European Parliament Elections 2019

expectationlost · 16-04-2019 11:43pm

European Parliament Elections Ireland replacement list are up https://corkcityreturningofficer.com/ https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/

Midlands North West European Election candidates replacement list https://www.mayoreturningofficer.com/copy-of-nominations

former MEP Kathy Sinnott is on the replacement list for 3 European election candidates

blackwhite · 17-04-2019 7:44am

expectationlost wrote: »

European Parliament Elections Ireland replacement list are up https://corkcityreturningofficer.com/ https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/

former MEP Kathy Sinnott is on the replacement list for 3 European election candidates

Surprised at Sinnott associating with Gemma O’Doherty tbh

ArmaniJeanss · 17-04-2019 12:20pm

blackwhite wrote: »

Surprised at Sinnott associating with Gemma O’Doherty tbh

Didn't she (KS) turn very rightwing conservative over the last few years, associating with John Waters's group against the SSM referendum and going on hunger strike over abortion?
Seems a good fit to the politics GO'D has recently embraced.

blackwhite · 17-04-2019 12:42pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Didn't she (KS) turn very rightwing conservative over the last few years, associating with John Waters's group against the SSM referendum and going on hunger strike over abortion?
Seems a good fit to the politics GO'D has recently embraced.

She did - but I'd thought her years of campaigning for those with disabilities would put her at fairly significant odds with GO'D's positions on autism, etc.

Geuze · 17-04-2019 12:52pm

expectationlost wrote: »

former MEP Kathy Sinnott is on the replacement list for 3 European election candidates

What is a replacement list?

An Ciarraioch · 17-04-2019 12:58pm

Geuze wrote: »

What is a replacement list?

If a MEP subsequently gets elected to a national parliament, they nominate a like-minded individual to slot into their European seat - no by-elections.

17-04-2019 1:58pm

Geuze wrote: »

What is a replacement list?

Paul Murphy was No3 or 4 on Joe Higgins replacement list. When Higgins was elected TD, his First and second choices were unable/unwilling to go to Europe so his PA, Paul Murphy got the job. I think Clare Daly was first reserve.

L1011 · 17-04-2019 3:00pm

Higgins replacement list from 2009:

Socialist Party
1. DALY, CLARE
2. COPPINGER, RUTH
3. MURPHY, MICK
4. KEANE, DENIS
5. MURPHY, PAUL (replaced HIGGINS, JOE in 2011)

Daly had been elected to the Dáil already, not sure why the others opted out.

I have seen someone show a screenshot of the top of Casey's list for this time out but I can't find the actual list myself. First replacement is apparently his wife!

An Ciarraioch · 17-04-2019 3:29pm

L1011 wrote: »

Higgins replacement list from 2009:

Socialist Party
1. DALY, CLARE
2. COPPINGER, RUTH
3. MURPHY, MICK
4. KEANE, DENIS
5. MURPHY, PAUL (replaced HIGGINS, JOE in 2011)

Daly had been elected to the Dáil already, not sure why the others opted out.

I have seen someone show a screenshot of the top of Casey's list for this time out but I can't find the actual list myself. First replacement is apparently his wife!

Yes, see expectationlost's link on previous page - first is his wife, and other two are friends from Donegal.

robwen · 17-04-2019 3:32pm

Quick look at the South seems like a good few have family members down for replacements outside of the main partys

L1011 · 17-04-2019 3:37pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Yes, see expectationlost's link on previous page - first is his wife, and other two are friends from Donegal.

I was looking at that page and didn't see due to the really odd formatting they used. Just thought it was more candidates when scrolling quickly!

An Ciarraioch · 18-04-2019 3:02pm

Unsurprisingly, Naomi Long is running for Alliance in NI:

http://twitter.com/allianceparty/status/1118873893215846401

L1011 · 18-04-2019 4:36pm

Murphy has said they will not be doing the two counts and just furloughing the last in Dublin and South; but they've changed their minds so often at this stage they could change again

If a sitting TD gets that last place, do they have to resign due to dual mandate or not I wonder? Plenty of sitting TDs running in both constituencies. Obviously they would have to if de-furloughed

expectationlost · 18-04-2019 4:55pm

L1011 wrote: »

Murphy has said they will not be doing the two counts and just furloughing the last in Dublin and South; but they've changed their minds so often at this stage they could change again

If a sitting TD gets that last place, do they have to resign due to dual mandate or not I wonder? Plenty of sitting TDs running in both constituencies. Obviously they would have to if de-furloughed

https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/act/2019/7/eng/enacted/a0719.pdf

d)in subsection 4A—(i)by the substitution of the following paragraph for paragraph (a):“(a)A person who is elected under this Act to be a representative in theParliament, and who, when so elected, is a member of either Houseof the Oireachtas, shall on such election and no later than taking uphis or her seat in the Parliament, on the date specified by theParliament for the taking up of such seats, cease to be a member ofthe House of the Oireachtas concerned.”,

and(ii)by the substitution of the following paragraph for paragraph (b):“(b)A person who pursuant to section 19 of this Act is to be regarded ashaving been elected to be a representative in the Parliament orwhen he or she commences to be so regarded, and no later thantaking up his or her seat in the Parliament, on the date specified bythe Parliament for the taking up of such seats, shall cease to be amember of the House of the Oireachtas concerned.”

