European Parliament Elections 2019

For Forks Sake

Inquitus wrote: »

SF in trouble?

You'd have to imagine that as the SOL/PBP, SD candidates and to a lesser extent LAB and Higgins are eliminated that they'd be transferring to Daly far more.

Inquitus

For Forks Sake wrote: »

You'd have to imagine that as they SOL/PBP, SD and to a lesser extent LAB candidates ate eliminated that they'd be transferring to Daly far more.

Cuffe, Fitzgerald, Andrews and last of all Daly into the cold storage Brexit seat you'd think.

For Forks Sake

Count 2 in

Mark Mullan eliminated.

FrancieBrady

Daly hasdone the expected damage to Boylan's vote. She looks home and dry.

Cork Boy 53

You would have to wonder if Mary Lou could be under pressure to stay as SF leader. If it turns out that Lynn Boylan loses her MEP seat in Dublin combined with the hammering their candidates are taking in the local elections and then factor in Liadh Ni Riada`s poor showing in the Presidential contest last autumn, there could very soon be a leadership challenge I would think.

normanoffside

The Exit poll had Cuffe on 23, actually polled 5.5% lower.

FrancieBrady

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

You would have to wonder if Mary Lou could be under pressure to stay as SF leader. If it turns out that Lynn Boylan loses her MEP seat in Dublin combined with the hammering their candidates are taking in the local elections and then factor in Liadh Ni Riada`s poor showing in the Presidential contest last autumn, there could very soon be a leadership challenge I would think.

I would think it is a certainty. First locals in 5 that they haven't increased their vote. That would be huge for a party that prides itself on it's work at local level.

Inquitus

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

You would have to wonder if Mary Lou could be under pressure to stay as SF leader. If it turns out that Lynn Boylan loses her MEP seat in Dublin combined with the hammering their candidates are taking in the local elections and then factor in Liadh Ni Riada`s poor showing in the Presidential contest last autumn, there could very soon be a leadership challenge I would think.

Aye SF getting a pounding in their first election under Mary Lou, a lot of internal issues they have created as issues for themselves, the whip for the abortion referendum, the gender balance initiative, the bullying scandal etc. etc. Personally while not a SF voter I think their stance on abortion was admirable and trying to put gender balance on the ballot paper is also a worthy concept, but it seems to have gone down terribly badly with their own base. Also a lot more competition for the left wing vote in general.

Plus last time they had the Water charges as a rallying call, this time their policy platform has been a bit nebulous.

Eric Cartman

Gemma and ben gilroy both beat rita harrold, delighted. None of them are going anywhere

Christy42

After all the talk here about the terrors of the green party it is interesting to note that Cuffe was focusing on housing and improving commute times in Dublin.

Made the point that shorter commutes is less pollution and better quality of life.

Stephen15

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Gemma and ben gilroy both beat rita harrold, delighted. None of them are going anywhere

And Eilish Ryan of the Workers Party and those two got on the RTE debate so clearly RTE have a left wing bias.

Coillte_Bhoy

is_that_so wrote: »

A third of votes counted in MNW and it seems that McGuinness has 75,000 votes, Ming & Carthy 40,000 each, Walsh 36,000,Casey on 30,000, McHugh on 28,000, Smith on 20,000 and Rabbitte on 14,000. Quota expected to be around 120,000, which is about 10K lower than 2014. She could have a considerable surplus. Counting will adjourn at 10 p.m. and first count now not expected until tomorrow afternoon.

Whats the source for this? You dont have tally people watching the actual counting and afaik there is no complete tally for MNW

Just Saying

There are a couple of very interesting points to make regarding the Dublin first count.

Firstly the size of the over estimation of the Green party vote in the exit poll.It had Cuffe on 23% which is 5.5% more than what he got.If this is replicated in the other 2 constituencies then the Greens might not get any more seats.

Secondly with the number of left leaning candidates to be eliminated I think Clare Daly will take the third seat which would leave Andrews and Boylan for the cold storage seat.Andrews should hold on but I would think the gap will narrow between them.

Larbre34

Christy42 wrote: »

After all the talk here about the terrors of the green party it is interesting to note that Cuffe was focusing on housing and improving commute times in Dublin.

Made the point that shorter commutes is less pollution and better quality of life.

And also that high energy rated dwellings reduce fuel poverty.

To be honest my own 'green' efforts are purely selfish, low CO2 and high MPG car as fuel is expensive and oil is getting more scarce, insulation improvements in the house cos ditto for natural gas and also a pious recycler cos black bin lifts are pricey. The fact that this in small ways helps the environment is a good thing but I'd do it anyway. This is where the green agenda worldwide must go, the economic no-brainer.

Just Saying

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Whats the source for this? You dont have tally people watching the actual counting and afaik there is no complete tally for MNW

I saw in on the RTE website but it has been taken down.

Eric Cartman

I cant wait to see when either gilroy or gemma is excluded and how much the other one gets on transfers, the loon count might keep one of them in it for a few more counts.

Spanish Eyes

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

You would have to wonder if Mary Lou could be under pressure to stay as SF leader. If it turns out that Lynn Boylan loses her MEP seat in Dublin combined with the hammering their candidates are taking in the local elections and then factor in Liadh Ni Riada`s poor showing in the Presidential contest last autumn, there could very soon be a leadership challenge I would think.

SF tried to woo the middle class vote. They failed miserably. Imagine supporting Travellers when everyone knows the majority of them (there are notable exceptions) are knuckle draggers destroying our countryside with criminality and drugs, feuds, and murders etc.

