European Parliament Elections 2019

normanoffside

robman60 wrote: »

South results just in and SF could be under pressure again. If the transfer toxicity they're showing in Dublin stands, they're probably out

She'll be out I'd imagine. Clune will pass her once Doyle goes. In the meantime O'Sullivan just has to get an extra 3k transfers to pass her for the last seat.

Wallace should be safe especially if he transfers as well as Daly.

Loafing Oaf

normanoffside wrote: »

She'll be out I'd imagine.

Serious questions about Mary Lou and broader SF strategy if that happens:eek:

kippy

Uriel. wrote: »

That's how a lot of people vote, irrespective of the type of election. Sure look at the kinda crap candidates put forward as their mission/proposal, particularly in the locals

The reality is, from a legislature perspective none of the Irish meps can do much, if anything. Notwithstanding his good attendance and voting record, what has ming achieved in Brussels.

I will say Mairead McGuinness and Marian Harkin have done tremendous works for various causes while in Brussels, in terms of raising profiles for various issues, such as dementia, and have really championed the rights of those with dementia.
However, legislatively there is little power.

TBH, and I am neither for or against any of them but I've never heard any of the three actually achieve anything over there. Raising profiles of things is surely something they've all done but I'm not aware of one thing over another.

Just Saying

normanoffside wrote: »

She'll be out I'd imagine. Clune will pass her once Doyle goes. In the meantime O'Sullivan just has to get an extra 3k transfers to pass her for the last seat.

Wallace should be safe especially if he transfers as well as Daly.

Normally you would expect Doyle's transfers to see Clune pass O Riadh but the presence of 2 Wexford candidate Wallace and Byrne complicates matters.It's really hard to call.

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1133084985286635523?s=19

golfball37

Just Saying wrote: »

Normally you would expect Doyle's transfers to see Clune pass O Riadh but the presence of 2 Wexford candidate Wallace and Byrne complicates matters.It's really hard to call.

I don’t see Doyle’s going to Clune in such numbers as to bridge a 15k gap to O Riadh personally

blanch152

gmisk wrote: »

Lovely to see Naomi Long looking good for a seat in northern Ireland, she might even take the second seat which would be even more impressive

Stunning result in Northern Ireland, unless I have got some figures wrong.

In the last count, SDLP transfers were nearly 2:1 in favour of the Alliance. That is some rejection of Sinn Fein by a large section of the nationalist community.

Unionist First Preferences: 245,841
Nationalist First Preferences: 205,540
Green and Alliance: 118,399

Now that includes SDLP as nationalist which is questionable given the transfer outcome.

Sinn Fein topped the poll, and they will be crowing about that, but they only got 22% of the vote. That is down from 25.5% in 2014. What is happening to the demographic inevitability of a united Ireland?

normanoffside

Just Saying wrote: »

Normally you would expect Doyle's transfers to see Clune pass O Riadh but the presence of 2 Wexford candidate Wallace and Byrne complicates matters.It's really hard to call.

FG will hoover up a lot of the Labour transfers too.
That's 60k votes between Doyle and Nunan.
Clune only needs 15k of them to pass NiRiada

Just Saying

golfball37 wrote: »

I don’t see Doyle’s going to Clune in such numbers as to bridge a 15k gap to O Riadh personally

I wouldn't either but with so many eliminations to take place before Doyle it is imposible to know what the gap will be.If its 10/12k Clune would have a real chance .

namloc1980

Just noticed that the constituencies seems to very out of whack. In the South total electorate of 1.417m with 5 seats and Dublin 0.884m has 4 seats. Quite the difference.

charlie14

Wallace looks nailed on for the second seat in South.

blanch152

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Watching the transfers in Dublin MEP race. Sinn Fein still as transfer toxic as ever. You'd think someone like Lynn Boylan might get more transfers, but Barry Andrews got around 300 more than her from Alice Higgins votes. Think we can safely call it now Lynn Boylan and Sinn Fein lose a seat. Total disaster for Sinn Fein.

After Count 12, Boylan only got 2,343 transfers from Solidarity's 14,358.

Labour, Social Democrats and FG (Durkan) still to go out and nobody elected.

She won't catch Daly and the gap to Andrews is still over 9,000.

It would take Labour voters going for Sinn Fein en masse to get her there. Can't see it.

Christy42

Eric Cartman wrote: »

in the same way as it would have had no impact from the presidential office but it shows the government the barometer of the country.

His stance on immigration does have relevance in the EU , but the other comments would be more about exposure. When it looked like the green party were going to green sweep it, leo came right out and said 'ok, we know what the people want' , if casey got elected to europe you hope they'd take the same kind of message home.

The greens did decently for Europe (not as good as polls but better than expected) and did great in the locals. They did this across the different areas of the country. This decently for Europe includes Topping one of the polls with 17%.

Most anti immigration candidates got kicked home with very little of the vote. Casey was the only one to get anywhere and is still struggling for a seat. Casey struggling to get into a seat that won't even exist for a while is not a message.

Just Saying

normanoffside wrote: »

FG will hoover up a lot of the Labour transfers too.
That's 60k votes between Doyle and Nunan.
Clune only needs 15k of them to pass NiRiada

Maybe but it might not be as clearcut as that.There are 85k of smaller party/independent votes to be distributed before Nunan.The majority of these are left leaning which should favour O Riadh but you never know.

