European Parliament Elections 2019

SirGerryAdams

So who wants the votes transferred? Daly or Andrews? Andrews is in 3rd now isn't he? So Gary Gannons transfers probably go in favour of Daly? So is it Andrews asking for the transfers as he thinks he'll be behind Daly after Gannons votes are transferred or is it Daly that's want it because she's in 4th currently?

MFPM

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

So who wants the votes transferred? Daly or Andrews? Andrews is in 3rd now isn't he? So Gary Gannons transfers probably go in favour of Daly? So is it Andrews asking for the transfers as he thinks he'll be behind Daly after Gannons votes are transferred or is it Daly that's want it because she's in 4th currently?

Daly wants them transferred, the RO intended to do so (as the RO in Ireland South also intends to do) until FF intervened which is why there is a dispute.

The RO should have announced the Gannon transfers, but for some reason he hasn't - I believe Daly is ahead based on those transfers. There is also an issue as to why he didn't distribute Fitzgerald and Cuffe's surplus and it's that surplus that Andrews thinks might keep him ahead but I believe that's not necessarily the case.

normanoffside

Eric Cartman wrote: »

4th count in mnw, casey 12k behind walsh but ahead of mchugh by 6k , if the ff and renua transfers work out he could still nail it

You are clutching at straws. He is 12.6k behind Walsh and just over 5k ahead of McHugh.
The top 4 is already decided.

According to Ming’s tallies Walsh will get substantially more transfers from the FF candidates than Casey. Walsh will probably get 3 times more than him given that his tallies included McGuiness who is already elected

golfball37

It was reported months ago that the counts in Europe would be done to accommodate both scenarios. IE if it’s a 3 seater or 4 seater they would count them both ways as you can get a different result. As usual in Ireland someone didn’t get the memo

Larbre34

golfball37 wrote: »

It was reported months ago that the counts in Europe would be done to accommodate both scenarios. IE if it’s a 3 seater or 4 seater they would count them both ways as you can get a different result. As usual in Ireland someone didn’t get the memo

Why on earth would they (the officials) do that to themselves? Quite apart from the fact one of those ways would be illegal.

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

You are clutching at straws. He is 12.6k behind Walsh and just over 5k ahead of McHugh.
The top 4 is already decided.

According to Ming’s tallies Walsh will get substantially more transfers from the FF candidates than Casey. Walsh will probably get 3 times more than him given that his tallies included McGuiness who is already elected

Anne Rabbitte's number 2s
https://twitter.com/lukeming/status/1132649651897864195

Smith's number 2s
https://twitter.com/lukeming/status/1132632862052769792


Smith is actually the only one who could break inot the top 4 based on those transfers from Rabitte. Casey and McHugh have zero chance.

FreudianSlippers

blackwhite wrote: »

Whilst I’d much prefer Andrews to Daly - I cant see how you don’t count it like a 3-seater when seat 3 has a greater value than seat 4.

Legislation may say one thing, but I’d imagine if taken to the Supreme Court then Daly’s argument will prob stand up

How so, there is very little vagueness in the wording of the legislation?

robman60

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

How so, there is very little vagueness in the wording of the legislation?

Well a constitutional challenge could say it is contrary to our principle of democratic government to not allow the votes of the people to determine who gets which seat where there is a material difference between the two. I think it could succeed.

The votes have to be distributed imo. Distributing the votes tells you which person the people have selected, in the order they have selected them. The votes need to be distributed

Coillte_Bhoy

MFPM wrote: »

Daly wants them transferred, the RO intended to do so (as the RO in Ireland South also intends to do) until FF intervened which is why there is a dispute.

The RO should have announced the Gannon transfers, but for some reason he hasn't - I believe Daly is ahead based on those transfers. There is also an issue as to why he didn't distribute Fitzgerald and Cuffe's surplus and it's that surplus that Andrews thinks might keep him ahead but I believe that's not necessarily the case.

I think its because his surplus was only 238 and wouldnt have made any material difference to the positions

Coillte_Bhoy

golfball37 wrote: »

It was reported months ago that the counts in Europe would be done to accommodate both scenarios. IE if it’s a 3 seater or 4 seater they would count them both ways as you can get a different result. As usual in Ireland someone didn’t get the memo

Well no doubt you 'got the memo' so can provide a link for this?

golfball37

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Well no doubt you 'got the memo' so can provide a link for this?

Heard it on radio.

Sparko

golfball37 wrote: »

Heard it on radio.

I think it was just mooted as a possibility, but one that was eventually ruled out.

Edit - links removed, cannot add properly on my phone ATM.

Christy42

robman60 wrote: »

Well a constitutional challenge could say it is contrary to our principle of democratic government to not allow the votes of the people to determine who gets which seat where there is a material difference between the two. I think it could succeed.

The votes have to be distributed imo. Distributing the votes tells you which person the people have selected, in the order they have selected them. The votes need to be distributed

Should you not recount the already counted votes? How many of the relevant votes would Cuffe have hovered up if the quota had been higher? This could have a serious effect on the race for 3rd as well.

And how long will this recount take?

This way is simpler or just decide the top 4 and have first preference be the tie breaker.

is_that_so

normanoffside wrote: »

Anne Rabbitte's number 2s
https://twitter.com/lukeming/status/1132649651897864195

Smith's number 2s
https://twitter.com/lukeming/status/1132632862052769792


Smith is actually the only one who could break inot the top 4 based on those transfers from Rabitte. Casey and McHugh have zero chance.

