will house prices in dublin fall post brexit?

KevinCavan

The biggest danger is landlords leaving the market en masse, causing a collapse in house prices over night.

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KevinCavan wrote: »

The biggest danger is landlords leaving the market en masse, causing a collapse in house prices over night.

With rental yields at 10% plus why would they do that.

Moonjet

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

With rental yields at 10% plus why would they do that.

They won't, but even if they did - the thing driving up houses prices (demand) would remain exactly the same. Those tenants in the rental properties would need to live somewhere else. Whether a property is being rented or sold, it's still a single property that can accommodate X number of occupants. It could even have the opposite effect. Less rental properties on the market = more demand for rentals = higher rent = people forced to purchase instead as it's cheaper than renting = property prices increase.

4ensic15

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

With rental yields at 10% plus why would they do that.

They are leaving at the moment due to the burden of regulation and taxes. Rental properties are more efficiently used than owner occupied, so the best thing in the short term is to have the maximum number of rental properties possible.

UsBus

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Using bitcoin as any kind of reliable tracker of general
market performance is utterly ridiculous. Stock markets have been on massive bear run and are due a correction. Brexit is probably the trigger for it but it was inevitable. I just don't see these things as harbingers of a massive Irish property price collapse.

Stock market has been on a bull run the last few years. The bear market is setting in now. Trump's policy drove stocks even further through the roof. Brexit is not the reason stocks are wobbling. Price to earnings ratios are off the scale. With the trade tariffs undecided and the fed policy on interest rates, companies such as Faang stocks are very nervous. Debt borrowing on a lot of these stocks could have a drastic outcome for world markets. If negative sentiment kicks into gear on these, Brexit will be the least of Ireland's worries..

mkdon

there is a lot of student accomodation being build at moment


also another factor to consider is AIR bnb regulations

what impact if any are they likely to have on landlords and what not?

Mad_maxx

UsBus wrote: »

Stock market has been on a bull run the last few years. The bear market is setting in now. Trump's policy drove stocks even further through the roof. Brexit is not the reason stocks are wobbling. Price to earnings ratios are off the scale. With the trade tariffs undecided and the fed policy on interest rates, companies such as Faang stocks are very nervous. Debt borrowing on a lot of these stocks could have a drastic outcome for world markets. If negative sentiment kicks into gear on these, Brexit will be the least of Ireland's worries..

European stocks have been in a bear market for three years plus, emerging markets are cheaper than in 2007, only the usa has had a booming equity market, stocks broadly speaking are relatively cheap globally.even the usa has only risen about 8% annually since 2000

KevinCavan

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

With rental yields at 10% plus why would they do that.

Sorry that was tongue in cheek. Landlords are constantly bitching and moaning about how tough they have it on this website.

mkdon

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/the-rise-and-rise-of-house-prices-is-slowing-at-last-say-experts-37562679.html there ya have it experts have their say.....

4ensic15

mkdon wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/the-rise-and-rise-of-house-prices-is-slowing-at-last-say-experts-37562679.html there ya have it experts have their say.....

That is not proof of anything.

noodler

4ensic15 wrote: »

That is not proof of anything.

No mention of brexit

mkdon

noodler wrote: »

No mention of brexit

I assume they are including this in their estimations

runawaybishop

KevinCavan wrote: »

Sorry that was tongue in cheek. Landlords are constantly bitching and moaning about how tough they have it on this website.

Landlords are exiting the market. If they are making so much money why is that?

engiweirdo

runawaybishop wrote: »

KevinCavan wrote: »

Sorry that was tongue in cheek. Landlords are constantly bitching and moaning about how tough they have it on this website.

Landlords are exiting the market. If they are making so much money why is that?

Cashing in on assets that have grown in value having had someone else pay the mortgage for years. Or is there a hard luck story in here somewhere?

runawaybishop

engiweirdo wrote: »

Cashing in on assets that have grown in value having had someone else pay the mortgage for years. Or is there a hard luck story in here somewhere?

Nope, it's a straight forward question. Why aren't more landlords replacing them if it is so lucrative?

engiweirdo

runawaybishop wrote: »

engiweirdo wrote: »

Cashing in on assets that have grown in value having had someone else pay the mortgage for years. Or is there a hard luck story in here somewhere?

Nope, it's a straight forward question. Why aren't more landlords replacing them if it is so lucrative?

Ballax is tore out of the market now. Landlord A bought at 2010 prices, rented until now and sells at huge mark up. Unless prospective Landlord B has huge cash reserves, the mortgage would be many times larger and fewer people can even access the mortgage now.

The Irish cute hoor landlord is cashing in and being replaced by pension fund investment vehicles.

runawaybishop

engiweirdo wrote: »

Ballax is tore out of the market now. Landlord A bought at 2010 prices, rented until now and sells at huge mark up. Unless prospective Landlord B has huge cash reserves, the mortgage would be many times larger and fewer people can even access the mortgage now.

