Peter Casey believes Travellers should not be recognised as an ethnic minority

pumpkin4life

gmisk wrote: »

What percentage of the vote would you classify as fine for him?
I honestly don't see him getting much above 6 or 7%

Don't know.

Presidential elections are harder to read because traditionally, people are way more flexible to changing their minds and the variance is higher. Read up on this yourselves. Mary Robinson was far from a shoe in prior to election for example.

People forget that Gallagher was about 10-15% ahead of Mickey D, prior to the frontline envelope incident.

It's weird because all these online polls (the liberal.ie, boards.ie, the limerick reader, politicalirish.com) have him winning the thing out right, and more than a few people I know said they're definitely voting for him.

I think he's going to lose, but he's going to do well.

And it's a good lesson if nothing else. Speak the truth and good shìt happens to you.

gmisk

Idbatterim wrote: »

I havent spoken to one person who isn’t voting for him! The rest are a waste of a vote. I know I’m having a laugh at this, but the results of decades of only morons to vote for and populist spineless morons now. The cost and damage is too high...

As a counterpoint.... I havent talked to anyone who is voting for him.
I think Michael D will get 55% plus, and he would likely be the most transfer friendly I would think.

FrancieBrady

pumpkin4life wrote: »

He has to:

Not pussy out and try to "appeal" to as many people as possible.

Not apologize.

Not try and play to the P.C crowd.

Speak the truth as he sees it.

If he does that, he'll do fine.

If Casey rises dramatically in the polls, he will become a focus. What I see happening is that he'll be forced to double down on his remarks and then we will see his skill as a debater.
And that is where it will get interesting because if he has explain himself more he has to start giving examples of what he means about all travellers being basically people who camp on other peoples land. All travellers with more rights than you or me.
Because the above are false, he faces the prospect of some heavy blows being landed and he is liable to say anything.

Or we will get the pathetic sounding retraction that wasn't a retraction before he had to take the weekend off. If he tries that, again he will take some heavy hits and again he will be liable to say anything. And a hero will show his feet of clay less than a week after achieving that status.

Big night for Peter.

gmisk

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Limerick are more likely to be behind Casey.

I work in retail, and their are 5 people who when I see them coming. My job is to try and reduce how much stock I'm going to loose. But I will certainly lose stock and there is nothing I can do about it. No amount of security can watch groups who split up.

They all live out on Childers Road, and there are many other retailers who suffer when they get visited by these folks

So you have a problem with shoplifters I am sorry to hear that...but what has that got to do with the presidential election? Are you hinting that these are all travellers? ... And Casey winning is going to stop it happening?

_Kaiser_

gmisk wrote: »

Who are the two you consider to be candidates?
If you are saying casey I honestly don't see it.
It would be a shock if he finished second...well to me anyway. Id think Sean Gallagher might scrape it.
Do you have a link to Limerick poll? Thanks

https://www.limerickleader.ie/poll/home/343353/leader-poll-who-are-you-voting-for-in-the-upcoming-presidential-election.html

(hopefully that works.. On mobile at the moment )

I think Gallagher has fallen away as Casey has stolen his thunder in the last week. The rest were never at the races IMO.

It'll be between Casey and MDH with the winner decided by how many bother to turn out on the day, and whether there's any more revelations or slip ups by the latter in the next debate.

FrancieBrady

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

At this point, there are really only 2 candidates remaining

How close the final count will be remains to be seen of course, but if that Limerick newspaper poll posted earlier is anything to go by, it might not be the "sure thing" for MDH that everyone expected even a fortnight ago.

If you were on the Politics Cafe thread you would have seen a number of us managed to vote in that poll numerous times. It is ridiculous to be taking it as an indication of anything. As somebody said it is the type of poll that ends up with BoatyMcBoatface or the Wolfe Tones at No. 1 in the UK charts.

gmisk

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

https://www.limerickleader.ie/poll/home/343353/leader-poll-who-are-you-voting-for-in-the-upcoming-presidential-election.html

(hopefully that works.. On mobile at the moment )

I think Gallagher has fallen away as Casey has stolen his thunder in the last week. The rest were never at the races IMO.

It'll be between Casey and MDH with the winner decided by how many bother to turn out on the day, and whether there's any more revelations or slip ups by the latter in the next debate.

Thanks for that.
What number of people are voting on that I wonder? Weird there are no comments on it.

You could be right about Gallagher alright, seems to have done zero to convince people to vote for him

c.p.w.g.w

gmisk wrote: »

So you have a problem with shoplifters I am sorry to hear that...but what has that got to do with the presidential election? Are you hinting that these are all travellers? ... And Casey winning is going to stop it happening?

It's to do with locals in Limerick being affected by the worst elements of the traveller community more than the people of let's say Galway or Clare. That's why the Limerick Leader poll may be a tad skewed

pumpkin4life

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If Casey rises dramatically in the polls, he will become a focus. What I see happening is that he'll be forced to double down on his remarks and then we will see his skill as a debater.
And that is where it will get interesting because if he has explain himself more he has to start giving examples of what he means about all travellers being basically people who camp on other peoples land. All travellers with more rights than you or me.
Because the above are false, he faces the prospect of some heavy blows being landed and he is liable to say anything.

