All Weather Winter Warmer

Mostly Harmless

Variance is variance, in or around 30% ROI is a bit higher than can reasonably be expected over a long period

themandan6611

Aurora1966 wrote: »

Saying that I've been following you over a cliff of late.

you should have started last Saturday week, approx 3pts @16/1, sure if you had that you could buy a pillow for the fall over the cliff

Mostly Harmless

-13pts today

Totals
Staked 553.50
Returned 711.37
P/L 157.87
ROI 28.52%

STB.

Keep at it Mostly Harmless.


To my detriment I missed out on your Bellick suggestion the other night and I check ! Just didn't see it on the same line as another e/w pick in the same race.

My NAP of Friday night was Ar Saoirse, whose neck defeat by Bellick I put down to Oisin Orr's inability to keep the horse in a straight line in the last half furlong despite being well clear. Of course it all became clear that something else was at play.... And the reverse f/c ? €133.

I only have you to blame!

Mostly Harmless

STB. wrote: »

Keep at it Mostly Harmless.


To my detriment I missed out on your Bellick suggestion the other night and I check ! Just didn't see it on the same line as another e/w pick in the same race.

My NAP of Friday night was Ar Saoirse, whose neck defeat by Bellick I put down to Oisin Orr's inability to keep the horse in a straight line in the last half furlong despite being well clear. Of course it all became clear that something else was at play.... And the reverse f/c ? €133.

I only have you to blame!

Think Oisin Orr going a bit too fast and not getting home was the main cause but will take any credit I can get!

Mostly Harmless

Three today:
7.30 Kempton: Knight Crusader (5/1 BV, Boyles) 2pts EW
8.00 Kempton: Schindlers Ark (14/1 BV, Paddy) 1.5pts EW
8.30 Kempton: Mr Frankie (10/1 Paddy, BV, Hills) 2pts EW

Aurora1966

I love this thread to be fair, much better than can the book be beaten, here for a year by Del, he really is a terrible tipster. Random picks with no method it's laughable.

Mostly Harmless

Aurora1966 wrote: »

I love this thread to be fair, much better than can the book be beaten, here for a year by Del, he really is a terrible tipster. Random picks with no method it's laughable.

Just good variance here for the most part, few big priced winners along the way have helped push the figures up the way and could easily be a lot less profit without that.

I am not making any claims to be some sort of super punter or have inside information. No guarantees of profit and if anyone does follow these then do so at your own risk, certainly would not encourage people to be going crazy on them. Don't see the need to compare this with any other threads on here either.

CH3OH

7.30 Kempton: Knight Crusader (5/1 BV, Boyles) 2pts EW

Nice Winner thanks
keep it going!

IAMAMORON

Another winner. Great picks.

STB.

On Fire tonight.

2nd one beaten a length but e/w money.

I noticed the first and last picks are 2 point each way, which means they were certainties ..... With the first in at 11/2 and a potential SP of 14/1 on Mr Frankie in the second leg, well.......I'll stop!

(incidentally the horse that has been backed heavily in the race, from 10's into 9/2 in the last race is Murhib and is trained by Lydia Richards who hasn't had a winner since 1/4/16)

themandan6611

CH3OH wrote: »

7.30 Kempton: Knight Crusader (5/1 BV, Boyles) 2pts EW

Nice Winner thanks
keep it going!

Great ride from Kirby must be said

Mostly Harmless

+11.9pts today

Totals
Staked 564.50
Returned 734.27
P/L 169.77
ROI 30.07%

Mostly Harmless

Look like having a lot of bets today, will update once I have got the bets on myself.

Mostly Harmless

Massive day of racing (at Southwell):
1.45 Southwell: Big Amigo (20/1 Paddy, 365, Hills) 3pts EW
2.25 Southwell: Black Noah (25/1 Paddy) 2pts EW
3.05 Southwell: The Great Wall (4/1 Generally) 1.5pts Win
4.25 Southwell: Bluella (28/1 365, BV) 1pt EW
5.00 Southwell: Going Native (16/1 Ladbrokes, Coral paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW

Mostly Harmless

Wolverhampton bets some time this afternoon

tipptom

See Cromwell has two over to Southwell.

The one in the last (apprentice race) amadeus is a big drifter 5/2-5/1.

The last time it won was around this time last year over todays grade and distance at todays track for Richard Fahey by 9 lengths.

It hasn't raced on the all weather since.

STB.

Just remarkable picking 16/1 that Going Native.

Sluiced up. Ta!

