European Parliament Elections 2019

Just Saying

Eric Cartman wrote: »

shall wait and see how it plays out. I would find it odd that somebody would go FF --> FG 'new kid'

The Ming tallies were very accurate with the McG surplus.

is_that_so

Boom__Boom wrote: »

The three Sinn Fein candidates in 2014 got 323,000 FPV

The three Sinn Fein candidates in 2019 got 196,078 FPV

A decreases of 127,222 FPVs or 40%.

Overall that's a massive pasting.

Boylan is dead in the water and has done dismally in terms of transfers - the worry for Mary Lou now is if the same happens to Ni Riada and Carthy.

Carthy should be OK because of his FPVs and there are enough votes in the bottom half to have him close to a seat. As well as that the following pack, Casey et al, are too far back.

normanoffside

Fitzgerald got 60% of Durkan's transfers in Dublin. A few votes short of Quota now.

Cuffe finally elected.

charlie14

Eric Cartman wrote: »

shall wait and see how it plays out. I would find it odd that somebody would go FF --> FG 'new kid'

So would I. Especially that those FF FPV`s are most likely older and conservative.

normanoffside

Andrews stretched his lead over Daly by just over a thousand after Durkan's transfers too.

It's going to be tight. Alex White's transfers will be crucial in that race.

Eric Cartman

charlie14 wrote: »

So would I. Especially that those FF FPV`s are most likely older and conservative.

+1 , I think atleast a 1/3rd of O'dowd (renua) transfers might go that way too, DDI's Patrick green, theres a lot of small gains there before the FF card even comes out to play.

is_that_so

Eric Cartman wrote: »

+1 , I think atleast a 1/3rd of O'dowd (renua) transfers might go that way too, DDI's Patrick green, theres a lot of small gains there before the FF card even comes out to play.

He has a deficit of nearly 13K at present. That's huge and your hypothesis here seems to be based on Walsh getting no transfers to any he might get. Again you seem to be completely ignoring the fact that large quantities of transfers can go nowhere.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

So would I. Especially that those FF FPV`s are most likely older and conservative.

Hmm, FG will give to FF but FF will not do so for FG. Not borne out by real life nor results in Euros.

Fan of Netflix

Liadh Ni Riada the poppy wearing "Republican" will collapse and lose out on transfers.

jos28

normanoffside wrote: »

Fitzgerald got 60% of Durkan's transfers in Dublin. A few votes short of Quota now.

Cuffe finally elected.

Just looking at that now, massive amount of transfers from Durkan.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

Hmm, FG will give to FF but FF will not do so for FG. Not borne out by real life nor results in Euros.

Not what I was saying.

The chances are that those FF vote are older and conservative, which for one would negate transfers to Walsh. The other is that Casey`s vote is most likely gene poll FF and if so he would be more transfer friendly.

robman60

charlie14 wrote: »

So would I. Especially that those FF FPV`s are most likely older and conservative.

The age break down on polls (if you want to believe them) were all showing Walsh doing well with the over 55s, same as the FF vote. She will get easily enough transfers to get in, especially with the lead she has now.

You're thinking she won't do well with the older crowd because she is a young lesbian, but she is more than that. She is a young, lesbian, former Rose of Tralee. That appeals to the voter you think won't vote for her.

blanch152

golfball37 wrote: »

I didn’t say she would but I see her finishing ahead of Clune who will get GOS elected imo

The problems for Ni Riadh are evident in Count 2.

She got 68 votes from the DDI and Independent candidate. The combined Byrne/Clune/Doyle vote got 78, while O'Sullivan got 100 and Wallace got 253.

If that pattern continues the rest of the way through all the transfers, then Wallace will stay ahead, O'Sullivan will easily pass her out and either Clune or Byrne will be close to Ni Riadh for the last seat.

Loafing Oaf

charlie14 wrote: »

So would I. Especially that those FF FPV`s are most likely older and conservative.

Yeah but that would make them more likely to be Rose of Tralee devotees, so swings and roundabouts:P

blanch152

Boom__Boom wrote: »

The three Sinn Fein candidates in 2014 got 323,000 FPV

The three Sinn Fein candidates in 2019 got 196,078 FPV

A decreases of 127,222 FPVs or 40%.

Overall that's a massive pasting.

Boylan is dead in the water and has done dismally in terms of transfers - the worry for Mary Lou now is if the same happens to Ni Riada and Carthy.

Ni Riadh is in serious danger, but there is a long way to go.

Carthy should be safe.

is_that_so

robman60 wrote: »

The age break down on polls (if you want to believe them) were all showing Walsh doing well with the over 55s, same as the FF vote. She will get easily enough transfers to get in, especially with the lead she has now.

