Werewolf: The Game Show

quickbeam

Oh, Happy Thanksgiving peeps! Today I am grateful to be still breathing. Even if the hangman's noose is waiting for me. #liveeverymoment.

quickbeam

The numbers:
Gonna assume Jack is out of the game, and that MrsF was a wolf (could be wrong on both counts, but until we hear any different).
That leaves 8 players, 6 villagers, 2 wolves
I guess Rikand will be for the chop shortly, so, 5 villagers, 2 wolves
Mislynch QB, 4 villagers, 2 wolves
Munch villager, 3 villagers, 2 wolves
Then, one more mislynch and we're fecked!

With MrsF now gone, I'd got to look closely at Uriel. If he was involved in Fixxxer's downfall, then it wouldn't be the first time a wolf has screwed over one of their own to look villagery and romp to victory.

quickbeam

Though that discounts prizes, which could either improve our chances or disimprove (?) (worsen?) our chances. Would probably want as many bodies around at 10.15 as possible to ensure it falls in to the right hands.

quickbeam

quickbeam wrote: »

With MrsF now gone, I'd got to look closely at Uriel. If he was involved in Fixxxer's downfall, then it wouldn't be the first time a wolf has screwed over one of their own to look villagery and romp to victory.

The second wolf could be very deeply hidden though. I mean, pretty much everyone else looks villagery to me. Yes, even Duffman despite his gunning for me relentlessly, I think it was coming from a good place. If I was to put an order on likelihood after Uriel, it'd be:
Drumpot
Deco
Duffers
Necro

And honestly, if it's Necro then he deserves to win ALL the awards in the Wolfies in that case.

quickbeam

Rikand

MrsFlush was the governess!!!!

2 wolves to go!

Drumpot

quickbeam wrote: »

The second wolf could be very deeply hidden though. I mean, pretty much everyone else looks villagery to me. Yes, even Duffman despite his gunning for me relentlessly, I think it was coming from a good place. If I was to put an order on likelihood after Uriel, it'd be:
Drumpot
Deco
Duffers
Necro

And honestly, if it's Necro then he deserves to win ALL the awards in the Wolfies in that case.

If I win the prize and it’s a Bullet I won’t wait around to ask anybody what I should do.

You haven’t even responded to any of the points I made and have gone straight in to make me number 1 on your list for no obvious reason other then I’ve given a read of the votes. I’m fairly confident now you are a wolf cause you’ve posted enough this morning to look like you have the time to mount a reasonable argument against me...

Doesn’t mean I can’t appreciate Flushys last post!

quickbeam

Jaysus, Necro, you sure talk some sh*te!

Necro 613
Pter 293
beakerjoe 289
Drumpot 130
Jack Moore 128
quickbeam 119
Barney92 114
duffman13 95
deconduo 95
MrsFlushdraw 89
Loughc 80
Lord TSC 68
Uriel. 59
partyjungle 55
Rikand 53
Stu Redman 49
sullivlo 44
fixxxer 43
WerewolfGM 41
tritium 31
Bounty Hunter 26
Virtanen 19
Kolido 13
Strawberry Milkshake 11

quickbeam

Drumpot wrote: »

If I win the prize and it’s a Bullet I won’t wait around to ask anybody what I should do.

You haven’t even responded to any of the points I made and have gone straight in to make me number 1 on your list for no obvious reason other then I’ve given a read of the votes. I’m fairly confident now you are a wolf cause you’ve posted enough this morning to look like you have the time to mount a reasonable argument against me...

Doesn’t mean I can’t appreciate Flushys last post!

Number One after Uriel. But a long way down. I think you're villager. I think everyone after Uriel is villager which is why I think the wolves have played a great game here. It could nearly be anyone in that list.

If you win a bullet and shoot me then it's tonight's lynch that's the last chance at mislynch rather than tomorrow's. I know I'll die today.

What questions? Apologies if I missed any, can you point me to them or ask again and I'll happily answer. I have time today at least which hasn't helped my case during the week that I didn't have time.

Drumpot

quickbeam wrote: »

Number One after Uriel. But a long way down. I think you're villager. I think everyone after Uriel is villager which is why I think the wolves have played a great game here. It could nearly be anyone in that list.

If you win a bullet and shoot me then it's tonight's lynch that's the last chance at mislynch rather than tomorrow's. I know I'll die today.

