European Parliament Elections 2019

robman60

Casey top of the ballot and Walsh smack at the bottom! It's all alphabetical. Will be interesting to see if it matters.

Fun fact I read that Ireland consistently has more TDs with surnames A-M than N-Z even though they're roughly similar in phone book.

Had a look at our TDs declarations of interest (so not each TD had equal length on the doc) and 65 or so pages of a 97 page doc were A-M. Absolutely incredible to think there are people sitting in Dáil Éireann who wouldn't be if there surname began with a different letter.

Amirani

robman60 wrote: »

Casey top of the ballot and Walsh smack at the bottom! It's all alphabetical. Will be interesting to see if it matters.

Fun fact I read that Ireland consistently has more TDs with surnames A-M than N-Z even though they're roughly similar in phone book.

Had a look at our TDs declarations of interest (so not each TD had equal length on the doc) and 65 or so pages of a 97 page doc were A-M. Absolutely incredible to think there are people sitting in Dáil Éireann who wouldn't be if there surname began with a different letter.

This ain't just a politics issue, it's a human behaviour phenomenon and happens in stock markets and other areas: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2390015

L1011

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Edit : does anyone know what order the ballot paper was in, woth 40k spoiled is there any way that those people running down the ballot 1,2,3,4... would hit one of the remaining ff’ers first and then is casey or walshe the nearest one down.

Alphabetical, as is the law here and is why we have massively disproportionate number of A and B surnames elected.

Somewhere, Australia probably, randomises the order per paper but that would make things like 2nd preference tallying effectively impossible so more annoying for the kinds of us who frequent this thread!

robman60

L1011 wrote: »

Alphabetical, as is the law here and is why we have massively disproportionate number of A and B surnames elected.

Somewhere, Australia probably, randomises the order per paper but that would make things like 2nd preference tallying effectively impossible so more annoying for the kinds of us who frequent this thread!

Probably the fairest thing would be to have a number of different versions of the ballot. More costly of course but the evidence suggests it's a huge advantage.

L1011

Eames trasferring 2k to Walsh and 2k to McHugh (and 6k to the bin) is quite surprising. Only 3k to Casey.

Rain Ascending

L1011 wrote: »

Eames trasferring 2k to Walsh and 2k to McHugh (and 6k to the bin) is quite surprising. Only 3k to Casey.

Not really. Geography counts for a lot here. Healy Eames is from Galway, Walsh from south Mayo and of course, McHugh is from Achill. Casey is Donegal-based. Voting for an all-female slate might also be a contributing factor.

Either way, the tallies reported by Ming have been a very good guide as to the order of magnitude of transfers. For example, for a Healy Eames distribution see
https://twitter.com/lukeming/status/1132671413352112128
It wasn't that far out at all.

Incidentally, for Rabbitte's distribution, see
https://twitter.com/lukeming/status/1132649651897864195
Based on this, one would predict that
1. McHugh won't catch Casey.
2. Smith will overtake Casey on this count.
3. The gap between Casey and Walsh will increase.

LuckyLloyd

L1011 wrote: »

Eames trasferring 2k to Walsh and 2k to McHugh (and 6k to the bin) is quite surprising. Only 3k to Casey.

I’m never massively surprised at how transfers fall for no hoper independent candidates. Eames would have had a few thousand genuine votes for controlling women’s uteruses, but she also would have had a couple of thousand ‘what the hell independent’ votes, and those transfer to bigger more credible candidates as the actual voting intention.

Wonder will Eames continue chasing the dream in the general election.

LuckyLloyd

Are they still counting in Midlands/NW?

Rain Ascending

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Are they still counting in Midlands/NW?

Yep, just one more tonight, the distribution of Rabbitte's votes. We'll have to wait until tomorrow for the elimination of McHugh. It's a bit tricky to predict who will be lowest after that elimination, Casey or Smith, but it should be close either way.

Kermit.de.frog

Mark Durkan cutting a lonely figure at the count


https://twitter.com/dibsfitz/status/1133087835475664898

Rebelbrowser

The lack of any up to date reporting on Ireland South all day has been amazing. It's like the count is a State secret.

Rain Ascending

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Either way, the tallies reported by Ming have been a very good guide as to the order of magnitude of transfers.
<<snip>>
Based on this [tally of Rabbitte's 2nd preferences], one would predict that
1. McHugh won't catch Casey.
2. Smith will overtake Casey on this count.
3. The gap between Casey and Walsh will increase.

11th count just in. Predictions #1 and #3 above came true. #2 didn't happen since Smith got just 60%, not 70%, of the transferable vote, possibly due to some of Anne Rabbitte's votes not being first preferences for her, but transfers from elsewhere.

