European Parliament Elections 2019

is_that_so

A total of 40000 votes in Ireland South had to be reviewed, 25000 blank papers. It seems that only about 1000 of them were returned to the count. Declaration expected at about 3 p.m.

is_that_so

It also seems that the McHugh exit poll vote may not be real and Casey may even poll above her. Ming, Carthy expected to be in 2 and 3 in Count 1. 40% of McGuinness transfers could go to Walsh.

LuckyLloyd

Spoiling your vote or choosing not to exercise your democratic privilege on one or more of the ballot papers presented to you is a political right.

Eric Cartman

is_that_so wrote: »

It also seems that the McHugh exit poll vote may not be real and Casey may even poll above her. Ming, Carthy expected to be in 2 and 3 in Count 1. 40% of McGuinness transfers could go to Walsh.

Ohh please, if peter beat mchugh for the 4th seat it would make my week.

Word is that shes the most transfer toxic ,

is_that_so

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Ohh please, if peter beat mchugh for the 4th seat it would make my week.

I didn't say he would, just that he may poll higher than her in the first count. Still looks like the long time prediction of three incumbents plus Walsh is most likely. I don't think McHugh is transfer toxic so much as the majority of her votes are in FPVs only. Green support outside urban areas is really not that high, despite the surge.

is_that_so

First count in MNW is expected shortly. See pic as well.
https://twitter.com/patmcgrath/status/1132990859430027271

Coillte_Bhoy

is_that_so wrote: »

I didn't say he would, just that he may poll higher than her in the first count. Still looks like the long time prediction of three incumbents plus Walsh is most likely. I don't think McHugh is transfer toxic so much as the majority of her votes are in FPVs only. Green support outside urban areas is really not that high, despite the surge.

Ming has been tweeting tallies of Number 2's for all candidates and she is not performing well, although the samples are very small but still.....

Eric Cartman

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Ming has been tweeting tallies of Number 2's for all candidates and she is not performing well, although the samples are very small but still.....

Thats it, casey picks up quite well from mcguinness

is_that_so

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Thats it, casey picks up quite well from mcguinness

But likely to be too far behind if Walsh gets 40% of whatever the McGuinness surplus is.

Just Saying

Based on those tallies(which should be accurate) it is very hard to see anything other McG,Flanagan,Carthy and Walsh.

It also highlights how far out the exit polls were.In particular the Green vote has been way overstated by amounts far in excess of the MoE.

Its renders them virtually useless and they have lured many people(myself included) into making predictions that will be well out.

seamus

Christy42 wrote: »

Can we have similar checks in an electronic vote? What would be an unusual transaction there. Even then you have a few primary targets (biggest vote centers or whatever central system is dragging all the results together).

As a system votes would be harder to secure and the result is far harder to reverse a month later.

Banking and voting can't really be compared. A core component of the security of these systems is verification; every transaction can be verified and accounted from from start to finish. So when mistakes are made or malicious actions take place, it's very easy to track back the who, when and where, and correct the system.

Voting (in Ireland anyway) is fundamentally different in that it absolutely requires that a single vote cannot be traced back to source. Imagine it like having one big bank account. You have to ensure that all of the money lodged into that bank account actually was lodged by a person (and not by manipulation of data), and that the person who lodged the money was legally entitled to, and that all of the money lodged is accounted for.
And you are not permitted, under any circumstances, to record how much money any individual lodged.

It's a far more difficult problem than most people realize, because on the face of it, it seems like something that should be easily computerised.

Part of the security of the current system is the sheer volume of manual effort required. Makes ballot stuffing or bribery really difficult because the more co-conspirators you need, the more likely you'll be caught.

I know it's off-topic, but this always comes up when we see how long the count takes. Personally, there's a small amount of enjoyment in the suspense, like watching a race. If a database were to just spit out the results five minutes after the polls close, it wouldn't be any craic.

Eric Cartman

is_that_so wrote: »

But likely to be too far behind if Walsh gets 40% of whatever the McGuinness surplus is.

