European Parliament Elections 2019

Laois_Man

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

And how do you prevent DOS or similar attacks on the blockchain server on polling day? And how do you allow the voter to verify their own vote without enabling vote selling and duress voting?

And yet again, what problem would be solved?

There is no such thing as a Blockchain server

The problem that gets solved is the one addressed in my post - your vote cannot be changed by some hacker!

Zubeneschamali

markodaly wrote: »

I am not saying either one is 100% mature right now, but the idea that we cannot even question paper voting as if Moses himself came down from Mount Sinai and proclaimed it sacred, to me is weirdly amusing.

You seem to be confusing the idea that we cannot question paper voting with the fact that no-one is buying your answers.

Rebelbrowser

normanoffside wrote: »

South Vote is in.
O'Sullivan jumps above Ni Riada for the first time.

Clune now just 2,000 behind Ni Riada with just Malcolm Byrne (FF) 80k to be transferred.

Only 3,500 separate O'Sullivan, Kelleher, Ni Riada and Clune for the 3rd-5th seats.

Obviously Kelleher will be safe but it will be tight for the last 3 seats.

No idea how to call this. Youd imagine most of Byrnes transfers will go to Kelleher and he will have a big surplus to be doled back out. Wallace will get elected too and will have a surplus. Wont be decided until after those all redistributed (presuming I have the system right).

With Ni Riada and Clune both Cork based there is no geographical distinction between them.

Clune did really well on transfers just gone but I wonder did she need a little bit more?

Who is most transfer friendly from FF votes and Wallace's surplus out of Ni Riada, Clune and O Sullivan? I'm guessing O Sullivan will be the most transfer friendly and with an extant lead should be ok?

Fan of Netflix

I'll stick to my prediction Ni Riada will lose out. Think FF will transfer more to the Greens and Fine Gael, obviously the other FFer will take a large chunk.

LuckyLloyd

South count offering unbelievable drama. How could you want e voting and instant results over this!!

Zubeneschamali

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

There we are a z-list celebrity bluffer about to be elected mad stuff!

No, Casey will certainly not be elected.

Danzy

I agree, Ní Riada is looking bad at the moment.

The big transfers ahead are from outside Cork.

L1011

A really bad FF transfer leaving Kelleher in cold storage would be hilarious if incredibly unlikely now. Had there not been such extreme bad blood between them you'd not even think of it.

Rebelbrowser

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

I'll stick to my prediction Ni Riada will lose out. Think FF will transfer more to the Greens and Fine Gael, obviously the other FFer will take a large chunk.

I think Clune and Ni Riadas totals wont change much at all on next count on reflection. A Wexford FF candidates votes are going to either go to the other FF candidate or to Wallace / O Sullivan

dusty bin

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Who is most transfer friendly from FF votes and Wallace's surplus out of Ni Riada, Clune and O Sullivan? I'm guessing O Sullivan will be the most transfer friendly and with an extant lead should be ok?

Will FF transfer much to the Greens? Kelleher and Wallace will definitely pass the quota I reckon. All depends on what each of their surplus would be. A big surplus for wallace suits Ni Riada and O'Sullivan, however I cant predict where kellehers will go (or how much byrne transfers to the women).

LuckyLloyd

Clune just benefitted by the two candidates most transfer friendly to her. It was always going to come down to this sort of ending for NiRiadh. I think she would have rolled the dice on FF transfers rather than Green or FG.

golfball37

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

South count offering unbelievable drama. How could you want e voting and instant results over this!!

I dunno why it took 8 hours ?

cruizer101

dusty bin wrote: »

Kelleher and Wallace will definitely pass the quota I reckon.

Wallance still needs 20k to pass the quota, thats 25% of Byrnes, would he get that much and even Kelleher needs 30k.
Either way I don't think there will be too much in the way of their surplus to be redistributed.

I think Ni Riada will be loser here but its very close.
Only 3% between the four candidates.

martingriff

is_that_so wrote: »

About €20m per plebiscite. What is causing the (irrational IMO) ire here is the sheer quantity of candidates slowing it all down. In the GE/locals it's generally all over inside 2 days.

The thing what some do not realise we have 3 large voting area with loads of people in both ballots 23 in the South and we are doing the counting from 1 place for each area. Having more then 1 count centre would help

Bass Reeves

Wallace needs 18k to hit quota and Kelliher needs nearly 30k neither will have much of an excess to distribute. Green party candidate will take a certain amount as well. I expect that a percentage will not transfer anywhere Ni Riada and Clune will get only 10-12 k votes split between them. Clune will want them to split 2-1 in her favour hard to see it happening.

I expect to see Ni Riada hold on by about the present margin

Danzy

L1011 wrote: »

A really bad FF transfer leaving Kelleher in cold storage would be hilarious if incredibly unlikely now. Had there not been such extreme bad blood between them you'd not even think of it.

All Kellihers posters on the Bandon Rd, near The Lough, in Cork are defaced with "Rat".

Many in his own local cumann are fuming that he ran at all, livid would not describe it.

bren2001

is_that_so wrote: »

About €20m per plebiscite. What is causing the (irrational IMO) ire here is the sheer quantity of candidates slowing it all down. In the GE/locals it's generally all over inside 2 days.

For €20m per plebiscite, I don't see cost as a reason for not moving to e-voting. That's a lot more expensive than I expected. There are a variety of other reasons for not doing (not that'd I'd agree with them).