Or we will get the pathetic sounding retraction that wasn't a retraction before he had to take the weekend off. If he tries that, again he will take some heavy hits and again he will be liable to say anything. And a hero will show his feet of clay less than a week after achieving that status.

Big night for Peter.

If he apologizes, he's fùcked.

If he goes full blown "dem tinkers", he's fùcked.

If he sticks to what he says, and goes after the "scroungers" on the dole in a blunt, punctual way(though Higgins is the ultimate scrounger on the dole), then he'll be be fine.

_Kaiser_

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If you were on the Politics Cafe thread you would have seen a number of managed to vote in that poll numerous times. It is ridiculous to be taking it as an indication of anything. As somebody said it is the type of poll that ends up with BoatyMcBoatface or the Wolfe Tones at No. 1 in the UK charts.

Ah unfortunately I don't frequent the Cafe much these days since the last round of changes.

I take the point you're making, but I dare say that comments on this thread and the threads covering the previous debates, as well as comments on social media are a supporting barometer of the shift to Casey in recent days.

People have had enough of being told what to think and that the Emperor IS wearing clothes... And Casey is a welcome change from that, and that's his primary appeal.

gmisk

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

It's to do with locals in Limerick being affected by the worst elements of the traveller community more than the people of let's say Galway or Clare. That's why the Limerick Leader poll may be a tad skewed

Ah thanks don't know Limerick really so wasn't sure what the Childers Road reference was hinting at.

Jack Moore

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

It's to do with locals in Limerick being affected by the worst elements of the traveller community more than the people of let's say Galway or Clare. That's why the Limerick Leader poll may be a tad skewed

Why ?

MrMusician18

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If you were on the Politics Cafe thread you would have seen a number of us managed to vote in that poll numerous times. It is ridiculous to be taking it as an indication of anything. As somebody said it is the type of poll that ends up with BoatyMcBoatface or the Wolfe Tones at No. 1 in the UK charts.

Francie, I tell hope someone is paying you for your posts on this thread, your putting in a stellar shift.
300+ posts, jeepers

c.p.w.g.w

Jack Moore wrote: »

Why ?

There are a few very dangerous members of the traveller community in Limerick, many of whom only ever come into the city to rob for retailers. There is about of them who are lethal with regards to lifting stock

_Kaiser_

pumpkin4life wrote: »

If he apologizes, he's fùcked.

If he goes full blown "dem tinkers", he's fùcked.

If he sticks to what he says, and goes after the "scroungers" on the dole in a blunt, punctual way(though Higgins is the ultimate scrounger on the dole), then he'll be be fine.

I can't see him apologising.. Not least because he has nothing to apologise for in his (and many others) view.

He's also unlikely to attack the travellers as his whole point on the issue is around genuine equality, not special treatment.

Now he might just have an amazing campaign manager and team behind him, but he certainly comes across as sincere in his beliefs - certainly more so than his fellow candidates who were laughably exposed in the "so would you be happy with a traveller camp next door" question last week.

FrancieBrady

pumpkin4life wrote: »

If he apologizes, he's fùcked.

If he goes full blown "dem tinkers", he's fùcked.

If he sticks to what he says, and goes after the "scroungers" on the dole in a blunt, punctual way(though Higgins is the ultimate scrounger on the dole), then he'll be be fine.

Then he has to back it up, and that is where it will get interesting.

I suspect he will go with the cringe inducing approach he took with Aine Lawlor on the radio.

tayto lover

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If Casey rises dramatically in the polls, he will become a focus. What I see happening is that he'll be forced to double down on his remarks and then we will see his skill as a debater.
And that is where it will get interesting because if he has explain himself more he has to start giving examples of what he means about all travellers being basically people who camp on other peoples land. All travellers with more rights than you or me.
Because the above are false, he faces the prospect of some heavy blows being landed and he is liable to say anything.

Or we will get the pathetic sounding retraction that wasn't a retraction before he had to take the weekend off. If he tries that, again he will take some heavy hits and again he will be liable to say anything. And a hero will show his feet of clay less than a week after achieving that status.

Big night for Peter.

You keep banging that old drum about Casey saying "all travellers" and generalising. I knew what he meant and I feel you did too.
Casey doesn't have to explain anything, we know what he meant and agreed with it. We know it upset the media and the establishment and those who would wish that he didn't draw attention to them.

TOMs WIFE

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If Casey rises dramatically in the polls, he will become a focus. What I see happening is that he'll be forced to double down on his remarks and then we will see his skill as a debater.
And that is where it will get interesting because if he has explain himself more he has to start giving examples of what he means about all travellers being basically people who camp on other peoples land. All travellers with more rights than you or me.

Because the above are false....

Was sort of with you until the last sentence

Richard Hillman

They seem to be very slow on the professionally run Polls. I know the media outlets usually pay the pollsters for their work and this seemed like a very uninteresting race before PCs comments but you'd think after the comments, they would be banging on the pollsters doors for data.

