European Parliament Elections 2019

is_that_so

VG31 wrote: »

Maybe he has been "parachuted in", but Durkan has a lot of political experience. Walsh has nothing.

She went for EU election nomination and they chose her. Seemingly she has done a lot of community work as well. Echoes of Harkin right there.

Yurt2

New Generation. Fresh Voice. Zig & Zag. Biker Mice From Mars. Pogs. Remember Pogs?!?

is_that_so

Yurt! wrote: »

New Generation. Fresh Voice. Zig & Zag. Biker Mice From Mars. Pogs. Remember Pogs?!?

Millennial voters?

Zubeneschamali

Lukas Agreeable Ranch wrote: »

I'll be voting Green, and only Green, in the Euros.

I'll vote Green #1, but she won't get in, so next Labour, who won't get in either, so then I'll vote all the way down to help FG beat Renua, FF and SF, all the way to the bottom so that I can register that I'd rather have a Direct Democracy looper than the only person I will leave off the ballot:


Casey.

jm08

is_that_so wrote: »

She went for EU election nomination and they chose her. Seemingly she has done a lot of community work as well. Echoes of Harkin right there.

Somone on one of the political parties were saying that FG decided to push Walsh in Kildare because it was one of the most supportive counties of repealing the 8th and the Same Sex Marriage referendum.

charlie14

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I'll vote Green #1, but she won't get in, so next Labour, who won't get in either, so then I'll vote all the way down to help FG beat Renua, FF and SF, all the way to the bottom so that I can register that I'd rather have a Direct Democracy looper than the only person I will leave off the ballot:


Casey.

Casey will be getting nothing from me, but it will be interesting to see how many number 1`s and transfers he gets.
From the polls it certainly appears we are very much pro the EU at the moment, but as a candidate in the Presidential election he appeared to garnered support from voters, on areas that if they were asked in polls, very much kept their views to themselves until he raised them.

damowill

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I'll vote Green #1, but she won't get in, so next Labour, who won't get in either, so then I'll vote all the way down to help FG beat Renua, FF and SF, all the way to the bottom so that I can register that I'd rather have a Direct Democracy looper than the only person I will leave off the ballot:


Casey.

Do you think Saoirse McHughs performance on prime time was enough to catapult her into the race? She did extremely well, and got a lot of social media attention. She may not have done a 'Casey Presidential election moment' but it was significant nonetheless.

Zubeneschamali

charlie14 wrote: »

From the polls it certainly appears we are very much pro the EU at the moment.

Casey is trying to soak up anti EU protest votes in a constituency that already has Ming elected as an anti EU protest candidate and Matt Carthy from a party at best lukewarm on the EU. Both of those MEPs would be pro neutrality and anti EU army.


Not much left over for Casey there. On PP right now, Maria Walsh is 4/6, Brendan Smith 6/4 and Casey out at 11/4 for that 4th seat.

is_that_so

jm08 wrote: »

Somone on one of the political parties were saying that FG decided to push Walsh in Kildare because it was one of the most supportive counties of repealing the 8th and the Same Sex Marriage referendum.

It's also to redistribute that huge McGuinness FPV. She's really only campaigning in Meath, Louth and Monaghan now. If they can get the Walsh FPV up to around 14% then they will take two seats comfortably.

Fan of Netflix

Casey was 4-1 yesterday, must have been a bit of cash put on.

is_that_so

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Casey is trying to soak up anti EU protest votes in a constituency that already has Ming elected as an anti EU protest candidate and Matt Carthy from a party at best lukewarm on the EU. Both of those MEPs would be pro neutrality and anti EU army.


Not much left over for Casey there. On PP right now, Maria Walsh is 4/6, Brendan Smith 6/4 and Casey out at 11/4 for that 4th seat.

Ming will get transfers and Carthy should be fine as well. Smith was very poor on TV the other night. He's really not a great candidate.

For Forks Sake

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Casey was 4-1 yesterday, must have been a bit of cash put on.

Put on others maybe, he was 6th favourite @ 2/1 earlier in the week

Zubeneschamali

is_that_so wrote: »

Smith was very poor on TV the other night. He's really not a great candidate.

Say "Cheese"!

Zubeneschamali

is_that_so wrote: »

Ming will get transfers and Carthy should be fine as well.

I think both are very safe - my point is that if you want to vote for an anti-establishment anti-EU candidate in MNW, you have credible options in Ming and Carthy already. Why protest vote for Casey?

