So...Ok then...How do we talk about it? (Irish Presidential Election Result)

Loafing Oaf

blanch152 wrote: »

That is two elections in a row where the number of people voting for Sinn Fein has fallen.

Their percentage vote has shown more volatility but the absolute number of people voting for them has decreased.

Luckily, the increased turnout in a general election should help them reverse the absolute number trend at least. However, they will need it to increase.

Liadh Ni Riadha got 93,987 votes in the Presidential election.

AAA-PBP got 84,168 votes in the last general election, and they didn't run in every constituency.

295,319 voted for Sinn Fein in the last general election in 2016, so she only got about 30% of the vote out. They got 323,300 votes in the European Elections in 2014. Those are the hard facts, will be interesting to see where the party goes from here.

I think you're setting way too much store by the presidential election. We have yet to see the impact of the Mary Lou 'bounce' in a meaningful election.

Tell me how

Loafing Oaf wrote:

I think you're setting way too much store by the presidential election. We have yet to see the impact of the Mary Lou 'bounce' in a meaningful election.

Mary Lou was very visibly the party leader for the repeal referendum and the presidential race.
She did significant media coverage around both.

By the time a GE cones around I suspect she will be viewed simply as the party leader and not the 'new' leader.

I think her incoming leader bounce is nearly done.

Loafing Oaf

Tell me how wrote: »

Mary Lou was very visibly the party leader for the repeal referendum and the presidential race.
She did significant media coverage around both.

By the time a GE cones around I suspect she will be viewed simply as the party leader and not the 'new' leader.

I think her incoming leader bounce is nearly done.

Okay bounce is not quite what I mean. I'm saying we don't know yet if the party under her leadership is more attractive on an ongoing basis to middle-class soft-left floating voters than it was under GA.

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I think you're setting way too much store by the presidential election. We have yet to see the impact of the Mary Lou 'bounce' in a meaningful election.

It is a bit like judging FG's performance as a 'party' by the 2011 result for their candidate.

Just doesn't compute in any cogent way. People don't take 'party' policy or allegiance into account at PE time anymore. Has been like that for some time now.

Tell me how

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Okay bounce is not quite what I mean. I'm saying we don't know yet if the party under her leadership is more attractive on an ongoing basis to middle-class soft-left floating voters than it was under GA.

I think irrespective of the leader, views on the party are heavily influenced by the status of the assembly in the North. Hard to fault Martin McGuinness pulling out given what the Arlene was up to but like it or not, it's nearly 2 years without running as it was intended.

If nothing else, that removes the possibility for Sinn Fein to point to examples of good governance carried out by the party which is what most people still want in their elected officials.

James Brown

If the North was going great we'd be hearing how different it is and not comparable. The DUP are a festering entity. They needed to be called out. Donaldson throwing shapes re Brexit today and the rest of Ireland's position. Blowhards. It's a slow painful demise for them but they'll need side up with the likes of Fine Gael come reunification of the country. Likely a ways off but Brexit is the beginning of a push in that direction. I can see the DUP being a Healy-Rae type entity in time.

blanch152

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Okay bounce is not quite what I mean. I'm saying we don't know yet if the party under her leadership is more attractive on an ongoing basis to middle-class soft-left floating voters than it was under GA.

The party had an edge under Gerry Adams that allowed it to attract voters with a protest. They lost the edge by replacing him with Mary-Lou but haven't done enough about the stink around issues such as sex abuse, punishment beatings, smuggling by "good republicans" and hidden cabals in Belfast to be able to attract any of the middle-class soft-left vote.

There are also less of the protesting class now than there was seven or eight years ago.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

If the North was going great we'd be hearing how different it is and not comparable. The DUP are a festering entity. They needed to be called out. Donaldson throwing shapes re Brexit today and the rest of Ireland's position. Blowhards. It's a slow painful demise for them but they'll need side up with the likes of Fine Gael come reunification of the country. Likely a ways off but Brexit is the beginning of a push in that direction. I can see the DUP being a Healy-Rae type entity in time.

If Sinn Fein were a normal party, they would find a way with the Alliance, the UUP, the SDLP and others to put pressure on the DUP as the single festering entity.

The fact that both Sinn Fein and the DUP are festering entities in the context of Northern Ireland stops the place from working.

Loafing Oaf

blanch152 wrote: »

The party had an edge under Gerry Adams that allowed it to attract voters with a protest. They lost the edge by replacing him with Mary-Lou but haven't done enough about the stink around issues such as sex abuse, punishment beatings, smuggling by "good republicans" and hidden cabals in Belfast to be able to attract any of the middle-class soft-left vote.

