European Parliament Elections 2019

robman60

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

I thought they were a bit mad running Brendan when I heard it.

Hes the local TD up home, nice man but not exactly a big hitter oozing sex appeal and charisma. :pac:

The results also would seem to confirm what I was thinking - Casey's vote is largely at the expense of FF.

I agree with you too though that going off what the party is polling is unwise. Someone like McGuinness will poll well regardless of party banner, while the two FF candidates are as bland as they come. Was very unimpressed with Smith on the Week in Politics debate.

Fan of Netflix

Deviation from exit poll:

McGuinness (FG) -2%
Flanagan (Ind) +4
Carthy (SF) -2%
Walsh (FG) +1
Casey (Ind) +2.5%
McHugh (Green) -3%
Smith (FF) +1%
Rabbitte (FF) +2%


A lot of people were laughing at Ming saying he would lose his seat based on RTE poll. Comfortably 2nd on those numbers.

dublinman1990

I heard from The Guardian that Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is going to face the sack in a no confidence vote soon.

His OVP party done badly in Austria winning 7 of the country's 18 seats in the EP.

Here is Reuters in Vienna on the story:

Kurz now heads a caretaker government that he hopes to use as a springboard for re-election, presenting himself as more of a victim of the political crisis set off by the video than an enabler of it who brought the far right to power.

But with the next election expected in September, opposition parties say Kurz must share the blame, and they moved in parliament to depose what is effectively a minority government in which FPO ministers were replaced by civil servants.

“The Kurz government has failed,” the Social Democrats’ (SPÖ) deputy parliamentary faction head Joerg Leichtfried said in a speech to parliament, minutes before his party submitted the motion.

Kurz gambled away his chances and, Mr Chancellor, you bear full responsibility.

FPÖ lawmakers earlier unanimously agreed to support the SPÖ motion, several of those who attended a party meeting told reporters. The two parties have 103 seats combined in the 183-seat lower house of parliament, easily giving them the majority required for the motion to pass.

If Kurz goes, Austria’s president will nominate a new chancellor to put together a caretaker government able to last until the election.

Kurz sought to present himself as a force for stability, telling MPs:

To topple the government a few months before an election is something few people in this country can understand.

emo72

Polls are a curse. And should be banned.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

Hard to see anyone catching up to the top 4 especially as Walsh will probably be 20K ahead of Casey.

She is only 8,000 ahead of Casey. To go 20,000 ahead she would need 80% of McGuinness surplus.

marvin80

emo72 wrote: »

Polls are a curse. And should be banned.

I don't think I can agree with that sentiment - we should set-up a poll to see what other people think

Christy42

dublinman1990 wrote: »

I heard from The Guardian that Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is going to face the sack in a no confidence vote soon.

His OVP party done badly in Austria winning 7 of the country's 18 seats in the EP.

Given the sting operation and losing half the cabinet very recently this sort of seems inevitable (far right promised government jobs if the niece of a Russian oligarch bought a controlling stake in a newspaper and got them to write nice things about them).

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

She is only 8,000 ahead of Casey. To go 20,000 ahead she would need 80% of McGuinness surplus.

She'll be 15K after the surplus, which should be 7K or so. That's too much for him and she will pick up transfers along the way.

badtoro

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

I actually feel sorry for Saoirse McHugh, RTE were making on her a celebrity and asking her her plans in the parliament based on their nonsense exit poll. It's not really fair, she seems a very nice person.

Same as that. The meeja aren't your friend!

Eric Cartman

charlie14 wrote: »

She is only 8,000 ahead of Casey. To go 20,000 ahead she would need 80% of McGuinness surplus.

Mings tally seems to suggest casey gets mid 20s % of mcguinness so him alone may have scuppered it

badtoro

charlie14 wrote: »

is_that_so wrote: »

Hard to see anyone catching up to the top 4 especially as Walsh will probably be 20K ahead of Casey.

She is only 8,000 ahead of Casey. To go 20,000 ahead she would need 80% of McGuinness surplus.

From Mings twitter

Prediction after distribution of McGuinness surplus.
Carthy 77619+735=78354
Casey56650+1173=57823
Flanagan 85034+1877=86911
Hannigan 12378+516=12894
Healy Eames 15991+422=16413
McHugh 51019+1501=52520
Rabbitte 30230+719=30949
Smith 42815+1001=43815
Walsh 64500+5835=70335.

robman60

badtoro wrote: »

Same as that. The meeja aren't your friend!

They were determined to build up this green wave based on the word of probably about 1000 people per constituency.

golfball37

Grace O'Sullivan should start to feel worried if she based her chances on RTE's information. They overstated Cuffe by 6% and McHugh by 4%.

charlie14

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Could FF transfers boost Casey?

I would be very surprised if it doesn`t. Cannot see Walsh getting much from them.

Eric Cartman

charlie14 wrote: »

I would be very surprised if it doesn`t. Cannot see Walsh getting much from them.

Thats where I think on this, both ff candidates are incredibly unlikely to transfer to fg or the shinners, this is where the slim chance casey has lies

Sierra Oscar

seamus wrote: »

Hard to say which way that one's gonna go at the bottom. Brendan Smyth will probably leapfrog Casey and McHugh near the end when he gets Rabbitte's transfers. McHugh might be in with a chance if the Greens got a lot of #2s.

