Sopranos Mafia - Family Redefined - GAME THREAD

Ewan WW · 31-10-2018 8:39am

Gertrude WW wrote: »

Jakes 17 posts summed up in 3 words

Mechanics, Liam, Clodagh

And not much else.

He's probably about 6th or 7th in line to getting the bullet throne

Id like those low posters to get involved more. Like its day 3 now, ive had it hectic .....m yet I still manage to contribute. Ive snook to the toilet in work a few times just to read back

Liam WW · 31-10-2018 8:44am

Morning all....

@Ewan, I'd love to be posting more, but tbh it's a little daunting. I'm paranoid Im gonna give something away as most posts Im reading are forensically dissected by the other players lol.. I'll attempt to be more active where I can, but at the same time I'm not gonna post just for the sake of posting, seems unproductive and pointless..
Anyway, as people have said I'll probably be breakfast shortly!

Ewan WW · 31-10-2018 8:48am

Liam WW wrote: »

Morning all....

@Ewan, I'd love to be posting more, but tbh it's a little daunting. I'm paranoid Im gonna give something away as most posts Im reading are forensically dissected by the other players lol.. I'll attempt to be more active where I can, but at the same time I'm not gonna post just for the sake of posting, seems unproductive and pointless..
Anyway, as people have said I'll probably be breakfast shortly!

You can contribute though. No need to to post for the sake if it.

Whats your thoughts on WIni?

What do you think of Jakes vote for you 2 nights ago? Do you think hes full of it?

Where do you stand on Nigel?

Liam WW · 31-10-2018 8:57am

No opinion on Nigel at all so far, down my list atm.
Wini imo is keeping a low profile purposely, gut instinct is she is an experienced player with an important role for the wolves
I can understand Jakes votes, he thought I faking the noob card... I can understand that..It's the nature of the game to question everything I guess..

The hard part for me is I form an opinion of someone, then read a post from another player which then makes me doubt my own decision lol

Brendan WW · 31-10-2018 9:02am

Benefit of the doubt here Liam, if you are an important player with information for the good guys you should let us know and not let thst info die with you at 10am. I am however sceptical of that somewhat

Liam WW · 31-10-2018 9:07am

Unfortunately I have nothing of importance to share

Gabriel WW · 31-10-2018 9:28am

My suggestion on using the vig bullets caused a bit of ruckus last night after I went to bed. I had missed out on one very small, but very important word in the OP. I had thought they were BGs with bullets. Not one or the other at any given time. A shame, but agree that BG protection for the moment is a better use of their powers.

Necrominus wrote: »

Johnny 'Sack' Sacrimoni: From the New York Lupertazzi Crime Family - working alongside the village to eliminate both the Sopranos and FBI forever. John is a bodyvig - (bodyguard/vigilante), who can protect one player for an entire phase (lynch to lynch), or shoot a player during the ITA sessions, which will find its target automatically unless they are protected by any means. The choice to protect means the player is immune to any actions affecting them other than the lynch: kills, peeks, conversion attempts etc - whilst under protection.

Phil Leotardo: From the New York Lupertazzi Crime Family - working alongside the village to eliminate both the Sopranos and FBI forever. Phil is a bodyvig - (bodyguard/vigilante), who can protect one player for an entire phase (lynch to lynch), or shoot a player during the ITA sessions, which will find its target automatically unless they are protected by any means. The choice to protect means the player is immune to any actions affecting them other than the lynch: kills, peeks, conversion attempts etc - whilst under protection.

Gabriel WW · 31-10-2018 9:28am

Liam WW wrote: »

Unfortunately I have nothing of importance to share

Are you a wolf (Mafia or FBI)?

Nigel WW · 31-10-2018 9:31am

Gertrude WW wrote: »

Interesting Hypothesis Professor

I would like to subscribe to your pamphlet or newsletter

No pamphlet or newsletter but I once had a tv series

Derry WW · 31-10-2018 9:33am

Liam WW wrote: »

Morning all....

@Ewan, I'd love to be posting more, but tbh it's a little daunting. I'm paranoid Im gonna give something away as most posts Im reading are forensically dissected by the other players lol.. I'll attempt to be more active where I can, but at the same time I'm not gonna post just for the sake of posting, seems unproductive and pointless..
Anyway, as people have said I'll probably be breakfast shortly!

Ok..taking at face value that you're a noob, then I get that posting can be daunting. As for giving something away, well, the cat is kind of out of the bag on that one. If you are NRV you have nothing to give away really. If you are a roled villager then chances are you are breakfast for the wolves. If you're a wolf then there's a good chance you'll get a lynchin'

All that said, it's worth posting your thoughts. It's also ok for your thoughts to change based on how people respond, in fact it's encouraged.