What questions? Apologies if I missed any, can you point me to them or ask again and I'll happily answer. I have time today at least which hasn't helped my case during the week that I didn't have time.

What did you think of Decos choice of Stu? I posted all his posts yesterday and Stu’s 2 posts.

I can’t see how he changed from Uriel/pj as wolves earlier in the day to Stu later. Stud said very little that looks peek worthy between decos initial early post announcing the peek prize and later on in the day when he used his gut...

quickbeam

quickbeam wrote: »

If you win a bullet and shoot me then it's tonight's lynch that's the last chance at mislynch rather than tomorrow's. I know I'll die today.

Just re-running the numbers in that case just to be sure it is tonight's lynch that's the last chance:

The numbers:
Gonna assume Jack is out of the game
That leaves 8 players, 6 villagers, 2 wolves
I guess Rikand will be for the chop shortly, so, 5 villagers, 2 wolves
Duffman shoots QB: 4 villagers, 2 wolves
Mislynch another, 3 villagers, 2 wolves
Munch villager, 2 villagers, 2 wolves = wolf win

quickbeam

Drumpot wrote: »

What did you think of Decos choice of Stu? I posted all his posts yesterday and Stu’s 2 posts.

I can’t see how he changed from Uriel/pj as wolves earlier in the day to Stu later. Stud said very little that looks peek worthy between decos initial early post announcing the peek prize and later on in the day when he used his gut...

Deco could be a wolf, and peeked Stu already, and came out with the "prize" as a way to out the SK.

Or it could have been a genuine prize. A peek sounds like a plausible prize. I don't know why he peeked Stu, he's still around, have you asked him? What was his answer? Maybe he thought Stu was good and was looking to develop a village core and stumbled on the SK thing by accident.

Either is possible. I think the second is *slightly* more probable, but in a game with a deep hidden wolf, who know?

Aside from the peek, there's been nothing to my eyes indicating him as a wolf. I did see him pocket me, which I thought was a bit funny, as you're meant to pocket the trusted players, not those that everyone is suspicious of. He's evidently played before, but on a board with a very different culture so I just put it down to that.

quickbeam

deconduo wrote: »

Holy ****. Well my gut was wrong, but in all the right ways.

Ah, I found it! I knew there was something about the peek. Drummer, you might want to ask Deco what he meant here, as I don't want to speak for him. But his answer might explain why he peeked Stu.

Rikand

No real change in my thought process of the #Wagonomics

1 thought though is that Drumpot voted Flushy on day2 in a tight voting day. More likely to be a villager from it than a wolf

Barney92

quickbeam wrote: »

Just re-running the numbers in that case just to be sure it is tonight's lynch that's the last chance:

The numbers:
Gonna assume Jack is out of the game
That leaves 8 players, 6 villagers, 2 wolves
I guess Rikand will be for the chop shortly, so, 5 villagers, 2 wolves
Duffman shoots QB: 4 villagers, 2 wolves
Mislynch another, 3 villagers, 2 wolves
Munch villager, 2 villagers, 2 wolves = wolf win

Why is duffman shooting you? And how?

Drumpot

quickbeam wrote: »

Ah, I found it! I knew there was something about the peek. Drummer, you might want to ask Deco what he meant here, as I don't want to speak for him. But his answer might explain why he peeked Stu.

I did ask and if Deco is reading this you can find my post :

Drumpot wrote: »

These were today’s posts that I can see from deco.

He went from neutral on Stu In the morning to going with his gut later on. Stu posted 2 times in between and they were close to him outing Stu:

Deco, i would love to hear how your gut went from Neutral to stu .....

He wanted Uriel or PJ shot which is some defence of Uriel (a plus, not a clear)

This chain of events would fit a narrative that it was a wolf peak and a planned targeting of Stu.

It was late so wouldn’t hold a lack of response against him yet.

Ok so I know I am village so this is my perspective right now:

- Necro - good - can somebody come up with a decent argument as to why Necro would shoot and expose Fixxer? I can’t and unless I can there’s no way a wolf shoots and kills a wolf when there wasn’t concrete bandwagon against him

- Barney - shoots wolves

- Rikand - unless wolves peaked all three captains there is no way they could of states who was a captain. Highly unlikely a ruse unless people can post angles or strategies that can offer an alternative.