Mostly Harmless

Got out of a bit of a hole there, shame to have thrown away some decent stakes on sh1te but thats the nature of the game

Mostly Harmless

Wolverhampton bets:
5.45 Wolverhampton: The Establishment (11/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, BV) 1pt Win
6.45 Wolverhampton: Rock Up In Style (20/1 Paddy) 1pt EW
7.15 Wolverhampton: Oxygenic (16/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
8.15 Wolverhampton: Rubensian (12/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW

Mostly Harmless

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Wolverhampton bets:
5.45 Wolverhampton: The Establishment (11/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, BV) 1pt Win
6.45 Wolverhampton: Rock Up In Style (20/1 Paddy) 1pt EW
7.15 Wolverhampton: Oxygenic (16/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
8.15 Wolverhampton: Rubensian (12/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW

The Establishment bet should be EW, sorry in a rush.

5.45 Wolverhampton: The Establishment (11/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, BV) 1pt EW

2ndcoming

Boom. Sex machine

STB.

MH You keep those 20/1 and 16/1 shots coming, Rock Up in Style goes in 645

Cherry_Cola

Who needs Cheltenham eh?

Mostly Harmless

Done alright.

+30.3pts today

Totals
Staked 592.00
Returned 792.07
P/L 200.07
ROI 33.80%

Mostly Harmless

While everyone else is trying to make it pay betting into markets that have been knocked into line for the last 11 months at Cheltenham, I have two bets at Lingfield:

2:35 Lingfield: Royal Mezyan (16/1 Generally) 2pts EW
5:15 Lingfield: Tebay (66/1 Paddy) 1.5pts EW

PhuckHugh2

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

While everyone else is trying to make it pay betting into markets that have been knocked into line for the last 11 months at Cheltenham

Bit of an unnecessary dig there. I thought you were better than that tbh.
There is quite a number of significant market moves on the day of races on markets that have been knocked into line for that long. Plenty of value to be had in the handicaps if you look in the right places.

Best of luck with the bets.

Mostly Harmless

Some of the most efficient markets going and not really a subjective matter, yeah there's great value with extra places and specials and what not but I hate it so my opinion is far from unbiased, if it's your cup of tea then fair enough, it's not mine

idnkph

PhuckHugh2 wrote:

Bit of an unnecessary dig there.

It was hardly a dig. Jayzus! Don't be so sensitive and enjoy the buzz of the winners and losers. X

Mostly Harmless

Was not a dig but let's not get into it, not like this place needs another thread for Cheltenham talk!

irish_major

Sensational picking yesterday and holy moleys that fella looks like some pick in the 2.35 by you. Watched his last few races after I saw your tip for him. GL

PhuckHugh2

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Some of the most efficient markets going and not really a subjective matter, yeah there's great value with extra places and specials and what not but I hate it so my opinion is far from unbiased, if it's your cup of tea then fair enough, it's not mine

Fair enough. Not saying the markets are not efficient but it is at least easier to get a bet on.
Trying to find someone that will take a 50 each way on a 12/1+ shot on the AW is like trying to crack to Enigma code.

Mostly Harmless

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

Fair enough. Not saying the markets are not efficient but it is at least easier to get a bet on.
Trying to find someone that will take a 50 each way on a 12/1+ shot on the AW is like trying to crack to Enigma code.

It's really not that hard provided you're not betting massive standout arbs. I have very few accounts to work with and manage to get on fine between exchanges and in shop.

PhuckHugh2

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

It's really not that hard provided you're not betting massive standout arbs. I have very few accounts to work with and manage to get on fine between exchanges and in shop.

Fair enough.
Just checked the one good account i have left and i can get 24.99 each way and 4.62 each way on the selections for today.
I would need to go to a shop. Which isnt really ideal but is an option. Anyway didnt mean to derail the thread. Carry on. Best of luck with the runners today.

Mostly Harmless

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

Fair enough.
Just checked the one good account i have left and i can get 24.99 each way and 4.62 each way on the selections for today.
I would need to go to a shop. Which isnt really ideal but is an option. Anyway didnt mean to derail the thread. Carry on. Best of luck with the runners today.

That's not a good account

STB.

When your account is marked, time to open another one or get someone else to who has no interest in gambling or is trustworthy.

Only wrecking your own head otherwise.