And if you are an experienced player in wolfs clothing...well, you know all this already :P

Derry WW · 31-10-2018 9:47am

Ok so as it stands this morning pre-munch we have 19 players. 12 Roled (5 Good, 7 Bad) and 7 NRVs. Unless the wolves do us a favour and take out a rival then there's every chance that they'll decrease the numbers on the good side this morning. We're going to need to be very careful with the ITA today. I know that the hit rates are low but we don't need to be helping them out.

This is the post count as it stands currently.
Gabriel WW 132
Derry WW 106
Gertrude WW 71
Ewan WW 64
Katie WW 60
Holly WW 47
Nigel WW 36
Vernon WW 36
Orla WW 34
Barbara WW 32
Brendan WW 29
Oisin WW 20
Jake WW 17
Mary WW 17
Winifred WW 14
Liam WW 13
Henry WW 10
Clodagh WW 5
Desmond WW 2

I know the game had a disrupted start but that's a shockingly low post count overall. Plenty of people hovering on around 10 posts per day. That makes it really hard on the village and really easy for the wolves to limit their posting but still look like they are contributing.

Ewan WW · 31-10-2018 9:50am

Liam, if you could shoot someone now, who would it be and why?

Liam WW · 31-10-2018 10:06am

Wini, I believe is a wolf in sheeps clothing, call it a gut instinct

Derry WW · 31-10-2018 10:06am

This is the list of 'valid' shots from yesterday's ITA:

Katie Shoot: Ewan WW
Gertrude Shoot: Fiona WW
Ewan Shoot: Katie WW
Vernon Shoot: Desmond WW
Derry Shoot: Orla WW
Nigel Shoot: Clodagh WW
Brendan Shoot: Fiona WW

I think it's highly unlikely that all the shooters were entitled to shoot, so I suspect there is at least one wolf in that group. If I understand the maths (and I don't) then the most likely shots to land were probably mine and Gertrude's. Neither did so you should be looking closely at us today. I know I'm team village but can't be sure on anyone else. All that said, I could be wrong and the wolves didn't even bother to make a shot, but given we have so little to go on, it seems worth a closer look at the 7 of us.

Orla WW · 31-10-2018 10:10am

Would it not make sense that those with lower post counts would take the shot, knowing the shot would fail, as they were wolves, on the basis that they can claim the shot likely failed due to their low post count?

Orla WW · 31-10-2018 10:14am

Oisin bear with me. Havent forgotten about you

Derry WW · 31-10-2018 10:15am

Orla WW wrote: »

Would it not make sense that those with lower post counts would take the shot, knowing the shot would fail, as they were wolves, on the basis that they can claim the shot likely failed due to their low post count?

Yeah it maybe would but you also have to consider the (apparently) shockingly low odds of actually getting a hit even with a big post count discrepancy. I could be totally wrong and everyone of the shooters was team village but I doubt it. I just think it's worth looking at that group - I'm in that group and still saying this!

Ewan WW · 31-10-2018 10:20am

Liam WW wrote: »

Wini, I believe is a wolf in sheeps clothing, call it a gut instinct

Why the change from Desmond , whom you voted for last night?

Nigel WW · 31-10-2018 10:20am

Derry WW wrote: »

This is the list of 'valid' shots from yesterday's ITA:

Katie Shoot: Ewan WW
Gertrude Shoot: Fiona WW
Ewan Shoot: Katie WW
Vernon Shoot: Desmond WW
Derry Shoot: Orla WW
Nigel Shoot: Clodagh WW
Brendan Shoot: Fiona WW

I think it's highly unlikely that all the shooters were entitled to shoot, so I suspect there is at least one wolf in that group. If I understand the maths (and I don't) then the most likely shots to land were probably mine and Gertrude's. Neither did so you should be looking closely at us today. I know I'm team village but can't be sure on anyone else. All that said, I could be wrong and the wolves didn't even bother to make a shot, but given we have so little to go on, it seems worth a closer look at the 7 of us.

Barbara WW · 31-10-2018 10:20am

Morning all and Happy Halloween.

After being ultra busy yesterday, I've got very little planned for today at all so will be trying to get involved way more.

Oisin WW · 31-10-2018 10:21am

Right, in this game with the potential for so much killing, I reckon I've done well to get as far as this. To hold onto this information any longer would be risky and a bit greedy for more peeks. So…

I am your Seer, the hot ass Adriana La Cerva. You wondering why I haven't posted a whole lot? I'm too busy posing naked in front of a huge mirror. Seriously though, I was trying to keep a lowish profile. Anyway, more ramble later, let's get to the results. They're quite good...