The Irish cute hoor landlord is cashing in and being replaced by pension fund investment vehicles.

But rents are going up and house prices are still on the rise. Plenty of people have the money to buy, as evidenced by the rammed open viewings. Landlords are exiting the market due to over regulation and 50% taxes.

That's not a sob story, or landlords playing the poor mouth. I'm sure they will make plenty of cash on the sale. It does mean however even less supply in an already ****ed market.

GingerLily

runawaybishop wrote: »

engiweirdo wrote: »

Ballax is tore out of the market now. Landlord A bought at 2010 prices, rented until now and sells at huge mark up. Unless prospective Landlord B has huge cash reserves, the mortgage would be many times larger and fewer people can even access the mortgage now.

The Irish cute hoor landlord is cashing in and being replaced by pension fund investment vehicles.

But rents are going up and house prices are still on the rise. Plenty of people have the money to buy, as evidenced by the rammed open viewings. Landlords are exiting the market due to over regulation and 50% taxes.

That's not a sob story, or landlords playing the poor mouth. I'm sure they will make plenty of cash on the sale. It does mean however even less supply in an already ****ed market.

Who will buy the houses?

Gumbo

engiweirdo wrote: »

Cashing in on assets that have grown in value having had someone else pay the mortgage for years. Or is there a hard luck story in here somewhere?

Someone else had paid for a service provided.
The LL has provided that service.

noodler

Landlord exits market means he sells the house.

Someone else's demand is taken care of.

runawaybishop

noodler wrote: »

Landlord exits market means he sells the house.

Someone else's demand is taken care of.

GingerLily wrote: »

Who will buy the houses?

Less people than were renting them. This is basic stuff.

GingerLily

runawaybishop wrote: »

noodler wrote: »

Landlord exits market means he sells the house.

Someone else's demand is taken care of.

GingerLily wrote: »

Who will buy the houses?

Less people than were renting them. This is basic stuff.

The people buying won't have to rent, so less renters too!

If house prices drop significantly then most landlords won't be selling,bi don't think there's going to be dramatic drop in house prices due to landlords themselves selling.

runawaybishop

GingerLily wrote: »

The people buying won't have to rent, so less renters too!.

Nope, rentals have higher density.

Franz Von Peppercorn

runawaybishop wrote: »

But rents are going up and house prices are still on the rise. Plenty of people have the money to buy, as evidenced by the rammed open viewings. Landlords are exiting the market due to over regulation and 50% taxes.

That's not a sob story, or landlords playing the poor mouth. I'm sure they will make plenty of cash on the sale. It does mean however even less supply in an already ****ed market.

The number of landlords != number of rental properties.

runawaybishop

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

The number of landlords != number of rental properties.

No, instead you will have REIT vulture funds snapping up blocks, evicting tenants to refurbish and relet at huge prices. Then like clockwork you can expect the maximum rent increase as soon as it is possible.

Does anyone who is blindly anti-landlord ever stop to actually think what the consequences of these policies are.

Redneck Culchie

House prices will not be falling in Dublin anytime soon. Most employment is now in the greater Dublin area. This means migration from rural Ireland to Dublin. There is mass immigration here. There is housing supply shortages.

Projections also state rural and border areas will be much more damaged by Brexit than Dublin. Latest CSO figures state already the border region is -3100 jobs the past 12 months. There is a booming economy in Dublin especially if you own property. Elsewhere things are much more grim. House prices may possibly fall in other counties.

mkdon

a lot of the new comers (the vast majority) to Dublin are not looking to buy though they are looking to rent so this needs to be considered

4ensic15

mkdon wrote: »

a lot of the new comers (the vast majority) to Dublin are not looking to buy though they are looking to rent so this needs to be considered

What proof have you of this?

Franz Von Peppercorn

runawaybishop wrote: »

No, instead you will have REIT vulture funds snapping up blocks, evicting tenants to refurbish and relet at huge prices. Then like clockwork you can expect the maximum rent increase as soon as it is possible.

Does anyone who is blindly anti-landlord ever stop to actually think what the consequences of these policies are.

REITs are landlords, you know.

I can’t speak for Ireland but I rented from a reit, or equivalent, over in the US. Worked out fine and they kept the rent below market in fact after the first raise because I was a good tenant. I didn’t have to worry about them selling the appartment and kicking me out, or giving the place to the niece, or deposits or any of that. The place was well maintained and secure.

And places rent at market prices.

Franz Von Peppercorn

4ensic15 wrote: »

What proof have you of this?

Because they don’t see themselves as permanent? Makes sense to me.

mkdon

we are swaying way off the topic here... how does this all fit into Brexit's influence on house prices in Dublin?

L1011

mkdon wrote: »

we are swaying way off the topic here...

