European Parliament Elections 2019

Just Saying

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Grace O'Sullivan getting hampered by lack of transfers from the last counts. So it'll be just the one Green and the government can put all that environment stuff on the back burner for the next 5 years.

Kelleher has a surplus of nearly 12k.

Clone looks safe in 4th having got over 8k from Byrne.

NiRiada is over 500 behind O Sullivan...it will be really tight for the 5th seat.

Bass Reeves

You have to hand it superb preformance by FG in European election. Will Ni Riada's/ osullivan votes be distributed as well as Kelleher's excess. If Ni Riada's/ o sullivan votes are distributed it could change the order of candidates and see Clune in 5th position

AndrewJRenko

martingriff wrote: »

But all the presidential was not done in 1 place it was done per county. Now I know in the last it did not matter. You can do the counts collate each centres results to 1 place for the results

Presidental election and by-elections aren't PR-STV as there is only one seat to fill.

An Ciarraioch

Bass Reeves wrote: »

You have to hand it superb preformance by FG in European election. Will Ni Riada's/ osullivan votes be distributed as well as Kelleher's excess. If Ni Riada's/ o sullivan votes are distributed it could change the order of candidates and see Clune in 5th position

Yes - as Gavan Reilly says, that's the only reason Wallace hasn't been declared elected without reaching the quota (the gap to 5th being greater than Kelleher's surplus).

Just Saying

Bass Reeves wrote: »

You have to hand it superb preformance by FG in European election. Will Ni Riada's/ osullivan votes be distributed as well as Kelleher's excess. If Ni Riada's/ o sullivan votes are distributed it could change the order of candidates and see Clune in 5th position

I think the Boylan vote in Dublin was distributed to determine the 4th seat so whoever finishes 6th will have their vote distributed.

Based on the breakdown of the Byrne vote Ni Riadh got slightly more transfers than O Sullivan.If this is replicated with the Kelleher surplus the Ni Riadh will narrow the gap but I think will be around 150 short.

Gael23

Has Mary Lou got any option other than to resign as leader?

An Ciarraioch

MNW declaration on News Now.

Carthy +7,336
Casey +8,439
Flanagan +9,064
Walsh + 11,035

32,803 non-transferable votes.

L1011

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

MNW declaration on News Now.

Casey +8,000
Flanagan +9,000
Walsh + 11,000

69,825 non-transferable votes.

32k non-transferable on that count. 69k is total

Plenty of those are likely "work down the card, skip the scaries" ones which is how they ended up with FF and don't go to Casey

An Ciarraioch

Ming passed the quota - 121,824
Walsh 107,198
Carthy 98,732
Casey 78,362

So while Casey technically stayed in the hunt all along, the gap to fourth generally widened as the counts progressed.

eagle eye

An Ciarraioch wrote:

So while Casey technically stayed in the hunt all along, the gap to fourth generally widened as the counts progressed.

So FF should have brought him in. He'd have gotten them a seat.

gormdubhgorm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Richard Boyd Barrett is the last person you'd think would be on the left.

Agreed Joan Burton had a little dig at him for being 'the establishment'

https://twitter.com/i/status/1132618957905694720

In the clip above it showed it was a bit of a sore point for RBB who was born in Glenageary and went to private school in Dublin 4.

Like an eejit, on twitter I commented how I found the clip funny and RBB supporters circled the wagons...

I think you are not supposed to mention his background or anything of the sort?

You are not supposed to mention the pretentious double barrel name as well......

Wrongway1985

Not only are FF propping up FG in government they are propping up Deirdre Clune for Europe.

gormdubhgorm

Gael23 wrote: »

Has Mary Lou got any option other than to resign as leader?

I think it is looking shaky for her. She does not seem as sure of herself these days.
But what other choice to they have?
They want to soften the Sinn Fein image, maybe give Boylan the Sinn Fein hot seat down south. See seems more than capable, articulate and can fight a corner.
Pearse Doherty must fancy his chances though, as he is next door to the North.

The funny thing about Sinn Fein is for all the talk of the 'struggle' there never is public leadership struggle.

L1011

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I think it is looking shaky for her. She does not seem as sure of herself these days.
But what other choice to they have.
They want to soften the Sinn Fein image maybe give Boylan the Sinn Fein hot seat down south. See seems more than capable, articulate and can fight a corner.

A leader with no seat of any description would not be a good PR image

Peadar or O Broin are the only realistic options I can see; whether any would be more appealing is questionable.