(Whether I peaked a villager as NRV or RV, I will be just listing them as villager now for both their and the village's own good. We can debate the merits of this should I survive the munch.)

Night 0

Peek: Liam
Result: Christopher Moltisanti of Team Sopranos.

Yes, with my very first peek I found my lover, that's Chris and Ade for ya! I peeked Liam because I thought it was odd that he didn't post at all on Sunday, but still got a vote in for Sunday night. He was the only player on Day 0 to not post but still manage to vote in the lynch. The rest of the non-shows failed to vote. And someone in here yesterday said there was nothing to be got from those Day 0 lynch results

As regards the backroom and our chance to win the game ourselves if we just outlast the rest of Team Sopranos - I had no intention of teaming up with Chris in our backroom and winning the game for ourselves. Far too risky, far too much of a chance for me to be played. A more adventurous player might go for it, but there's too much potential for head-fúckery for me. Liam posted once in that BR, yesterday morning around 8am, to say hi and ask how were things.

If Liam dies, I die 24 hours later unless I break the bond. I got some clarification on how to break the bond in the answers thread a couple of nights ago.

I do believe that 'Liam' is one of the new players, so I'm sorry about this in that respect. If it's any consolation, it obviously wasn't your COP slip which got you peeked.

But...Christufah - you can consider this payback!

Night 1

Peek: Nigel
Result: Village

I made that peek not because Nigel went after me on Day 1, but because of why he went after me. I thought it was completely hollow reasoning. Wolves find it harder than anyone to come up with good reasoning against another player, I've been there before, and that's what made me peek Nigel. I didn't get a wolf, but this peek was still worthwhile for me.

Night 2

Peek: Orla
Result: The FBI Sniper (unnamed)

I literally just made this peek in the last few minutes, left it as late as possible, holy shít what a feeling! Orla was wolfy as hell yesterday, and an active player disappearing for most of the day screams '2nd account' to me. Then she voted for me without even mentioning me yesterday, or at all unless I missed something.

Now that I process this fresh information, yep, I'm very likely dead come this munch. I lit the fires under a Soprano last night, and the FBI Sniper voted for me in the lynch and said she would get back to me this morning. Yikes.

So, that's it village. A fourth peek would be lovely, but I hardly have a hope of surviving to get it. If I do somehow survive this munch, one of our bodyvigs, please protect me tonight.

I post this now, earlier then 9:59, as I'm not sure exactly when during 'the night' Orla can strike with her sniper bullet. Sure, it could be 10am, but I just can't take that chance and hold onto this information any longer. BTW, it was me who asked for that clarification which appeared in the answers thread last night regarding the sniper role.

My death will confirm all of the above, and if you don't get to find out who Nigel is from me, just know that he is village and start building a better core with him in it. Nigel - maybe concentrate more on finding wolves and less on figuring out the ITA math...respectfully IMO.

Peace out village, Ade.

Ewan WW · 31-10-2018 10:21am

Nigel WW wrote: »

The following are my estimates for how likely someone was to succeed yesterday. I've just used post counts as they are now so they are likely to be on the high side if anything. I believe that you are correct that yourself and Gertrude were most likely to succeed but you both still had pretty poor odds.

Shooter|Target|Percentage Chance
Katie|Ewan|9.6%
Gertrude|Fiona|16%
Ewan|Katie|11.3%
Vernon|Desmond|8.8%
Derry|Orla|24.1%
Nigel|Clodagh|8.1%
Brendan|Fiona|5.5%

Most of the rest of us had a slim chance though, assuming that everyone is above board and is a villager and didn't actually have 0%.

Im still lost on ITA, so lets say I have 50 percent chance of a successful hit, how does that work?

Like how is it decided that the hit fails or not.

Liam WW · 31-10-2018 10:24am

Ewan WW wrote: »

Why the change from Desmond , whom you voted for last night?

didnt vote for Desmond last night

Ewan WW · 31-10-2018 10:25am

Liam WW wrote: »

didnt vote for Desmond last night

I might have misread.

Doesnt matter, your outted you fool

Derry WW · 31-10-2018 10:29am

Oisín if you're telling the truth fair play but for now I'm trying to figure out what you could be up to with a fake claim

Orla WW · 31-10-2018 10:29am

Right so i believe Oisin is doing the auld helpful villager mask trick. And he is doing a decent job. Symptoms of this trick are

-mid level post count
-question lots of things
-keep bringing the same things back up again
-dont really piss anyone else off
-keep whatever conversation is going, going.

He did so on COP on Sunday and he did so some more since.

I spotted it in COP and i didnt really have a stronger feeling on anyone else on Tuesday, hence my vote for him.

Pre-COP move.

