European Parliament Elections 2019

Donald Trump

dusty bin wrote: »

If they had used a 3 seat quota rather than a 4th seat Quota, would it have made any difference in the order of those elected? I presume, Fitzgerald would have still being unelected up to Boylans Transfers.

I suppose what could change is that if you voted for an eliminated candidate and gave Cuffe second and Daly third, well if there was one less seat and a higher quota, Cuffe might not have reached it and then that vote might have stayed with Cuffe until the end rather than going to Daly etc.

robman60

Can anyone provide one of the live spreadsheets for MNW? I have one up for Ireland South but it's actually proving quite difficult to stay up to date with the counts.

is_that_so

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Here's an older poll with a €9Bn cost. When the undecided are excluded - 50.4% said they would vote in favour, 49.6% said they would vote against.

The actual cost could be as low as £5.7Bn and that's before EU funds and grants. And if their economy follows ours rather than the UK's that cost should drop year by year.


NI was originally given 3 MEP's so that the region wouldn't just elect a pair of Unionist ones every time. Until now they've been electing a pair of Unionist ones every time , and a Nationalist one.

It would be better to work with a (much?) larger number as an initial cost would be far higher and some of that income might not be figures that could be relied on. Lots of little bits and big bits in there that need to be expanded on - size of Northern public sector, overall health funding North and south, local government funding of both, system of education, regional governance.

is_that_so

robman60 wrote: »

Can anyone provide one of the live spreadsheets for MNW? I have one up for Ireland South but it's actually proving quite difficult to stay up to date with the counts.

Liveish but it can be quite a bit behind.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YxOV_VKV2ujMhWhKPsQSJHa3KVlQWGPKHfVVipFbnBs/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
There's this Twitter feed but his live stuff is eh a bit messy! :P
https://twitter.com/patmcgrath

Sonny noggs

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I think Daly is seen to speak up on issues, (with Wallace tagging along). People like it when questions are asked.

Are they still ‘together’?

An Ciarraioch

robman60 wrote: »

Can anyone provide one of the live spreadsheets for MNW? I have one up for Ireland South but it's actually proving quite difficult to stay up to date with the counts.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YxOV_VKV2ujMhWhKPsQSJHa3KVlQWGPKHfVVipFbnBs/htmlview

charlie14

blackcard wrote: »

In theory, you have 2 completely different counts if there is a additional seat caused by Brexit. Say you have 100,000 valid votes. With 4 seats, the quota would be 20,001. With 3 seats, the quota would be 25,001. You could have someone deemed elected on the first count with 20,001 votes on the premise that there might be 4 seats. However, if Britain stayed in the EU, there should be only 3 seats. So a candidate with 20,001 votes might not pick up sufficient transfers to reach 25,001 votes and could miss out altogether

In reality there are only 3 seats for Dublin and 4 for South. The other 2 may or may not become available.
The quota`s for both Dublin and South should have been on that basis. 25% of the valid poll for Dublin and 20% for South. The count should have been carried out in the usual manner with the understanding that 4th place in Dublin and 5th in South would get seats if they became available.

They got away with eliminating the 5th placed in Dublin (where really there was no need to) by as much through luck as anything but that may not be the case in South.
Very shambolic and poorly thought through by the powers that be.
You point on a 20,001 quota that in reality should be 25,001, further shows how it could have been even more shambolic.

charlie14

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YxOV_VKV2ujMhWhKPsQSJHa3KVlQWGPKHfVVipFbnBs/htmlview

Gavin Reilly on twitter. Spreadsheets for all the counts

For Forks Sake

Gael23 wrote: »

South is shaping up to be Kelly,Wallace,Keliher and who after?

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1133454960379727872



O'Sullivan has been narrowing that gap to Ni Riada with each count. If she gets a chunk of Nunans votes she could be ahead

Gael23

Could Clune be a dark horse here if she Hoover’s up transfers like she did in 2014?

is_that_so

Gael23 wrote: »

Could Clune be a dark horse here if she Hoover’s up transfers like she did in 2014?

She's likely to get a good number from her running mate and probably some decent transfers from Labour. Definitely not out of it yet.

Just Saying

For Forks Sake wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1133454960379727872



O'Sullivan has been narrowing that gap to Ni Riada with each count. If she gets a chunk of Nunans votes she could be ahead

I'd have thought O Sullivan might pass Ni Riada and Clune will pass Byrne with Doyles transfers.It would look as if she will need to get over 40% of Doyle's transfers to get to 5th which is a big ask with the geographical factors.

I thought earlier she might need to be within 10/12k at the time of Doyle's departure to reach 5th and it doesn't look as if she will be with really only Nunan's transfers to help her.

Gael23

Just Saying wrote: »

I'd have thought O Sullivan might pass Ni Riada and Clune will pass Byrne with Doyles transfers.It would look as if she will need to get over 40% of Doyle's transfers to get to 5th which is a big ask with the geographical factors.

I thought earlier she might need to be within 10/12k at the time of Doyle's departure to reach 5th and it doesn't look as if she will be with really only Nunan's transfers to help her.