And their constant moaning about the housing issue is lost now. The people they are trying to woo are paying for everything, but SF want those who pay for little to be the nub of the support of the middle classes. What a word, but hey, those who go out to work let us say.

Anyway, it failed. They tried to ditch the republican rent a crowd. Sorry it didn't work for the cohort they were trying to attract.

Voting Green was a safe alternative to those who wanted the incumbents in power to take note. And so it has come to pass.

Now in fairness FFG are not without sin in this regard either. They also deserve a bit of a kicking, but they know what way the wind is blowing, and since they are in power, things might change for those who get up early in the morning and pay for everything.

The times they are a changing hopefully soon. It is beyond time for this to happen.

charlie14

Just Saying wrote: »

There are a couple of very interesting points to make regarding the Dublin first count.

Firstly the size of the over estimation of the Green party vote in the exit poll.It had Cuffe on 23% which is 5.5% more than what he got.If this is replicated in the other 2 constituencies then the Greens might not get any more seats.

Secondly with the number of left leaning candidates to be eliminated I think Clare Daly will take the third seat which would leave Andrews and Boylan for the cold storage seat.Andrews should hold on but I would think the gap will narrow between them.

Possible but with Andrews on 14% of FPV and Boylan on 10% it looks to big a gap. Especially with the drop in the SF vote in the local election as well in Dublin it is difficult to see where she will get the transfers from as they were not transfer friendly even when they had good election days.

Ridiculous that in 2019 there isn't a count in the Six Counties on Sundays for religious reasons. You can bet that in Finchley they count votes on a Sunday.

Why is there no counting on a Sunday?
Traditionally, votes have not been counted on Sundays because of observance by Northern Ireland's Christian population of keeping the Sabbath as a day of rest....

So while the rest of Europe will start counting after the last polls close at 22:00 BST on Sunday, Northern Ireland's count doesn't begin until Monday. (Source: 'Why do votes take so long to count in Northern Ireland?')

blanch152

Just Saying wrote: »

There are a couple of very interesting points to make regarding the Dublin first count.

Firstly the size of the over estimation of the Green party vote in the exit poll.It had Cuffe on 23% which is 5.5% more than what he got.If this is replicated in the other 2 constituencies then the Greens might not get any more seats.

Secondly with the number of left leaning candidates to be eliminated I think Clare Daly will take the third seat which would leave Andrews and Boylan for the cold storage seat.Andrews should hold on but I would think the gap will narrow between them.

Yeah, have to agree with this. Andrews will pick up enough to hold off Boylan.

Big loss for SF.

An Ciarraioch

Looking highly probable that the Greens will win more MEPs than the Tories.

Hurrache

Christy42 wrote: »

After all the talk here about the terrors of the green party it is interesting to note that Cuffe was focusing on housing and improving commute times in Dublin.

Made the point that shorter commutes is less pollution and better quality of life.

It's coming up non stop since yesterday. It's a combination of stupidity, ignorance and hysteria that Green policies are just carbon taxes. It's obvious that none of those people read their policies.

Harry Palmr

% of UK vote

Brex 38.7
Lab 19.4
LD 16.8
Greens 8.1
Con 6.8
Ukip 6.2
Others 4

Eric Cartman

Harry Palmr wrote: »

% of UK vote

Brex 38.7
Lab 19.4
LD 16.8
Greens 8.1
Con 6.8
Ukip 6.2
Others 4

that is an insane win for farage.

robman60

Harry Palmr wrote: »

% of UK vote

Brex 38.7
Lab 19.4
LD 16.8
Greens 8.1
Con 6.8
Ukip 6.2
Others 4

Where are you getting this? Thought the counts are still just coming in. I'm watching BBC now and LD are showing up higher than that?

Just Saying

charlie14 wrote: »

Possible but with Andrews on 14% of FPV and Boylan on 10% it looks to big a gap. Especially with the drop in the SF vote in the local election as well in Dublin it is difficult to see where she will get the transfers from as they were not transfer friendly even when they had good election days.

The point I was making was more that I think Daly will pass Andrews leaving him 4th.Its difficult to see Boylan bridging the gap to Andrews but she could narrow it.

In Midlands NW it looks as if the exit poll over estimated the Green vote and under estimated Ming.Most likely result is McG,Flanagan,Carthy,Walsh.

Harry Palmr

robman60 wrote: »

Where are you getting this? Thought the counts are still just coming in. I'm watching BBC now and LD are showing up higher than that?

Guardian live blog, 3 regions have got the count complete Graun only showing two right now. Obviously there will be changes esp when Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland finally get round to opening some boxes.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/26/european-election-latest-results-2019-uk-england-scotland-wales-ni-eu-parliament

Sierra Oscar

Just Saying wrote: »

The point I was making was more that I think Daly will pass Andrews leaving him 4th.Its difficult to see Boylan bridging the gap to Andrews but she could narrow it.

In Midlands NW it looks as if the exit poll over estimated the Green vote and under estimated Ming.Most likely result is McG,Flanagan,Carthy,Walsh.

Major upset on the cards if Saoirse McHugh doesn't take a seat. RTÉ had effectively declared her elected yesterday with their commentary!

Spanish Eyes

The Uk is going madder by the minute. Well many of them are. I just don't understand it at all..

Can someone explain why a No Deal exit is Nirvana for these people?

Eric Cartman

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Major upset on the cards if Saoirse McHugh doesn't take a seat. RTÉ had effectively declared her elected yesterday with their commentary!

it appears by preliminary tallies that she's not done well at all , even standing below casey and very transfer toxic it seems.