European Parliament Elections 2019

Zubeneschamali

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah, check out the number of people taken off jobseekers and Putin courses where they get paid the same or slightly more money, still paid by the state of course.

Unemployment is down and real employment is up, as in the total number of people and the % of people in employment are both up.


Income tax is up, which means money paid out to people by employers is up. Wages are starting to climb because employers need to retain staff as replacements are harder to find.


All of these things show that real employment is up and real unemployment is down.

gormdubhgorm

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

I don't see how its fair to link Sinn Fein with the murder of someone and atm robberies none of which they had anything to do with. Sadly though too many people group dissidents in with Sinn Fein and don't differentiate. I also don't see how anyone could think Mary Lou was a better leader than Adams. It all fell apart once Adams left.

There is another problem that Sinn Fein thier base level of support in the 26 counties is the blinkered type of voter - from working class areas.
The kind who think being Irish means wearing Celtic jersey's and listening to the Wolfe Tones. The type who like the mystic of the violent past that still hang over Sinn Fein.
Yet they have to try and keep those onside while trying to increase thier support.
It is a difficult balancing act.

The move from-
the focus on beards - Gerry Adams, Martin Ferris, Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin
to the focus on lipstick - Mary Lou, Lynn Boylan. Laidh Ni Riada, (and Michelle up North) is evidence of that.

But that trick seems to have gone a bit stale now?
They need a new trick / 'light cause' to ease more of electorate into voting Sinn Fein.
Tough job.

gormdubhgorm

Deleted User wrote: »

is there a way to count the votes theyd have lost with alternative approaches?

I don't know how they did it polls estimates.
I can't find the link which is annoying.

Zubeneschamali

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

the focus on beards - Gerry Adams, Martin Ferris, Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin
to the focus on lipstick - Mary Lou, Lynn Boylan. Laidh Ni Riada, (and Michelle up North) is evidence of that.

They lost people both ways in the last few years. A scatter of people left over bullying, a beardy issue, and Aontú left over abortion rights, a lipstick issue.

rossie1977

eagle eye wrote: »

In what way are things slowly getting better?

Drive the country roads and see the huge houses going up or the huge houses already up with 3-4 big cars sitting outside.

Go to the cemeteries and see the €10-20k headstones erected in recent years.

The planes are full leaving and returning to Ireland of people clearly going or coming on holidays. The hotel prices are insane regardless where you go in Ireland even on a Tuesday/Wednesday night.

Not saying everyone has money but many have and they are spending it.

Fan of Netflix

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

There is another problem that Sinn Fein thier base level of support in the 26 counties is the blinkered type of voter - from working class areas.
The kind who think being Irish means wearing Celtic jersey's and listening to the Wolfe Tones. The type who like the mystic of the violent past that still hang over Sinn Fein.
Yet they have to try and keep those onside while trying to increase thier support.
It is a difficult balancing act.

The move from-
the focus on beards - Gerry Adams, Martin Ferris, Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin
to the focus on lipstick - Mary Lou, Lynn Boylan. Laidh Ni Riada, (and Michelle up North) is evidence of that.

But that trick seems to have gone a bit stale now?
They need a new trick / 'light cause' to ease more of electorate into voting Sinn Fein.
Tough job.

Sinn Fein voter base was always working class men. They won't vote for radical feminists or trendy liberals who spend their days talking about "period poverty" and transgender rights. They won't vote at all if thats what on offer. Funnily if you look at the figures, massive amount of female SF councillors lost seats.

I would agree there is many who like SFs IRA past. I'd know a fair few who would be supporter of the Provos campaign but not the Sinn Fein party, especially now. Most would be fairly disappointed with Sinn Fein now, and many wouldn't vote for them anymore.

Fan of Netflix

rossie1977 wrote: »

Go to the cemeteries and see the €10-20k headstones erected in recent years.

Travellers have the most expensive headstones and what about their employment rate......:pac:

Eric Cartman

jm08 wrote: »

McHugh came from nowhere whereas Casey just came 2nd in a high profile Presidential election.