Itssoeasy

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I think it is looking shaky for her. She does not seem as sure of herself these days.
But what other choice to they have.
They want to soften the Sinn Fein image maybe give Boylan the Sinn Fein hot seat down south. See seems more than capable, articulate and can fight a corner.

The next GE will be a big one for her as it'll be her first as leader and now the Presidential, local, and European elections haven't been good at all.

eagle eye

Doherty is the next leader imo. I think they just put him in behind a more experienced politician for a while. I think he is well liked nationally and it should improve things for them.

robman60

L1011 wrote: »

A leader with no seat of any description would not be a good PR image

Peadar or O Broin are the only realistic options I can see; whether any would be more appealing is questionable.

Peadar who? Tóibín? Sure they booted him and sent a lot of the grassroots with him.

I would have thought Ó'Bróin was part of the problem rather than the solution. By all accounts he is one of the leaders of the 'let's make SF a feminist party'. Not sure if his constitutional right to housing stunt would go down well, but it was a pure stunt as far as I'm concerned.

martingriff

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I think it is looking shaky for her. She does not seem as sure of herself these days.
But what other choice to they have.
They want to soften the Sinn Fein image maybe give Boylan the Sinn Fein hot seat down south. See seems more than capable, articulate and can fight a corner.
Pierce Doherty must fancy his chances though.

The funny thing about Sinn Fein is for all the talk of the 'struggle' there never is public leadership struggle.

Saw her on TV either Saturday or Sunday trying to defend it was not bad for Sein Fein seemed flustered. Maybe giving the control to the party to the appointed leader by the previous leader does not work.

gormdubhgorm

eagle eye wrote: »

Doherty is the next leader imo. I think they just put him in behind a more experienced politician for a while. I think he is well liked nationally and it should improve things for them.

Yeah I agree I just put him in my post above, I left the pc mid waffle/editing.

Itssoeasy

I mean surely Pearse Doherty is the next leader of Sinn Fein. I'm assuming Doherty is dyed in the wool Sinn Fein going back generations ? I mean Mary lou is to quote Liam Cosgrave is a blow in to Sinn Fein and she seems to have pissed off and upset a lot of the grassroots of the party.

gormdubhgorm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I mean surely Pearse Doherty is the next leader of Sinn Fein. I'm assuming Doherty is dyed in the wool Sinn Fein going back generations ? I mean Mary lou is to quote Liam Cosgrave is a blow in to Sinn Fein and she seems to have pissed off and upset a lot of the grassroots of the party.

He's a Scot though, born in Glasgow
He wouldn't be the first Sinn Fein Scot I supposed!

Gael23

They lost 78 local seats and 3 Europe seats. Don’t think any party leader can survive such a battering

Itssoeasy

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

He's a Scot though, born in Glasgow
He wouldn't be the first Sinn Fein Scot I supposed!

He was born in Scotland ? Well you learn something everyday as they say.

gormdubhgorm

Gael23 wrote: »

They lost 78 local seats and 3 Europe seats. Don’t think any party leader can survive such a battering

It will be interesting to see how they play it.
Will Mary Lou resign and say the party needs fresh leadership or that kind of guff?
Will a new leader be given Mary Lou's blessing or will we see an election contest?
Or will she do a 'Theresa May' and try and tough it out?

Loafing Oaf

Itssoeasy wrote: »

He was born in Scotland ? Well you learn something everyday as they say.

Like James Connolly, as I'm sure he would point out...

gormdubhgorm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

He was born in Scotland ? Well you learn something everyday as they say.

To be honest, I didn't know that myself until I looked him up.
I was nosy and wanted to see his family history to see if he had 'Republican Credentials'.
He moved back to Gweedore when he was three in fairness...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearse_Doherty

Itssoeasy

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Like James Connolly, as I'm sure he would point out...

Except Pearse Doherty will never be strapped to a chair in Kilmainham prison and executed.

amcalester

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Except Pearse Doherty will never be strapped to a chair in Kilmainham prison and executed.

Nor can he grow an amazing mustache.

golfball37

Gael23 wrote: »

They lost 78 local seats and 3 Europe seats. Don’t think any party leader can survive such a battering

3 Europe seats? Carty held on

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

ligerdub wrote: »

Do you want their starting point to be a member of the European parliament?

Well, people voted for her knowing she had no prior political experience so that will be her starting point, whether anyone approves or not. It doesn’t mean she’ll fail. As people have said, Mairead McGuinness was probably regarded in the sane way.