European Parliament Elections 2019

is_that_so

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

I've confused myself now....

Let's say 3 candidates have been eliminated. Do they look at all 4th preference votes and then get a % for each candidate? Then they dish out the number of votes using the % from the eliminated candidates votes?

Something along those lines but actual numbers of votes.

Squatter

cannotlogin wrote: »

Clearly a Casey fan given by your wild sweeping statements, jumping to conclusions and no idea of any facts.

Nice to see that I'm not alone when it comes to the "jumping to conclusions" bit!

Danzy

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It'll end up in the High Court yet.

I've actually thought it all out and made a clear and cogent argument on it, in my own head, in the event of it looking like a court appearance I'll write it out and end it there and then.

So rule it out.

SirGerryAdams

Icemancometh wrote: »

There's no percent for eliminated candidates, all votes are transferred.

Do they just look at the 2nd preference for each candidate that was eliminated?

I don't understand it really. Wish there was a worked example somewhere.

Sierra Oscar

Danzy wrote: »

I've actually thought it all out and made a clear and cogent argument on it, in my own head, in the event of it looking like a court appearance I'll write it out and end it there and then.

So rule it out.

Looking at the Act itself it seems Daly doesn't have much of a leg to stand on.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1133131130373382145

is_that_so

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Do they just look at the 2nd preference for each candidate that was eliminated?

I don't understand it really. Wish there was a worked example somewhere.

This one is simple enough.
https://spunout.ie/opinion/article/our-voting-system1

Just Saying

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Looking at the Act itself it seems Daly doesn't have much of a leg to stand on.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1133131130373382145

Interestingly I quoted at 18.41 from the Seanad debate on this where the Minister seemed to clearly state that the votes of Boylan in a situation like this would be distributed.However the reading of the Act would seem different

Gael23

That could end up in court tomorrow. Boylans vote should be transfrred

Kh1993

If Daly is looking for the boylan votes to be counted that seems to indicate Andrews is or will be ahead after Gannon’s redistribution?

SirGerryAdams

is_that_so wrote: »

This one is simple enough.
https://spunout.ie/opinion/article/our-voting-system1

It doesn't tell me how the votes are transferred.

Let's say Jimmy was given 1000 transferred votes. Then eventually Jimmy is eliminated. How are his votes transferred? Do they look at his 2nd preference even if he's say the 5th candidate eliminated?

Itssoeasy

So from what Gavan Reilly said on TV where normally in an election where they’d normally just elect the last person without reaching the quota is complicated because of brexit. Is that a fair summary ?

badtoro

Harkin saying on Twitter Smith likely to finish 5th with McHugh 6th.

SirGerryAdams

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So from what Gavan Reilly said on TV where normally in an election where they’d normally just elect the last person without reaching the quota is complicated because of brexit. Is that a fair summary ?

I think so.

Usually it's black and white, 4 people get seats so you wouldn't need to redistribute the 5th candidates votes as it makes no difference.

Really should have been clarified before the count.

blanch152

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

It doesn't tell me how the votes are transferred.

Let's say Jimmy was given 1000 transferred votes. Then eventually Jimmy is eliminated. How are his votes transferred? Do they look at his 2nd preference even if he's say the 5th candidate eliminated?

Let us say Jimmy started with 1000 votes. He gets 1000 transferred votes. he has 2000 votes from various sources.

If Jimmy is eliminated, then you look at the next preference on all of the 2000 votes.

Sierra Oscar

Gael23 wrote: »

That could end up in court tomorrow. Boylans vote should be transfrred

It could do but it's hard to see how a Judge could rule in favour of Daly. The Act has clear cut instructions for dealing with the scenario that has now arisen.

I don't see any reason for the Act to be declared unconstitutional either ...

Larbre34

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

It doesn't tell me how the votes are transferred.

Let's say Jimmy was given 1000 transferred votes. Then eventually Jimmy is eliminated. How are his votes transferred? Do they look at his 2nd preference even if he's say the 5th candidate eliminated?

They look at the next preference that is still in play, whether thats 2nd, 3rd etc. By in play I mean if the 2nd pref is a candidate already elected or eliminated, you move down the ballot. I've worked enough counts in my time to have seen 12th and 13th preferences count for distribution.

Gael23

badtoro wrote: »

Harkin saying on Twitter Smith likely to finish 5th with McHugh 6th.