You're thinking she won't do well with the older crowd because she is a young lesbian, but she is more than that. She is a young, lesbian, former Rose of Tralee. That appeals to the voter you think won't vote for her.

TBH there really is only a small cohort who'll get into that question of her sexuality. She seems to come across well enough on other things.

Fan of Netflix

blanch152 wrote: »

The problems for Ni Riadh are evident in Count 2.

She got 68 votes from the DDI and Independent candidate. The combined Byrne/Clune/Doyle vote got 78, while O'Sullivan got 100 and Wallace got 253.

If that pattern continues the rest of the way through all the transfers, then Wallace will stay ahead, O'Sullivan will easily pass her out and either Clune or Byrne will be close to Ni Riadh for the last seat.

She's done, she won't get the transfers. Another Sinn Fein woman gets the gate, massacre for Mary Lou. Mary Lou will be gone soon also.

charlie14

robman60 wrote: »

The age break down on polls (if you want to believe them) were all showing Walsh doing well with the over 55s, same as the FF vote. She will get easily enough transfers to get in, especially with the lead she has now.

You're thinking she won't do well with the older crowd because she is a young lesbian, but she is more than that. She is a young, lesbian, former Rose of Tralee. That appeals to the voter you think won't vote for her.

Hard to know what to make of polls at the moment.
I didn`t say I thought she wouldn`t do well with the older crowd because she is a young lesbian.
I said that with the FF vote most likely older and conservative, it could negate her being a FG candidate plus being a young lesbian getting FF transfers when Casey`s FPV is most likely FF gene poll and if it is it would leave him likely to be higher in those FF FPV`s preferences than Walsh.

Boom__Boom

blanch152 wrote: »

Ni Riadh is in serious danger, but there is a long way to go.

Carthy should be safe.

Yeah Carthy is 20k ahead of Casey, in 5th, so should be safe.

Walsh is 12,688 ahead of Casey so unless Walsh does very poorly in transfers and Casey does very well she'll likely get home.

charlie14

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yeah but that would make them more likely to be Rose of Tralee devotees, so swings and roundabouts:P

Doesn`t say a lot for either of the two so where one could win a seat due to winning the Rose of Tralee and the other could win it for nobody knows why.:cool:

Patser

What's the prognosis on McHugh? All weekend the exit polls had her flying high, and looking a cert, with her making grand announcements that she'd quit the Green party I'd they went into coalition with FG or FF. But now that the real numbers are out shes down in 6th. Is she likely to get transfers to get a seat?

badtoro

charlie14 wrote: »

Doesn`t say a lot for either of the two so where one could win a seat due to winning the Rose of Tralee and the other could win it for nobody knows why.:cool:

This is the depressing part of it above. I've been mooching around in a humour about it all day.

It feels like an important position isn't so much going to be filled but thrown away. Perhaps that's overly harsh, but after being convinced to take another look at McHugh (I've serious disagreements with the GP) as an individual I'm convinced she'd do a hell of a lot more good than either of the candidates who have better prospects of filling it.

An Ciarraioch

charlie14 wrote: »

Hard to know what to make of polls at the moment.
I didn`t say I thought she wouldn`t do well with the older crowd because she is a young lesbian.
I said that with the FF vote most likely older and conservative, it could negate her being a FG candidate plus being a young lesbian getting FF transfers when Casey`s FPV is most likely FF gene poll and if it is it would leave him likely to be higher in those FF FPV`s preferences than Walsh.

True, but geographically, Rabbitte's transfers would be far more favourable to Walsh.

blanch152

Patser wrote: »

What's the prognosis on McHugh? All weekend the exit polls had her flying high, and looking a cert, with her making grand announcements that she'd quit the Green party I'd they went into coalition with FG or FF. But now that the real numbers are out shes down in 6th. Is she likely to get transfers to get a seat?

She's very much a long shot. Realistically she would have to catch Carthy and that looks like a huge stretch.

SirGerryAdams

Where is everyon getting the latest counts?

normanoffside

blanch152 wrote: »

She's very much a long shot. Realistically she would have to catch Carthy and that looks like a huge stretch.

In all of Ming's transfer tallies she was doing very poorly. Even worse than Carthy.
No chance.

normanoffside

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Where is everyon getting the latest counts?

https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/results/?app=true#/european

badtoro

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Where is everyon getting the latest counts?

Twitter, Ming, Pat McGrath, Marian Harkin etc

normanoffside

Andrews 'out transferred' Daly again. He has gone 4k ahead after White's transfers.
It's looking like he'll hold 3rd unless they count Boylan transfers.

BarryD2

I wonder do rural voters for Sean Kelly realise he’s a main man behind the proposal to have the countryside in darkness till 9am mid winter! When and if that penny drops, he’ll go from hero to zero!