Also this assumes that O Sullivan will pass O Riadh which is likely but not certain.

blanch152

golfball37 wrote: »

I don’t see Doyle’s going to Clune in such numbers as to bridge a 15k gap to O Riadh personally

A 50% transfer rate from Doyle to Clune will see Clune ahead of Ni Riadh by 4k.

Ni Riadh needs 40k votes to reach the quota, where are they going to come from? Wallace will hoover up the Solidarity votes, the Labour ones will go to the Greens and to a lesser extent FG.

An Ciarraioch

charlie14 wrote: »

Wallace looks nailed on for the second seat in South.

Third - Kelleher will be elected before him.

golfball37

blanch152 wrote: »

A 50% transfer rate from Doyle to Clune will see Clune ahead of Ni Riadh by 4k.

Ni Riadh needs 40k votes to reach the quota, where are they going to come from? Wallace will hoover up the Solidarity votes, the Labour ones will go to the Greens and to a lesser extent FG.

I didn’t say she would but I see her finishing ahead of Clune who will get GOS elected imo

normanoffside

Walsh got just over a third of McGuinness' surplus.

McHugh, Ming and Casey picked up over 1k each too.

An Ciarraioch

Christy42 wrote: »

The greens did decently for Europe (not as good as polls but better than expected) and did great in the locals. They did this across the different areas of the country. This decently for Europe includes Topping one of the polls with 17%.

Most anti immigration candidates got kicked home with very little of the vote. Casey was the only one to get anywhere and is still struggling for a seat. Casey struggling to get into a seat that won't even exist for a while is not a message.

And, if, as expected, he runs for the Dáil as an independent in Donegal, and gets elected, he would have even less influence than the Healy-Raes.

charlie14

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Third - Kelleher will be elected before him.

Possibly but there are a lot of Indo`s to be eliminated before that and there is a PBP there as well with 15,000 FPV`s

Either way, both are in and like him or loath him it is an impressive performance from Wallace.

Jamie2k9

Will be great if SF lose Ireland South.

Most say quiet an impressive performance for Irexit with over 10k votes for a person who was unknown 2-3 months ago and had little profile during the election (including no social media, Irexit account didn't mention her much). Liberal Dublin only gave Kelly 2k vote in comparison. They have 5 years to build again and long term could be a thorn in the side of FG and FF in future.

Mick W will do well from transfers.

Eric Cartman

normanoffside wrote: »

Walsh got just over a third of McGuinness' surplus.

McHugh, Ming and Casey picked up over 1k each too.

picked up 6k, so not a massive amount, casey could still clench it with FF transfers. Walsh won't have much more pickup from other candidates to be eliminated.

Just Saying

blanch152 wrote: »

A 50% transfer rate from Doyle to Clune will see Clune ahead of Ni Riadh by 4k.

Ni Riadh needs 40k votes to reach the quota, where are they going to come from? Wallace will hoover up the Solidarity votes, the Labour ones will go to the Greens and to a lesser extent FG.

Because of the number of votes which won't be transferable the quota is irrelevant for the fifth seat.

I might be wrong but with Wallace and Byrne will surely impact on the % of Doyle's votes going to Clune.Given that The Mc Guiness/Walsh transfer rate in Midlands/NW is at 40% and the Wexford factor I would give a wild guess at 30/35% Doyle to Clune.

God only knows what the gap will be at that stage though.

Coillte_Bhoy

normanoffside wrote: »

FG will hoover up a lot of the Labour transfers too.
That's 60k votes between Doyle and Nunan.
Clune only needs 15k of them to pass NiRiada

Well yes, if Ni Riada gets 0 transfers

Just Saying

Eric Cartman wrote: »

picked up 6k, so not a massive amount, casey could still clench it with FF transfers. Walsh won't have much more pickup from other candidates to be eliminated.

The Ming Flanagan tally analysis of the transfers of Rabbite and Smith show Walsh getting as many as Casey.

is_that_so

Eric Cartman wrote: »

picked up 6k, so not a massive amount, casey could still clench it with FF transfers. Walsh won't have much more pickup from other candidates to be eliminated.

No guarantee there will be many FF transfers nor that they will go to him in any numbers. Also not sure that your claims about Walsh are true either. She seems like the type who will get transfers.

Eric Cartman

Just Saying wrote: »

The Ming Flanagan tally analysis of the transfers of Rabbite and Smith show Walsh getting as many as Casey.

shall wait and see how it plays out. I would find it odd that somebody would go FF --> FG 'new kid'

is_that_so

Just Saying wrote: »

The Ming Flanagan tally analysis of the transfers of Rabbite and Smith show Walsh getting as many as Casey.

Yep, she'll pick them up all over. There's a reason why her FPVs were quite strong.

Boom__Boom

The three Sinn Fein candidates in 2014 got 323,000 FPV

The three Sinn Fein candidates in 2019 got 196,078 FPV

A decreases of 127,222 FPVs or 40%.

Overall that's a massive pasting.

Boylan is dead in the water and has done dismally in terms of transfers - the worry for Mary Lou now is if the same happens to Ni Riada and Carthy.

is_that_so

Eric Cartman wrote: »

shall wait and see how it plays out. I would find it odd that somebody would go FF --> FG 'new kid'

Both partes will give a nominal number of transfers to each other in any election. It's the effect of voters going down the list. Non-transferables could be very high. Carthy, Walsh and Casey will get votes from them but it may not be massive.