European Parliament Elections 2019

Galwayguy35

Varadkar isn't ruling out a GE in the autumn either.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

It still doesn't have to be brilliant, just enough to put her ahead for a final seat. And that is a really tiny tally sample.

If the Red C exit poll and Flanagan`s figures are accurate then it looks like that 40% from the McGuinness surplus would be doing well to leave Walsh level with McHugh.

Danzy

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Particularly coming so soon after the killing of Lyra McKee by dissident Republicans in Derry.

That is fairly slack using her death to advance your own agenda.

is_that_so

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Heard on the news there that Claire Daly is in with a good shout of getting a seat, I wonder what the Europeans will make of her screeching at them for the next 5 years if she gets in.

Might have to eat my words if Walsh gets in.

I think the message that is going through, via RTE anyway, is that possible transfer patterns are just not clear at all. There are just snippets of data on them via patchy and tiny tallies. Cuffe and Fitzgerald seem to be certainties as do McGuinness and Kelly. After that there may be a three day counts! Andrews, Daly and Boylan in it in Dublin and any 3/5 in MNW.

An Ciarraioch

In "European populist watch", the Finns Party appears to be virtually stagnant since 2014:

http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132693323246899205

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

If the Red C exit poll and Flanagan`s figures are accurate then it looks like that 40% from the McGuinness surplus would be doing well to leave Walsh level with McHugh.

Yep but it's a really small sample and that puts Ming under pressure. Meanwhile, Carthy seems to think his vote is lower than the exit poll. We really need an actual count to see where everyone is starting from.

Nody

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Visuals for Germany and Greece:

Mera25 is the Greek branch of Varoufakis's pan-European party.

Finland had big advances by the green party as well; looks like there might be a green wave in Europe in general.

is_that_so

Nody wrote: »

Finland had big advances by the green party as well; looks like there might be a green wave in Europe in general.

So much better than a wave moving towards right wing rabble-rousers.

Calina

It will be interesting to see how EN lang media pitch it though. Already you can see them struggling with the voters have not done the populist/far right act they were building headlines.

An Ciarraioch

Calina wrote: »

It will be interesting to see how EN lang media pitch it though. Already you can see them struggling with the voters have not done the populist/far right act they were building headlines.

Ah, you read Matthew Goodwin's tweet as well, I see! Britain Elects to give a seat projection at 7.

Calina

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Ah, you read Matthew Goodwin's tweet as well, I see! Britain Elects to give a seat projection at 7.

Here is ARD from ca a half an hour ago. https://mobile.twitter.com/markuspreiss/status/1132681384122826752

jm08

markodaly wrote: »

For the people who get a hard-on for our old fashioned voting system, we should reform it so that we can include early voting and online/postal voting a week out from the election.

The idea we have to wait a week for a result is a pathetic tbh.

Actually, its very educational watching the vote count. Probably why Irish people actually understand how the PR system works.

Nody

is_that_so wrote: »

So much better than a wave moving towards right wing rabble-rousers.

NPD (German extreme right party, right of AfD) is losing their one seat according to preliminary exit polls.

An Ciarraioch

Bulgaria, Lithuania and Malta appear to be the only countries where turnout fell:

http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132701456618917889

Coillte_Bhoy

Eric Cartman wrote: »

yeah, really have to ask some questions about those exit polls so. Seems to be doing pretty badly as the count goes on ,

Such as?

is_that_so

Nody wrote: »

NPD (German extreme right party, right of AfD) is losing their one seat according to preliminary checkout polls.

Yep I know them. They used to send me "literature" when I lived in Germany. Any time they are losing the world is a better place!

Thrashssacre

Exit polls for France, Romania and Spain at 7pm.

Nody

Thrashssacre wrote: »

Exit polls for France, Romania and Spain at 7pm.

Can add Sweden with a first preliminary result at 10pm.

is_that_so

Eric Cartman wrote: »

yeah, really have to ask some questions about those exit polls so. Seems to be doing pretty badly as the count goes on ,

Exit polls are +/- 3% and all they can do is predict FPVs and give an indication of where people are. The likes of FG, FF and Ming we know get transfers. Carthy has done in a limited way. McHugh & even Casey are newbies in terms of predicting transfers. I think Casey is toxic but couldn't guess at what she might get as the Greens have never been here before. One possibility is that she's predominantly FPVs and will fall away on transfers or she could be a Harkin type of candidate picking up transfers all the way If she's the latter she will be elected.