Just Saying

eagle eye wrote: »

Just Saying wrote:

In fairness to Ming he called this from a long way out.Casey has no chance of overturning the deficit...it's clearcut McG,Ming ,Walsh and Carthy...Not sure who'll occupy third and who'll be fourth?

He got the order wrong though.

Do you know the order?? and does it matter????

Plenty on here and in the media were talking rubbish about being tight or Smith/Casey having a chance when his second preference tallies showed otherwise.

tobsey

dusty bin wrote: »

Will FF transfer much to the Greens? Kelleher and Wallace will definitely pass the quota I reckon. All depends on what each of their surplus would be. A big surplus for wallace suits Ni Riada and O'Sullivan, however I cant predict where kellehers will go (or how much byrne transfers to the women).

When Rabbitte (FF) was eliminated in MNW, 55% the votes went to the party colleague, 2.8% to SF, 3% to GP, 9% to Ming and 12% to remaining FG candidate. If that pattern continued in the South, Kelleher will comfortably get through the quota but Wallace would only be close to it. Clune would pass O'Riada and O'Sullivan, but O'Sullivan would stay ahead of O'Riada. Then the last count would be Kelleher's surplus, which could well keep the O'Sullivan ahead and the last three seats are filled without reaching the quota.

robman60

SF looking in a bad way. A long way from presidential hopeful to potentially 6th in a race to retain her seat. My guess would be Clune will get about 5k more of these transfers than Ní Riadh but nothing guaranteed.

Is maith an scéalaí an aimsir, mar a deirtear!

L1011

Danzy wrote: »

All Kellihers posters on the Bandon Rd, near The Lough, in Cork are defaced with "Rat".

Many in his own local cumann are fuming that he ran at all, livid would not describe it.

Echo had an article last night suggesting that the fight he's caused in the party could destabilise any Mayoral rotation deal involving in FF, particularly over who gets to run for the Dail.

Laois_Man

Clune must be a bit disappointed that she only got 20,183 transfers from Doyle's 41,416 plus Noonan's 25,958. I expected her to get a few thousand more which would have made a massive difference

Now the order of Seats 3 and 4 will probably change but looks to me like Ni Riada will hold out for the cold storage seat

robman60

Laois_Man wrote: »

Clune must be a bit disappointed that she only got 20,183 transfers from Doyle's 41,416 plus Noonan's 25,958. I expected her to get a few thousand more which would have made a massive difference

Now the order of Seats 3 and 4 will probably change but looks to me like Ni Riada will hold out for the cold storage seat

Remember what a bland politician we are dealing with though. Without the FG banner, she literally wouldn't get 1% of the vote.

AndrewJRenko

Laois_Man wrote: »

The problem that gets solved is the one addressed in my post - your vote cannot be changed by some hacker!

That’s not a problem of the current paper system.

What benefit would arise from a new blockchain system? Show us the architecture that you're proposing?

Wrongway1985

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, Casey will certainly not be elected.

Wouldn't have seen him in that light meself but fair enough two foolish representives one of them takes it. Walsh imo too big a gap to plug.

golfball37

Laois_Man wrote: »

Clune must be a bit disappointed that she only got 20,183 transfers from Doyle's 41,416 plus Noonan's 25,958. I expected her to get a few thousand more which would have made a massive difference

Now the order of Seats 3 and 4 will probably change but looks to me like Ni Riada will hold out for the cold storage seat

Its very close for the Brexit seat now. Clune's best two transfer candidates have passed but she is only 2k behind. Its very tight to call. If there wasn't a Green candidate in the running I'd call it O'Riada for the 5th but the presence of Grace O'Sullivan will take a lot of votes that O'Riada may have got from Byrne.
For that reason I reckon Clune holds and O'Riada loses seat.

AndrewJRenko

martingriff wrote: »

The thing what some do not realise we have 3 large voting area with loads of people in both ballots 23 in the South and we are doing the counting from 1 place for each area. Having more then 1 count centre would help

You need to have all the votes together when distributing surpluses or votes of eliminated candidates.

Danzy

L1011 wrote: »

Echo had an article last night suggesting that the fight he's caused in the party could destabilise any Mayoral rotation deal involving in FF, particularly over who gets to run for the Dail.

There are people from the Martin camp who have stopped talking to people in Kellihers camp who they were close friends with, bitter and personal words traded that I can't see a come back from.

It'll also damage canvassing in the future as both sides aren't going to help the other. There are now 2 structure in reality if not in name, for the same party.

AndrewJRenko

markodaly wrote: »

Its Wednesday afternoon, the vote happened on Friday last, the count is still going on and I am derailing this thread by questioning perhaps there is a better way to count or sort votes.

An irony explosion there.

You're derailing the thread by failing to educate yourself on the basics of your proposal before asking questions.

dusty bin

cruizer101 wrote: »

Wallance still needs 20k to pass the quota, thats 25% of Byrnes, would he get that much and even Kelleher needs 30k.
Either way I don't think there will be too much in the way of their surplus to be redistributed.

I think Ni Riada will be loser here but its very close.
Only 3% between the four candidates.

Wallace about 17000 away and Kelleher is about 25000+ away. I was thinking maybe that wallace would get the wexford vote and kelleher the FF, but after thinking about it, maybe it is out of their reach to meet the quota.

On another point, how will either FG/SF and Greens react to the 5th seat? Can it be classed as a seat at this point? Would Clune or Ni Riada class it as a retention ,and the greens as a gain?