European Parliament Elections 2019

charlie14

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Listening to Marian Harkin on RTÉ. Sounds like the exit poll made a balls of Midlands North-West, good news for Ming. Funny how RTÉ are moving on from the exit poll issue without any discussion.

Marian Harkin has Ming to take the second seat. She didn`t sound overly optimistic for Walsh taking a seat. Reckoned that her tally yesterday of Walsh getting 37%-40% of McGuinnnes surplus was to high. If true it is a shocking transfer % between party running mates and would make me think on that basis that Walsh is not particulary transfer friendly.
Be saying from early on that for the last, if not the last two seats, that Casey`s transfers will decide it.

jay0109

Pat Cox is the ultimate europhile. Sickening

golfball37

dublinman1990 wrote: »

On RTÉ One right now; I'm hearing the following.

The Brexit Party have 39% of the vote in the North East of England. They also have 2 MEPs each elected in Wales & London.

Ann Widdecombe had got elected tonight for the Brexit Party in the South west of England.

Lib Dems will win 3 seats in London which is good for them.

Tories & Labour share of the vote is in big trouble in the UK. BP chairman says that Labour vote has hemorrhaged right across the UK.

Conservative party got 8% in London!

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

I hope that's a banoffee pie

charlie14

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Boylan is absolutely gone. There is no way she can be behind Daly at this stage and retain her seat.

Looking like it`s between Andrews and Daly as to which gets third and fourth.

Christy42

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I would except a economic decline if the event of a no deal but nothing significant and you are correct about the recent activity but the disruption would end within weeks,

As for the steel, my point still stands the industry was on it's knees for a long time and living off the taxpayers. Politicians make lots of claims but take a step back and irrespective of Brexit UK steel was in big trouble. The EU could have acted faster to deal with China dumping in recent years but the writing was on the wall anyway.

The EU couldn't because the UK used it's veto.


I am always amazed at how terrible the UK must be. Masses of capital has fled the country, finance jobs going across europe manufacturing jobs going across europe and yet every time we are told that it has nothing to do with Brexit. So what is so bad about the UK that it has struggled to compete recently.

Btw. British Steel specifically mentioned the big issue recently was reduced orders from Europe as European companies prepare alternate suppliers before Brexit.

jay0109

charlie14 wrote: »

Looking like it`s between Andrews and Daly as to which gets third and fourth.

As much as I hate Daly....

LuckyLloyd

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Jaysis, we will still have O'Broin in the Dail though. Wonder if his mantra will change at all? Depends on what the politburo says I suppose.

Just wondered, if Boylan loses her seat in EP is she entitled to severance pay and a gratuity? Joking, but serious here folks, and the same question applies to any MEP who loses their seat.

They receive a transition allowance, equivalent to their salary, for one month for every year they served as an MEP up to a maximum payment period of two years.

So she’ll be paid for the next five months.

golfball37

jay0109 wrote: »

Pat Cox is the ultimate europhile. Sickening

He’s hardly gonna bite the hand that continues to feed him. Dealt with him in organizing committee capacity in limerick years ago, not a pleasant experience and I thank god he was in Brussels and not Dáil Éireann all those years.

Boom__Boom

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Andrews will pick up a fair chunk of Boylan's transfers. 22% of SF transfers went to FF in the 2016 General Election. There's a traditional 'republican / nationalist' transfer pattern between both parties.

Daly would need to be getting a huge percentage of Boylan's transfers to overtake Andrews.

She'd obviously need to close the gap a fair bit before that but I think it's not beyond the bounds of possiblility - a key thing for Daly is where people stopped going down the ballot.

Related to this is the fact that there's already nearly 2k in the non-transferrable pile.

Spanish Eyes

Listening to LBC radio, sounds like remainers are acceding to Brexit party. OMG.

Anne Widdecome for BXP elected. OMG again.

What the F are they thinking.

Brexit being the opium of the people maybe.

golfball37

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

They receive a transition allowance, equivalent to their salary, for one month for every year they served as an MEP up to a maximum payment period of two years.

So she’ll be paid for the next five months.

She’ll have her pick of by elections to get on the dail gravy train by the looks of things.

Spanish Eyes

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

They receive a transition allowance, equivalent to their salary, for one month for every year they served as an MEP up to a maximum payment period of two years.

So she’ll be paid for the next five months.

Thanks for that. Not a bad severance package at all.

TheRiverman

Farage having a political orgasm tonight.

badtoro

charlie14 wrote: »

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Listening to Marian Harkin on RTÉ. Sounds like the exit poll made a balls of Midlands North-West, good news for Ming. Funny how RTÉ are moving on from the exit poll issue without any discussion.