Post #1 First post and brings up tasks. You will notice a trend here in my summary.....
Post #2 helpful villager - listing out who has checked in or not. Ive seen this used as a wolf tactic to seem helpful and useful to the village.
Post #3 Getting cosy with Ewan.
Post #4 & 5 Could be feigning ignorance of the wolf teams (oh yeah sorry there are 2 wolf teams and only one of them has a double account)

Post COP move.

Oisin WW wrote: »

Evening guys. That was a rollercoaster of a read, great work village!

I'm glad to see the few things about Ewan and Clodagh from the COP thread cleared up. Ewan, I get your reasoning of seeing who would jump on a Clodagh bandwagon last night, but what if your bandwagon worked and you actually got Clodagh lynched? If Clodagh was village or RV, that was a bit of a risk to take just to be able to analyse a bandwagon in the aftermath.

Anyway, Wendy seemed to be the one who was closest to jumping on a Clodagh bandwagon. Can we take from that that Clodagh is at least not on Team Sopranos? Doesn't confirm Clodagh with the FBI out there, but it helps show that her and Wendy probably aren't on a team together. There was no one really posting at that time in COP yesterday, no wagon forming on Clodagh, so no need for Wendy to make that post to try to blend in with the common village opinion. If she and Clodagh were both on Team Sopranos, it wasn't the best post for Wendy to make.

Great that we got Paulie and Melfi, but one thing stands out to beware of - Did the FBI sniper get a shot away between 1 and 2pm today? The OP says they will have two bullets to fire at anytime. The OP does not say that the ITA sessions are limited to one bullet. So, would the ITA be a good place for the FBI sniper to hide their shot?

Distancing self from Ewan. Always questioning mechanics and raising new possibilities for discussion. This is a good trait unless its all someone does.

Oisin WW wrote: »

Was asleep after a very busy weekend.

Looking into this morning's events that I missed...

No munch could mean a BG protect, maybe one of them struck it lucky. However, since the OP doesn't have a 'no task' rule, it could also be that the wolves weren't successful with any task they might have had yesterday. The thread was so quiet, as well as being split between two different sites, it would have been risky to attempt a task.

Whatever happened, their kill this morning was not 'valid'...

...so the FBI picked up that kill I reckon. However, the wording above about 'that night' isn't so clear. Does it mean that the FBI get the kill after tonight's lynch, to be announced at 10am tomorrow?

We could be looking at two kills tomorrow morning if so (wolves and FBI), plus a conversion/Witness Protection attempt.

See, this is more questioning things without contributing.

Oisin WW wrote: »

The bolded part would have done just fine, without the rest of it which attempts to throw needless shade in the build-up to an unclear lynch vote.

This is a game about casting doubt, and I feel there's nothing outlandish about trying to keep the FBI sniper in mind after a slew of shooting. Interesting that you attempt to close down that avenue of investigation and call it outlandish.

Defensive. Protecting his record of questioning everything without generating examples, proof, actions.

Oisin WW wrote: »

I mentioned them on COP yesterday and said we should be on the lookout for them then. Also, the lack of a munch this morning might mean that there was no successful attempts at a task.

Sure, that could seem unfair on the wolves for them to have to task for their first munch, but they had Paulie and his ITA bullet to potentially make up for a failed munch.

More task talk. Oisin is there a reason you are intent on keeping these things front of our mind? Ive no problem with you keeping an eye out for tasks; doing some work to find them, pointing out something tasky; but your contribution thus far has only been to say 'hey lets look for tasks' without actually looking for them.

Gabriel WW · 31-10-2018 10:30am

Oisin WW wrote: »

My death will confirm all of the above, and if you don't get to find out who Nigel is from me, just know that he is village and start building a better core with him in it. Nigel - maybe concentrate more on finding wolves and less on figuring out the ITA math...respectfully IMO.

Peace out village, Ade.

You're sure Nigel is village and not Tony who peeks village?

Liam WW · 31-10-2018 10:30am

Ewan WW wrote: »

I might have misread.

Doesnt matter, your outted you fool

Am I? or is he making this up

Ewan WW · 31-10-2018 10:30am

So if Liam and Orla are bad, we are best taking Orla out first right?

Shes more of a danger than Chris at the moment.

Gabriel WW · 31-10-2018 10:31am

Oisin WW wrote: »

I am your Seer, the hot ass Adriana La Cerva. You wondering why I haven't posted a whole lot? I'm too busy posing naked in front of a huge mirror. Seriously though, I was trying to keep a lowish profile. Anyway, more ramble later, let's get to the results. They're quite good...

Why'd you vote Ewan night two when you'd already found a wolf in Liam?

Sopranos Mafia - Family Redefined - GAME THREAD

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