will house prices in dublin fall post brexit?

listermint

The facts indicate it's highly unlikely of a fall in house prices.

Supply

Workforce growth.

Economic growth.


Ireland is a power house in the EU right now even with the UK problems if a deal isn't worked out it will only impact our excessive growth by around 2 percent.

Not something to be sniffed at but certainly not something that will dump is into a recession.

If your Betting on getting a cheaper house come march 2019 the crystal ball indicates no.

noodler

MSVforever wrote: »

Interesting topic.
In the Celtic tiger years we had an undersupply, in the recession we had an oversupply and now we have an undersupply of housing again.

Is the population growth mostly based on net immigration due to the international workforce (multilingual jobs etc) or are Irish people returning home?

Has anybody any statistics?

Population growth implies its based predominantly on babies born.

The term is household formation and the esri have projections which I have to recheck but I believe are something like 20,000 units per year with only 14,000 projected to be build on average per annum which is bad but is actual coming from an already accumulated deficit.

Attached slide from a recent presentation neatly sums up some of what I have been saying regarding fundamentals.

Moonjet

The cost of building is another factor to consider ( land + building materials + labour ). Developers have only recently returned to profitability since prices have reached a critical point. And even then, it's only certain areas and types of property (most new development seems to be semi-D houses in commuter towns) and the odd 100 - 200 apartment blocks which are snapped up by the REITs.
With a chronic supply shortage, if prices fall below that critical point - developers will pull out of the market and stop building again. Enter supply shortage and rising prices again.

markpb

I wish I was as confident as others here. At least one major investor has issued a warning that the UK is not safe to invest in until the current political problems are resolved. If the UK leave the EU without a trade deal, we'll have problems importing and exporting physical goods. We'll see lots of retailers finding it difficult to get products into shops. A UK recession is likely. A lot of our tourists come from the UK so between a recession there and the likely impact that will have on the exchange rate, or tourist market could be hurt. Being more pessimistic, a UK recession could trigger a smaller recession serious western Europe including Ireland.

I have one apartment bought in 2005 which is only recently out of negative enquity and a house bought in 2014 which could leave me in negative equity if a crash happens so I'm not crossing my fingers and hoping for a recession so I can buy some cheap houses.

In any case, people are quick to say we had an oversupply last time but that forget that for almost five years, no one could get a mortgage to buy a home. This was a major contributor to places lying empty for a decade.

handlemaster

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Possible go up. A few companies are moving jobs over here, also Facebook have announced another 5,000 position's

do you have a link to this ?

mariaalice

I would say nobody knows its a new situation so there is nothing to base a forecast on. There are a lot of people both professionally personally and business wise waiting till after brexit to make various decisions.

Supply is a big issue with prices, I happened to be in the Bettystown Mornington Laytown are on Friday/Saturday and know it reasonably well, you can buy a new 3 bed A-rated house for 259k https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dun-eimear-eastham-road-bettystown-meath/4151319 and you would easily pick up 3 bed second hand for 240k. The reason for this is supply there is a huge amount of housing to pick from and lots of new development planned.

Contrast that with north Wicklow fewer new developments and much more constraint second-hand supply, cheapest new house would be in the region of 450k.

I know one area might be more desirable than the other but even taking that into account a large part of the price difference must be accounted for by supply.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

mariaalice wrote: »

I would say nobody knows its a new situation so there is nothing to base a forecast on. There are a lot of people both professionally personally and business wise waiting till after brexit to make various decisions.

Supply is a big issue with prices, I happened to be in the Bettystown Mornington Laytown are on Friday/Saturday and know it reasonably well, you can buy a new 3 bed A-rated house for 259k https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dun-eimear-eastham-road-bettystown-meath/4151319 and you would easily pick up 3 bed second hand for 240k. The reason for this is supply there is a huge amount of housing to pick from and lots of new development planned.

Contrast that with north Wicklow fewer new developments and much more constraint second-hand supply, cheapest new house would be in the region of 450k.

I know one area might be more desirable than the other but even taking that into account a large part of the price difference must be accounted for by supply.

Tbf bettystown to city centre would be absolutely brutal in the long run if you're commuting.

mariaalice

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Tbf bettystown to city centre would be absolutely brutal in the long run if you're commuting.

Thousands do it everyday bus or train, it took me about 20 minutes to drive from Swords to Bettystown last Friday at 4pm.

oceanman

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Tbf bettystown to city centre would be absolutely brutal in the long run if you're commuting.

so would commuting from north Wicklow though..

mariaalice

Route 101X is a peak time express service from Wilton Terrace in Dublin city centre to Termon Abbey, north of Drogheda. Services operate via Baggot Street Lower, Pembroke Street, Leeson Street, Dawson Street, Suffolk Street, Westmoreland Street, Eden Quay, North Wall Quay, Dublin Port Tunnel, M1 motorway, Balrothery, then follow the same route as the 101 as far as Drogheda Bus Station and continues out to Termon Abbey.

According to their timetable, it takes about 50 min to get to Custom House Quay from Juilianstown.

mkdon

what companies are moving here that have not already done so ....some companies may also move the other way no?