Yeah that does seem to address the fantasy of Casey of somehow surging past two others to get in. Unsurprising FF interswapping of transfers looks likely too.

charlie14

robman60 wrote: »

Well a constitutional challenge could say it is contrary to our principle of democratic government to not allow the votes of the people to determine who gets which seat where there is a material difference between the two. I think it could succeed.

The votes have to be distributed imo. Distributing the votes tells you which person the people have selected, in the order they have selected them. The votes need to be distributed

Under the present rule only the surpluses of those past the quota on the previous count have to be distributed when that surplus is greater than the difference between the next two candidates.
This seems to have been completely ballsed up on our side with the decision that the counts in Dublin and the South are for quotas based on 4 and 5 seats respectively when in reality there are only 3 and 4 seats available as the UK ran their European election.
Had the quotas been for 3 and 4, then there would have, under the rules, a continuation of the count to show 3 and 4 seats filled and the runners up in each case who could then qualify for the 2 "limbo seats" if or when the UK exit.

charlie14

MFPM wrote: »

You are aware that it was FF who initiated this process?

Looks that way from RTE report as opposed to Gaven Reilly`s but it looks more like Reilly being correct and RTE wrong in that it is Daly not Andrews.

Coillte_Bhoy

golfball37 wrote: »

Heard it on radio.

Ok but dont think it was 'official' Its amazing that there wasnt clear instructions. It came up in a pub chat the other night and there were differing arguments on how to do it but we juts assumed that the RO's would know exactly what to do

charlie14

Just Saying wrote: »

It can't be distributed if Boylan is more than the surplus behind the fourth placed candidate after the distribution of Gannon's votes.

Gannon`s vote doesn`t come into consideration until after the distribution of Fitzgeralds surplus which is greater than the difference between the next two candidates Andrews and Daly.

golfball37

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Ok but dont think it was 'official' Its amazing that there wasnt clear instructions. It came up in a pub chat the other night and there were differing arguments on how to do it but we juts assumed that the RO's would know exactly what to do

They should just go back to count 12 before anyone was elected and raise the quota to reflect a 3 seater. Then do it all again as a four seater. It could well turn out Andrews finishes 3rd in both scenarios but better to be sure rather than let this drag on when there’s a simple solution right now

irishash

The result in Mid-North-West is not worth speculating anymore. Ming has been on point every step of the way here. I trust that all the other candidates feel the same as there is very little noise coming out of Castlebar.

https://twitter.com/lukeming/status/1133294607029153792

is_that_so

irishash wrote: »

The result in Mid-North-West is not worth speculating anymore. Ming has been on point every step of the way here. I trust that all the other candidates feel the same as there is very little noise coming out of Castlebar.

https://twitter.com/lukeming/status/1133294607029153792

This was called yesterday, even before the first count, with "informed" consensus on the ground saying it was the most likely outcome.

Loafing Oaf

*eagerly anticipates Casey booster Eric Cartman going full Comical Ali*

charlie14

Just Saying wrote: »

You misunderstand me.The quote was taken from the debate about the updating of the legislation to deal with this scenario.

Apologies if my post was somewhat confusing.
My point is that if there was no legislation passed to nullify the EU legislation in place governing EU elections then a debate just does not cut it. Something the Minister should have realised and if he didn`t ensure legislation was passed to do this was remiss in his duty.
Quotas for Dublin and South should have been for 3 and 4 seats. Not 4 and 5 under the EU legislation as there are in effect only 3 and 4 seats available.

Christy42

is_that_so wrote: »

This was called yesterday, even before the first count, with "informed" consensus on the ground saying it was the most likely outcome.

You want a battle. Otherwise you are sitting around reporting nothing. The journalist knows it is over but wants to report something.

Probably hoping against hope that something happens to make it interesting.

SirGerryAdams

Walsh probably the worst candidate ever elected in Irish politics.

Christy42

I should point out that I am not excusing the journalist. Just pointing out why they are trying to raise the profile of the vote. They should just stick to the facts and stress what possible outcomes are likely.

is_that_so

Christy42 wrote: »

You want a battle. Otherwise you are sitting around reporting nothing. The journalist knows it is over but wants to report something.

Probably hoping against hope that something happens to make it interesting.

Actually it was Pat McGrath from RTE who reported that yesterday morning. Contrast too McGuinness with her "(quietly) confident" and Casey's "hopeful" on that last seat.

is_that_so

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Walsh probably the worst candidate ever elected in Irish politics.

Ivor Callely, Michael Joe Cosgrave, Conor Lenihan?

Eric Cartman

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

*eagerly anticipates Casey booster Eric Cartman going full Comical Ali*

But if the sunlight shines at exactly 15 degrees due east into the eye of counter pat mulligan from easky sitting at desk 3 and he has his 3:1 reading glasses on and his left hand arthritis isnt playing up and he’s had a good 2 cups of coffee with sugar in both because his wife didnt see it and give out , then he might mistake a preference for casey, disqualify the ff candidates and then by the slimmest of margins neither of the boorish women will get a seat and I can be happy knowing a man who doesnt like travellers went to europe.

irishash

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Walsh probably the worst candidate ever elected in Irish politics.

Liam Lawlor??

Any of the Healy-Rae's??

John O'Donoghue??

All depends on your party/political preference. Your statement is a little hyperbolic.