European Parliament Elections 2019

robman60

All these saying 'the law is clear' are making the common misconception that judges just read the page and that's it, a textualist approach.

An alternative way would be to take a purposive approach. Look what the legislature intended to do in an overall sense in passing the law. It could be argued that votes are normally not distributed when all seats are filled, becaise there is no material difference between which seat one fills.

In this instance, there is a huge difference, so that might warrant considering the law in an overall sense, not just in a narrow, technical sense. I'm not saying this is clearly the answer, but it is wholly arguable in law.

kniggit

Kh1993 wrote: »

From Gavan Reilly tweet
“Team Daly say the returning officer in Ireland South has already made it clear he WILL distribute the 6th-place candidates' votes”

Seems a bit messy if different counts would be under different rules? Unless someone is mistaken..

If Daly gets South's implementation of the rules changed, it'll probably hurt O'Sullivan in the final count.
FGers and SFers aren't exactly noted for transferring to each other.

Larbre34

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Count suspended until 11am. I think it is only fair that transfers are included, its based on who got the most votes not who got the most 1st preferences.

No, its based on the law. Nobody in the Dublin constituency was elected on their first preferences as we have seen.

namloc1980

Safe to say there'll be plenty of people poring over legal documents tonight.

charlie14

blackwhite wrote: »

Whilst I’d much prefer Andrews to Daly - I cant see how you don’t count it like a 3-seater when seat 3 has a greater value than seat 4.

Legislation may say one thing, but I’d imagine if taken to the Supreme Court then Daly’s argument will prob stand up

If it does then the whole shebang will have to be re-run I would imagine.


Someone said here earlier that either a senator or minister said there would be eliminations up to the final seat to determine placings. If the poster is correct and no legislative measure was put in place to nullify the European rules, and nobody seems to be able to point to any if there was, then it was very negligent and shambolic by this government.

Kh1993

Seemingly Daly has overtaken Andrews anyway regardless of Boylans votes.

Coillte_Bhoy

Kh1993 wrote: »

Seemingly Daly has overtaken Andrews anyway regardless of Boylans votes.

Baesd on what? Gannon's vote hasnt being distributed yet or has it?

charlie14

Kh1993 wrote: »

Seemingly Daly has overtaken Andrews anyway regardless of Boylans votes.

Not exactly sure, but I think it has to do with the distribution of Fitzgerald`s surplus which would put Andrew`s ahead.

TCM

Kh1993 wrote:

Seemingly Daly has overtaken Andrews anyway regardless of Boylans votes.

Great stuff.

LuckyLloyd

I’d say Daly has a decent shot at overhauling Andrews from Gannon’s transfers to begin with. If so, the RTE reporting on this likely to be accurate - Andrews will be going to court trying to force distribution of Boylan’s votes.

Kh1993

Sorry source was Reilly and Kevin Doyle (Indo). But Fitzgerald’s surplus could break more back to Andrews. So I think the argument seems to be either count both Fitzgerald’s surplus and Boylans votes, or none.

charlie14

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Baesd on what? Gannon's vote hasnt being distributed yet or has it?

From what I can see Fitzgerald has a surplus of close to 6,000 which hasn`t been distributed either, and this would happen before Gannon`s elimination and redistribution.
If I am correct on Fitzgerald`s surplus, it seems that after both of these are distributed Andrew`s believes he will be in 3rd place.

brooke 2

Gael23 wrote: »

That could end up in court tomorrow. Boylans vote should be transfrred

I agree. From what I understand, only three people can actually go to Europe at the moment, so, Boylan's votes should be transferred.

charlie14

Kh1993 wrote: »

Sorry source was Reilly and Kevin Doyle (Indo). But Fitzgerald’s surplus could break more back to Andrews. So I think the argument seems to be either count both Fitzgerald’s surplus and Boylans votes, or none.

With a surplus and other candidates not reaching the quota that surplus has to be distributed.

Just Saying

Just Saying wrote: »

"Senator Warfield spoke about the order of election. What we are proposing here is something very similar to what happens in Seanad elections already, that there would be a complete counting of votes. If a person from a particular political party is the fourth person in Dublin and his or her party colleague is the fifth person, if the gap between the third and the fourth person is less than the number of votes to be distributed from the fifth person, the fifth person will be eliminated and that will determine the order of election. Therefore, the person who on the face of it might be finishing fourth could end up finishing second or third. We are talking about completing the electoral count to determine the order of election."


This is the reply given by the Minister of State in the Seanad Debate.I think its self explanatory.

It means that Andrews has very little chance of the third seat.I am surprised there isn't more media attention given to it.

That was what I posted at 18.41 about this.The quote is from Minister of State Phelan from a Seanad debate on the Bill.
Surely the Returning Officer would have received legal advice on this prior to the count.Its akin to a draw in a hurling match and the referee not knowing whether extra time should be played.Its bizarre.

Just Saying

charlie14 wrote: »

Kh1993 wrote: »

Sorry source was Reilly and Kevin Doyle (Indo). But Fitzgerald’s surplus could break more back to Andrews. So I think the argument seems to be either count both Fitzgerald’s surplus and Boylans votes, or none.

With a surplus and other candidates not reaching the quota that surplus has to be distributed.

If the surplus exceeds the difference between the candidates then it must be distributed.

charlie14

Just Saying wrote: »

That was what I posted at 18.41 about this.The quote is from Minister of State Phelan from a Seanad debate on the Bill.
Surely the Returning Officer would have received legal advice on this prior to the count.Its akin to a draw in a hurling match and the referee not knowing whether extra time should be played.Its bizarre.