This leaves 4 people who I don’t have a massive read on and to be fair I’m basing a lot of my gut feelings on votes:

QB - up for the chop last night and survives with Mrsf, deco and Necro votes

Deco - odd choice for Stu that’s great for village but also great for wolves and makes deco look villagey.

Duffman - has always voted QB - would a wolf consistently vote for a team mate? If duffman is a wolf QB likely isn’t. Haven’t seen QB make much of this which is odd cause if I was a goody and one person kept targeting me I would be looking to know why! (Maybe QB has done this already?)

Uriel - voted for lord x 2 and QB. Again, not convinced a wolf would of voted for QB (if they are on same team) given how unclear the votes were last night. Uriel’s odd behavior around munch is why I voted for them, it really did look like wolves celebrating what they thought was a march to victory. Mind you , after the lynch results i thoigh this could also be a wolf mini on thread celebration:

deconduo wrote: »

Nice

So if QB is bad I’m begging duffman is prob good. This leaves deco and Uriel.

Necro

I mean, that's fixxxers post now calling QB a wolf but asking for a shot on Barney.


AND Flushy 'finding' the task in an effort to take heat off QB yesterday.

AND saying she was voting Jack/Uriel when the two wagons were PJ/QB

So QB is obviously wolf 3.

I think Deco is wolf 4 based off it being a wolf peek.

I know I'm good, Rikand and Barney are clear, I believe Drumpot to be good (and QBs push this morning on him is wolfy AF)

So it leaves Duffers and Deco (and Jack but...)

So we kill QB the third wolf and we can lynch Deco and duffman after that.

That's the order imo.

Necro

Oh sh1t and Uriel.

But Uriel's votes and him pointing out fixxxer at a crucial time lead me to think he's good.

duffman13

Necro wrote: »

I mean, that's fixxxers post now calling QB a wolf but asking for a shot on Barney.


AND Flushy 'finding' the task in an effort to take heat off QB yesterday.

AND saying she was voting Jack/Uriel when the two wagons were PJ/QB

So QB is obviously wolf 3.

I think Deco is wolf 4 based off it being a wolf peek.

I know I'm good, Rikand and Barney are clear, I believe Drumpot to be good (and QBs push this morning on him is wolfy AF)

So it leaves Duffers and Deco (and Jack but...)

So we kill QB the third wolf and we can lynch Deco and duffman after that.

That's the order imo.

I'm on board with this line of thought at the moment

quickbeam

Barney92 wrote: »

Why is duffman shooting you? And how?

I reran the numbers after this exchange.

Drumpot wrote: »

If I win the prize and it’s a Bullet I won’t wait around to ask anybody what I should do.

quickbeam wrote: »

If you win a bullet and shoot me then it's tonight's lynch that's the last chance at mislynch rather than tomorrow's. I know I'll die today.

Drumpot

Just one thing I thought of the in the shower there Necro. Wolves can’t shoot wolves , isn’t that right?

If that’s the case I can discard a rabbit hole I had started to play out involving you and a masterful plan to buy bulletproof village clearance. With no seer to confirm nobody could argue against you, you understand why I ask right?

quickbeam

Drumpot wrote: »

Duffman - has always voted QB - would a wolf consistently vote for a team mate? If duffman is a wolf QB likely isn’t. Haven’t seen QB make much of this which is odd cause if I was a goody and one person kept targeting me I would be looking to know why! (Maybe QB has done this already?)

His reasoning on me was always consistent - the "task" post (which is now debunked), and I've always been consistent in refuting this. And called him out on it pretty strenuously here.

Necro

Drumpot wrote: »

Just one thing I thought of the in the shower there Necro. Wolves can’t shoot wolves , isn’t that right?

If that’s the case I can discard a rabbit hole I had started to play out involving you and a masterful plan to buy bulletproof village clearance. With no seer to confirm nobody could argue against you, you understand why I ask right?

In the benefit of being open and honest, I don't believe anything would proclude a wolf from shooting a fellow wolf.

Munching a fellow wolf - nope, can't see that being allowed.

Shooting a fellow wolf - it's probably ok.

However - ask yourself this. Of all the wolves to shoot (assuming I'm a wolf in this scenario), do you see wolf Necro shooting his alpha with two lives and thus outing him?
I could have gone for an easier target, QB has had heat since day 1 for example.

quickbeam

Necro wrote: »

AND Flushy 'finding' the task in an effort to take heat off QB yesterday.