Fan of Netflix

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think both are very safe - my point is that if you want to vote for an anti-establishment anti-EU candidate in MNW, you have credible options in Ming and Carthy already. Why protest vote for Casey?

True but the field is crowded on the left, Casey has plenty of space on the right. The anti immigration, anti traveller populist stuff probably will go well with a lot of people. Carthy and Ming wouldn't support that.

is_that_so

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think both are very safe - my point is that if you want to vote for an anti-establishment anti-EU candidate in MNW, you have credible options in Ming and Carthy already. Why protest vote for Casey?

No argument form me. I've never thought Casey had a hope and I would be pretty surprised to see him anywhere near the business end of the count.

is_that_so

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

True but the field is crowded on the left, Casey has plenty of space on the right. The anti immigration, anti traveller populist stuff probably will go well with a lot of people. Carthy and Ming wouldn't support that.

But there are not enough votes out there especially as voters will revert to their more usual voting patterns.

4068ac1elhodqr

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Casey was 4-1 yesterday, must have been a bit of cash put on.

Still at 3.75 that's an overall drift, was at one point just about 1.75 to get a seat in M-NW.



Could he still do it? Perhaps.

is_that_so

damowill wrote: »

Do you think Saoirse McHughs performance on prime time was enough to catapult her into the race? She did extremely well, and got a lot of social media attention. She may not have done a 'Casey Presidential election moment' but it was significant nonetheless.

The Green vote is not strong outside urban areas. It could be as high as 12% in Dublin but 5% would be good elsewhere.

is_that_so

Delaney Prickly Skylight wrote: »

Still at 3.75 that's an overall drift, was at one point just about 1.75 to get a seat in M-NW.



Could he still do it? Perhaps.

Not unless he gets an awful lot of transfers and he looks a lot more like a FPV candidate and nothing else. 10% or under will not get him a seat.

robwen

Smith should do okay from the McGuinness surplus

ancapailldorcha

Mod: This is a forum for serious discussion. Please bear that in mind.

Zubeneschamali

robwen wrote: »

Smith should do okay from the McGuinness surplus

Last time McGuinness had just 6408 surplus after the 5th count.

It went:

834 Pat the Cope FF
665 Byrne FF
643 Carthy SF

and:

4266 Harkin Ind

There is no way Smith will do OK on McGuiness's surplus.

robwen

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Last time McGuinness had just 6408 surplus after the 5th count.

It went:

834 Pat the Cope FF
665 Byrne FF
643 Carthy SF

and:

4266 Harkin Ind

There is no way Smith will do OK on McGuiness's surplus.

She was a new candidate in the constituency last time out that's why she didn't poll aswell, she is obviously hoovering up a lot of FF votes this time out from around Monaghan Cavan & surrounding areas where Smith would be at his strongest I'd expect quiet a few of them to go back to Smith

Fan of Netflix

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Last time McGuinness had just 6408 surplus after the 5th count.

It went:

834 Pat the Cope FF
665 Byrne FF
643 Carthy SF

and:

4266 Harkin Ind

There is no way Smith will do OK on McGuiness's surplus.

2 questions


1. How do they decide which votes to redistribute as surplus?
2. Surprisingly low number of transfers from Ming voters to Matt Carthy? Any idea why?

robman60

robwen wrote: »

She was a new candidate in the constituency last time out that's why she didn't poll aswell, she is obviously hoovering up a lot of FF votes this time out from around Monaghan Cavan & surrounding areas where Smith would be at his strongest I'd expect quiet a few of them to go back to Smith

Lol what are you on about? Neither McGuinness nor Harkin were new candidates last time.

People keep looking for the FF vote in MNW, but the reality is Casey is probably taking more from them than the other parties, and more importantly their two candidates are completely hopeless.

is_that_so

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Last time McGuinness had just 6408 surplus after the 5th count.

It went:

834 Pat the Cope FF
665 Byrne FF
643 Carthy SF

and:

4266 Harkin Ind

There is no way Smith will do OK on McGuiness's surplus.

The other point here is that McGuinness got 28K of the Higgins preferences. Only Harkin got any real benefit from him otherwise.

nice_guy80

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

2 questions


1. How do they decide which votes to redistribute as surplus?
2. Surprisingly low number of transfers from Ming voters to Matt Carthy? Any idea why?

because Ming's voters aren't shinners?

is_that_so

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

2 questions


1. How do they decide which votes to redistribute as surplus?
2. Surprisingly low number of transfers from Ming voters to Matt Carthy? Any idea why?