I think Doyle’s transfers will stay with Fine Gael as Harris’s did in 2014

brooke 2

Faugheen wrote: »

Wallace is actually a good politician. He's not one of these parish pump Independents either. He seems to understand that he's elected to represent Wexford but in the national interest. The fact he has a good track record of getting elected shows that the lack of parish pump politics says that Wexfordians are happy with that as well.

A lot more Independents can learn a thing or two about what a TD actually is supposed to do instead of acting like a glorified councillor in order to get votes.

I believe he spent very little on his campaign, in comparison to some, who spent a fortune.

robman60

I still think it will be O'Sullivan taking the fourth and Clune will get into the storage seat. I'd guess she will get the biggest transfer by a long shot from Nunan.

robman60

Gael23 wrote: »

I think Doyle’s transfers will stay with Fine Gael as Harris’s did in 2014

Harris didn't have any transfers. He was just eliminated and Clune elected.

An Ciarraioch

Healy-Eames and Rabbitte eliminations to conclude MNW proceedings for tonight.

is_that_so

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Healy-Eames and Rabbitte eliminations to conclude MNW proceedings for tonight.

I'd be surprised if they do both. Seems to be taking 3 hours or so per count!

Itssoeasy

Mick Wallace is now in second place ahead of Billy Kelleher according gavan Reilly. I certainly wouldn’t rule out Deirdre Clune at all.

is_that_so

Ming's view on MNW

https://twitter.com/lukeming/status/1133450958237839360

Eric Cartman

Casey still sitting at 5th after labour transfers, theres no left left to bolster mchugh and after fidelma its on to the FF decider card, its a small possibility but theres a hell of a lot of votes that casey doesnt need all of

Itssoeasy

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Casey still sitting at 5th after labour transfers, theres no left left to bolster mchugh and after fidelma its on to the FF decider card, its a small possibility but theres a hell of a lot of votes that casey doesnt need all of

Would Casey be friendly territory for FF transfers ?

is_that_so

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Would Casey be friendly territory for FF transfers ?

Some people are suggesting he is. The problem for him is that tallies Ming had, showed him getting way fewer of them from Smith & Rabbitte than Walsh. Rabbitte may well push Smith above Casey.

VinLieger

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Would Casey be friendly territory for FF transfers ?

The longer this goes on the more i think its possible, however look at the two FFers if the bulk of rabbitte goes to smith which is likely he probably leapfrogs casey.

I also think FF is far more likely to get eames transfers than casey.

L1011

I wondered whether Cahill (Irexit) would catch A Wallace in South, which would really just mean they went out in a different order - and she came relatively close seeing as she was >4k behind. Surprising number of transfers really.

Jamie2k9

L1011 wrote: »

I wondered whether Cahill (Irexit) would catch A Wallace in South, which would really just mean they went out in a different order - and she came relatively close seeing as she was >4k behind. Surprising number of transfers really.

Will admit I am a little surprised with her transfers as well. I think a major turning point for her was when she destroyed a FG Senator on a Limerick radio station as FG called for a boycott of an Irexit conference.

Had they been registered and taken part on TV debates makes you wonder how well she could have done. I cant find any campaign from her apart from the 60 seconds on RTE which I felt was poor from her.

normanoffside

This is some of the slowest counting ever

eagle eye

irishash wrote:

Liam Lawlor??

Any of the Healy-Rae's??

All depends on your party/political preference. Your statement is a little hyperbolic.

John O'Donoghue??[/quote]
I've no party preference and she is worse than all the above. She has no clue.

L1011

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Will admit I am a little surprised with her transfers as well. I think a major turning point for her was when she destroyed a FG Senator on a Limerick radio station as FG called for a boycott of an Irexit conference.

Had they been registered and taken part on TV debates makes you wonder how well she could have done. I cant find any campaign from her apart from the 60 seconds on RTE which I felt was poor from her.

They wouldn't have met either the TWIP or Primetime rules even if registered - the TWIP ones were made up on the fly to get Casey on admittedly (adding in getting >15% in a PE or something along those lines) but Primetime needed multiple elected reps.

She's still lost her deposit (if that registration route was taken) even with all the transfers.

Bet there's some rather surreal transfer figures - by policy you'd imagine nothing to GP/FG/Lab but there will probably be hundreds; and likely a large block to Wallace even though he's not similar at all.

Eric Cartman

is_that_so wrote: »

Some people are suggesting he is. The problem for him is that tallies Ming had, showed him getting way fewer of them from Smith & Rabbitte than Walsh. Rabbitte may well push Smith above Casey.

The issue is smith needs basically half of rabbites votes to overtake casey, not impossoble but not automatic

If that doesnt happen then theres 80k FF mostly rural votes at play, casey just needs 12k more of them than walshe , a young woman running first time for theor ‘sworn enemy’ party. Yet again very possible.

Edit : does anyone know what order the ballot paper was in, woth 40k spoiled is there any way that those people running down the ballot 1,2,3,4... would hit one of the remaining ff’ers first and then is casey or walshe the nearest one down.