European Parliament Elections 2019

FrancieBrady

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Major upset on the cards if Saoirse McHugh doesn't take a seat. RTÉ had effectively declared her elected yesterday with their commentary!

Are they announcing a first count tonight, do you know?

Eric Cartman

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are they announcing a first count tonight, do you know?

all gone home it seems, resumes tomorrow at 9

Harry Palmr

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The Uk is going madder by the minute. Well many of them are. I just don't understand it at all..

Can someone explain why a No Deal exit is Nirvana for these people?

They don't really know what a No Deal exit actually means.

The Lib Dems and Greens should merge LDs top poll in Corbyns own constituency and nearly match Brexit in Theresa Mays.

Capt'n Midnight

For Forks Sake wrote: »

You'd have to imagine that as the SOL/PBP, SD candidates and to a lesser extent LAB and Higgins are eliminated that they'd be transferring to Daly far more.

It may depend on the elimination order of the three a step behind. But she looks safe given how SF don't attract transfers that well and how the Greens may take transfers now they are voter friendly again.


Count 6 just in
https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/results/?app=true#/european/dublin

most transfers went to
Gemma O'Doherty, IND + 857
Barry Andrews, FF + 205
Ciarán Cuffe, GP + 182

Next to go is Megaphone Rita.
Ben of the Hurley is one vote behind Gemma of the transfers

Sierra Oscar

Live spreadsheet for Dublin count here for anyone interested.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1132771252769296384

Spanish Eyes

Harry Palmr wrote: »

They don't really know what a No Deal exit actually means

True. There are so many versions of Brexit out there right now, no one will be satisfied with any result really.

Still... it is bizarre that people have not informed themselves. Must be fanaticism and the thrill of the chase or something. They will not reap any reward for this, nor will anyone else.

Easy for me to say I know, but honestly, that FPTP system has stifled so much political involvement that many are now in thrall by someone, anyone who doesn't wear a red or blue rosette. Maybe that's why a new kid on the block has enlivened them. I dunno.

Brussels Sprout

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Can someone explain why a No Deal exit is Nirvana for these people?

Given the age profile of most of their voters they've been poisoned by The Daily Express over the years to think that the EU is a diabolical institution that is holding the UK back from being the great empire that it once was. Also they won't actually have to live with the long term consequences of their reckless actions.

GalwayMark

It’s about keeping their money stashed in tax havens without proper oversight and their ‘wealth’ kept while not paying their fair share.

Jamie2k9

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

True. There are so many versions of Brexit out there right now, no one will be satisfied with any result really.

Still... it is bizarre that people have not informed themselves. Must be fanaticism and the thrill of the chase or something. They will not reap any reward for this, nor will anyone else.

Easy for me to say I know, but honestly, that FPTP system has stifled so much political involvement that many are now in thrall by someone, anyone who doesn't wear a red or blue rosette. Maybe that's why a new kid on the block has enlivened them. I dunno.

No deal fallout is been way way overplayed and people can see through it. May's deal was terrible.

Spanish Eyes

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Given the age profile of most of their voters they've been poisoned by The Daily Express over the years to think that the EU is a diabolical institution that is holding the UK back from being the great empire that it once was. Also they won't actually have to live with the long term consequences of their reckless actions.

That's gas, I was in Casares in Southern Spain for a few weeks there, and it is quite near a Brit enclave on the coast. We went down for a nosey and to walk on the beach. Normally it is heaving with Brits. Not many around.

Seems that the expats are returning to UK en masse now in case Brexit precludes them from Spanish medical care. That and the falling pound relative to their fixed income pensions. Was interesting to see. And many of them voted for Brexit too. LOL.

Boom__Boom

After the 6th Count in Dublin

Andrews has picked up 493 votes in transfers
Daly has picked up 439 votes in transfers
Boylan has picked up 314 votes in transfers

Andrews is on 51,913
Daly is on 42,744
Boylan is on 39,701

Most likely scenario looks to be Andrews in 3, Daly 4 and Boylan 5.
Maybe Daly might over-take Andrews but he is doing fairly solid on transfers so far.