There are also less of the protesting class now than there was seven or eight years ago.

The leftish middle classes are the real prize for SF now. Vast swathes of erstwhile Lab and FF voters up for grabs. No point trying to 'out-protest' PBP etc. at this stage. For every angry radical vote they would retain through that approach, they'd lose out on two or three middle-class Michael D fans.

James Brown

I've voted SF and never in protest. People are looking for alternatives. They turned a blind eye to the stink of FF/FG corruption and FG not paying tax for 9 years. I can see them doing same, with FG help, for FF regarding the last crash. Should never underestimate the let bygones be bygones of the Irish electorate looking to not vote FG or FF depending on who's turn it is for a jant on the merry-go-round.
The troubles and IRA connections are becoming less and less relevant as time passes. Getting rid of Gerry was a great move toward that. All parties seem to support the plight, or perceived plight of the Traveler community. Funnily enough reports just up on RTE there regarding the massive under spends by LA's, Tipp included, relating to monies allocated specifically to Travelers. Seems they aren't even able to avail of what FG/FF provides them.

"Some local authorities have drawn down almost all the money available, and then some local authorities have a zero draw down rate," she said.

Independent Senator Colette Kelleher told the committee while there had been a recent media focus on Travellers not taking up accommodation, there had not been a focus on the under-spend by local authorities.

"I want to put on the record the under-spending in Tipperary which was the local authority in the eye of the storm. In the last 18 years, they under-spent to the tune of €4.7m," she said.

Several committee members raised the prospect of sanctioning local authorities who do not spend their Traveller accommodation funding by withholding other funding.
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2018/1106/1009076-travellers-housing-committee/

Yeah, so lets all protest vote FF :rolleyes:

26000 Elephants

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Yeah, so lets all protest vote FF :rolleyes:

From the most recent NTACC report I can find:

he key findings of the review of funding for Traveller-specific accommodation found that over the period 2000 to 2016, €356 million was spent on providing 6,394 Traveller-specific homes, an average of 376 homes per year. This was below the targets set, which if achieved would have seen an average of 494 Traveller-specific homes provided per annum. In all but one TAP period, spending was below the budget allocation. The summary details are provided in appendix 2 of the submission to the committee. The review found that local authorities are regularly refurbishing properties under the TAPs. In fact, the share of the funding consumed by refurbishments and maintenance of the existing stock is higher in more recent TAP periods compared with the earlier programmes. The reported level of demolition of properties that are in the region of 12 to 16 years old suggests a significant rate of deterioration of homes. Local authority staff consulted as part of the review suggested that the growing need for repairs on existing Traveller-specific housing was slowing the delivery of new homes. The review notes that the level of targeted provision has increased from one TAP period to the next but that the level of allocated funding is below the levels set in the earlier programmes.

Why are they needing to demolish 12 year old homes?

As an explanation for the under spend:

Traveller representatives and local authority employees cited extensive delays in the planning process as a principal cause for the underprovision of homes, that is, the planning process was highlighted as the principal reason for the underdelivery.

maccored

blanch152 wrote: »

If Sinn Fein were a normal party, they would find a way with the Alliance, the UUP, the SDLP and others to put pressure on the DUP as the single festering entity.

The fact that both Sinn Fein and the DUP are festering entities in the context of Northern Ireland stops the place from working.

blanch152 doth protest too much when it comes to SF if you ask me. really ... you are fanatical about them

An Ciarraioch

A new report released today about integration in Ireland - in summary, no statistically significant differences in employment between the Irish and non-Irish population, but Africans are a notable outlier (16%). Immigrants are more educated than the general population (50% third-level vs 35%), with Eastern Europeans (EU) at about the Irish average. Reading scores are low for non-English speakers, but maths and science results are virtually identical. So, to sum the report (in RTE link below), integration is gradually succeeding, but significant challenges remain:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1107/1009164-esri_migrants/

James Brown

26000 Elephants wrote: »

From the most recent NTACC report I can find:


Why are they needing to demolish 12 year old homes?

As an explanation for the under spend:

So they aren't spending the money because they need to carry out other things such as repairs etc. which I suppose are free?
The money allotted is not being used fully or at all. It's a budget given to CC's by FF/FG for allocation to Traveler needs. Simply pointing out that Casey using Tipp CC and Travelers as a rallying cry looks all the more foolish when Tipp have so much unused Traveler money they left sit, is all.