Rumours from people on the ground is that McHugh is transfer toxic. I'm not sure how much I would read into that however. Although it could make sense given the constituency. Rural community / farmers highly suspicious of the Green Party.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

She'll be 15K after the surplus, which should be 7K or so. That's too much for him and she will pick up transfers along the way.

She will if she gets 50% and he gets nothing and there is still a combined FF vote of 73,000 when they are eliminated. Cannot see Walsh getting much there but Casey could do well out of that.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

I would be very surprised if it doesn`t. Cannot see Walsh getting much from them.

There may not be a huge number anyway. Rabbitte could also transfer quite a few to Smith and Smith likewise.

dmakc

Wonder if IT will spend tomorrow's paper correcting the crazy green hyperbole they filled today's with.

Christy42

robman60 wrote: »

They were determined to build up this green wave based on the word of probably about 1000 people per constituency.

You can normally do that. It involves predicting the number of each grouping that will vote reliably which is where I suspect they went wrong. This is not their first rodeo so the number of people polled should be fine. Just how they weighted each response (so older people may get a heavier weighting if they expect more old people to go out and vote and didn't poll enough).

Or maybe they conflated local and EU elections as has been suggested which was a bad mistake but a good polling company should be fine with 1000 people.

Polls, especially exit polls, have been no where near as bad as has been suggested recently.

Except this one has been terrible.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

She will if she gets 50% and he gets nothing and there is still a combined FF vote of 73,000 when they are eliminated. Cannot see Walsh getting much there but Casey could do well out of that.

Nah, he's really too far back and he will not get 14K-15K in transfers. Carthy is under more pressure but he has all those leftish candidates to drag him along and a bit from FF. They were also talking about a possible Ming surplus. Seemingly he was encouraging people to vote Walsh Number 2.

Fan of Netflix

Maybe Matt Carthy would have done better if he confirmed he would sit in the parliament and not give his seat to another Sinn Fein rep. I believe it is Darren O'Rourke from Meath who lost his council seat yesterday. Absurd stuff, there should be a by election. And I say that as someone who gave Carthy a number 2 preference.

badtoro

is_that_so wrote: »

charlie14 wrote: »

She will if she gets 50% and he gets nothing and there is still a combined FF vote of 73,000 when they are eliminated. Cannot see Walsh getting much there but Casey could do well out of that.

Nah, he's really too far back and he will not get 14K-15K in transfers. Carthy is under more pressure but he has all those leftish candidates to drag him along and a bit from FF. They were also talking about a possible Ming surplus. Seemingly he was encouraging people to vote Walsh Number 2.

If you mean Ming, he was asking people to put McHugh 2.

is_that_so

badtoro wrote: »

If you mean Ming, he was asking people to put McHugh 2.

Ah that's who it was. My mistake. Point still stands in relation to Walsh, she will get transfers.

LuckyLloyd

The key question is going to be who McHugh's votes transfer to. Her elimination will decide the contest and effectively end whatever chance Casey has.

Eric Cartman

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The key question is going to be who McHugh's votes transfer to. Her elimination will decide the contest and effectively end whatever chance Casey has.

Wont prop up fg anyway, likely some down to carthy

Fan of Netflix

I think Casey will get a large chunk of Fianna Fail preferences. Carthy will struggle for preferences.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

Nah, he's really too far back and he will not get 14K-15K in transfers. Carthy is under more pressure but he has all those leftish candidates to drag him along and a bit from FF. They were also talking about a possible Ming surplus. Seemingly he was encouraging people to vote Walsh Number 2.

I heard he was encouraging Number 2 for McHugh rather than Walsh, but with him needing 33,000 to reach a quota he is hardly going to have much of a surplus anyway.
I take your point on the two FF transfers, but I am having difficult to see where Walsh will get transfers from what is left in the field. Healy-Emes is gene poll FG but the profile of her vote makes it unlikely their will be a large transfer to Walsh I would imagine.

MacDanger

Christy42 wrote: »

Indeed. Exit polls are normally pretty decent and in an age of increased scrutiny on polls they got this one badly wrong.

Maybe they had issues predicting who would vote during a European election?

Not really, all bar Ming (~4.3% deviation) were within the margin of error and the average deviation for the top 9 candidates was 2%. Admittedly they seems to be well off on Cuffe but generally decent otherwise

The fact that people choose to ignore the caveat about a poll being based on a sample size and having an associated margin of error is hardly the pollster's fault.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

I heard he was encouraging Number 2 for McHugh rather than Walsh, but with him needing 33,000 to reach a quota he is hardly going to have much of a surplus anyway.
I take your point on the two FF transfers, but I am having difficult to see where Walsh will get transfers from what is left in the field. Healy-Emes is gene poll FG but the profile of her vote makes it unlikely their will be a large transfer to Walsh I would imagine.

She doesn't need to get many, just a steady flow to keep her ahead. Hannigan should give her some, Eames too and even FF a small number. The 4th seat, even the 3rd could be filled without hitting the quota. The huge McGuinness vote makes that more probable. In that scenario you only need to be ahead.