What about Maria Walsh?

Larbre34

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I don't see any reason for the Act to be declared unconstitutional either ...

If that were to be tested by Daly or other taking a case, it certainly wouldn't be a rushed consideration. Mind you, Daly has time on her side with Brexit, Andrews could take the 3rd seat under a big asterisk.

For Forks Sake

Gael23 wrote: »

What about Maria Walsh?

4th seat. Or so Ming reckons anyway.

https://twitter.com/lukeming/status/1133133173309739010

Sierra Oscar

Larbre34 wrote: »

If that were to be tested by Daly or other taking a case, it certainly wouldn't be a rushed consideration. Mind you, Daly has time on her side with Brexit, Andrews could take the 3rd seat under a big asterisk.

If the Act was declared unconstitutional then you would probably have to re-run all of the European Elections. I can't see that happening!

You're right about it not being a rushed consideration for a constitutional judgement, but I don't think it will come close to that anyway. The Court usually deals with applications relating to 'live' electoral cases swiftly so I don't think it will go on too long if it comes to that. Guess we will have to wait and see.

Danzy

At the moment there are a set no of seats in existence that need to be filled, 3, there may be a 4th, there may be not, but it isn't there now.

They should proceed on the basis of what already is, not what may or may not be

normanoffside

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It could do but it's hard to see how a Judge could rule in favour of Daly. The Act has clear cut instructions for dealing with the scenario that has now arisen.

I don't see any reason for the Act to be declared unconstitutional either ...

But the act is talking about a scenario whereby it doesn't matter who is 3rd or 4th as both are equally elected.
In this case, 4th might possibly never get to take their seat.

Squatter

Gael23 wrote: »

That could end up in court tomorrow. Boylans vote should be transfrred

No it shouldn't.

The instant that she is declared eliminated, the count is over. Seat placings will be in the order that they were at when the final 3 candidates were left.

And, whether or not it goes to court, that's how it will end up.

Gael23

Did Andrews reach the quota? He's not elected otherwise. I haven't seen numbers

Spanish Eyes

What always puzzled me was exactly WHICH votes are re distributed when a candidate has exceeded the quota.

I gather it is a sample at random from the pile equal to the number of votes in excess of the quota. I think that's right. I hope the tallymen have their eyes peeled!

Larbre34

Gael23 wrote: »

Did Andrews reach the quota? He's not elected otherwise. I haven't seen numbers

Of course he's elected. Its common in the Irish system to be deemed elected but not reaching the quota. Its 'last man standing' he has the next highest number of votes once all others are elected or eliminated.

charlie14

Gael23 wrote: »

Did Andrews reach the quota? He's not elected otherwise. I haven't seen numbers

You don`t need to reach a quota to be deemed elected

L1011

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

What always puzzled me was exactly WHICH votes are re distributed when a candidate has exceeded the quota.

I gather it is a sample at random from the pile equal to the number of votes in excess of the quota. I think that's right. I hope the tallymen have their eyes peeled!

Its the last votes off the stack (well, the required number from the last parcel, which brings in some randomness again); which can have a very significant distortion on where they came from

This is why there have been a few cases of other candidates requesting a recount when someone below them gets eliminated on a tiny margin as it could change where votes end up being.

The only difference is if its on the first count they count the lot and assign proportionally. Northern Ireland does this every time, and has fractional votes too.

Rather old but still accurate paper on how this can cause changes: http://www.tara.tcd.ie/bitstream/handle/2262/68751/v16n11984_1.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Gael23

charlie14 wrote: »

You don`t need to reach a quota to be deemed elected

No but Clalre Dalys argument is that Bylaws transfers may see her surpass Andrews, is that not valid?

Sierra Oscar

normanoffside wrote: »

But the act is talking about a scenario whereby it doesn't matter who is 3rd or 4th as both are equally elected.
In this case, 4th might possibly never get to take their seat.

It doesn't matter if we think there's a chance that the 4th might not get to take up their seat. In the eyes of the law they will and therefore both Andrews and Daly are deemed elected. Under the law the count comes to an end once all seats have been filled, hence there is absolutely no room for Boylan's votes to be redistributed as a result. It would be unlawful to do so. That's my interpertation of the Act anyway (and the Electoral Act in general). Hard to see any other outcome.