1. Sampling I believe.
2. Ming had a surplus of about 200 when he made the quota so they wouldn't have bothered as they could make no material difference.

robwen

robman60 wrote: »

Lol what are you on about? Neither McGuinness nor Harkin were new candidates last time.

People keep looking for the FF vote in MNW, but the reality is Casey is probably taking more from them than the other parties, and more importantly their two candidates are completely hopeless.

Check your facts, McGuiness ran in the old Leinster constituency in the 04 & 09 Euro elections 2014 was her first time running in this constituency

is_that_so

robwen wrote: »

She was a new candidate in the constituency last time out that's why she didn't poll aswell, she is obviously hoovering up a lot of FF votes this time out from around Monaghan Cavan & surrounding areas where Smith would be at his strongest I'd expect quiet a few of them to go back to Smith

You mean it was a new constituency. She's likely to hoover votes up anywhere people are worried about Brexit. Most of the surplus will go to Walsh so it doesn't matter how Smith does out of it.

is_that_so

robwen wrote: »

Check your facts, McGuiness ran in the old Leinster constituency in the 04 & 09 Euro elections 2014 was her first time running in this constituency

As it was for everyone else so they were all "new" candidates, which makes it a pretty pointless fact.

robman60

robwen wrote: »

Check your facts, McGuiness ran in the old Leinster constituency in the 04 & 09 Euro elections 2014 was her first time running in this constituency

Sure by that definition none of the candidates was in before except Lynn Boylan I'm Dublin. The others have been redrawn.

I still think Casey has a chance if he can manage to get 1 or 2% more than he's polling. Could transfer from O'Dowd of renua and FHE I think, who will probably get around 5% between them. Smith will go close but I just think they haven't the votes for such bland candidates.

Fan of Netflix

Entire Army, their families and army veterans are voting against Fine Gael in protest. Should this have any impact? Unsure how many people that would be.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/defence-forces-personnel-voting-against-fine-gael-in-protest-over-pay-and-conditions-926040.html

robwen

is_that_so wrote: »

As it was for everyone else so they were all "new" candidates, which makes it a pretty pointless fact.

Oh look little point trying to discuss with folk here most of ye have your own agendas to push, going by this thread no one's voting for the 2 biggest parties in the state, FG & FF will have no one elected, goodluck tomor don't forget to vote early & vote often

is_that_so

robman60 wrote: »

Sure by that definition none of the candidates was in before except Lynn Boylan I'm Dublin. The others have been redrawn.

I still think Casey has a chance if he can manage to get 1 or 2% more than he's polling. Could transfer from O'Dowd of renua and FHE I think, who will probably get around 5% between them. Smith will go close but I just think they haven't the votes for such bland candidates.

O'Dowd will barely register and he's FG gene pool. Once they've sorted the McGuinness surplus I expect them to eliminate up to PBP chap at least, maybe including him. Ming will get votes from them as will Carthy. Not convinced about Casey's ability to attract transfers. Next to go will be Labour and Greens - not votes for Casey there and then finally and crucially for Smith his running mate. If Casey gets any of those he's sunk.

is_that_so

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Entire Army, their families and army veterans are voting against Fine Gael in protest. Should this have any impact? Unsure how many people that would be.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/defence-forces-personnel-voting-against-fine-gael-in-protest-over-pay-and-conditions-926040.html

Maybe in the locals, which is regularly the protest vote. EU constituencies are probably far too big to be too adversely affected.

is_that_so

robwen wrote: »

Oh look little point trying to discuss with folk here most of ye have your own agendas to push, going by this thread no one's voting for the 2 biggest parties in the state, FG & FF will have no one elected, goodluck tomor don't forget to vote early & vote often

In this constituency FG may get 2 and FF may get none. I think most people agree that Ming & Carthy should be OK.

eagle eye

I'm not voting for them but I think people will be surprised at the Sinn Fein vote.
I travel all around the constituency with the exception of Kildare, Meath and Louth. A hell of a lot of people told me they are giving Carthy their no.1
Now that's just me counting numbers in my head but a hell of a lot of people have said that. I would not be surprised if Carthy topped the poll.

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm not voting for them but I think people will be surprised at the Sinn Fein vote. They could be in the running for two seats. I travel all around the constituency with the exception of Kildare, Meath and Louth. A lot of people are talking about voting Sinn Fein 1 and 2.
Now that's just me counting numbers in my head but a hell of a lot of people have said that. I would not be surprised if Carthy topped the poll.

