European Parliament Elections 2019

Spanish Eyes

L1011 wrote: »

Its the last votes off the stack, which can have a very significant distortion on where they came from

This is why there have been a few cases of other candidates requesting a recount when someone below them gets eliminated on a tiny margin as it could change where votes end up being.

The only difference is if its on the first count they count the lot and assign proportionally. Northern Ireland does this every time.

Thanks for the clarification. Still a bit of a puzzle, but I'll get there!

Tough old job being a vote counter I'd say. But I am sure they know all the rules inside out.

namloc1980

Danzy wrote: »

At the moment there are a set no of seats in existence that need to be filled, 3, there may be a 4th, there may be not, but it isn't there now.

They should proceed on the basis of what already is, not what may or may not be

The Act upon which the election is based says otherwise. The returning officer can't ignore the law.

charlie14

Gael23 wrote: »

No but Clalre Dalys argument is that Bylaws transfers may see her surpass Andrews, is that not valid?

The only law seems to be the European act that for a four seater like this, when you are down to the last five, the top four are elected with no transfer of the fifth persons vote.

A Dub in Glasgo

Gael23 wrote: »

Did Andrews reach the quota? He's not elected otherwise. I haven't seen numbers

https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/results/?app=true#/european/dublin

Yes, he is elected as there are only two candidates left for the final two seats. The debate is whether they sould distribute the SF vote to see if it makes a difference to who got the third seat

badtoro

Gael23 wrote: »

badtoro wrote: »

Harkin saying on Twitter Smith likely to finish 5th with McHugh 6th.

What about Maria Walsh?

4th seat.

Bleh.

Larbre34

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Thanks for the clarification. Still a bit of a puzzle, but I'll get there!

Tough old job being a vote counter I'd say. But I am sure they know all the rules inside out.

Its not really, other than the massive amount of waiting around. The returning officer and his senior staff know the system inside out, they use non-networked IT to run the count and they liaise with the candidates agents and explain clearly each step. The ordinary army of counters get very clear instructions as to what they are looking for on the ballot at each step, beyond that they just keep to keep their head in the game, even at 4am.

Christy42

namloc1980 wrote: »

The Act upon which the election is based says otherwise. The returning officer can't ignore the law.

Indeed. Maybe they should have come up with a system to deal with it beforehand but right now I feel like it is all too messy as the 4 seater had a different quota to what a 3 seater would be.

So the order of eliminations and calling people elected at the lower quota is already knocking it off. This seems simplest.

normanoffside

South suspended for the Night.
It's a small sample size and could be down to some of the particualr independent candidates eliminated but Ni Riada is definitely getting more transfers than Boylan did.

namloc1980

This is what the Act says:

where two or more candidates are deemed to be elected at the end of a count, the candidate with the greater number of votes credited at the end of that count shall be deemed to be elected before a candidate with a lower number of votes credited at the end of that count.

Pretty clear cut. Once elected on a particular count the person with the higher total votes is deemed elected first. There is no provision to keep going to another count unless there is another seat to fill.

Larbre34

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/results/?app=true#/european/dublin

Yes, he is elected as there are only two canditates left for the final two seats. The debate is whether they sould distribute the SF vote to see if it makes a difference to who got the third seat

And they shouldn't.

In no other circumstances would a zombie seat arise, it would just be a seat and you turn up on the first day of school with everyone else. The EPE Act and the Constitution makes no distinction, as it shouldn't, you just have to take your medicine as lowest number of votes and go into limbo.

Sierra Oscar

Christy42 wrote: »

Indeed. Maybe they should have come up with a system to deal with it beforehand but right now I feel like it is all too messy as the 4 seater had a different quota to what a 3 seater would be.

So the order of eliminations and calling people elected at the lower quota is already knocking it off. This seems simplest.

Indeed. It's very messy. One potential option would be to do an entire recount as a three seater constituency, but that opens up massive problems in itself. The quota would change, the ratio of transfers would be different ... candidates could be eliminated in a different order. Hard to see how that could work in practice.

The easiest option and the one that's actually compliant with the law is to leave things as they currently stand - i.e. deem both Andrews and Daly elected and end the count.

blanch152

Danzy wrote: »

At the moment there are a set no of seats in existence that need to be filled, 3, there may be a 4th, there may be not, but it isn't there now.

They should proceed on the basis of what already is, not what may or may not be

If what you say is true, and that there are only three seats to be filled, then the quota was calculated incorrectly. Instead of being 20% plus one vote of the valid votes, it should have been 25% of the valid voted plus one vote. That would mean that we would have to recount all of the previous counts in a different way.

As we set a quota for four seats, that is where it finished.

Sierra Oscar

The Dublin count has been suspended until 11am. It's heading legal I'd say.

Boom__Boom

normanoffside wrote: »

South suspended for the Night.
It's a small sample size and could be down to some of the particualr independent candidates eliminated but Ni Riada is definitely getting more transfers than Boylan did.

The problem for NiRiada is that while she is picking up some O'Sullivan is doing better than her on transfers.
I can see O'Sullivan closing the gap slowly but surely.
I wouldn't be surprised if O'Sullivan out-transfers her in every single count up to Byrne and opens enough of a gap that there won't be enough left over transfers from Bryne after the majority go to Kelliher, for NiRiada to catch O'Sullivan.

normanoffside

Just to be clear though. Gannon’s vote has not yet been redistributed. Boylan is still officially standing.