It's as if they don't want to the poll results to increase momentum

FrancieBrady

tayto lover wrote: »

You keep banging that old drum about Casey saying "all travellers" and generalising. I knew what he meant and I feel you did too.
Casey doesn't have to explain anything, we know what he meant and agreed with it. We know it upset the media and the establishment and those who would wish that he didn't draw attention to them.

He will be with the 'media' and the establishment tomorrow night. And he will have to back up what he said regardless of the 'we' who believe him.

I also suspect the other dragons might have picked up something juicy to throw at him over the years, but that is maybe wishful thinking.

tayto lover

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He will be with the 'media' and the establishment tomorrow night. And he will have to back up what he said regardless of the 'we' who believe him.

I also suspect the other dragons might have picked up something juicy to throw at him over the years, but that is maybe wishful thinking.

Won't do the Dragons any good to throw dirt at Casey. It's MDH they all need to target.

_Kaiser_

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Then he has to back it up, and that is where it will get interesting.

I suspect he will go with the cringe inducing approach he took with Aine Lawlor on the radio.

I didn't hear the radio interview you're referring to but it does raise another point.

In the interviews I've heard and seen, he stumbles.. He stutters and he isn't very eloquent most of the time.

But he comes across as genuine and sincere and NOT another career politician who's been endlessly coached and rehearsed in the art of talking lots but saying nothing.

He still manages to get his point and intent across all the same.. And that's also something that people are responding to.

FrancieBrady

TOMs WIFE wrote: »

Was sort of with you until the last sentence

Well I have asked several times what 'actual' extra rights they have that you and I don't have or other settled people on welfare etc don't have. And nobody has been able to tell me. This is what Casey claimed btw.

And the statement that 'travellers are basically people who camp on other people's land' is wholly incorrect too.

pumpkin4life

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I can't see him apologising.. Not least because he has nothing to apologise for in his (and many others) view.

He's also unlikely to attack the travellers as his whole point on the issue is around genuine equality, not special treatment.

Now he might just have an amazing campaign manager and team behind him, but he certainly comes across as sincere in his beliefs - certainly more so than his fellow candidates who were laughably exposed in the "so would you be happy with a traveller camp next door" question last week.

He said he was going to quit the campaign over the weekend.

I don't know if that was for sympathy points, or for the fact that he was getting threats from the Traveler community.

I can honestly tell you from personal experience, that the dark part of the Traveler community (not the majority) , to have them on your back, is scary enough, and the Guards won't touch it.

Why?

All these Traveller lads have to go is "how is your daughter doing at 123 Street Dublin" and the whole thing shuts down. They turn a blind eye and all hell breaks loose.

Casey is either a middle class lad a bit out of his depth, or he's highly fùcking cunning.

Either way, don't, in any shape or form apologize.

Otherwise he really is done.

Fann Linn

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well I have asked several times what 'actual' extra rights they have that you and I don't have or other settled people on welfare etc don't have. And nobody has been able to tell me. This is what Casey claimed btw.

And the statement that 'travellers are basically people who camp on other people's land' is wholly incorrect too.

The right to ask for land aswell as a council house, for starters.

FrancieBrady

tayto lover wrote: »

Won't do the Dragons any good to throw dirt at Casey. It's MDH they all need to target.

The other Dragins know well the game is up. If they had anything on Higgins it would be out by now.
It's finishing second is the trophy now.

FrancieBrady

Fann Linn wrote: »

The right to ask for land aswell as a council house, for starters.

How is that a 'right'?

The family in Tipp entered into negotiations with the LA.

If it was a 'right' they could take the LA to court.

tayto lover

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The other Dragins know well the game is up. If they had anything on Higgins it would be out by now.
It's finishing second is the trophy now.

As I keep telling my U.16 team nobody remembers who was second.
But in this case second would be a kick in the hole to the establishment and it would be attained on the "traveller" factor which needs to be debated.

PS
It was in the last debate in 2011 that Gallagher was targeted with the grenade.

zeebre12

This probably isn't true but do travellers get some kind of grant to get their new vans as it's part of their 'culture'?

_Kaiser_

pumpkin4life wrote: »

He said he was going to quit the campaign over the weekend.

I don't know if that was for sympathy points, or for the fact that he was getting threats from the Traveler community.

I can honestly tell you from personal experience, that the dark part of the Traveler community (not the majority) , to have them on your back, is scary enough, and the Guards won't touch it.

Why?

All these Traveller lads have to go is "how is your daughter doing at 123 Street Dublin" and the whole thing shuts down. They turn a blind eye and all hell breaks loose.

Casey is either a middle class lad a bit out of his depth, or he's highly fùcking cunning.

Either way, don't, in any shape or form apologize.

Otherwise he really is done.

He won't apologise.. He's built his entire campaign in the last few days on sticking by his principles, even if they're unpopular with the established media and political figures.

I think he wasn't prepared for the reality of the race he entered, and the reaction from high profile groups to his own (I think sincere) opinions on the issues put to him - he strikes me as a man who just answers a question directly rather than trying to spin it like say our current Taoiseach.

For that reason I, perhaps innocently, am inclined to believe that he was prepared to quit on Friday night, but went home and the support from his family, friends and the flood of emails he says he received made him reconsider.