Yeah, 2nd preferences can work strangely, the mcguinness surplus will tell all but theres not so many between walsh and casey right now to discount him , theres enough of a gap and not enough transfers to keep mchugh in 6th though

is_that_so

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Yeah, 2nd preferences can work strangely, the mcguinness surplus will tell all but theres not so many between walsh and casey right now to discount him , theres enough of a gap and not enough transfers to keep mchugh in 6th though

If McGuinness surplus is say 5% or about 25K she gets 10K of it and goes to almost the same level as Carthy. If she gets 20K+ the gig is up, even 15K would be very hard to pull back. Comment on lunchtime report is that the FF votes may decide on the last seats.
In 6th McHugh is not likely to be in it at all.

is_that_so

RTE News Now seem to be covering the declarations. Can also pick up the feed on Twitter @rteNews.

is_that_so

Quota is 118986, turnout just under 50%, invalid papers 21,628
McGuinness on 134630 surplus of 16,000 or so possibly 7K going to Walsh.
Casey 56650
Ming 85034
Walsh 64500
Carthy 77619
McHugh 51019
Hannigan 12378
Healy Eames 15,000
Smith 42814
Rabbitte 30230
O'Dowd 6897

LuckyLloyd

1st count in Midlands / NW, I excluded certain candidates:

Maraid McGuinness (FG): 134,630
Luke Ming Flanagan (Ind): 85,034
Matt Carty (SF): 77,619
Maria Walsh (FG): 64,500
Peter Casey (Ind): 56,650
Soairse McHugh (Green): 51,019
Brendan Smyth (FF): 42,814
Anne Rabbitte (FF): 30,220
Dominic Hannigan (Labour): 12,378
Cyril Brennan (S/PBP): 8,113

Second count will be her surplus of 15,644 being redistributed

is_that_so

Hard to see anyone catching up to the top 4 especially as Walsh will probably be 20K ahead of Casey.

Jamie2k9

Could FF transfers boost Casey?

Squatter

Combined FF vote (72K) lower than both SF and the Mingster.

Combined FG vote about 200K

wow!

seamus

Hard to say which way that one's gonna go at the bottom. Brendan Smyth will probably leapfrog Casey and McHugh near the end when he gets Rabbitte's transfers. McHugh might be in with a chance if the Greens got a lot of #2s.

LuckyLloyd

The Exit poll was absolutely terrible. Questions to be asked there.

is_that_so

seamus wrote: »

Hard to say which way that one's gonna go at the bottom. Brendan Smyth will probably leapfrog Casey and McHugh near the end when he gets Rabbitte's transfers. McHugh might be in with a chance if the Greens got a lot of #2s.

Ming tweeted a small tally sample suggesting that she didn't.

robman60

Looks a done deal if the #2 tallies are to be trusted. If FF had just run one candidate they might have been in with a shout for the last seat. Making the same mistake two elections in a row is unforgivable.

Christy42

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The Exit poll was absolutely terrible. Questions to be asked there.

Indeed. Exit polls are normally pretty decent and in an age of increased scrutiny on polls they got this one badly wrong.

Maybe they had issues predicting who would vote during a European election?

is_that_so

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The Exit poll was absolutely terrible. Questions to be asked there.

Well they are all more or less at the MOE! Exit poll at least can give a hint as to who might be involved.

robman60

is_that_so wrote: »

Well they are all more or less at the MOE! Exit poll at least can give a hint as to who might be involved.

The consistent overestimation of green vote seems bizarre. I wonder are they attributing a higher turnout to the young than they should be? That seems plausible.

badtoro

I'm happy that Ming looks likely to be returned, however it's rather marred by the prospects of who will fill the final seat, looks like McHugh is too far back

Topgear on Dave

robman60 wrote: »

Looks a done deal if the #2 tallies are to be trusted. If FF had just run one candidate they might have been in with a shout for the last seat. Making the same mistake two elections in a row is unforgivable.

I thought they were a bit mad running Brendan when I heard it.

Hes the local TD up home, nice man but not exactly a big hitter oozing sex appeal and charisma. :pac:

is_that_so

robman60 wrote: »

The consistent overestimation of green vote seems bizarre. I wonder are they attributing a higher turnout to the young than they should be? That seems plausible.

I suggested that people conflated Green votes in the locals with the Euros.

Fan of Netflix

I actually feel sorry for Saoirse McHugh, RTE were making on her a celebrity and asking her her plans in the parliament based on their nonsense exit poll. It's not really fair, she seems a very nice person.