Two seats? Neat trick if they pull that off, considering they are only running one candidate in each constituency.

James Brown

The SD's make it so hard. I keep hoping.
Saw this today. Its brave but foolish. It may appeal to a younger design interested group but such a bad idea IMO.

Faugheen

is_that_so wrote: »

1. Sampling I believe.
2. Ming had a surplus of about 200 when he made the quota so they wouldn't have bothered as they could make no material difference.

It's slightly different for a first count surplus re: how it's distributed. However holds the surplus has all of their FPVs sorted depending on the number 2.

So say for example Mairead McGuinness gets 180,000 FPV the Quota is 120,000. That leaves a surplus of 60,000. They'll sort all of her FPVs by whoever is the second preference.

When the sorting is done, if half of McGuinness' FPV are going to Maria Walsh at number 2, then half of the surplus (30,000 in this case) will be allocated to Walsh.

If a quarter of McGuinness is going to Matt Carthy, then a quarter of the surplus (15,000) will go to him and so on.

I understand that might make zero sense.

is_that_so

Faugheen wrote: »

It's slightly different for a first count surplus re: how it's distributed. However holds the surplus has all of their FPVs sorted depending on the number 2.

So say for example Mairead McGuinness gets 180,000 FPV the Quota is 120,000. That leaves a surplus of 60,000. They'll sort all of her FPVs by whoever is the second preference.

When the sorting is done, if half of McGuinness' FPV are going to Maria Walsh at number 2, then half of the surplus (30,000 in this case) will be allocated to Walsh.

If a quarter of McGuinness is going to Matt Carthy, then a quarter of the surplus (15,000) will go to him and so on.

I understand that might make zero sense.

No it's perfectly clear.

Macha

I remember Claire Byrne of the Green Part had an explainer somewhere that made sense to me as the time..

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

O'Dowd will barely register and he's FG gene pool. Once they've sorted the McGuinness surplus I expect them to eliminate up to PBP chap at least, maybe including him. Ming will get votes from them as will Carthy. Not convinced about Casey's ability to attract transfers. Next to go will be Labour and Greens - not votes for Casey there and then finally and crucially for Smith his running mate. If Casey gets any of those he's sunk.

I would doubt Casey getting many transfers from Smith`s running mate. I wouldn`t rule out Smith getting some of the McGuinness surplus due to geographical factors though.Maybe not a lot, but could be enough to push him over the line.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

I would doubt Casey getting many transfers from Smith`s running mate. I wouldn`t rule out Smith getting some of the McGuinness surplus due to geographical factors though.Maybe not a lot, but could be enough to push him over the line.

Smith's problem is that he seems to be very low on FPV support but he's been pretty unimpressive. I don't think he'll get that many from McGuinness. Walsh potentially has a huge pile waiting for her, which would leave her too far ahead of him. The Casey thing I include as an example of FF getting it wrong. I really don't think he's in anyway transfer friendly.

blanch152

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm not voting for them but I think people will be surprised at the Sinn Fein vote.
I travel all around the constituency with the exception of Kildare, Meath and Louth. A hell of a lot of people told me they are giving Carthy their no.1
Now that's just me counting numbers in my head but a hell of a lot of people have said that. I would not be surprised if Carthy topped the poll.

I would really be surprised if Carthy topped the poll.

If that turns out to be the case, it could only be because FG have split the vote evenly between their two candidates. That could well give FG two seats.

Loafing Oaf

Cuffe has gone in to 1/5 with PP, only slightly longer than Boylan and Andrews now. South seems to have tightened up though, very little between Wallace O'Sullivan and Byrne for (presumably) the last seat.

is_that_so

blanch152 wrote: »

I would really be surprised if Carthy topped the poll.

If that turns out to be the case, it could only be because FG have split the vote evenly between their two candidates. That could well give FG two seats.

If support levels are true it will guarantee two seats. Think Carthy will come in mid-teens, probably ahead of Ming. McGuinness I'd expect to be above 20%.

is_that_so

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Cuffe has gone in to 1/5 with PP, only slightly longer than Boylan and Andrews now. South seems to have tightened up though, very little between Wallace O'Sullivan and Byrne for (presumably) the last seat.

All about being far enough ahead of the pack. Last seats may well be decided below the quotas.