Casey came from literally bottom of the tavle in that presidential election to 23% of the country voting for him under the basis of a handful of comments on those specific issues, the memory of which kept him 5th in a 4 seater EU election, its clearly an issue that the irish electorate want tackled, the green party has been saying the same things for years , mchugh added little to their policy stance, RTE hype her and leo goes ‘ohh we’ll get right on that’ , as pat leahy said “9 in 10 people did not vote for the greens” , whereas 23% of people and 80,000 people in MNW did vote for casey

gormdubhgorm

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Sinn Fein voter base was always working class men. They won't vote for radical feminists or trendy liberals who spend their days talking about "period poverty" and transgender rights. They won't vote at all if thats what on offer. Funnily if you look at the figures, massive amount of female SF councillors lost seats.

I would agree there is many who like SFs IRA past. I'd know a fair few who would be supporter of the Provos campaign but not the Sinn Fein party, especially now. Most would be fairly disappointed with Sinn Fein now, and many wouldn't vote for them anymore.

I had to do an internet search of what 'period poverty' meant.
Maybe it means a return to periods of poverty in the past like the slums of the early 20th Century in Dublin? (I naively thought )

If the likes of me don't know those new trendy terms, god knows what the Sinn Fein voter base make of it.

eagle eye

gmisk wrote:

I dont see anything about a fake story. I can see in that cringey "90s" video she mentioned Mary Robinson being elected as the first female president...what was the story? What is the story full of lies? Can you give me the gist?

She remembers being do proud when we elected our first female President.
She was 3 years old.

is_that_so

eagle eye wrote: »

She remembers being do proud when we elected our first female President.
She was 3 years old.

I have memories going back to before I was three and I'm sure many others do as well. It doesn't make them lies.

Fan of Netflix

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I had to do an internet search of what 'period poverty' meant.
Maybe it means a return to periods of poverty in the past like the slums of the early 20th Century in Dublin? (I naively thought )

If the likes of me don't know those new trendy terms, god knows what the Sinn Fein voter base make of it.

One of the Sinn Fein councillors and Ard Comhairle members, who lost her seat, Sarah Holland mentioned it the other day. How her and Lynn Boylan won't be able to fight for "period poverty" now they lost their seats. Then they wonder why Sinn Fein base don't turn out.....:rolleyes:

eagle eye

rossie1977 wrote:

Drive the country roads and see the huge houses going up or the huge houses already up with 3-4 big cars sitting outside.
Go to the cemeteries and see the €10-20k headstones erected in recent years.
The planes are full leaving and returning to Ireland of people clearly going or coming on holidays. The hotel prices are insane regardless where you go in Ireland even on a Tuesday/Wednesday night.

Not saying everyone has money but many have and they are spending it.

Yeah people must be back borrowing like crazy or else something is wrong with me.
I don't have a lot of money and I earn more than most of those I know. None of them have that much either. I earn 70k, wife brings home 12k. I have very little. Might sneak a holiday in every two years, I'm not saving much. I have two cars that are over ten years old. My mortgage is approx 750 per month.

irishash

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Casey came from literally bottom of the tavle in that presidential election to 23% of the country voting for him under the basis of a handful of comments on those specific issues, the memory of which kept him 5th in a 4 seater EU election, its clearly an issue that the irish electorate want tackled, the green party has been saying the same things for years , mchugh added little to their policy stance, RTE hype her and leo goes ‘ohh we’ll get right on that’ , as pat leahy said “9 in 10 people did not vote for the greens” , whereas 23% of people and 80,000 people in MNW did vote for casey

Peter Casey ran for election in MNW which included regions that voted the highest for him during the presidential election. He got an average of 26% (rounded up). This time around he got 9% of first preferences.

A lot of people took the presidential result as a protest against government policy rather than against Higgins. They took the result as an aberration. Looking at the stats from this election, they were right. Less than 1 in 10 people in 1/3 of the country wanted him to hold office.