Jamie2k9

LePenn beat Macron in France 25-26% to 19-21%. Others put it 24% v 22.5%.

Nody

French media are not allowed to post closing polls until the voting is over; Belgian media however has no such issues :P
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132708943820709890

UK predictions
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132709279679602689

If the UK predictions come true or close to it it simply shows how divided UK currently is.

An Ciarraioch

Nody wrote: »

French media are not allowed to post closing polls until the voting is over; Belgian media however has no such issues :P
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132708943820709890

UK predictions
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132709279679602689

If the UK predictions come true or close to it it simply shows how divided UK currently is.

Bizarrely, Brexit would win the exact same seat tally as UKIP in 2014!

Hard Brexit: 25 (assuming DUP elected tomorrow)
Soft Brexit: 24-25 (UUP still in running)
Remain: 23-24

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1132712604005294082

JxC is the party of Carles Puigdemont, the ex-President of Catalonia, while AR is a left-wing alliance of Basque and Catalan nationalists.

Nody

Danske folkparti (the rightwing Danish party) looks like they are going to drop 3 out of 4 seats based on exit polls and Vox in Spain as noted above did worse than in the general election. The expected right wing wave in the EU elections is definitively looking to come up very short of expectations.

robman60

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Bizarrely, Brexit would win the exact same seat tally as UKIP in 2014!

Hard Brexit: 25 (assuming DUP elected tomorrow)
Soft Brexit: 24-25 (UUP still in running)
Remain: 23-24

Brexit Party doing slightly less well than they were polling as places with a high leave vote had low turnout this time, it seems.

Have a bet on Lib Dems getting 15-19.99% so hopefully the polls play out.

badtoro

is_that_so wrote: »

Eric Cartman wrote: »

yeah, really have to ask some questions about those exit polls so. Seems to be doing pretty badly as the count goes on ,

Exit polls are +/- 3% and all they can do is predict FPVs and give an indication of where people are. The likes of FG, FF and Ming we know get transfers. Carthy has done in a limited way. McHugh & even Casey are newbies in terms of predicting transfers. I think Casey is toxic but couldn't guess at what she might get as the Greens have never been here before. One possibility is that she's predominantly FPVs and will fall away on transfers or she could be a Harkin type of candidate picking up transfers all the way If she's the latter she will be elected.

Myself & herself gave McHugh 2. Surprise to me, am a farmer and I really don't trust the GP. After no. 1 I was more thinking how do I make life difficult for Casey, FF , and others who might threaten the candidates i wanted there.

Leonard Hofstadter

Nody wrote: »

Danske folkparti (the rightwing Danish party) looks like they are going to drop 3 out of 4 seats based on exit polls and Vox in Spain as noted above did worse than in the general election. The expected right wing wave in the EU elections is definitively looking to come up very short of expectations.

Fingers crossed it is. Of all the threads to our prosperity and freedom in Europe, the far-right is easily the biggest (with the far-left not far behind). I am not one for overdoing the political correctness, but I detest the way parties like this want to strip away human rights and their lack of decency and compassion towards others. I hate their simplistic solutions to complex problems and I especially hate the way they are being financed by the likes of Bannon and co yet claim to be on the side of the ordinary voter.

I miss the olden days of the sensible centre left and centre right parties along with the centrist liberals being the dominant parties.

Nody

Preliminary numbers for the blocks:

EPP (Conservatives) -173
S&D (Social democrats) - 147
Alde (liberals) - 102
EFA (greens) - 71
ECR (Right EU skeptic) - 58
ENF (Right wing populist) 57
EFDD (Conservatives EU skeptic) - 56
GUE/NGL (Left wing) - 42
Other / disbanded groups - 45

FrancieBrady

badtoro wrote: »

Myself & herself gave McHugh 2. Surprise to me, am a farmer and I really don't trust the GP. After no. 1 I was more thinking how do I make life difficult for Casey, FF , and others who might threaten the candidates i wanted there.

Her slap down of Casey on the debate may have decided a lot of voters to put her high up the ballot.

Will be an interesting part of the count.

vladmydad

So this is what people for : taxes taxes taxes. An Anti development party. Bye bye metro.