner with and who will be their big guns. Outside of Martin, McGrath and Dooley, few of them seem to get much airplay.

SF, PBP and AAA will do a lot of the campaigning for FF simply by highlighting housing and healthcare incessantly.

road_high

shenanagans wrote: »

Agree. Winter ahead....hospital crisis...housing/homeless issues...Brexit...it's all bad news. And there's no quick answers. It's all downhill from here.

There’s always bad news and problems- regardless of who is in power.
Voters will decide more on the lines of who they think’ll do the least worst job and be safest with the economy. This is why FG still lead the polls as despite the many problems most don’t see anything better under FF SF and risk being even worse given both parties track records and rhetoric

Rhineshark

road_high wrote: »

There’s always bad news and problems- regardless of who is in power.
Voters will decide more on the lines of who they think’ll do the least worst job and be safest with the economy. This is why FG still lead the polls as despite the many problems most don’t see anything better under FF SF and risk being even worse given both parties track records and rhetoric

Does SF *have* a track record? FF/FG can only agree on keeping SF out.

Mind you, even if a bit dubious of SF, I'm glad to see a third strong party. I am getting less and less trusting of de facto two-party governing systems.

road_high

Rhineshark wrote: »

Does SF *have* a track record? FF/FG can only agree on keeping SF out.

Mind you, even if a bit dubious of SF, I'm glad to see a third strong party. I am getting less and less trusting of de facto two-party governing systems.

Yes on county councils and in the North. And it ain’t rosy