Mostly Harmless

Apologies for mentioning jump racing in here, will do my best to make sure it does not happen again. Two bets at Kempton:

5.45 Kempton: Navajo Star (18/1 365, Coral, BV) 1.5pts EW
6.45 Kempton: Bug Boy (6/1 Paddy, Ladbrokes) 2.5pts EW


Earlier posted bets at Lingfield:

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

2:35 Lingfield: Royal Mezyan (16/1 Generally) 2pts EW
5:15 Lingfield: Tebay (66/1 Paddy) 1.5pts EW

Mostly Harmless

Stinker yesterday with all bets never looking likely to get involved really, would have done better at Cheltenham.

-15pts

Totals
Staked 607.00
Returned 792.07
P/L 185.07
ROI 30.49%

Mostly Harmless

Today's stuff at Southwell under the lights:
5.55 Southwell: Dream Ally (18/1 Ladbrokes paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW / Fortinbrass (Ladbrokes paying 4 places 1/5) 0.5pts EW
7.00 Southwell: Arzaak (10/1 Ladbrokes, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW
8.00 Southwell: Katie Gale (12/1 Generally) 1pt EW
8.30 Southwell: Muqarred (25/1 Generally) 1pt Win / Baron Run (16/1 Generally) 1pt Win

Mostly Harmless

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Today's stuff at Southwell under the lights:
5.55 Southwell: Dream Ally (18/1 Ladbrokes paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW / Fortinbrass (Ladbrokes paying 4 places 1/5) 0.5pts EW
7.00 Southwell: Arzaak (10/1 Ladbrokes, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW
8.00 Southwell: Katie Gale (12/1 Generally) 1pt EW
8.30 Southwell: Muqarred (25/1 Generally) 1pt Win / Baron Run (16/1 Generally) 1pt Win

Going to top up the stake on Katie Gale now that Seasearch is out and we are down to the 8 runners.


8.00 Southwell: Katie Gale (11/1 Coral, BV, Hills) 1pt EW

Mostly Harmless

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Going to top up the stake on Katie Gale now that Seasearch is out and we are down to the 8 runners.


8.00 Southwell: Katie Gale (11/1 Coral, BV, Hills) 1pt EW

Down to 7 now predictably/unfortunately, not in love with the bet but what's done is done

Mostly Harmless

-8.2pts yesterday

Totals
Staked 619.00
Returned 795.87
P/L 176.87
ROI 28.57%

Mostly Harmless

Lingfield Bets:
2.20 Lingfield: Dashing Poet (7/2 Generally) 3pts Win
4.20 Lingfield: Warning Fire (8/1 BV, 365) 2pts EW

Few bets at Chelmsford and Dundalk to follow later once I get my head straight

Mostly Harmless

Dashing Poet got no luck in running, annoying.

Dundalk bets:
5.15 Dundalk: De Latour (10/1 Generally) 1pt EW
6.15 Dundalk: Alcander (4/1 365, Paddy, BV) 2pts EW
6.45 Dundalk: Poitin (25/1 365) 1pt EW
7.15 Dundalk: Festina Plente (8/1 BV, Coral) 1.5pts EW
7.45 Dundalk: Hey Pretty (11/1 365) 1.5pts Win / Very Smart (22/1 365, BV, Boyles) 1pt Win
8.15 Dundalk: Koybig (16/1 Generally) 1pt EW

Mostly Harmless

Winner alright with second one at Lingfield.

Chelmsford bets:
4.40 Chelmsford: Vallarta (25/1 Generally) 1pt EW
6.00 Chelmsford: Zipedeedodah (25/1 Generally) 0.5pt EW
6.30 Chelmsford: King Robert (6/1 365, BV) 2.5pts EW
7.30 Chelmsford: Glory Awaits (22/1 365, BV) 1.5pts EW

yaboya1

Absolutely no interest in all weather racing, but this is an excellent thread.
Keep up the good work!

Mostly Harmless

+12.7pts today with two winners

Totals
Staked 652.50
Returned 842.07
P/L 189.57
ROI 29.05%

Mostly Harmless

I see Zipedeedodah was actually withdrawn before start and that's not accounted for in above figures, will sort it out tomorrow

Mostly Harmless

No bets today and no AW racing till Friday and then the turf is starting after that so not many bets left in this thread probably.

Mostly Harmless

Seriously boring week, one ante post bet for the Irish Lincoln on Sunday - yes I know it's not AW but said I would go until the Lincoln at Doncaster and I have to bet on something like, no idea if this runs or not so caution advised.

Naas, Sunday 24th March, Irish Lincoln Handicap: Crownthorpe (14/1 Paddy) 1pt EW