Again, leave the modding to the moderators and use the Report Post function if you have problems.

runawaybishop

mkdon wrote: »

we are swaying way off the topic here... how does this all fit into Brexit's influence on house prices in Dublin?

Not really off topic, brexits influence on the market would be greater if we didn't have so many home grown influences.

runawaybishop

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

REITs are landlords, you know.

I can’t speak for Ireland

This is about Ireland's market. REITs are ramping up the prices. As much as people love to complain about greedy private landlords the vulture funds are far worse.

It's not a difficult concept, forcing landlords out of the market does not help overall supply.

4ensic15

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Because they don’t see themselves as permanent? Makes sense to me.

Making apparent sense is not proof.

Assetbacked

runawaybishop wrote: »

This is about Ireland's market. REITs are ramping up the prices. As much as people love to complain about greedy private landlords the vulture funds are far worse.

It's not a difficult concept, forcing landlords out of the market does not help overall supply.

And the big difference between REITs and private landlords is that REITs do not pay tax on their rental income whereas private landlords do.

Workers pay their rent to REITs who have international investors so essentially the wages being paid in Ireland are being sucked out of the economy via REITs with no tax taken from the government. It is shocking.

RayCun

runawaybishop wrote: »

This is about Ireland's market. REITs are ramping up the prices. As much as people love to complain about greedy private landlords the vulture funds are far worse.

Do you have evidence that this is the case?

runawaybishop

RayCun wrote: »

Do you have evidence that this is the case?

Evidence that a vulture fund isn't designed to absolutely maximise profits at every opportunity?

Unsurprisingly yes! IRES published a report where they stated their 25% profit growth last year was limited by the rent caps and their goal was to increase the rents where possible as limited by law.

Amirani

runawaybishop wrote: »

Evidence that a vulture fund isn't designed to absolutely maximise profits at every opportunity?

Unsurprisingly yes! IRES published a report where they stated their 25% profit growth last year was limited by the rent caps and their goal was to increase the rents where possible as limited by law.

That's not evidence that they're "ramping up" market prices.

Do you think that non-REIT landlords are keeping price growth to within 4% out of the goodness of their hearts or because that's the amount stipulated in law?

Amirani

Assetbacked wrote: »

And the big difference between REITs and private landlords is that REITs do not pay tax on their rental income whereas private landlords do.

How many businesses pay tax directly on their revenue?

runawaybishop

Amirani wrote: »

That's not evidence that they're "ramping up" market prices.

Do you think that non-REIT landlords are keeping price growth to within 4% out of the goodness of their hearts or because that's the amount stipulated in law?

No you are right, vulture funds try to make just enough to stay afloat and their main goal is to provide affordable housing

Seriously, it's a direct statement that they will increase the rent to the cap every time. Feel free to show evidence that REITs are lovely.

RayCun

runawaybishop wrote: »

Evidence that a vulture fund isn't designed to absolutely maximise profits at every opportunity?

While private landlords are in business to provide a service, and will keep rents as low as possible, even if it bankrupts them?

No.
You said

REITs are ramping up the prices. As much as people love to complain about greedy private landlords the vulture funds are far worse

Do you have evidence that REITs raise rents more than private landlords?

runawaybishop

RayCun wrote: »

While private landlords are in business to provide a service, and will keep rents as low as possible, even if it bankrupts them?

No.
You said


Do you have evidence that REITs raise rents more than private landlords?

Private landlords do not always raise the rent every year. You are on this forum long enough to have read plenty of threads from landlords stating they didn't raise the rent. Stop playing stupid games.

Here is IRES stating they will increase the rent every time
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/rents-set-to-keep-rising-state-s-biggest-private-landlord-says-1.3181207%3fmode=amp

Here is another REIT kicking a bunch of tenants out to refurbish, i.e raise the rent above the cap.
https://www.eveningecho.ie/corknews/Leeside-Apartments-tenants-face-eviction-after-landmark-ruling-fc97dbaa-5561-4822-aa8d-541ca0ca83e6-ds

You think REITs are good for the market - why?

Edit: actually do you even have a point, or are you just going to try and nitpick a different bit every time?

Amirani

runawaybishop wrote: »

No you are right, vulture funds try to make just enough to stay afloat and their main goal is to provide affordable housing

Why do you deliberately misrepresent what people say? I didn't say anything remotely like the above. You either have reading comprehension issues or you're just being snide.

Pointless trying to have any sort of discussion with you if you just regurgitate out someone's words into something they didn't say at all, so best of luck to you.

RayCun

runawaybishop wrote: »

Private landlords do not always raise the rent every year. You are on this forum long enough to have read plenty of threads from landlords stating they didn't raise the rent. Stop playing stupid games.