18-04-2019 4:58pm

L1011 wrote: »

Murphy has said they will not be doing the two counts and just furloughing the last in Dublin and South; but they've changed their minds so often at this stage they could change again

If a sitting TD gets that last place, do they have to resign due to dual mandate or not I wonder? Plenty of sitting TDs running in both constituencies. Obviously they would have to if de-furloughed

I would imagine that the sitting TDs don’t expect to be re elected so are just hedging their bets.

An Ciarraioch · 18-04-2019 4:59pm

Eastwood and Kennedy also confirmed today by SDLP and UUP.

L1011 · 18-04-2019 6:54pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I would imagine that the sitting TDs don’t expect to be re elected so are just hedging their bets.

Fitzgerald will get re-elected in a heartbeat - she'll be in before the last seat though. Billy Kelleher is in no trouble. Wallace is almost certain to get re-elected although nowhere near as decisively as in '11.

Daly might be in a little danger, Doyle also. But they're not guaranteed to be out.

It is extremely likely that Fitzgerald and Kelleher will get elected; which will upset the Dáil arithmetic quite severely. Can't see either writ being moved as there's a damn good chance they'd retain neither (Lynch to win the same constituency twice at by-elections? Possible); meaning they've 6 months max to call a GE really.

MFPM · 18-04-2019 8:06pm

L1011 wrote: »

Fitzgerald will get re-elected in a heartbeat - she'll be in before the last seat though. Billy Kelleher is in no trouble. Wallace is almost certain to get re-elected although nowhere near as decisively as in '11.

Daly might be in a little danger, Doyle also. But they're not guaranteed to be out.

It is extremely likely that Fitzgerald and Kelleher will get elected; which will upset the Dáil arithmetic quite severely. Can't see either writ being moved as there's a damn good chance they'd retain neither (Lynch to win the same constituency twice at by-elections? Possible); meaning they've 6 months max to call a GE really.

In danger of being relected to the Dail? That's simply absurd, she is a shoo in.

Wallace is almost certain to get re-elected although nowhere near as decisively as in '11.

You forgot about 2016.

In 2016 his vote dropped from 2011 and while I think he might be elected - it's by no means guranteed.

blanch152 · 18-04-2019 8:52pm

L1011 wrote: »

Fitzgerald will get re-elected in a heartbeat - she'll be in before the last seat though. Billy Kelleher is in no trouble. Wallace is almost certain to get re-elected although nowhere near as decisively as in '11.

Daly might be in a little danger, Doyle also. But they're not guaranteed to be out.

It is extremely likely that Fitzgerald and Kelleher will get elected; which will upset the Dáil arithmetic quite severely. Can't see either writ being moved as there's a damn good chance they'd retain neither (Lynch to win the same constituency twice at by-elections? Possible); meaning they've 6 months max to call a GE really.

Wallace will be under threat from two sources. Firstly, Sinn Fein will target his voters to try and take the fifth seat in Wexford, leaving him vulnerable. Secondly, Malcolm Byrne will have name recognition from the Euro campaign and could take a second FF seat. His best bet is if Howlin is seen as yesterday's man.

In Clare Daly's case, the two big parties are more likely to target Brendan Ryan than her. However, there are boundary changes in Dublin again, so haven't a thought on how they might affect her.

I agree with you re general election, in fact I wouldn't rule one out in May yet if it becomes clear that the full Brexit extension to October will be needed.

MFPM · 18-04-2019 8:57pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Wallace will be under threat from two sources. Firstly, Sinn Fein will target his voters to try and take the fifth seat in Wexford, leaving him vulnerable. Secondly, Malcolm Byrne will have name recognition from the Euro campaign and could take a second FF seat. His best bet is if Howlin is seen as yesterday's man.

In Clare Daly's case, the two big parties are more likely to target Brendan Ryan than her. However, there are boundary changes in Dublin again, so haven't a thought on how they might affect her.

I agree with you re general election, in fact I wouldn't rule one out in May yet if it becomes clear that the full Brexit extension to October will be needed.

Unless I'm mistaken there have been no changes to DF. It's a 5 seater and Daly will sail home. O'Brien/Daly/Reilly/Farrell....last two between an imploding labour candidate in the form of Ryan and Clifford-Lee (FF).

blanch152 · 18-04-2019 9:51pm

MFPM wrote: »

Unless I'm mistaken there have been no changes to DF. It's a 5 seater and Daly will sail home. O'Brien/Daly/Reilly/Farrell....last two between an imploding labour candidate in the form of Ryan and Clifford-Lee (FF).

If there are no changes, I would agree with that, based on the current polls.

Edit: Confused by the Reilly reference. Would see SF 1 (O'Reilly), Daly, Farrell, O'Brien, and the last seat between FF and FG.

MFPM · 19-04-2019 8:16am

blanch152 wrote: »

If there are no changes, I would agree with that, based on the current polls.

Edit: Confused by the Reilly reference. Would see SF 1 (O'Reilly), Daly, Farrell, O'Brien, and the last seat between FF and FG.