Danzy

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/results/?app=true#/european/dublin

Yes, he is elected as there are only two candidates left for the final two seats. The debate is whether they sould distribute the SF vote to see if it makes a difference to who got the third seat

There is only three vacant seats now though.

In theory there might be a 4th, in time, but at the moment there is not.

blanch152

normanoffside wrote: »

South suspended for the Night.
It's a small sample size and could be down to some of the particualr independent candidates eliminated but Ni Riada is definitely getting more transfers than Boylan did.

Ni Riadh got less than O'Sullivan and Wallace on each count. That means Wallace will stay ahead of her and that O'Sullivan will catch her, if the pattern continues. Kelliher and Kelly are too far ahead of her as well.

That means at best she is in fifth place. The problem is that Byrne/Clune/Doyle behind her are also collectively getting more transfers than her. The rate of transfers between them will determine whether they catch her. As it stands, their combined vote of 172,587 is over twice Ni Riadh, and a final transfer rate of 30- 40% between them gives one of them a seat ahead of her, even if they only match her on transfers until then. As they are ahead, the required transfer rate may drop slightly from count to count.

Without accurate tallies of second and further preferences, it is too close to call, but I would be putting money on Byrne or Clune ahead of Ni Riadh.

charlie14

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The Dublin count has been suspended until 11am. It's heading legal I'd say.

South could go the same as it will stop with the first five deemed elected without any distribution of the sixth vote.

namloc1980

Surely the RO in South isn't going rogue?!

.

namloc1980

Danzy wrote: »

There is only three vacant seats now though.

In theory there might be a 4th, in time, but at the moment there is not.

The law says it's a 4 seater - with the 4th seat to be taken up at a point in the future.

Kh1993

charlie14 wrote: »

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The Dublin count has been suspended until 11am. It's heading legal I'd say.

South could go the same as it will stop with the first five deemed elected without any distribution of the sixth vote.

From Gavan Reilly tweet
“Team Daly say the returning officer in Ireland South has already made it clear he WILL distribute the 6th-place candidates' votes”

Seems a bit messy if different counts would be under different rules? Unless someone is mistaken..

Danzy

blanch152 wrote: »

If what you say is true, and that there are only three seats to be filled, then the quota was calculated incorrectly. Instead of being 20% plus one vote of the valid votes, it should have been 25% of the valid voted plus one vote. That would mean that we would have to recount all of the previous counts in a different way.

As we set a quota for four seats, that is where it finished.

Until Britain leaves there is no 4th seat, Britain is as likely to Be in the EU in 20 years as put of it as things now stand.

The 4th seat is where Schrodinger put his cat.

Loafing Oaf

Kh1993 wrote: »

From Gavan Reilly tweet
“Team Daly say the returning officer in Ireland South has already made it clear he WILL distribute the 6th-place candidates' votes”

Seems a bit messy if different counts would be under different rules? Unless someone is mistaken..

Unbelievable that this wasn't clarified in advance:eek:

mugsymugsy

Should have been run as a 3 seat from the start and work out who finished 4th to avoid any doubt.

Jamie2k9

Count suspended until 11am. I think it is only fair that transfers are included, its based on who got the most votes not who got the most 1st preferences.

namloc1980

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Unbelievable that this wasn't clarified in advance:eek:

In fairness there is a provision specifically in the Act to cover this exact scenario, so whoever drafted the law was on the ball and anticipated this.

That's not to say the courts may have a view if it goes there.

charlie14

Kh1993 wrote: »

From Gavan Reilly tweet
“Team Daly say the returning officer in Ireland South has already made it clear he WILL distribute the 6th-place candidates' votes”

Seems a bit messy if different counts would be under different rules? Unless someone is mistaken..

It is not up to the returning officer to make a decision on the count, basically off the top of his head, if Gavin Reilly is correct that the European act is what governs this election.


With Daly`s team just using the decision of a returning officer in another constituency rather than a legal argument I would be off the opinion Reilly is correct

blackwhite

Whilst I’d much prefer Andrews to Daly - I cant see how you don’t count it like a 3-seater when seat 3 has a greater value than seat 4.

Legislation may say one thing, but I’d imagine if taken to the Supreme Court then Daly’s argument will prob stand up

Kh1993

charlie14 wrote: »

Kh1993 wrote: »

From Gavan Reilly tweet
“Team Daly say the returning officer in Ireland South has already made it clear he WILL distribute the 6th-place candidates' votes”

Seems a bit messy if different counts would be under different rules? Unless someone is mistaken..

It is not up to the returning officer to make a decision on the count, basically off the top of his head, if Gavin Reilly is correct that the European act is what governs this election.


With Daly`s team just using the decision of a returning officer in another constituency rather than a legal argument I would be off the opinion Reilly is correct

I don’t disagree..

What happens if the returning officer in South goes on a solo run and does distribute the 6th place candidates votes? I’m sure s/he will be reminded of the law tonight given this debacle but interesting question nonetheless.

Loafing Oaf

namloc1980 wrote: »

In fairness there is a provision specifically in the Act to cover this exact scenario, so whoever drafted the law was on the ball and anticipated this.

That's not to say the courts may have a view if it goes there.

Well if you are correct, unbelievable that the Returning Officer in South is not au fait with the law...