James Brown

maccored wrote: »

blanch152 doth protest too much when it comes to SF if you ask me. really ... you are fanatical about them

Seems you shouldn't stand up to a corrupt backward party but partner with them. Works for Fine Gael I suppose.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

The money allotted is not being used fully or at all. It's a budget given to CC's by FF/FG for allocation to Traveler needs. Simply pointing out that Casey using Tipp CC and Travelers as a rallying cry looks all the more foolish when Tipp have so much unused Traveler money they left sit, is all.

This post made me laugh.

On numerous occasions you have been the biggest defender of the local authorities on the issue of homelessness, preferring to blame your twin targets of Leo and Eoghan.

Now, when it suits, you are blaming local authorities for traveller issues. The inconsistency is mind-boggling.

From my perspective, the fact that Tipperary CC spent €1.7m on a handful of houses and still had unspent money but lots of Travellers living by the roadside, only demonstrates how utterly incompetent local authorities are. Tipp may well be setting the standard for incompetence.

Eric Cartman

blanch152 wrote: »

This post made me laugh.

On numerous occasions you have been the biggest defender of the local authorities on the issue of homelessness, preferring to blame your twin targets of Leo and Eoghan.

Now, when it suits, you are blaming local authorities for traveller issues. The inconsistency is mind-boggling.

From my perspective, the fact that Tipperary CC spent €1.7m on a handful of houses and still had unspent money but lots of Travellers living by the roadside, only demonstrates how utterly incompetent local authorities are. Tipp may well be setting the standard for incompetence.

From My perspective Tipperary CC should have spent 0 on traveller accomodation full stop.

James Brown

So to clarify, I'm only criticising the LA's because I have a problem with them? Well, obviously. I'm not being paid to criticise the LA's on Traveler spends, it suits my poiint of view to criticise them. Is that not how opinion works? Japers. What nonsensical tripe.
The point stands, with all Casey's spin and lie about the Travelers in Tipp, there is unused money there. So money doesn't seem to be his issue anyway. That money is for Travelers. As we've seen, if not used on Travelers, it sits there because it was supplied for Travelers. It would seem no Social housing builds or park benches were put on hold because all the money they had was spent on Travelers anyway.

Chips Lovell

Personal abuse or personal attacks will result in moderator action. Heed the charter. Attack the post, not the poster.

Thanks

26000 Elephants

Matt Barrett wrote: »

So they aren't spending the money because they need to carry out other things such as repairs etc. which I suppose are free?

I dont know the details, but I imagine they mean that the extra work involved in repairing the already constructed units (which, naturally, needs to be prioritised) is delaying further new builds. No, it is definitely not free, and I would like to see some figures explaining if traveler accommodation requires more repair work due to poor standards or misuse.

Simply pointing out that Casey using Tipp CC and Travelers as a rallying cry looks all the more foolish when Tipp have so much unused Traveler money they left sit, is all.

You do realise that the units Peter Casey referred to were *actually* built and ready but the travelers refused to occupy them until they were given land and stables for their horses? If they wont occupy the units already built, how would adding more units solve the impasse?

James Brown

26000 Elephants wrote: »

I dont know the details, but I imagine they mean that the extra work involved in repairing the already constructed units (which, naturally, needs to be prioritised) is delaying further new builds. No, it is definitely not free, and I would like to see some figures explaining if traveler accommodation requires more repair work due to poor standards or misuse.

Any money spent on Travelers, including repairs would seem to be from this pot. I may be wrong. It didn't specifically state the monies were only for construction.

26000 Elephants wrote: »

You do realise that the units Peter Casey referred to were *actually* built and ready but the travelers refused to occupy them until they were given land and stables for their horses? If they wont occupy the units already built, how would adding more units solve the impasse?

You do realise that was a lie Casey made up?
It was Casey who put the housing crisis in the mix regarding these particular travelers. So it would seem he didn't even get that much correct, as Travelers have specific funding.

26000 Elephants

Matt Barrett wrote: »

You do realise that was a lie Casey made up?

“They were to be built with a half-acre behind each house, with two stables,” Philip McCarthy, one of the residents of the “unauthorised” occupation at Cabragh Bridge, said at the weekend.

That is a quote, from a traveler, from this IT article, with no corrrection. In a later related article, the council clearly states:

A spokesman said Tipperary County Council “acknowledges that the late William McCarthy requested . . . stables with the houses. However, the council clarified early on . . . that the construction of stables was not eligible for funding from the Department [of Housing].