I meant O'Reilly - J.Reilly is done, doubt he'll be a candidate though if Daly were to win a Euro seat he might be tempted.

man98 · 19-04-2019 11:59am

L1011 wrote: »

Fitzgerald will get re-elected in a heartbeat - she'll be in before the last seat though. Billy Kelleher is in no trouble. Wallace is almost certain to get re-elected although nowhere near as decisively as in '11.

Daly might be in a little danger, Doyle also. But they're not guaranteed to be out.

It is extremely likely that Fitzgerald and Kelleher will get elected; which will upset the Dáil arithmetic quite severely. Can't see either writ being moved as there's a damn good chance they'd retain neither (Lynch to win the same constituency twice at by-elections? Possible); meaning they've 6 months max to call a GE really.

I don't see Lynch taking a seat in a by election, nor do I see her getting a seat in a general election - as much as that'd be great to see. She was an excellent public rep.

Wallace is by no means guaranteed. People are moving away from him slowly, with the only consolation being that the same exodus exists from SF. Malcolm Byrne will not win here as he was not selected as a candidate - Lisa McDonald is the second FFer and she comes across as smarmy and arrogant - perfect material for a second term in the Seanad, but won't be elected unless there's a huge wave to FF. I see the status quo being returned in both CN-C and Wexford following the next election given an upward FG and stagnant FF trajectory.

An Ciarraioch · 19-04-2019 1:31pm

Surprising that the Soc Dems still haven't declared which European grouping they would sit with, if elected - the European Socialists seem the obvious option, but some centre-left parties are members of the Green bloc.

RainNeverBow · 19-04-2019 2:34pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Surprising that the Soc Dems still haven't declared which European grouping they would sit with, if elected - the European Socialists seem the obvious option, but some centre-left parties are members of the Green bloc.

Clare Daly said she thinks the groups will shift and move with all the new populists after May so she's waiting to see, I imagine it's the same logic. Also other parties can block them join EP parties

murphaph · 19-04-2019 9:47pm

Polling card arrived yesterday so that's one less vote for the AfD in a constituency that votes far too much for them.

Spanish Eyes · 19-04-2019 9:49pm

Honestly, if you asked people who their MEPs are, I wonder if they would know.

Faugheen · 20-04-2019 7:17am

L1011 wrote: »

Fitzgerald will get re-elected in a heartbeat - she'll be in before the last seat though. Billy Kelleher is in no trouble. Wallace is almost certain to get re-elected although nowhere near as decisively as in '11.

Daly might be in a little danger, Doyle also. But they're not guaranteed to be out.

It is extremely likely that Fitzgerald and Kelleher will get elected; which will upset the Dáil arithmetic quite severely. Can't see either writ being moved as there's a damn good chance they'd retain neither (Lynch to win the same constituency twice at by-elections? Possible); meaning they've 6 months max to call a GE really.

Daly in danger? Not a chance. She’d walk back into her Dail seat. She’s a really popular politician.

She’ll sail into this seat as well.

blackwhite · 20-04-2019 10:03am

Faugheen wrote: »

Daly in danger? Not a chance. She’d walk back into her Dail seat. She’s a really popular politician.

She’ll sail into this seat as well.

Haven’t seen any polls published for the Europeans yet, but you’re stretching a bit to say she’ll “sail into this seat”.

She’s never managed to top the poll in her own Dáil constituency. She will hoover up votes in some areas, but will struggle massively for transfers in a lot of areas too.

She’s in with a chance, but it’ll most likely be a tough battle between herself and Boylan for a seat

MFPM · 20-04-2019 2:29pm

blackwhite wrote: »

Haven’t seen any polls published for the Europeans yet, but you’re stretching a bit to say she’ll “sail into this seat”.

She’s never managed to top the poll in her own Dáil constituency. She will hoover up votes in some areas, but will struggle massively for transfers in a lot of areas too.

She’s in with a chance, but it’ll most likely be a tough battle between herself and Boylan for a seat

Haven’t seen any polls published for the Europeans yet, but you’re stretching a bit to say she’ll “sail into this seat”.

There was a poll that put at her at 20% but I doubt its veracity. It is an overstatement to say she'll sail into a seat but you're as guilty for under playing her chances with sketchy enough evidence.

She’s never managed to top the poll in her own Dáil constituency.

So what? Lynn Boylan was eliminated on the first countin Kerry south in 2007 and couldn't get elected to the council in 2009 - she then topped the poll in Dublin in 2014 with 23% of the vote.

but will struggle massively for transfers in a lot of areas too.

I think you've got this wrong. IMO Daly will be one of the most transfer friendly candidates in the field. She'll get big transfers from the array of 'left' candidates - Harrold, Ryan, Gannon, White, Brien - but she'll get transfers from FG too - she'll be far more transfer friendly than Sinn Fein.

She’s in with a chance, but it’ll most likely be a tough battle between herself and Boylan for a seat

So you're assuming FF will definitely win a seat? I think Boylan and Daly can and will win with Andrews finishing 4th and will take up a seat if Brexit goes ahead.

European Parliament Elections 2019

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