I supposed she did that to help herself. Earn herself some villagery points. Sure, if I was a wolf I'd know of the task myself and would have "found" it as that was the biggest thing people were beating me with. I ISO'd Fixxxer and never found the task (but then I'm sh*te* at anagrams).

quickbeam

Actually, just thinking of this countdown clock is ending at lynch time is that the end-game regardless of win conditions? Will be it be team with best percentage survivors? If there's no bullet and you mislynch me, then it's 4 villagers left and 2 wolves.
That'd be 4/16 = 25%
2 / 4 = 50%, so wolves would win regardless.

Or 31% v 25% to the villagers if you lynch correctly.

Probably a rabbit hole too far, but OP does mention the ultimate win, and the countdown clock has to count down to *something*.

duffman13

quickbeam wrote: »

Actually, just thinking of this countdown clock is ending at lynch time is that the end-game regardless of win conditions? Will be it be team with best percentage survivors? If there's no bullet and you mislynch me, then it's 4 villagers left and 2 wolves.
That'd be 4/16 = 25%
2 / 4 = 50%, so wolves would win regardless.

Or 31% v 25% to the villagers if you lynch correctly.

Probably a rabbit hole too far, but OP does mention the ultimate win, and the countdown clock has to count down to *something*.

I might buy that if there wasn't an additional quiz after tonights lynch. Hopefully Necro gets a conundrum to solve

Necro

duffman13 wrote: »

I might buy that if there wasn't an additional quiz after tonights lynch. Hopefully Necro gets a conundrum to solve

Drumpot

Necro

So, I'm pretty sure people have figured it anyways, but here goes:

I'm not the Countdown Clock. I'm NRV.

So, why would an NRV claim to be a ridiculous role and keep up the pretense for so long?

Well, initially it started as a joke claim, a bit of fun for a bored NRV. However I quickly realised that by claiming to be the Clock long term, I could possibly:

A( draw a peek off some of the other good roles
B( maybe draw a munch.

Now, unfortunately it looks unlikely B will happen. I suspect A has happened though, and wolves are quite happy to allow me to keep up the pretense in order to possibly secure a mislynch. (Circa QB and her post re: game ending today via countdown....:pac: )

I was hoping tbh that the priest would hold off till this morning and I could drag the munch away from Barney (and I think he got what I was doing), but unfortunately it wasn't to be.

I'd also like to continue to point to me shooting fixxxer as a point of my villageriness.
But yeah, no point in keeping up the pretense now as there's essentially no one left to try and protect.

Drumpot

Necro wrote: »

In the benefit of being open and honest, I don't believe anything would proclude a wolf from shooting a fellow wolf.

Munching a fellow wolf - nope, can't see that being allowed.

Shooting a fellow wolf - it's probably ok.

However - ask yourself this. Of all the wolves to shoot (assuming I'm a wolf in this scenario), do you see wolf Necro shooting his alpha with two lives and thus outing him?
I could have gone for an easier target, QB has had heat since day 1 for example.

Hmm. .

Well the Pter dynamic would make that actually a decent plan if the wolves believed Pter, thought he was a big threat and believed that using Fixxer to kill the director was the best way to "clear" you (no seer to catch you) and get rid of Pter... I mean you are effectively a "villager" who will survive until the end at this stage.

Do you mind me asking why you chose Fixxer again ?

Its a massive stretch TBH and if nothing else this gives you guys an insight into how deep I go into rabbit holes!. . I don't believe you are a wolf, just want to make sure I leave it all on the field ! ! I also chuckled at the thought of the wolves using my proclivity for rabbit holing as an opportunity to cause some chaos.

If people are in the backroom panicking that I will drag things out 20 days, I am only doing some due diligence. Necro is the most dangerous "wolf" potential and I just think its only reasonable to ask the questions.

I even had this idea of posting at 9.59 in case wolves try one last ditch strategy to discredit Rikand by killing me (or Necro) or pointing to my questioning of necro (to discredit him) and trying to win the prize and kill Rikand or necro. I think we have them and any act of desperation should be treated as such.

Right now I'm still happy with my feelings earlier that point QB - Deco - Uriel . .