Marian Harkin has Ming to take the second seat. She didn`t sound overly optimistic for Walsh taking a seat. Reckoned that her tally yesterday of Walsh getting 37%-40% of McGuinnnes surplus was to high. If true it is a shocking transfer % between party running mates and would make me think on that basis that Walsh is not particulary transfer friendly.
Be saying from early on that for the last, if not the last two seats, that Casey`s transfers will decide it.

Considering the field running, I'd be very happy for Ming, Carthy, and McHugh to be elected. Neither Walsh nor Casey do anything for me.

Still needs that 1st count...

mickmackmcgoo

Boom__Boom wrote:

She'd obviously need to close the gap a fair bit before that but I think it's not beyond the bounds of possiblility - a key thing for Daly is where people stopped going down the ballot.

Gary Gannon. Alex White and Gillian Brien have over 40,000 votes to be transferred when eliminated. You have to think that Boylan and Daly will get good chunks of those and close the gap to Andrews. Not by enough to pass him but closing near to him

LuckyLloyd

I have no idea why people get surprised on transfers for ‘big name’ candidates who disappoint on first preference in a given election. If your no.1s are weak your transfers will be too. Similarly, over performing candidates on the first vote are greeted with surprise when they transfer better than historically expected.

Boylan’s vote more than halved. She’ll continue to struggle through the rest of the counts. She’s done, and the only real question is Andrews / Daly at this point.

dublinman1990

This is from the Sky News website.

Full Eastern England Region Result

BP: 604,715

Tories: 163,830

Labour: 139,490

Lib Dems: 361,563

Greens: 202,460

UKIP: 54,676

Change UK: 58,274

Jamie2k9

Christy42 wrote: »

The EU couldn't because the UK used it's veto.


I am always amazed at how terrible the UK must be. Masses of capital has fled the country, finance jobs going across europe manufacturing jobs going across europe and yet every time we are told that it has nothing to do with Brexit. So what is so bad about the UK that it has struggled to compete recently.

Btw. British Steel specifically mentioned the big issue recently was reduced orders from Europe as European companies prepare alternate suppliers before Brexit.

The number of finance jobs that left is pretty small and significantly below forecasts. Exchange rates are global slow down are big problem. German analysis's have cut economic growth from 1.1 to 0.6%, Ireland has cut economic growth as have the EU as a block. Why is Germany not thriving you know as the single market is so so important...

British Steel like all companies have used Brexit to explain there financial performance since 2016. Its very good way to shut shareholders up.
The reality is yes it has had an impact however the problems are much deeper.

Sierra Oscar

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Boylan’s vote more than halved. She’ll continue to struggle through the rest of the counts. She’s done, and the only real question is Andrews / Daly at this point.

Hard to disagree with this analysis.

The Andrews / Daly battle could have a national significance too. If Daly is elected to Europe and takes up her seat immediately then I reckon there is a high likelihood of a General Election within a few months. Same goes for Wallace in Ireland South.

The Government can just about absorb Fitzgerald and Kelleher heading to Europe but after that the arithmetic for the Confidence and Supply Arrangement is fatally undermined.

Boom__Boom

mickmackmcgoo wrote: »

Gary Gannon. Alex White and Gillian Brien have over 40,000 votes to be transferred when eliminated. You have to think that Boylan and Daly will get good chunks of those and close the gap to Andrews. Not by enough to pass him but closing near to him

Yeah I could see Daly taking a serious chunk of these votes that do transfer - the question is whether it will be enough. I don't think Boylan is going to get anywhere near enough transfers - the fact that her FPV has been cut in half was a massive sign that she was going to struggle for transfers and that's what has happened so far - I can't see her turning that around.

LuckyLloyd

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Thanks for that. Not a bad severance package at all.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/faq/13/salaries-and-pensions

It’s a very well paid, well expensed and well resourced role. You can potentially do a huge amount with the half decade platform provided if you’re committed and put a strong team around you.

LuckyLloyd

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Hard to disagree with this analysis.

The Andrews / Daly battle could have a national significance too. If Daly is elected to Europe and takes up her seat immediately then I reckon there is a high likelihood of a General Election within a few months. Same goes for Wallace in Ireland South.

The Government can just about absorb Fitzgerald and Kelleher heading to Europe but after that the arithmetic for the Confidence and Supply Arrangement is fatally undermined.