Zenify

Are people here actually arguing that Ireland will get more jobs after Brexit? that is a little too optimistic in my view. Brexit is bad news for Ireland. Nobody knows for sure but some economic models for a bad Brexit could lower Irelands GDP by up to 7%. A good few politicians were using this figure at talks. I was talking to a few European diplomats a few weeks ago and I told them that a lot of UK people were getting Irish passports to come over here. They laughed at this saying why do they think Ireland would be any better after Brexit. That point really hit home with me.

davindub

Zenify wrote: »

Are people here actually arguing that Ireland will get more jobs after Brexit? that is a little too optimistic in my view. Brexit is bad news for Ireland. Nobody knows for sure but some economic models for a bad Brexit could lower Irelands GDP by up to 7%. A good few politicians were using this figure at talks. I was talking to a few European diplomats a few weeks ago and I told them that a lot of UK people were getting Irish passports to come over here. They laughed at this saying why do they think Ireland would be any better after Brexit. That point really hit home with me.

Exactly. It isn't good news for Ireland....

riclad

Its not good news for ireland, it may stop prices rising ,
maybe prices might fall by a few per cent .2 or 3 per cent
Irish citys need more house,s to be built ,
we need about 20k housing units to be built every year ,
We are not even close to building that no.
Even if britain is outside the eu we can still make a trade agreement with
the uk.
Theres loads of new offices being built in dublin,
i see no sign of investors in ireland being put off by brexit.
I think brexit makes ireland more attractive for tech companys vs the uk,
if they consider the situation post brexit.

Zenify

riclad, your points about the impact of Brexit are not correct. We cannot make a trade deal with the UK if they are outside the EU. This is one of the reasons why the UK is leaving, so they can make trade deals.

Investors are very nervous about Ireland and Brexit. The Irish stock exchange plummeted when UK ministers resigned last Friday. They are afraid this deal won't pass. Yes some jobs have come to Ireland and we may get more due to Brexit. But we will lose far more than will will gain.

4ensic15

Prices are already topping out and even beginning to fall. Brexit will only make it worse. Brexit is going to have terrible effects on the irish economy. A significant percentage of Irish products are exported to the UK. Most of the rest leave via the UK. Most Irish imports come in via the UK. the disruption and lengthening of supply chains will cause major and expensive upheaval.
Anyone with a titter of wit is selling property no to have cash reserves to pick up the Brexit bargains. The vultures are already circling. They have feasted on the carcass of the Celtic Tiger. Now for the main course, the Brexit Bust!

mkdon

interesting but where are you getting 7% gdp from?

noodler

4ensic15 wrote: »

Prices are already topping out and even beginning to fall. Brexit will only make it worse. Brexit is going to have terrible effects on the irish economy. A significant percentage of Irish products are exported to the UK. Most of the rest leave via the UK. Most Irish imports come in via the UK. the disruption and lengthening of supply chains will cause major and expensive upheaval.
Anyone with a titter of wit is selling property no to have cash reserves to pick up the Brexit bargains. The vultures are already circling. They have feasted on the carcass of the Celtic Tiger. Now for the main course, the Brexit Bust!

Beginning to fall?

Nope, the increases have slowed recently is all.

mkdon

wow interesting topic if must say so myself... the variety of opinion shows noone actually knows.. the experts are still predicting prices to rise for many years to come ... any backup for your brexit bust argument?

mkdon

they have decreased in some small cases in the likes of d4.. but generally overall have increased but level of increase has fallen

Zenify

I heard the 7% figure being used at some of the Brexit talks. The Journal have an article on it too based on a report titled "Even in the best-case Brexit scenario, the Irish economy will still take a hit - government report". The mention the 7%drop if we have a no deal scenario. But as you can see from the title Brexit will not be good for Ireland.

mkdon

Zenify wrote: »

I heard the 7% figure being used at some of the Brexit talks. The Journal have an article on it too based on a report titled "Even in the best-case Brexit scenario, the Irish economy will still take a hit - government report". The mention the 7%drop if we have a no deal scenario. But as you can see from the title Brexit will not be good for Ireland.

do you have the link??

Graham

I'm guessing the poster is referring to the unreleased/partially-leaked report produced by Copenhagen Economics at the start of the year.

The report apparently suggests GDP 7% less or growth 7% less (depending on the source) in the event of a hard Brexit/WTO Brexit.

noodler

Graham wrote: »

I'm guessing the poster is referring to the unreleased/partially-leaked report produced by Copenhagen Economics at the start of the year.

The report apparently suggests GDP 7% less or growth 7% less in the event of a hard Brexit/WTO Brexit.

Its published on both Copenhagen Economics website and the website of the client department.

mkdon

but to stick to the topic at hand how would this in turn affect house prices........

noodler

mkdon wrote: »

but to stick to the topic at hand how would this in turn affect house prices........

No thanks.

Do your own research OP. Is it a college project your doing or do you work for the media?

mkdon

here here... just trying to keep the relevance of the topic on track

portcrap

noodler wrote: »

No thanks.

Do your own research OP. Is it a college project your doing or do you work for the media?

What an odd thing to say on a public forum and on a specific thread you're already participating in.


Back to your question OP, it depends if the economic impact directly affects jobs and therefore disposal income. If the downturn can be largely absorbed by the economy without significant job losses, then it probably wouldn't have an affect on house prices.

Graham

mkdon wrote: »

but to stick to the topic at hand how would this in turn affect house prices........

Nobody has a bulls notion.

Now if there were no brexit, then still nobody would have a bulls notion.

mkdon

apart from a certain Eddie Hobbs ;
)