He is not relevant enough nor are his policies for the government to change tact.

charlie14

irishash wrote: »

Long post – apologies

As always with any Irish election process there is a huge amount of data out there to be analysed. First off I do not consider the local election results to be any kind of reliable indicator of where voter minds are at. FF have always (generally) ruled the roost in local government regardless of what was happening nationally. Instead lets look at the Euro vote patterns.

Take the First Preference votes breakdown (nationwide): FG - 29.6, FF - 16.5, SF - 11.7, Greens - 11.4, Labour - 3.1, PBP - 2.3 and Independents/I4C/Other - 25.3.

I would take this as being a good indicator of the current standing of the main parties heading into the next General Election. If that kind of preference is duplicated during a GE, then you would see a coalition between FG and Greens a real possibility (and one the electorate may go for). FG have the chance now to take real policy changes that address what they have been hearing on the doorstep – Housing (esp the shared living plan), environment issues, insurance costs and the Baliey affair, Childrens hospital and the broadband infrastructure plan. Taking all those issues into account, the FP stats make good reading.

On the other hand the FF vote either did not come out to play or the polls have overestimated their standing. 16.5% is a terrible result for them on a national level. The last RedC poll (23rd April) had them on 23% and on May 10th the IT/Ipsos MRBI poll had them on 26%. If anything these polls need to be looked at rather than the exit poll. If that result is duplicated in a GE, they would lose about 15-20% of their TD’s, with many going to the Greens or FG.

SF at 11.7% need to decide what they stand for – Are they a real alternative to Labour, or the new PD’s. One of the main issues they have always had is that they have played the role of botherer for the government in place for the past 10 years and did well out of it. They hit gold with the water charges and working class issues, but their policies have not been very clear where they lie. Now that the political landscape has calmed a little bit since the problems of 2008 onwards, they need to plant the mast somewhere and stick to it.

The GP rise, in my opinion, is down to the increased media profile of climate issues recently. The likes of Greta Thunberg has done Green Parties around the world a lot of good in getting young people energised about these important issues. Is it a flash in the pan? If they have learned their lesson from the mid-2000’s, maybe they can push on. Although that would mean they would stay well away from government in the next Dail.

Aside from all that the independent vote still alludes me – I have been saying for years that they will disappear into the shadows each election cycle, but still they maintain their patch.

I would tend to look to the local election results as more of an indicator of possible GE vote share than the EU elections.

With European elections it appears to be more to do with candidate name recognition, showbiz razzamatazza with a bit of European interest, (such as presently Brexit), thrown in, whereas with local elections it is more to do with national issues that impact locally.

The 2014 local elections virtually mirrored the result of the 2018 GE. Now in 2019 for both FF and FG that vote share hasn`t changed in the local elections and I would have no reason at present to see any great change from vote share for either changing in the short space of time between now and the next GE.

2016 GE FG fought the election on the basis of an economic recovery, but neglected national issues that were effecting and angering voters locally. You yourself identified some of the issues that have the very likely potential to do the same come the next GE. Issues like housing, homelessness, rent increases, health,the Childrens hospital, broadband, Bailey`s sense of entitlement etc. where with a GE imminent FG are quickly running out of time on

Edit.
You mentioned a Red C poll (23rd April) and a MRBI poll (May 10th.) where FF were at 23% and 26% respectively that if mirrored in a GE would result in them losing 15% - 20% of their seats. With them having their current number of seats from a 24.3% share of the vote in the 2016 GE I do not see how that adds up.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Politics is all about seats.

In the European elections, the only party to lose seats was Sinn Fein. In the local elections, the only parties to lose seats were Sinn Fein and PBP/Solidarity.

Why?

The politics of protest have run out of steam? People in jobs want to keep them? Things are slowly getting better? Who wants to hear incessant noise about a border poll? Foghorn politics is no longer relevant?

Funny conversion there.
A few days ago...it was all about 'vote share'.

gmisk

eagle eye wrote: »

She remembers being do proud when we elected our first female President.
She was 3 years old.