Agreed, it’s a massive subplot to the counts over the next few days. Definitely a bad time for FF / FG / SF to go, but they’ll likely have to in short order if Daly and Wallace secure immediate seats.

mickmackmcgoo

Boom__Boom wrote:

Yeah I could see Daly taking a serious chunk of these votes that do transfer - the question is whether it will be enough. I don't think Boylan is going to get anywhere near enough transfers - the fact that her FPV has been cut in half was a massive sign that she was going to struggle for transfers and that's what has happened so far - I can't see her turning that around.

She will struggle for transfers no doubt but looking at the remaining numbers there are over 100k votes to be transferred before it gets down to the last 5 remaining. Assuming Durkan transfers to F Fitzgerald and elects her . Where is Chris Andrews getting transfers from ? I think Daly will pass him but remains to be seen if Boylan can gather enough .

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

Marian Harkin has Ming to take the second seat. She didn`t sound overly optimistic for Walsh taking a seat. Reckoned that her tally yesterday of Walsh getting 37%-40% of McGuinnnes surplus was to high. If true it is a shocking transfer % between party running mates and would make me think on that basis that Walsh is not particulary transfer friendly.
Be saying from early on that for the last, if not the last two seats, that Casey`s transfers will decide it.

There has been a pattern developing over the last five or six elections of poor transfers between running mates, and it is not just at European election level, where distance is a factor.

In one of our local wards, the transfer rate from one FF candidate to another was as low as 23% this time, which makes McGuinness/Walsh look good. The FG candidate left in the running got 31%.

I would guess that one of the few parties that can still maintain transfer discipline is Sinn Fein.

Hurrache

TheRiverman wrote: »

Farage having a political orgasm tonight.

At the moment he's not doing much better than last time out under the UKIP banner, and back then they didn't have the advantage of disastrous Brexit to help them.

Just Saying

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Hard to disagree with this analysis.

The Andrews / Daly battle could have a national significance too. If Daly is elected to Europe and takes up her seat immediately then I reckon there is a high likelihood of a General Election within a few months. Same goes for Wallace in Ireland South.

The Government can just about absorb Fitzgerald and Kelleher heading to Europe but after that the arithmetic for the Confidence and Supply Arrangement is fatally undermined.

Agreed, it’s a massive subplot to the counts over the next few days. Definitely a bad time for FF / FG / SF to go, but they’ll likely have to in short order if Daly and Wallace secure immediate seats.

Daly and/or Wallace going to Europe won't make any difference as they are not Govt votes anyway.

With over 50k votes in play between Gannon White and Brien I think Daly will pass Andrews.

Christy42

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

The number of finance jobs that left is pretty small and significantly below forecasts. Exchange rates are global slow down are big problem. German analysis's have cut economic growth from 1.1 to 0.6%, Ireland has cut economic growth as have the EU as a block. Why is Germany not thriving you know as the single market is so so important...

British Steel like all companies have used Brexit to explain there financial performance since 2016. Its very good way to shut shareholders up.
The reality is yes it has had an impact however the problems are much deeper.

They are still losing finance jobs. And that is just in preparation of Brexit. Nevermind if they actually leave.

Global slowdown could have also been used to keep shareholders quiet. If you will take every effect of it and call it politicing then yeah, it won't look like it is having an effect. Why did they not say global slowdown if that was the reason? Could the shareholders have argued against that? Can you advise those shareholders that they are being lied to and should kick up a fuss? I am pretty sure there is money there.

Ireland has cut growth forecasts because of Brexit.
Yes Steel had other issues. Brexit was always likely to finish off the weaker companies first like any recession.

youreadthat

Christy42 wrote: »

They are still losing finance jobs. And that is just in preparation of Brexit. Nevermind if they actually leave.

Global slowdown could have also been used to keep shareholders quiet. If you will take every effect of it and call it politicing then yeah, it won't look like it is having an effect. Why did they not say global slowdown if that was the reason? Could the shareholders have argued against that? Can you advise those shareholders that they are being lied to and should kick up a fuss? I am pretty sure there is money there.

Ireland has cut growth forecasts because of Brexit.
Yes Steel had other issues. Brexit was always likely to finish off the weaker companies first like any recession.

Except there's no recession and British Steel wanted government money so tried to embarrass it out of them. Btw they are a terrible company, they can't even supply the company I work for with common grades of steel, and the one's they can are not at competitive prices.

marno21

It would be wonderful if someone could electrify the fence Jeremy Corbyn is sitting on.

Atrocious but not surprising results for Labour. The Lib Dems have done extremely well given who their leader is but the firm policy position on Brexit for them and indeed the Greens is rewarding.

No surprise Farage romped home given the directness of his message, even if it is mainly soundbite based and has no real basis in reality. Although, the performance is roughly in line with what he managed with UKIP in 2014.