So, it appears that it may have been said at the time, and perhaps reeled back at a later point.

So you are absolutely wrong in claiming this is a "lie Casey made up"

James Brown

26000 Elephants wrote: »

That is a quote, from a traveler, from this IT article, with no corrrection. In a later related article, the council clearly states:



So, it appears that it may have been said at the time, and perhaps reeled back at a later point.

So you are absolutely wrong in claiming this is a "lie Casey made up"

They were asked to move and they were promised grazing land for their horses.

“We have never asked for houses. We never asked for stables. And we never asked for paddocks. We made an agreement with the local authority that we would move from our current location if grazing land was provided for our horses - something that is dear to us and a central part of our lives for generations.

“This is not asking for anything outside recognised government policy and nothing more than what we were promised.

“Instead of fulfilling their promise to us, Tipperary County Council have decided to wage a campaign against us through the media. They have not even talked to us, but seem to want to communicate with is through radio and television.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/traveller-families-to-protest-tipperary-visit-by-casey-1.3667927

Casey used this as a political football.

26000 Elephants

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Casey used this as a political football.

Like I said, there is evidence that it was asked for, but that claim is easily rolled back on.

That doesn't change the fact that you wrongly called him a liar. He was stating reported fact.

James Brown

26000 Elephants wrote: »

Like I said, there is evidence that it was asked for, but that claim is easily rolled back on.

That doesn't change the fact that you wrongly called him a liar. He was stating reported fact.

No he wasn't. He was using some story he was told, from a council he couldn't remember correctly to feed into his narrative about Travelers being a causal effect of the housing crisis because people like them were turning down houses because they were blackmailing for stables. Gutter politics from a man not fit for any office.

26000 Elephants

Matt Barrett wrote: »

No he wasn't. He was using some story he was told, from a council he couldn't remember correctly to feed into his narrative about Travelers being a causal effect of the housing crisis because people like them were turning down houses because they were blackmailing for stables. Gutter politics from a man not fit for any office.

His 'floating voter' podcast statement contained direct quotes of points made in the IT article from the previous week. Where did he say "...story he was told, from a council ..." in the podcast? Clue: He doesn't. He only mentioned TippCC because it was mentioned in the article. :rolleyes:

But I think you have gone Full Donald Trump to the point of believing your own lies let alone apologise for calling someone else a liar, so any further discussion with you is pointless.

James Brown

26000 Elephants wrote: »

His 'floating voter' podcast statement contained direct quotes of points made in the IT article from the previous week. Where did he say "...story he was told, from a council ..." in the podcast? Clue: He doesn't. He only mentioned TippCC because it was mentioned in the article. :rolleyes:

But I think you have gone Full Donald Trump to the point of believing your own lies let alone apologise for calling someone else a liar, so any further discussion with you is pointless.

Casey originally cited Cork rather than Tipp didn't he?
I posted a direct quote from the Irish Times. Don't call me a liar. If you can't be civil you're not worth my time.

Tell me how

This is partly the difficulty with trying to discuss things isn't it. And I'm not targeting any posters in particular on this thread. It's reflective of what happens in society now (and maybe always did but on a smaller scale).

It's very evident given recent national topics that some people who praised the advances in the media (including RTE) for giving coverage to particular topics which were previously kept quiet now lambast them for airing Peter Casey interviews.

Please don't come at me with "that's the liberal media". I've no interest in people in Ireland talking about "the mainstream media" like it's a thing which has monthly meetings where they discuss strategy. I'm talking about individual personalities (who I would hold the same position with on various topics) not recognising that there is a hypocrisy in saying one week "We need to be able talk openly about this" and the next "It's a disgrace that my tax money is funding this broadcasting".

Again, this shutting down of discussion (or trying to hold it through a bull horn) happens on both sides.

I've much more time for the likes of Michael Heseltine, or Liam Halligan or Bernie Sanders or Ben Shapiro who are willing to engage and let their words speak for themselves more than the volume at which they are said.

26000 Elephants

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Casey originally cited Cork rather than Tipp didn't he?
I posted a direct quote from the Irish Times. Don't call me a liar. If you can't be civil you're not worth my time.

Are you asking me? google "floating voter podcast peter casey" and listen to the bloody thing yourself. He starts with "The ridiculous situation down in Tipperary..."

You lied about Casey "making up" the story about the stables, and despite being corrected, you persisted in it. That makes you a deliberate liar.

Tell me how

^^^^^^

Thanks for giving a working example to my point.