A key thing thing to remember is Boylan's FPV went from 83,264 to 39,387.
With that sort of decline in her first preferences and the way the early count transfers have gone it's almost impossible to make a case for her to have any chance of keeping her seat.

Larbre34

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

No deal fallout is been way way overplayed and people can see through it. May's deal was terrible.

Has it? Do you have a time machine? Ask the newly unemployed staff of British Steel how much they feel this period of turmoil has been 'overplayed'...

LuckyLloyd

Considering that there is a differentiation between the 3rd and “4th” seats if Boylan is eliminated in 5th will her votes be redistributed between Andrews / Daly?

Jamie2k9

Larbre34 wrote: »

Has it? Do you have a time machine? Ask the newly unemployed staff of British Steel how much they feel this period of turmoil has been 'overplayed'...

Yes really. More people employed in the UK than ever currently. What evidence can you put to me that a no deal will be bad besides the scaremongering that Brits will starve to death, economic will crash etc

The steel has nothing to do with Brexit, it was on life support long before Brexit and the UK Government closed the money tap.

Sierra Oscar

Listening to Marian Harkin on RTÉ. Sounds like the exit poll made a balls of Midlands North-West, good news for Ming. Funny how RTÉ are moving on from the exit poll issue without any discussion.

Francie Barrett

Boom__Boom wrote: »

After the 6th Count in Dublin

Andrews has picked up 493 votes in transfers
Daly has picked up 439 votes in transfers
Boylan has picked up 314 votes in transfers

Andrews is on 51,913
Daly is on 42,744
Boylan is on 39,701

Most likely scenario looks to be Andrews in 3, Daly 4 and Boylan 5.
Maybe Daly might over-take Andrews but he is doing fairly solid on transfers so far.

A key thing thing to remember is Boylan's FPV went from 83,264 to 39,387.
With that sort of decline in her first preferences and the way the early count transfers have gone it's almost impossible to make a case for her to have any chance of keeping her seat.

Boylan is absolutely gone. There is no way she can be behind Daly at this stage and retain her seat.

eagle eye

Hurrache wrote:

It's coming up non stop since yesterday. It's a combination of stupidity, ignorance and hysteria that Green policies are just carbon taxes. It's obvious that none of those people read their policies.

You are not getting it. Part of their thing is carbon TAXES. TAXES are the issue, people are fed up of more TAXES.

golfball37

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Considering that there is a differentiation between the 3rd and “4th” seats if Boylan is eliminated in 5th will her votes be redistributed between Andrews / Daly?

Yes - they are doing two separate scenarios for 3 and 4 seats I believe. The 72k quota is for 4 seats. I think Boylan transfers will get Daly ahead of andrews on female grounds alone

Kh1993

Labour just got more transfers than SF in that last count. Can’t see Boylan having any chance based on that.

Edit scratch that; read it wrong. It was the Workers Party

marno21

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Yes really. More people employed in the UK than ever currently. What evidence can you put to me that a no deal will be bad besides the scaremongering that Brits will starve to death, economic will crash etc

A lot of economic activity recently in the UK accounted for by companies stockpiling for this no deal utopia you speak of. The lack of capital investment by UK companies along with the Brexit uncertainty causing suppressed demand from Europe will begin to start showing now and reversing it will not be easy or fast.

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

The steel has nothing to do with Brexit, it was on life support long before Brexit and the UK Government closed the money tap.

It was a campaign claim of prominent Brexiteer Nigel Farage that remaining in the EU would be the death of the UK steel industry. It would probably be in better shape than it currently is if there was economic stability and greater attractiveness in it by European customers.

LuckyLloyd

golfball37 wrote: »

Yes - they are doing two separate scenarios for 3 and 4 seats I believe. The 72k quota is for 4 seats. I think Boylan transfers will get Daly ahead of andrews on female grounds alone

Thanks for confirming.

Yes, her votes being redistributed will be very interesting indeed if the gap between Andrews and Daly at that point is reasonably tight.