Er seriously if that is all the scandal and "lies" you can dig up from her you are really struggling

L1011

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah, check out the number of people taken off jobseekers and Putin courses where they get paid the same or slightly more money, still paid by the state of course.

Numbers are tiny and they still appear on the live register

irishash

charlie14 wrote: »

I would tend to look to the local election results as more of an indicator of possible GE vote share than the EU elections.

With European elections it appears to be more to do with candidate name recognition, showbiz razzamatazza with a bit of European interest, (such as presently Brexit), thrown in, whereas with local elections it is more to do with national issues that impact locally.

The 2014 local elections virtually mirrored the result of the 2018 GE. Now in 2019 for both FF and FG that vote share hasn`t changed in the local elections and I would have no reason at present to see any great change from vote share for either changing in the short space of time between now and the next GE.

2016 GE FG fought the election on the basis of an economic recovery, but neglected national issues that were effecting and angering voters locally. You yourself identified some of the issues that have the very likely potential to do the same come the next GE. Issues like housing, homelessness, rent increases, health,the Childrens hospital, broadband, Bailey`s sense of entitlement etc. where with a GE imminent FG are quickly running out of time on

I agree with you on many things you have said. However, my analysis of Local Elections is more that people tend to look upon those positions as not that big a deal - "Sean there from down the road is looking for a council seat. No harm to let him try".

But when we get to a national stage, they are not so inclined to let any tom, dick or harry to have a go. Stakes are higher. There is no doubt in my mind there are places where this does not follow (Kerry for one) but overall I think the trend is correct.

The 2016 GE should have been a slam dunk for FG but 2 things screwed them - Water charges and the wrong message for re-election (yes there were other issues, but these are the big two). They stuck to their guns on both and paid the price. FG now have at least 4-5 months I would say to address the issues this election has raised. If they dont, then I would follow your analysis, but if they do (and only an idiot party would not) then they could do quite well.

The last government did not have this kind of lead-in to an election - It could well turn out to be a godsend for them (as it should for all the parties)

Wrongway1985

is_that_so wrote: »

I have memories going back to before I was three and I'm sure many others do as well. It doesn't make them lies.

She wasnt even in the country though don't think she moved here till the mid nineties doubt who the president of Ireland was, was of ongoing coverage in the states and a stretch to suggest far reaching a 3 year old. What a Fine Gael candidate is openly showering a Labour president for praise is a bit odd.

So an Irish president resonating with a 3 year old residing in the USA or a bluffer? I'm inclined to go with total bluffer!

is_that_so

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

She wasnt even in the country though don't think she moved here till the mid nineties doubt who the president of Ireland was, was of ongoing coverage in the states and a stretch to suggest far reaching a 3 year old. What a Fine Gael candidate is openly showering a Labour president for praise is a bit odd.

So an Irish president resonating with a 3 year old residing in the USA or a bluffer? I'm inclined to go with total bluffer!

Could just as well have been her channeling the parents and Robinson is Mayo-born. She was also the first female President, which is a very big deal. Anyway lots of three year-olds have stories and that's really all they are.

irishash

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

She wasnt even in the country though don't think she moved here till the mid nineties doubt who the president of Ireland was, was of ongoing coverage in the states and a stretch to suggest far reaching a 3 year old. What a Fine Gael candidate is openly showering a Labour president for praise is a bit odd.

Presidents are non-party affiliated and do not represent anybody but the people of Ireland while in office. Yes they can be nominated by a party, but they do not get elected on a party basis.

You only have to look at situations like Hilary v Haughey for a classic example of a president acting on behalf of the country.

charlie14

irishash wrote: »

I agree with you on many things you have said. However, my analysis of Local Elections is more that people tend to look upon those positions as not that big a deal - "Sean there from down the road is looking for a council seat. No harm to let him try".

But when we get to a national stage, they are not so inclined to let any tom, dick or harry to have a go. Stakes are higher. There is no doubt in my mind there are places where this does not follow (Kerry for one) but overall I think the trend is correct.