Here is IRES stating they will increase the rent every time
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/rents-set-to-keep-rising-state-s-biggest-private-landlord-says-1.3181207%3fmode=amp

The linked story doesn't say IRES will increase the rent every time. It says
"A statement released with the company’s half-year accounts on Wednesday shows Ires believes rents will continue rising....The company’s statement notes that it strives to increase rents as market conditions permit and subject to applicable laws."

Here is another REIT kicking a bunch of tenants out to refurbish, i.e raise the rent above the cap.
https://www.eveningecho.ie/corknews/Leeside-Apartments-tenants-face-eviction-after-landmark-ruling-fc97dbaa-5561-4822-aa8d-541ca0ca83e6-ds

Yeah, private landlords would never do anything like that :rolleyes:

runawaybishop wrote: »

You think REITs are good for the market - why?

Edit: actually do you even have a point, or are you just going to try and nitpick a different bit every time?

I'm not convinced REITs are bad for the market.

The profit motive is the same for private landlords and REITs.

Private landlords on here argue that they are more flexible, tenants of REITs have said that they have been reasonably flexible.

Private landlords on here regularly complain about the risks they are exposed to, and how this forces them to demand higher rents/deposits/other conditions. REITs can distribute those risks over more properties.

If your landlord has a single property, you might get more personal attention, or you might find them hard to reach because they have a full-time job, and you might find them weird to deal with because they don't treat it as a business. A landlord with a lot of properties (or a REIT) is likely to be professional.

REITs are more likely to rent out purpose-built property of reasonable standards. They are unlikely to put a bunkbed in a cupboard or a living room.

If there is a reason for renters to be worried that private landlords are being squeezed out by REITs, I haven't seen it yet.

runawaybishop

RayCun wrote: »

The linked story doesn't say IRES will increase the rent every time. It says
"A statement released with the company’s half-year accounts on Wednesday shows Ires believes rents will continue rising....The company’s statement notes that it strives to increase rents as market conditions permit and subject to applicable laws."



Yeah, private landlords would never do anything like that :rolleyes:



I'm not convinced REITs are bad for the market.

The profit motive is the same for private landlords and REITs.

Private landlords on here argue that they are more flexible, tenants of REITs have said that they have been reasonably flexible.

Private landlords on here regularly complain about the risks they are exposed to, and how this forces them to demand higher rents/deposits/other conditions. REITs can distribute those risks over more properties.

If your landlord has a single property, you might get more personal attention, or you might find them hard to reach because they have a full-time job, and you might find them weird to deal with because they don't treat it as a business. A landlord with a lot of properties (or a REIT) is likely to be professional.

REITs are more likely to rent out purpose-built property of reasonable standards. They are unlikely to put a bunkbed in a cupboard or a living room.

If there is a reason for renters to be worried that private landlords are being squeezed out by REITs, I haven't seen it yet.

That's more like it, thanks.

I do not agree that IRES's statement doesn't mean they won't increase the rent every time. I think on balance between professional private landlords and professional Reits that the REITs will lead to higher rent, for the reasons I outlined previously.

REITs have benefits for sure, but there should be a mix and current government policy is a policy that only REITs can absorb. The market is already fecked, forcing people out of it will not help rents. That's pretty much always been my point and I do not understand how people can be so blind to the consequences of current government policy. Both the current and previous housing minister made decisions that directly contributed to the current situation but people just focus on landlords and give the ministers a free ride

Franz Von Peppercorn

runawaybishop wrote: »

No you are right, vulture funds try to make just enough to stay afloat and their main goal is to provide affordable housing

Seriously, it's a direct statement that they will increase the rent to the cap every time. Feel free to show evidence that REITs are lovely.

That’s not what was asked. You were asked if the REITs are any different to small time landlords, who also increase their prices where possible in the market. We know that because they pretty much set the market price being most of the market for low.

runawaybishop

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

That’s not what was asked. You were asked if the REITs are any different to small time landlords, who also increase their prices where possible in the market. We know that because they pretty much set the market price being most of the market for low.

Private landlords do not universally increase the rent at every available opportunity

RayCun

runawaybishop wrote: »

Private landlords do not universally increase the rent at every available opportunity

Again, you haven't provided evidence that REITs will universally increase rent at every available opportunity.

You have linked to a story about one REIT which says they look to increase rent subject to legislation and market conditions. Something tells me you could find plenty of private landlords who would say exactly the same thing.

runawaybishop

RayCun wrote: »

Again, you haven't provided evidence that REITs will universally increase rent at every available opportunity.

You have linked to a story about one REIT which says they look to increase rent subject to legislation and market conditions. Something tells me you could find plenty of private landlords who would say exactly the same thing.

Seriously? The largest REIT in Ireland stated very cleary they would increase the rent every time, what else do you think 'subject to legislation' means?

Anyway it's grand, I'm done. Enjoy your rents, this level of market understanding shows you deserve them.