The ref would have known before the game started what the rule was from the GAA rules governing that particular match.


Not much point in the Minister of State just saying something if there was a rule already governing if he didn`t do something to change that rule. If he didn`t then then he was negligent in the extreme in his duty.

charlie14

Just Saying wrote: »

If the surplus exceeds the difference between the candidates then it must be distributed.

Which it does by close on 2,000 votes.

Just Saying

charlie14 wrote: »

Just Saying wrote: »

If the surplus exceeds the difference between the candidates then it must be distributed.

Which it does by close on 2,000 votes.

It can't be distributed if Boylan is more than the surplus behind the fourth placed candidate after the distribution of Gannon's votes.

MFPM

Kh1993 wrote: »

Seemingly Daly has overtaken Andrews anyway regardless of Boylans votes.

Which is why FF started to bully the RO.

Just Saying

charlie14 wrote: »

Just Saying wrote: »

That was what I posted at 18.41 about this.The quote is from Minister of State Phelan from a Seanad debate on the Bill.
Surely the Returning Officer would have received legal advice on this prior to the count.Its akin to a draw in a hurling match and the referee not knowing whether extra time should be played.Its bizarre.

The ref would have known before the game started what the rule was from the GAA rules governing that particular match.


Not much point in the Minister of State just saying something if there was a rule already governing if he didn`t do something to change that rule. If he didn`t then then he was negligent in the extreme in his duty.

You misunderstand me.The quote was taken from the debate about the updating of the legislation to deal with this scenario.

Eric Cartman

4th count in mnw, casey 12k behind walsh but ahead of mchugh by 6k , if the ff and renua transfers work out he could still nail it

Thrashssacre

Eric Cartman wrote: »

4th count in mnw, casey 12k behind walsh but ahead of mchugh by 6k , if the ff and renua transfers work out he could still nail it

He certainly seems to have a shout looking at the eliminations that are yet to come. Can’t see him being much use all the same, then again I can’t really see anyone who’s to be elected as being much use, the greens are fanatic and will destroy my limited disposable income in extra taxes and reduces subsidies. Fine Gael are yes men in their grouping, Fianna Fáil are in Verhofstadts group are that guy is a loon wants all the nations of Europe to be beholden to the Eu for absolutely everything. Wallace and Daly are a bit of an unknown I guess but I feel they’ll just do similar to Ming.

Eric Cartman

Thrashssacre wrote: »

He certainly seems to have a shout looking at the eliminations that are yet to come. Can’t see him being much use all the same, then again I can’t really see anyone who’s to be elected as being much use, the greens are fanatic and will destroy my limited disposable income in extra taxes and reduces subsidies. Fine Gael are yes men in their grouping, Fianna Fáil are in Verhofstadts group are that guy is a loon wants all the nations of Europe to be beholden to the Eu for absolutely everything. Wallace and Daly are a bit of an unknown I guess but I feel they’ll just do similar to Ming.

Trhis is kind of my outlook on it , the EU has become a talking shop, it matters little who we send but casey represents my views, as ‘non EU impacted’ as they are.
With ff and renua on the chopping block and almost 80k votes at play theres every chance casey gets more than walsh, its sad how RTE hyped mchugh as i think theres little left for her in these eliminations, shell finish 6th

Thrashssacre

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Trhis is kind of my outlook on it , the EU has become a talking shop, it matters little who we send but casey represents my views, as ‘non EU impacted’ as they are.
With ff and renua on the chopping block and almost 80k votes at play theres every chance casey gets more than walsh, its sad how RTE hyped mchugh as i think theres little left for her in these eliminations, shell finish 6th

I’d be of a fairly conservative outlook myself. Casey in my view will do no good for my cause. He a blabbering idiot who hasn’t a notion what he’s on about. Anyone who completed there leaving cert could make a fool of him.

hill16bhoy

As regards the confusion in Dublin over the distribution or non-distribution of votes in Dublin, it surely has to run as a four seater, not a three seater, because the quota is for a four seater?

To run it as a three seater would have required a different quota, and that materially affects the way votes are counted - transfers and surpluses can break differently depending on the quota.

To run it as a three seater would require starting again from Count 12, when Ciaran Cuffe reached the four seater quota of 72,790.

A three seat quota would be around 90k.

Thrashssacre

hill16bhoy wrote: »

As regards the confusion in Dublin over the distribution or non-distribution of votes in Dublin, it surely has to run as a four seater, not a three seater, because the quota is for a four seater?

To run it as a three seater would have required a different quota, and that materially affects the way votes are counted - transfers and surpluses can break differently depending on the quota.

To run it as a three seater would require starting again from Count 12, when Ciaran Cuffe reached the four seater quota of 72,790.

A three seat quota would be around 90k.

That’s what I was thinking I don’t think Daly has much of a leg to stand on. She’s just clutching at straws.

Gael23

Thrashssacre wrote: »

That’s what I was thinking I don’t think Daly has much of a leg to stand on. She’s just clutching at straws.

She absolutely does have a leg to stand on

Calina

Gael23 wrote: »

She absolutely does have a leg to stand on

I woud like to see your reasoned argument given the seat is being counted as a four seater and the legislation is clear on what happens when 2 candidates are left for 2 seats.

MFPM

Thrashssacre wrote: »

That’s what I was thinking I don’t think Daly has much of a leg to stand on. She’s just clutching at straws.

You are aware that it was FF who initiated this process?