Christy42

eagle eye wrote: »

You are not getting it. Part of their thing is carbon TAXES. TAXES are the issue, people are fed up of more TAXES.

Remember you can't look at any other policies of a party but the one you hate.

People are aware things need to be done for climate action and they still voted for them. In great numbers.

If people want right wing politics they are not showing it. I mean Fine Gael are slightly right of center but not significantly so. And they were part of water charges etc.

dublinman1990

On RTÉ One right now; I'm hearing the following.

The Brexit Party have 39% of the vote in the North East of England. They also have 2 MEPs each elected in Wales & London.

Ann Widdecombe had got elected tonight for the Brexit Party in the South west of England.

Lib Dems will win 3 seats in London which is good for them.

Tories & Labour share of the vote is in big trouble in the UK. BP chairman says that Labour vote has hemorrhaged right across the UK.

Boom__Boom

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Considering that there is a differentiation between the 3rd and “4th” seats if Boylan is eliminated in 5th will her votes be redistributed between Andrews / Daly?

You'd imagine they will have to distribute them - what odds Boylan's votes cause Daly to overtake Andrews and Andrews ends up on the Brexit sub bench?

Spanish Eyes

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Boylan is absolutely gone. There is no way she can be behind Daly at this stage and retain her seat.

Jaysis, we will still have O'Broin in the Dail though. Wonder if his mantra will change at all? Depends on what the politburo says I suppose.

Just wondered, if Boylan loses her seat in EP is she entitled to severance pay and a gratuity? Joking, but serious here folks, and the same question applies to any MEP who loses their seat.

Capt'n Midnight

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Boylan is absolutely gone. There is no way she can be behind Daly at this stage and retain her seat.

7th count and Lynn isn't attracting those transfers

Clare Daly, I4C + 656 43,400
Lynn Boylan, SF + 34440,045


Ben Gilroy, will be departing shortly

Sierra Oscar

Boom__Boom wrote: »

You'd imagine they will have to distribute them - what odds Boylan's votes cause Daly to overtake Andrews and Andrews ends up on the Brexit sub bench?

Andrews will pick up a fair chunk of Boylan's transfers. 22% of SF transfers went to FF in the 2016 General Election. There's a traditional 'republican / nationalist' transfer pattern between both parties.

Daly would need to be getting a huge percentage of Boylan's transfers to overtake Andrews.

Jamie2k9

marno21 wrote: »

A lot of economic activity recently in the UK accounted for by companies stockpiling for this no deal utopia you speak of. The lack of capital investment by UK companies along with the Brexit uncertainty causing suppressed demand from Europe will begin to start showing now and reversing it will not be easy or fast.



It was a campaign claim of prominent Brexiteer Nigel Farage that remaining in the EU would be the death of the UK steel industry. It would probably be in better shape than it currently is if there was economic stability and greater attractiveness in it by European customers.

I would except a economic decline if the event of a no deal but nothing significant and you are correct about the recent activity but the disruption would end within weeks,

As for the steel, my point still stands the industry was on it's knees for a long time and living off the taxpayers. Politicians make lots of claims but take a step back and irrespective of Brexit UK steel was in big trouble. The EU could have acted faster to deal with China dumping in recent years but the writing was on the wall anyway.

Eric Cartman

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Andrews will pick up a fair chunk of Boylan's transfers. 22% of SF transfers went to FF in the 2016 General Election. There's a traditional 'republican / nationalist' transfer pattern between both parties.

Daly would need to be getting a huge percentage of Boylan's transfers to overtake Andrews.

she'll likely get a lot of harrolds on the next elimination though, its a few thousand but might be enough to keep her there.

trixiebust

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The Uk is going madder by the minute. Well many of them are. I just don't understand it at all..

Can someone explain why a No Deal exit is Nirvana for these people?

Maybe because they have realised that being an island of 66 million odd people means that they can make their own way in the world.

Similarly, being a small island like Ireland with 4.5 million people means we will be forever tied to the EU because we are so small in comparison.