The 2016 GE should have been a slam dunk for FG but 2 things screwed them - Water charges and the wrong message for re-election (yes there were other issues, but these are the big two). They stuck to their guns on both and paid the price. FG now have at least 4-5 months I would say to address the issues this election has raised. If they dont, then I would follow your analysis, but if they do (and only an idiot party would not) then they could do quite well.

The last government did not have this kind of lead-in to an election - It could well turn out to be a godsend for them (as it should for all the parties)

The only national issue this EU election has raised is the environmental issue. How that plays out in a GE is an unknown, but however it plays out I cannot see FG (or any other party) stealing the clothes of votes from the Greens with such a short lead in.
AS to the other issues I mentioned that are out there the same short lead in will also apply as to the ability to do anything about them.


I edited late, so you most likely missed the point I made on your 15% - 20% seats loss for FF in seats based on those two opinion polls you mentioned.

jm08

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Casey came from literally bottom of the tavle in that presidential election to 23% of the country voting for him under the basis of a handful of comments on those specific issues, the memory of which kept him 5th in a 4 seater EU election, its clearly an issue that the irish electorate want tackled, the green party has been saying the same things for years , mchugh added little to their policy stance, RTE hype her and leo goes ‘ohh we’ll get right on that’ , as pat leahy said “9 in 10 people did not vote for the greens” , whereas 23% of people and 80,000 people in MNW did vote for casey

He got loads of exposure through campaigning for Co. Council support to appearing on a couple of tv programmes (apart from already having a media profile from the Dragons Den). McHugh litterly had a few minutes in one tv debate.


So, thats twice Casey has failed to get elected (even in a 4 seater constituency).

Wrongway1985

is_that_so wrote: »

Could just as well have been her channeling the parents and Robinson is Mayo-born. She was also the first female President, which is a very big deal. Anyway lots of three year-olds have stories and that's really all they are.

I'm 2 years younger than her I only know now what a big deal a female president was but didn't dawn on me at the time as far as I was concerned it was the norm as I didn't know any different but there ya go.

is_that_so

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

I'm 2 years younger than her I only know now what a big deal a female president was but didn't dawn on me at the time as far as I was concerned it was the norm as I didn't know any different but there ya go.

I have memories of famous people from a very young age because my parents talked about them and they seemed important to them and by extension to me. They do say that the age between 2-5 is where we form the core of our personality.

osarusan

I'd be willing to believe she has no memory of it at all, although she may remember some of Robinson's first term as president. I don't care either.

It's a ham-fisted attempt to create a tenuous link between a vote for her and the election of our first female president. A bit silly to do it when it's so easy to check how old she would have been. Maybe she'll get better at making up her stories.

But it doesn't qualify as any kind of scandal at all in my opinion. Politicians claim to remember stuff all the time, claim to meet people they never met all the time.

markodaly

cruizer101 wrote: »

so yeah maybe a month :eek:

Again, I was rounded on for the second time yesterday when I mentioned eVoting or some electronic method of scanning paper ballots.

'Sure what's the problem if it takes a few days to fix...'

Well, this is the problem right here, the fact we could be waiting a fecking month to see who takes the final seats in an election.

'But sure its grand..'

osarusan

With regard to Casey, the Presidential Election could easily be portrayed as a success of sorts for him, given his figures compared to far more established political figures.

Not easy at all to portray this campaign as a success though. Maybe he thought the presidential campaign would keep him in people's minds or whatever, but it didn't work out for him. He has the option as running for TD, but I don't know whether FF, or any other party, would be that interested. And it's a lot of hard work on the ground that I don't think he has much interest in doing.

Wrongway1985

irishash wrote: »

Presidents are non-party affiliated and do not represent anybody but the people of Ireland while in office. Yes they can be nominated by a party, but they do not get elected on a party basis.

I know,all the same look at our current president detached himself for Labour when he ran you could suggest at an unpopular time for Labour it helped to do so.