Eric Cartman

Gao between casey and walsh is still only 15k with smiths 64k to be distributed , we’re really playing down the odds here, increasingly unlikely casey gets it unless a load of low preferences are in caseys court.

decies

Wonder will Grace o Sullivan hang on to 5th in Ireland south ?

An Ciarraioch

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Gao between casey and walsh is still only 15k with smiths 64k to be distributed , we’re really playing down the odds here, increasingly unlikely casey gets it unless a load of low preferences are in caseys court.

Of course it'll widen considerably after McHugh, given both are from Mayo.

odyssey06

Reading The Journal you would think someone had died. Yeah the exit poll expectations were unfair on her but the media reaction seems to treat her more like a kid playing at being a grown up than serious politician...
https://www.thejournal.ie/saoirse-mchugh-green-party-eliminated-4658851-May2019/

retalivity

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Mark Durkan cutting a lonely figure at the count


https://twitter.com/dibsfitz/status/1133087835475664898

How the hell did he end up at fg?
An opportunist, no sympathy here.

is_that_so

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Of course it'll widen considerably after McHugh, given both are from Mayo.

Smith is also expected to pass Casey with her transfers, which means Ming should get the quota.

Harry Palmr

The order of candidates on long lists will have to be looked at, no question and exit polls need banning as well!

Of course if this was being done electronically the presentation could be altered effortlessly to be fairer to all.

is_that_so

odyssey06 wrote: »

Reading The Journal you would think someone had died. Yeah the exit poll expectations were unfair on her but the media reaction seems to treat her more like a kid playing at being a grown up than serious politician...
https://www.thejournal.ie/saoirse-mchugh-green-party-eliminated-4658851-May2019/

Green surge narrative offers more excitement and it spread into the locals in a big way. There is not as much news in little to no change in these elections. McHugh needed some old head advice.

Christy42

is_that_so wrote: »

Green surge narrative offers more excitement and it spread into the locals in a big way. There is not as much news in little to no change in these elections. McHugh needed some old head advice.

She will learn and be back. The greens had a surge, the polls just over hyped it. She did far, far better than was expected a few months ago or even weeks. Similar with Cuffe and the greens made gains in the locals and across Europe.

SirGerryAdams

Of course RTE, big business wanted a green wave because it means more taxes. That means when RTE go looking for more money there's a bigger pie to get a slice of and everyone knows any tax brought in will have some or most of it taken out of environmental spending.

FreudianSlippers

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Of course RTE, big business wanted a green wave because it means more taxes. That means when RTE go looking for more money there's a bigger pie to get a slice of and everyone knows any tax brought in will have some or most of it taken out of environmental spending.

RTÉ doesn't get any money from general taxation.

SirGerryAdams

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

RTÉ doesn't get any money from general taxation.

The Broadcasting Authority of Ireland recently warned that RTÉ needed an “immediate” increase of €30 million and TG4 some €6 million in their annual funding in order for both public service broadcasters to continue carrying out their statutory remits.

Doesn't matter where it comes from, it's all from the one pot at the end of the day. If the government give 30m more to department of communications, that has to come from somewhere.

VinLieger

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The order of candidates on long lists will have to be looked at, no question and exit polls need banning as well!

Of course if this was being done electronically the presentation could be altered effortlessly to be fairer to all.

For what reason do we need to ban exit polls?

Also the order is alphabetical, can you think of a fairer non bias way to do it?

I also fail to understand how the current system is unfair to anyone?

Gael23

Can we expect a conclusion to MNW today?

is_that_so

Gael23 wrote: »

Can we expect a conclusion to MNW today?

Yep, McHugh first, then the other other two. Count resuming at 10. Even at the glacial 3 hours + per count that's done before dark!

FreudianSlippers

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Doesn't matter where it comes from, it's all from the one pot at the end of the day. If the government give 30m more to department of communications, that has to come from somewhere.

Can you explain how the BAI (Dept. of Communications) can give money to RTÉ when the licence fee is the purview of An Post?

Harry Palmr

VinLieger wrote: »

For what reason do we need to ban exit polls?

Also the order is alphabetical, can you think of a fairer non bias way to do it?

I also fail to understand how the current system is unfair to anyone?

Exit polls set up narratives which turn out to be wrong from which fake truths are built. For example we had "a green wave", then we "didn't have a green wave" The fact is the Greens have done very well relative to their previous position but now the narrative is that they have partially failed and 'sure south Dublin would elect a green wouldn't they?' when the it's clear that many did cast a vote for the Greens around much of the country.

On a long list alphabetic listing means candidates who are secondary status or new names to the contest but called Williams rather than Adams are at a disadvantage.

L1011

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Can you explain how the BAI (Dept. of Communications) can give money to RTÉ when the licence fee is the purview of An Post?

An Post collect the licence fee as a contractor; they don't control it in any way.